Whenever the middle of the league postseason race faces off against one another, there exists two possibilities. On one hand, the ACC can separate with a large chasm if the teams ahead dominate against teams underneath them. ON the other hand, a split or, worse, wins by the lower teams can instead logjam things together.
Heading into last weekend, three teams (Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia) took on teams seeded lower than them. Because all three of them only had one-win weekends, the latter happened.
Because Boston College didn't play this weekend, they didn't necessarily lose a ton of ground in the playoff race to the final seeds. In fact, they only lost about half of a game from the final playoff seed. Pittsburgh and Wake Forest, now at 5-7 in league play, are ahead of BC simply because they've played more games.
Had the Eagles played the remaining two games against Florida State and won, they would be right on their heels or potentially in front. But by not playing, they also didn't lose any ground. A win by the Panthers and Demon Deacons only gained half of a game. Had BC lost both of those games against the Seminoles, they would've lost another full game in the race.
That leads us to this week. BC has a series against Virginia, one of those teams stuck in the five team jam in the middle of the ACC. A good weekend strongly inserts the Eagles into that race. A poor weekend will allow Virginia to potentially join the top race in the ACC, while keeping BC on the outside looking in. After Duke took two of three from Georgia Tech, they're right back in it as well, creating an incredible race already.
13 teams are going to fit into 10 slots as of right now. Virginia Tech, at 1-11, is already pretty far out of it but can pull into it with a good weekend here or there. Things are going to get interesting.
Here's the games for this upcoming week:
Virginia at Boston College
Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh
Louisville at Florida State
Clemson at Duke
Miami at Notre Dame
Wake Forest at NC State
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
There's a couple of really great weekends of baseball ahead of us. The top headliner, most obviously, is the Louisville-FSU game. With snow ironically in the forecast for Louisville, a series in Florida is probably best for business with this series. It's a nationally-recognized series that'll likely decide who takes the front of the race for the ACC's top seed.
Because the ACC seeds its teams based on winning percentage, we've opted to switch the "games back" category to the winning percentage category in this week's table.
|T-5.||North Carolina State||5-5||.500|
*Wake Forest wins a secondary tiebreaker scenario. The primary tiebreaker is head-to-head, but since the two teams don't play each other, they determine the winner by divisional record. Pittsburgh is currently 1-3 against the Coastal (.333 winning percentage), while Wake is 2-4 against the Atlantic (.500).
-As of right now, I didn't determine the tiebreaker scenario for the fifth place teams because, quite frankly, we have a long way to go and this is going to shake out differently over the next two months.