2013 Frozen Four: NCAA Hockey Bracketology: March 23, 2013

Much more on whatever that was last night. While you wait, let's take a look at the National Tournament picture with one day to go. Sioux Sports' Jim Dahl is out with his Saturday morning update, providing some clarity to the NCAA Tournament picture. Here are the Eagles' seeding probabilities after Saturday night's loss:

#4 24.6%
#5 67.2%
#6 8.2%
Tournament invites: 100.0%

Almost incredibly, BC still has roughly a 1/4 chance of landing one of the tournament's final no. 1 seeds, which would likely send the Eagles to Manchester and the Northeast Regional. Despite losses in each's respective conference tournament, Quinnipiac and Minnesota are locked into the tournament's top 2 seeds. With Mercyhurst and Canisius battling for the Atlantic Hockey auto-bid, QU is now locked into a first round matchup against the Mercyhurst/Canisius winner, as either would be the lowest ranked team in the tournament. Whether that matchup happens in Providence or elsewhere depends on whether Brown wins the ECAC title.

If the Bears win the ECAC title, they'll host the East Regional as the tournament's #14-15 seed, sending Quinnipiac out of the East Regional (and most likely the Northeast Regional in Manchester). That would pave the way for the final one seed to face Brown in the first round of the East Regional. Miami clinches a one-seed with a win in the CCHA Tournament. Boston College needs Lowell to lose tonight for any hope of a 1 seed, which yeah. That's not happening. Tonight we are all River Hawks.

The following teams are in the NCAAs regardless of what happens the rest of the way:

Quinnipiac
Minnesota
Miami
Boston College
UMass-Lowell
North Dakota
New Hampshire
Denver

The following teams still can get in as an at-large:

Yale
Notre Dame
Minnesota St. Mankato
Niagara
St. Cloud State
Western Michigan

The following need to win their conference tournament to get in:

Union / Brown
Colorado College / Wisconsin
Boston University
Ohio State
Michigan
Canisius / Mercyhurst

And the following TUCs have been eliminated from the NCAA Tournament: Providence, Rensselaer, Robert Morris, Connecticut

Here's what the NCAA Tournament looks like as of this morning:

The seeds:

1. Quinnipiac
2. Minnesota
3t. UMass-Lowell
3t. Miami
5. Boston College
6. North Dakota
7. New Hampshire
8t. Notre Dame
8t. Yale
10. Denver
11t. Minnesota State
11t. Niagara
11t. St. Cloud State
14. Union
15. Colorado College / Wisconsin -- WCHA champ
16. Canisius / Mercyhurst -- AHA champ

Bubble teams: Western Michigan, Wisconsin, Boston University

And the projected bracket if the season ended today:

East Regional (Providence, Rhode Island)
1 Quinnipiac vs. 16 Canisius / Mercyhurst
8 Notre Dame vs. 9 Yale

Northeast Regional (Manchester, New Hampshire)
3 UMass-Lowell vs. 15 Wisconsin / Colorado College
7 New Hampshire vs. 10 Denver

West Regional (Grand Rapids, Michigan)
2 Minnesota vs. 14 Union
6 North Dakota vs. 12 Niagara

Midwest Regional (Toledo, Ohio)
4 Miami vs. 13 St. Cloud State
5 Boston College vs. 11 Minnesota State

Will be an interesting 36 hours.