According to the S&P+ Ratings, Boston College (#88 overall, #125 offense, #21 defense) and Maryland (#87 overall, #81 offense, #82 defense) are about as close as you can get for a bowl game...
BC and Maryland are about as closely ranked as it can get...#BCvsMaryland pic.twitter.com/v1wcbmWLbD
— Thomas Greenberg (@BCTommyG) December 15, 2016
So since BC seems to be on the same level as Maryland according to these ratings, I’m taking a look at how Maryland has fared this year against teams similar to Boston College according to the S&P+. If you’re wondering how I determined what made a team “similar” to BC, I basically took all the teams that Maryland played that are within +/-40 of BC in the rankings. Maybe this’ll give some clarity into what’ll happen in a game that nobody can really predict at this point…
Saturday, September 17 @ Central Florida – Maryland 30 – 24
In their first real test of the season Maryland took on a solid Central Florida team on the road and pulled out the overtime win. Central Florida finished the season at 6-6 and ranked 70th in the S&P+ ratings, with a very good defense (#32) and poor offense (#110), kind of like BC. The key here is that Maryland relied totally on the running game in this one. QB Perry Hills only had 127 yards through the air, while their rushing game combined for 246 yards and 4 touchdowns. UCF, meanwhile, did have 195 yards on the ground but relied more so on their QB, who posted a statline of 260 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. Based on this game, Maryland and BC could be in for a close matchup…the Eagles have been able to shut down powerful rushing attacks, like NC State, but have also been unable to move the ball through the air on offense. If Maryland performs like they did in this one, BC could pull out the win with a big defensive game, but could certainly get beat bad if they continue to struggle offensively.
October 1 vs. Purdue – Maryland 50-7
Purdue finished the regular season ranked at 108, 20 spots lower than BC, with a bad offense (#97) and worse defense (#101). In this one, Maryland relied even more on their dominant rushing game, totaling 400 (!!) yards and 2 touchdowns on only 46 attempts. Ty Johnson, arguably their biggest offensive threat this year, literally ran for 200 yards on 7 attempts. That’s insane. Maryland’s defense, meanwhile, held Purdue to merely 10 yards rushing and 195 yards passing. Granted, Purdue is ranked 80 spots lower than BC on defense, but they’re also ranked 28 spots higher on the offensive side of the ball. The takeaway from this game is that if Boston College can’t find a way to stop the Maryland running game, they’ll get stomped out. But if they can, as they’ve done in past games, we could be in for a close, low-scoring affair.
October 22 vs. Michigan State – Maryland 28-17
Michigan State’s struggles this season after being in the College Football Playoff last year have been well-documented nationally. Despite going 3-9 on the season, including this loss to Maryland, the S&P+ still liked their team, putting them at #54, with a #71 offense but #42 defense. In this Maryland win, Perry Hills actually had a decent game with 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, but once again it was Maryland’s rushing game that carried them with 247 yards and 2 tds. Michigan State didn’t do well in the passing game, but carved up Maryland’s rush defense for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns of their own, showing that Maryland’s front line could be broken through. BC did have a much lower ranked offense than Michigan State, but was also 21 spots higher them for defense, so if Mich St. could hold Maryland to 28, BC could do even better behind that top-ranked pass rush and solid run—stopping front 7.
October 29 @ Indiana – Indiana 42-36
Indiana finished the regular season at 6-6 and ranked 48th in the ratings (#66 offense and #30 defense). It was impressive for Maryland to keep it as close as they did, but that was mainly because Perry Hills had one his better games of the year, going for 248 yards and 2 tds. The rushing game for Maryland stayed strong with 269 yards and 3 touchdowns, but Indiana’s was even stronger, as they pounded the rock to the tune of 414 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground. Indiana’s defense is pretty close to BC in the ratings, so it’s concerning that Maryland was able to put up 36 points on them. However, Maryland’s rush defense was clearly overmatched in this one and that led to the Indiana win. If BC can do the same thing with that group of Jon Hilliman, Davon Jones, Myles Willis, and Jeff Smith (on end-arounds), they could certainly put up points on this Maryland defense. If not, BC might have to rely on Patrick Towles’ arm to score points, and that’s kind of a scary thought…
November 26 vs. Rutgers – Maryland 31-13
After losing four straight to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, and Nebraska, Maryland rebounded with an 18-point win over Rutgers. Rutgers was one of the worst power-5 teams in the country this year, not winning a single conference game (that brings back some memories) and ending up ranked #120 in the S&P+ ratings (#127 on offense and #71 on defense). I mean even Buffalo, who BC smoked this year, is ranked right down there with them. In Maryland’s win over Rutgers, Perry Hills was essentially nonexistent, as Maryland relied completely on a rushing attack that garnered 318 yards and 3 touchdowns. Rutgers did get 147 yards of their own on the ground as well as 203 through the air, but were never really in the game in this one. BC is obviously much better than Rutgers was this year, with their top-25 defense, but the Eagles’ offense is actually very similar to Rutger’s O. If things go the same way for BC as they did for Rutgers in this game, BC’s defense will have to shut down Maryland (like they did in the Wake Forest game) for BC to have a shot.
With all that, though, there is still a caveat when you look at Maryland this year: they got absolutely smoked by their toughest competition, much like BC. They lost by a combined 111-6 to Michigan and Ohio State, as well as 38-14 to Penn State, 31-10 to Minnesota, and 28-7 to Nebraska.
That said, it’s still concerning to see the results above from a BC perspective. Maryland beat almost every team that can be considered “similar” to BC this year, sometimes in close games and sometimes in blowout fashion. When you take a closer look at what happened in those games, though, Maryland relied almost completely on their rushing game to score points. In BC’s first ACC win this year, they were able to hold a vaunted NC State rushing attack to 31 yards. If BC plays a similar game to that one, they’ll force Perry Hills to beat BC with his arm, which could bode well for the Eagles on the defensive side, as he hasn’t been great this year and will now have to face the likes of Harold Landry and that great BC pass rush.
If things go Boston College’s way, the Quick Lane bowl could be a very low-scoring affair that is decided by a turnover or a last-second field goal. If Maryland’s rushing attack has their way with the Eagles, however, that almost certainly won’t be the case. My guess is that the Eagles’ defense will show up and hold Maryland to somewhere between 15-25 points. Then it’ll be up to Addazio, Loeffler, Patrick Towles, and BC’s rushing game to figure out a way to score more than that...