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Boston College Football 2023 Win Total Set at 5.5

Improvement, or easier schedule?

Boston College v Louisville Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

On Friday morning, DraftKings sportsbook announced their betting win totals for college football. The Boston-based company set Boston College’s expected win total at 5.5 games for 2023, putting them at tied for 10th in the ACC with Wake Forest.

BC finished last season with a 3-9 record with their only wins coming over Maine, Louisville, and NC State. A projection of 5 or 6 wins is certainly an expected improvement from the low points of last season, but it may be a bit of false optimism. Boston College’s 2023 schedule seems incredibly weak, especially now that the ACC has stopped their division format and BC no longer has to play Clemson every year. Their 2023 ACC opponents are mostly in the middle of the pack and their out-of-conference opponents are the weakest they’ve been in years. Boston College will likely be favored over its entire slate of Northern Illinois, Holy Cross, UConn, and Army, meaning sportsbooks may be expecting BC to get just 1 or 2 conference wins against some middling competition.

All of that being said, an over/under of 5.5 wins seems pretty realistic. The team should be slightly better this year with an improved offensive line and a mostly unchanged defense with an extra year of experience under its belt and a reset on injuries. The major loss for the team is obviously legendary WR Zay Flowers, but even his yardage can mostly be recreated through the other receiver talent BC has, especially UCF transfer Ryan O’Keefe. Given the slight overall roster improvement and the weak schedule, a 5 or 6 win season seems fairly likely for this team.

Boston College has gone under on their win totals the past two seasons. Hafley’s team would have gone over in 2020, but the whole Covid thing made for murky waters if I recall correctly. An under 6.5 wins in Addazio’s final season means Vegas, and myself (Niraj here), have slightly overestimated the Eagles in recent years. Steve Addazio went over in four of his seven seasons on the Heights.