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College Football Betting Picks, Week 11: Nearly Perfect

Coming within a game of being undefeated feels great....except the loss was the Lock Of The Week.

Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

You know what's a great feeling? Going through your weekly picks and realizing you went 3-0-1 through your non-locks of the week. Air Force beating Army by 17 was as close as it came to a loss. Everything is great!

Then your Lock Of The Week fails to cover the spread against a team that has an offense tied with Boston College for the absolute worst in the entire FBS.

First tie of the week though so at least that's nice.

Let's just get on with it. Still feeling the flow after last week.

Last Week: 3-1-1
Season: 30-19-1

#24 Toledo (-4) at Central Michigan

I get that Toledo just lost to Northern Illinois, but come on really guys? You can't fully expect me to watch them walk into Directional Michigan and just cough up a second one right? Toledo is still a very good offensive team, much better than they displayed last week against the Huskies. I would like to think that, now that they're fourth in their MAC division, they can come out and work their way back into the playoff race.

Kind of funny to think a top 25 team may wind up in the Bahamas Bowl while someone else goes to the Boca Raton Bowl as league champion. Though really, when you're playing in Ohio or Illinois, the Bahamas Bowl is really a downgrade in December??

UMass (-7) at Eastern Michigan

Sorry UMass, but I've laid off you guys the past couple of weeks. The Minutemen are a top 60 offense, which is great for them considering they're putting up nearly 300 yards of offense each week and still losing to everyone they play. This week, they head to Ypsilanti, which is a real town with a real college in it. It just doesn't have real college football.

Consider how bad Eastern Michigan really is. Their only win is over Wyoming, but last week was the first time they didn't give up 40-plus points since September 19th. Look at this schedule:

9/26 vs. ARMY - L, 58-36
10/3 at #9 LSU - L, 44-22
10/10 vs. Akron - L, 47-21
10/17 at #22 Toledo - L, 63-20
10/24 at NIU - L, 49-21
10/29 vs. WMU - L, 58-28
11/7 at Miami - L, 28-13

If UMass doesn't win this game, then the gloves come off, and I'm going to go to town on this team.

By the way, as a side note, here's Eastern Michigan's attendnace numbers for their five home games this season:

9/5 (Old Dominion) - 6,474
9/19 (Ball State) - 4.463
9/26 (Army) - 6,513
10/10 (Akron) - 5,638
10/29 (WMU) - 3,534

Yikes.

Wake Forest at #5 Notre Dame (-27)

I'm taking Notre Dame with the points because if Wake Forest keeps it close, the Irish are coming to Boston very mad. So please, Wake Forest, please lay down in this game.

#15 Oklahoma (+3) at #6 Baylor

Call me crazy here. Please, call me crazy.

I'm still not sold on Baylor being a College Football Playoff caliber team, and there's too much at stake for Oklahoma, who needs to win out, then root for complete and utter anarchy to get into a national semifinal game. The next two weeks are going to be absolutely awesome for the Sooners, who draw Baylor on the road before hosting TCU next week.

If Oklahoma wins this game, they will absolutely beat TCU and win the Big XII, which will make voters' heads explode when weighing the one-loss teams. Even though I call the Big XII a bad league, Oklahoma has scored at least 40 points in all of their games with two exceptions - the double-overtime win over Tennessee and the loss to Texas. They've been destroying teams, and they've put up at least 50 in their last four games.

Yes those four games were against bad teams, but I think the loss to Texas helped them learn how to win. I think they're going to beat Baylor outright, and I'm not sure it's going to be that close.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

#1 Clemson (-27.5) at Syracuse

Here's a live look at Syracuse fans standing outside the Carrier Dome: