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GRaNT Rankings Forecast: Expect Tight Games All Weekend At Kelley Rink

BC women vs. St. Lawrence, BC men vs. Vermont both project to be extremely close

John Quackenbos, BC Athletics

Did you get your fill of overtime in the last few weeks, between BC women’s hockey’s three overtimes last weekend, and the two overtime games between BC and Vermont three weeks ago?

Well, if the GRaNT computer rankings are to be believed, you might want to buckle up and get ready for more overtime hockey.

Our own Grant Salzano built out a computer ranking system that uses goal differential throughout the season to project the score of any game between two teams in men’s or women’s college hockey. You can click the above link to get in to the weeds of the math.

Based on his rankings, BC men vs. Vermont and BC women vs. St. Lawrence are about as close a matchup as you can possibly find.

On the men’s side, BC’s GRaNT ranking is 151.00 - 13th in the nation. Vermont’s is 152.40 - #12. (An average team will be rated at 100.00. #1 Denver’s rating is 220.80; #55 UMass’s is 60.46).

Based on the goal ratio of each team’s games throughout the season, the projected score of a game between Vermont and BC is 2.9-2.8 in favor of the Catamounts. This series truly is a toss-up.

GRaNT projections for the other men’s HEA quarterfinal series:

#5 UMass-Lowell 3.9 vs. #31 UNH 2.3
#4 BU 3.3 vs. #14 Northeastern 2.7
#6 Notre Dame 2.7 vs. #7 Providence 2.6

The Notre Dame-Providence series is projected to be as tight as BC-UVM. BU-NU is also fairly close, while Lowell is projected to be a clear favorite over UNH.

On the women’s side, BC-SLU is also an incredibly close matchup.

The Eagles are ranked #5 (195.48) to St. Lawrence’s #4 (198.03). The projected score of a BC-SLU game is 2.4-2.4. Obviously, that can’t happen so.... hypothetical endless mathematical OT?

Appropriately, the 4/5 matchup is the tightest projected game in the women’s NCAA tournament quarterfinals. Your other projections:

#1 Wisconsin 4.2 vs. #17 Robert Morris 0.7
#3 Minnesota Duluth 2.5 vs. #6 Minnesota 2.3
#2 Clarkson 2.7 vs. #9 Cornell 1.8

We’ll see how accurate these projections look once the weekend is over. But for now, expect lots of drama all weekend long at Conte Forum.