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The 62nd ACC Men's Basketball Tournament gets underway this afternoon with #12 Boston College facing #13 Georgia Tech at 1:00 p.m. in the Greensboro Coliseum. Noted college basketball prognosticator Ken Pomeroy has released his log5 analysis of this year's tournament.
The ACC tournament starts Tuesday. Here’s the log5 analysis, where top-seeded Virginia is the favorite: http://t.co/E6Bpl5CxYJ
— Ken Pomeroy (@kenpomeroy) March 8, 2015kenpom's output
kenpom's analysis gives the odds each team has to advance to a certain round as well as win that round. The probabilities take into account all possible scenarios, so Louisville's chances of winning its quarterfinals matchup are different based on whether they are facing Boston College, Georgia Tech or North Carolina.
So what do the numbers suggest for Boston College?
Odds to Defeat Georgia Tech: 44.8%
kenpom only gives BC a 44.8 percent chance of knocking off the Yellow Jackets in the opener. Gotta say I was surprised by this as it contradicts the Vegas betting line on this game (the line opened at a pick'em and is now up to BC -2). I don't believe Pomeroy's projections factor in personnel either and Georgia Tech will be without both Marcus Georges-Hunt and Chris Bolden. Georgia Tech was the only idle team in the conference last weekend (thanks odd numbers), so the Jackets will be well rested. But the team has lost four straight and is coming off a beatdown courtesy of North Carolina.
Odds to Defeat North Carolina: 5.2%
North Carolina hosts the Boston College/Georgia Tech winner in the second game on Wednesday. Should BC advance to the second round, Pomeroy gives the Eagles just a 5.2 percent chance of advancing to the quarterfinals. These two teams met back on February 7 in Chestnut Hill, a 79-68 Tar Heels victory in a game. However, BC made it interesting. BC and UNC went into the locker room knotted at 36 apiece and BC cut the Tar Heels' lead to just 5 with a little over 2 minutes to go in the game. Hanlan scored 30 in the loss.
Odds to Defeat Louisville: 0.9%
Should BC get past both Georgia Tech and North Carolina, a quarterfinals matchup with Louisville awaits the Eagles. Like the UNC game, BC hung with Louisville for a half before the Cardinals pulled away in the second half. Aaron Brown lead all Eagles scorers with 28. Louisville's Chris Jones also scored 28 but has since been kicked off the team. This is where the double-bye really comes in handy as Louisville will be well rested, while this will be BC's third game in as many days.
Odds of Reaching The Final: 0.08%
After dispatching Georgia Tech...and North Carolina...and Louisville, a semifinals matchup against one of Virginia / Clemson / Florida State (but probably Virginia) awaits BC. Much like both UNC and Louisville, Virginia was another team BC hung with for much of the game—though all three of those games were within the friendly confines of Conte Forum. BC's probably not getting this far, but if they do, fatigue will again be a factor. This would be BC's fourth game while its most likely opponent in this spot, Virginia, will have only had to beaten either Clemson or Florida State to get this far.
Odds of Cutting Down The Nets: 0.01%
So you're saying there's a chance? Yes, an incredibly small one. The last hurdle, after taking out the #5, #4 and #1 seeds, would likely be a championship game matchup against either #2 Duke or #3 Notre Dame. This would be one of the craziest things to happen to the ACC Tournament...possibly ever. It's not going to happen, but it's fun to think about just the same.
#goacc