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ACC Bowl Projections, Week 11

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Where the dudes project this week?

Joy R. Absalon-USA TODAY Sports

Syracuse (3-7) and Wake Forest (2-7) become the first two ACC programs to reach bowl ineligibility this season, while N.C. State missed a chance to punch its bowl ticket in a 56-23 loss to Georgia Tech.

With week 11 in the books, the ACC is stuck on seven bowl eligible teams: Florida State (9-0), Duke (8-1), Georgia Tech (8-2), Clemson (7-2), Louisville (7-3), Miami (6-3) and Boston College (6-3). Eight if you include Notre Dame (7-2), which, unless they win out, probably doesn't land in a New Year's Six bowl game and will slot into the ACC's lineup. More on that in a bit.

Here are this year's ACC bowl tie-ins:

Tier 1
ACC Champ / ACC No. 1 -- Orange Bowl, Miami, Dec. 31 vs. Big Ten / SEC / Notre Dame
ACC No. 2 -- Russell Athletic Bowl, Orlando, Dec. 29 vs. Big 12 3

Tier 2 / Conditional Tie-Ins with Big Ten
ACC Nos. 3-6 OR Big Ten Nos. 5-7 -- Gator, Jacksonville, Jan. 2 vs. SEC 3-8
ACC Nos. 3-6 OR Big Ten Nos. 5-7 -- Music City, Nashville, Dec. 30 vs. SEC 3-8

Tier 2
ACC Nos. 3-6 -- Belk, Charlotte, Dec. 30 vs. SEC 3-8
ACC Nos. 3-6 -- Pinstripe, Bronx, Dec. 27 vs. Big Ten 5-7
ACC Nos. 3-6 -- Sun, El Paso, Dec. 27 vs. Pac-12 5

Everything Else
Independence, Shreveport, Dec. 27 vs. SEC 10 (C-USA conditional)
Military, Annapolis, Dec. 27 vs. American
Quick Lane, Detroit, Dec. 26 vs. Big Ten
BITCOIN, St. Petersburg, Dec. 26 vs. American

Let's break down the bowl picture for the ACC's remaining five programs:

Needs 1 win:

N.C. State Wolfpack (5-5, 1-5 ACC)

Wins: 5
Needs: 6
Remaining: 2 -- 11/15 Wake Forest (NCST -12.5), 11/29 @ North Carolina

How To Get There: Beat Wake in a game where the Pack find themselves early 12.5-point favorites.

Bowl / No Bowl? Bowl

Need 2 wins:

North Carolina Tar Heels (4-5, 2-3 ACC)

Wins: 4
Needs: 6
Remaining: 3 -- 11/15 Pittsburgh (UNC -2), 11/20 @ Duke, 11/29 N.C. State

How To Get There: Win two of three. Still think UNC can get there.

Bowl / No Bowl? Bowl

Virginia Cavaliers (4-6, 2-4 ACC)

Wins: 4
Needs: 6
Remaining: 2 -- 11/22 Miami, 11/28 @ Virginia Tech

How To Get There: After dropping a 34-20 decision at Florida State, Virginia now has to win out to become bowl eligible (and save Mike London's job?). Virginia might pick up one of those wins, but not both.

Bowl / No Bowl? No bowl

Pittsburgh Panthers (4-5, 2-3 ACC)

Wins: 4
Needs: 6
Remaining: 3 -- 11/15 @ North Carolina (Pitt +2), 11/22 Syracuse, 11/29 @ Miami

How To Get There: Pitt may catch a bowl ineligible Syracuse team already mentally checked out next weekend, but would still need one more victory out of two pretty tough road games. Feels like Pitt is an either/or with North Carolina, and I'm sticking with the Heels.

Bowl / No Bowl? No bowl

Virginia Tech Hokies (4-5, 2-3 ACC)

Wins: 4
Needs: 6
Remaining: 3 -- 11/15 @ Duke (VT +6.5), 11/22 @ Wake Forest, 11/28 Virginia

How To Get There: Win two of three, with at Wake Forest and vs. Virginia the most likely candidates. The Hokies are looking to extend the nation's second longest active bowl appearance streak.

Bowl / No Bowl? Bowl

N.C. State, Carolina and N.C. State join Florida State, Duke, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Louisville, BC and Miami...and Notre Dame...giving the conference 11 bowl-eligible teams. I suspect the Irish will lose at least once more (Louisville? @ USC?) to fall to 9-3 on the year. That's probably enough to bump the Irish from the "New Year's Six" and into the ACC's bowl lineup. That'll essentially knock everyone else down a rung, which, bad news for BC.

Best guess as to how this shakes out below with three weeks to go:

College Football Playoff -- Florida State (13-0, 8-0 ACC)

Orange -- Clemson (10-2, 7-1)
Russell Athletic Bowl -- Notre Dame (9-3)

Gator -- Miami (8-4, 5-3) (to stage Miami vs. Florida, probably)
Belk -- Duke (11-2, 7-1)
Pinstripe -- Georgia Tech (9-3, 6-2)
Sun -- Louisville (8-4, 5-3)

Independence -- N.C. State (6-6, 2-6)
Military -- Boston College (7-5, 4-4)
Quick Lane -- Virginia Tech (6-6, 3-5)
BITCOIN -- North Carolina (6-6, 4-4)