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NCAA Hockey Bracketology: February 10, 2014

Updates on the road to Philly

By Brian F.
via https://www.facebook.com/BostonCollegeAthletics

Your obligatory NCAA Men's Hockey Tournament update because ...

Let's take a look at where BC would end up in the National Tournament if the season ended today.

First, the ground rules.

Sixteen teams make the tournament. Each conference tournament champion receives an automatic bid. Interestingly, there's one more of those this year with the creation of the Big Ten Hockey Conference and resulting CCHA/WCHA reshuffle. The remaining 10 programs receive at-large berths. Those 10 bids go to the top 10 teams in the PWR.

For the purposes of this bracket, we'll assume the team with the top PWR rating earns the conference's auto-bid.

Step 1: Pick the 16 tournament teams

1. Boston College - Hockey East champ
2. Minnesota - Big Ten champ
3. Union - ECAC champ
4. Ferris State - WCHA champ
5. Quinnipiac
6. Massachusetts-Lowell
7. Wisconsin
8. St. Cloud State - NCHC champ
9. Cornell
10. Michigan
11. Providence
12. Northeastern
13. Vermont
14. Minnesota-Duluth
15. Colgate
16. Air Force - AHA champ
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46. Boston University

Bubble teams (in order): Maine, North Dakota, Yale, Clarkson, Notre Dame

By conference: Hockey East 5, ECAC 4, Big Ten 3, NCHC 2, Atlantic Hockey 1, WCHA 1

Step 2: Assign the seeds

No. 1 seeds: Boston College, Minnesota, Union, Ferris State
No. 2 seeds: Quinnipiac, Massachusetts-Lowell, Wisconsin, St. Cloud State
No. 3 seeds: Cornell, Michigan, Providence, Northeastern
No. 4 seeds: Vermont, Minnesota-Duluth, Colgate, Air Force

Step 3: Place host teams in regionals

This year's four regional hosts are Yale / Fairfield (East in Bridgeport), Holy Cross (Northeast in Worcester), Miami (Ohio) (Midwest in Cincinnati) and Minnesota (West in Saint Paul). Only Minnesota is currently in the tournament field at this point. Minnesota is slotted into the West Regional.

Step 4: Place number 1 seeds in Regionals

Number 1 seeds are placed based on proximity to regional site.

No. 1 Boston College is placed in the Northeast Regional in Worcester.
No. 2 Minnesota is placed in the West Regional in Minneapolis.
No. 3 Union is placed in the East Regional in Bridgeport.
No. 4 Ferris State is placed in the Midwest Regional in Cincinnati.

Pretty straightforward here.

Step 5: Place the other 12 teams avoiding intra-conference match ups if possible. Begin by filling each bracket by banding groups. Remember that teams are not assigned to the regional closest to their campus sites by ranking order within the banding.

If this is the case, then the committee should seed so that the quarterfinals are seeded such that the four regional championships are played by No. 1 v. No. 8, No. 2 v. No. 7, No. 3 v. No. 6 and No. 4 v. No. 5.

Number 2 seeds:

No. 8 St. Cloud State is placed in No. 1 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast.
No. 7 Wisconsin is placed in No. 2 Minnesota's Regional, the West.
No. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell is placed in No. 3 Union's Regional, the East.
No. 5 Quinnipiac is placed in No. 4 Ferris State's Regional, the Midwest.

Number 3 seeds:

No. 9 Cornell is placed in No. 8 St. Cloud State's Regional, the Northeast.
No. 10 Michigan is placed in No. 7 Wisconsin's Regional, the West.
No. 11 Providence is placed in No. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell's Regional, the East.
No. 12 Northeastern is placed in No. 5 Quinnipiac's Regional, the Midwest.

Number 4 seeds:

No. 13 Vermont is placed in No. 4 Ferris State's Regional, the Midwest.
No. 14 Minnesota-Duluth is placed in No. 3 Union's Regional, the East.
No. 15 Colgate is placed in No. 2 Minnesota's Regional, the West.
No. 16 Air Force is placed in No. 1 Boston College's Regional, the Northeast.

Our bracket as we have it set up:

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusetts)
1 Boston College vs. 16 Air Force
8 St. Cloud State vs. 9 Cornell

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati, Ohio)
4 Ferris State vs. 13 Vermont
5 Quinnipiac vs. 12 Northeastern

West Regional (Saint Paul, Minnesota)
2 Minnesota vs. 15 Colgate
7 Wisconsin vs. 10 Michigan

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
3 Union vs. 14 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 11 Providence

After initially populating the bracket, the NCAA then looks to avoid intra-conference matchups. The above bracket has two such intra-conference conflicts -- Lowell-Providence in the East and Wisconsin-Michigan out west. Flipping Michigan for Providence fixes this.

Our bracket as we have it set up now:

Northeast Regional (Worcester, Massachusetts)
1 Boston College vs. 16 Air Force
8 St. Cloud State vs. 9 Cornell

Midwest Regional (Cincinnati, Ohio)
4 Ferris State vs. 13 Vermont
5 Quinnipiac vs. 12 Northeastern

West Regional (Saint Paul, Minnesota)
2 Minnesota vs. 15 Colgate
7 Wisconsin vs. 11 Providence

East Regional (Bridgeport, Connecticut)
3 Union vs. 14 Minnesota-Duluth
6 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 10 Michigan

Finally, the NCAA looks at ways of boosting attendance by tweaking programs within each band. This field has BC and Cornell in the Northeast, Ferris State in the Midwest, Minnesota and Wisconsin in the West and Union and Lowell in the East.

Again, the Midwest Regional is gonna take a hit, but I'm not sure there's a easy tweak to solve this. The committee couldn't swap Michigan for either Northeastern or Providence as that would create another all-HEA first round matchup in Bridgeport. I suppose the committee could reshuffle all the teams on the 3 line -- sending Cornell to the East, Northeastern to the West, Providence to the Northeast and Michigan to the Midwest. Seems like a lot of movement to help attendance for a regional that has struggled mightily to fill the arena the past few years.

Let's leave this as is for now. This is an ideal draw for BC -- the Atlantic Hockey champ followed by SCSU/Cornell ... in Worcester -- and a big reason why it's imperative for the program to hold onto that #1 overall seed. With several strong programs lurking right around the cut line, the difference between drawing the AHA champ and the #15 could be very significant this year.

Projected Final Four: BC, Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Lowell

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