On Wednesday, Football Study Hall's Bill Connelly once again projected the final few weeks of the ACC football regular season. Despite last week's setback, Boston College has a greater than 90% chance of winning at least one more conference game. The Eagles' chances of winning out (12.1%) are slightly greater than losing out (9.1%).
The loss to Louisville officially eliminates Boston College from this year's Atlantic Division title and wins by Clemson (over Wake Forest) and Florida State (over Virginia) eliminate the Cardinals as well. The Atlantic Division is a two-horse race with Florida State likely winning their third straight division title:
- If Florida State finishes 1-1 or 2-0, the Seminoles win. Odds: 91.7%.
- If Florida State finishes 0-2 and Clemson loses to Georgia Tech, the Seminoles win. Odds: 5.4%.
- If Florida State finishes 0-2 and Clemson finishes 1-0, the Tigers win. Odds: 2.9%.
The Coastal Division is just a bit more complicated. Duke (83%) is still in the driver's seat to repeat as Coastal Division champs, but Miami (15%) and Georgia Tech (2%) are close on the Blue Devils' heels.
In terms of individual game win probabilities, Boston College has a 13.8% chance against Florida State next weekend and an 89.2% chance of knocking off Syracuse in the regular season finale (unadjusted for all the weird that happens between BC and Syracuse at season's end, of course).
For the remaining ACC programs looking to string together a few more wins to become bowl eligible, here are those odds:
83.0% N.C. State
74.6% Virginia Tech
21.9% North Carolina
While not so hot for the conference, obviously the fewer bowl-eligible teams from the conference, the better for BC's bowl prospects. Especially with Notre Dame lurking and likely to take one of the conference's choicest bowl destinations.