On Wednesday, Football Study Hall's Bill Connelly projected the final few weeks of the ACC football regular season. According to Bill's projections, Boston College has a 95% chance of winning at least one more conference game. The Eagles' chances of winning two more conference games stand at 42.1%.
Boston College's odds of finishing 3-0 are about as good as they are of finishing 0-3, with a slight lean towards losing out to finish 3-5 (5.0%) over finishing 5-3 (4.8%). Finishing the year 6-2 in conference though...wouldn't that be something?
The Eagles are still mathematically alive for an Atlantic Division title and a conference championship game berth, but just barely. Boston College would need the following things to happen in the most straightforward scenario:
-- Boston College would have to win out to finish 6-2 (4.8% chance),
-- Clemson would have to lose out to finish 5-3 (1.7% chance...damn you, Wake!), and,
-- Florida State would have to lose at least one other conference game (Virginia or Miami) to finish 6-2 or worse (13.1%).
There are two other scenarios: one where BC, Clemson and Florida State all finish with identical 6-2 records, and another where BC, Clemson, Florida State and Louisville all finish atop the division at 5-3, but I'm not about to go through all the permutations and tiebreaker scenarios quite yet to figure out why wins the division. Math is hard.
In the Coastal Division, Duke has the best chance of repeating as division champs, though Georgia Tech and Miami are still in this thing. The dream scenario of a seven-way, 4-4 tie atop the Coastal Division is alive, but just barely, as the Blue Devils have just a 0.4% chance of finishing 4-4.
Bill has also calculated win probabilities for each game the rest of the way. Boston College has a 46.3% chance against Louisville this Saturday, but only a 14.8% chance of knocking off #2 ranked Florida State down in Tallahassee in three weeks. The dudes are also given a 90.4% chance of beating Syracuse in the regular season finale, which any longtime Boston College fan can tell you is grossly overstating the Eagles' chances in that one. Can't imagine what could possibly go wrong in a regular season finale against Syracuse with BC hoping to better its bowl prospects...
For what it's worth, ESPN's Football Power Index spits out similar win probabilities and gives BC a 44.0% chance against Louisville, an 8.0% chance at Florida State and a 65.2% chance vs. Syracuse. So slightly less bullish on BC's chances in the regular season finale against 'Cuse.
Finally, for bowl planning purposes, if you take the most likely projected conference record for each program, the conference will end the year with 10 bowl eligible teams--Florida State, Clemson, Boston College, Louisville and N.C. State from the Atlantic, and Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech from the Coastal. If FSU and/or Notre Dame don't finish in either the College Football Playoff or the "New Year's Six," it could be a very crowded postseason for the ACC. Makes notching another win or two that much more important for BC.