Each week, we take a look at the Football S&P+ rankings - an analytic look from the top to the bottom of college football that features prominently in SB Nation’s college football coverage nationally.
For more info, visit the rankings page on FootballOutsiders; here’s a rundown:
The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)
This week, Boston College moved up slightly to #68 from last week’s spot of #70 in the S&P+. Illinois and Syracuse are the two teams BC passed. Syracuse was punished heavily by the computers for the cardinal sin of playing a close game against UConn (not that I expect things to go much differently for us in November).
Despite the Virginia Tech debacle, BC’s defense is still ranked #12 in the S&P+, which at this point of the season still relies heavily on projections. Offensively, the Eagles are ranked #122.
What do the S&P+ rankings say about BC’s chances of a winning season?
Games BC should win:
Buffalo: #125, including the #124-ranked offense
UConn: #88; ranked #106 on offense
Syracuse: #70; ranked #101 on defense
Wake Forest: #58, but continually moving up after their 4-0 start (were #68 last week)
NC State: #40, including the 15th-ranked offense
Florida State: #13
Now seems like yet another good time to be agitated over the divisional split. And over the fact that BC blew that game against Georgia Tech...