The day I have been waiting for has arrived...ok..a bit melodramatic, but a big day nonetheless as ESPN's Bill Connelly released his first pass at returning production for college football 2023.
Returning production, along with recruiting and historic success are the general ways that preseason ratings are created and while returning production is not necessarily an indicator of how the next season will play out, it is pretty safe to say that the more you bring back, the more likely you are to at least improve.
Boston College then brings back 78% of its 2022 production, good enough for 8th in the country and 2nd in the ACC behind only Florida State, who as we mentioned at the conclusion of this season, will be the trendy pick to win the conference and likely contend for a CFP berth.
Here are the top 10 and note that these are supposed to include the transfer portal pluses and minuses.
1) Florida State 87%, 2) Kansas 85%, 3) Florida Atlantic 83%, 4) Wyoming 83%, 5) Michigan 81%, 6) Connecticut 80%, 7) Texas A&M 80%, 8) Boston College 78%, 9) Missouri 78%, 10) Temple 77%
Other ACC Programs:
24) Syracuse 73%, 33) Duke 71%, 35) Miami 70%, 36) Clemson 69%, 38) Virginia Tech 69%, 43) North Carolina 68%, 47) Georgia Tech 67%, 98) North Carolina St 56%, 99) Louisville 56%, 112) Wake Forest 52%, 116) Virginia 52%, 119) Pittsburgh 51%
BC Non Conference opponents:
6) Connecticut 80%, 12) Northern Illinois 77%, 23) Rutgers 73%, 60) Army 64%
The big thing here is what this means for BC in 2023. In terms of overall power rating, BC's 78% returning production on offense is worth approximately 5 pts and their 79% on defense worth 3.5 points, so right there, the Eagles are going to gain 8.5 points and although that's not everything, the past couple of years recruits are now in a place to also show a boost.
With the BC the 2nd highest in the ACC and so many of the programs down in the 90s and 100s, including four teams on the 2023 schedule, this is a very good initial sign of things to come.
For comparison, in 2022, the Eagles returned just 60% of their overall production, 53% offensively which was #102 in the country and 67% on defense, 65th in the country. Without the deep pool of recruiting to offset those losses immediately and all the injuries that were sustained, it was little wonder why the season went the way it did.
Not sure if I will get to it this week, but shortly, I will post my Way Too Early Rankings, now having some numbers to work with!
BC finished last year at 96th in the final power ratings...just adding those points and taking nothing else into account, would move them up to 68th. Not fantastic, but a jump for sure and figuring in the recruiting, should get the Eagles into a much more respectable place for 2023.