Coming off a 40-10 victory over FCS Maine in week 4, the Eagles (3-1) opened the week as a 3-point home favorite for this Saturday's game against Colorado State. In the hours after the first line wa released, that number slowly creeped up to 3.5 ... then 4 ... then 4.5 ... then 5.
As of late Tuesday afternoon, Boston College was listed as an even bigger home favorite with the line at BC -7. There's still plenty of time before Saturday's 12:30 p.m. kickoff, but so far we've watched the line move sharply in BC's favor since the line was first released on Sunday night.
The only betting line that's moved more sharply in one direction so far is Bowling Green at UMass, in the Minutemen's FBS McGuirk Stadium debut. Bowling Green began the week as a 12-point road favorite. That line is down to Bowling Green -4.5.
Are bettors simply sleeping on Colorado State?
Of course, there's a lot to like about BC's chances in this game. The Eagles ground game is rolling; having rolled up 836 yards over the last two games alone. Yes, one of those games was against an FCS opponent (Maine) but the other was against the ninth-ranked team in the country. The Colorado State run defense ranks 106th nationally, surrendering 212.33 yards per game over its first three games.
The Eagles will be playing at home in front of a Parents' Weekend Alumni Stadium crowd and the early kickoff (12:30 p.m. Eastern / 10:30 a.m. Central) should similarly benefit the home team.
However, Colorado State has had two weeks to prepare for its showdown with BC; and really three, with the Rams hosting FCS UC-Davis in week 3. The Rams see BC's stellar ground game and raise them one of the nation's most prolific passing attacks. Heading into the week, Colorado State ranks 11th nationally in passing offense, averaging 340 yards per game through the air.
BC's D has been pretty impressive in its own right over the first four games of the season, ranking in the top 25 in rushing defense (18th), passing defense (23rd) and total defense (11th), and just outside the top 25 in scoring defense (27th). It's still early, but that's pretty encouraging given where this unit was just a season ago.
But the movement in the line is just, weird, right? BC favored by a touchdown at home to a very good Mountain West program. I don't know what to make it of other than to be petrified that people think Boston College is potentially better than other programs.