FanPost

The Book 2022: Final Rankings

The Georgia Bulldogs are the 2022 CFP National Champions. UGA blasted TCU, 65-7 in the most lopsided championship along with the most lopsided bowl game result ever. The back to back titles are the first since Alabama in 2011-12 and only the eighth time this has happened in history.

Not only did the Dawgs win that title, but maybe more importantly, they are the #1 team in the Book final rankings. Georgia began the season second behind Alabama in power rating, dropped as low as third in week 5-7 and moved to the #1 ranking in week 12, which they held through the remainder of the season.

Georgia was number one in power rating as well as number one in strength of record, the two components which make up our overall ranking.

TCU finished second overall, yet only tenth in power rating. Per our Pythagorean look at results for the year, the Frogs were the luckiest team in America and that luck ran out in the title game. The final human polls also had TCU second, while virtually all the computer systems ranked them considerably lower.

Tennessee finished third, Alabama fourth, Penn State fifth, with playoff participants Michigan and Ohio State 6th and 7th. That’s a bit twisted from where most of both human and computer rankings had teams, however there is rationale. Remember, one factor that the Book does not look at is head-to-head results, it is evaluating an overall body of work. Penn State benefits from the best strength of record of the three Big 10 teams as does Tennessee over Alabama.

In terms of teams that exceeded preseason ratings, the following were the top 5:

- Duke – Up 77

- Troy – Up 69

- Ohio – Up 66

- Tulane – Up 62

- James Madison – Up 55

TCU finished up 40 spots from their preseason ranking of 42.

On the other side, the teams who most fell short of expectations:

- Miami FL – Down 67

- Arizona St – Down 59

- Texas A&M – Down 56

- Iowa St – Down 55

- Boston College – Down 54

As you can see and experienced, it wasn’t a great year for Boston College. The Eagles finished the season 54 spots lower than they opened it over, 36 spots less in the power ratings. They did this against a very mediocre schedule, ranked 52nd in the country and as we mentioned in the pre-bowl post, the average top 25 team would have been expected to achieve a record of 9.1 wins and 2.9 losses vs that BC schedule.

Our new methodology of strength of record, while I believe it is more accurate, did hurt BC more in the final rankings. The majority of the computer polls had BC between 98 and 106, while we had BC at 114, only ahead of Northwestern and Colorado among the Power Five teams.

In the ACC, Clemson still held the top spot, followed closely by Florida State. The Noles are already a very trendy pick to win the conference in 2023.

Boston College finished 14th and last in the conference.

Of note, the number of low strength of schedule programs in the ACC are noticeable. 11 of the bottom 16 strengths of schedule in 2022, were ACC teams.

Georgia Tech all the way down at #28 played the toughest schedule in the conference

Top SOS
1 AUBURN
2 COLORADO
3 FLORIDA
4 KANSAS ST
5 TEXAS
6 NORTHWESTERN
7 GEORGIA
8 INDIANA
9 IOWA ST
10 LSU

Bottom SOS
131 NEW MEXICO ST
130 FLORIDA INTL
129 EASTERN MICHIGAN
128 JAMES MADISON
127 TEXAS ST
126 UTEP
125 MIAMI OH
124 TOLEDO
123 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
122 SOUTH ALABAMA

Bottom P5 SOS
75 SYRACUSE
73 DUKE
71 VIRGINIA TECH
68 RUTGERS
65 UCLA
61 MINNESOTA
62 MIAMI FL
59 WASHINGTON
57 WAKE FOREST
56 PITTSBURGH
52 BOSTON COLLEGE

Strongest Conference

Not surprising, but the SEC finished the year as the strongest conference. The central mean SEC team was considered 1.16 points stronger than the Big 12 team in second place. The ACC was last among the Power Five a full 7 ½ points behind the average SEC team.

The ACC Coastal really dragged down the overall results, finishing last among the Power Five divisions. The SEC West at #1 had an over 12 point advantage vs ACC Coastal teams.

CONFERENCE RANKINGS 2022
1 SEC 131.98
2 Big 12 130.82
3 Big 10 129.54
4 Pac 12 126.18
5 ACC 124.47
6 AAC 120.53
7 Independent 113.61
8 Sun Belt 112.99
9 Mountain West 110.55
10 Conference USA 110.00
11 Mid American 109.67

CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2022

1 SEC West 132.86
2 Big 10 East 132.00
3 SEC East 131.07
4 Big 12 130.82
5 ACC Atlantic 128.79
6 Big 10 West 128.56
7 Pac 12 126.18
8 ACC Coastal 120.63
9 AAC 120.53
10 Sun Belt East 114.28
11 Independent 113.61
12 Mountain West Mountain 111.66
13 Sun Belt West 111.28
14 Mid American West 110.09
15 Conference USA 110.00
16 Mountain West West 109.69
17 Mid American East 109.16

The Book vs The World

Very happy this year with the progress I made regarding the accuracy of our predictions. Should the Book have participated in the Prediction Tracker website rankings, we would have finished #10 out of 58 systems. The New Book which I kept you loosely in the know about, actually would have finished even better at #9.

Understanding the differences between trying to beat the Vegas line and overall accuracy, the Book would have finished fifth overall removing results against the spread and the New Book would have been 14th.

My goal therefore is to retire the legacy Book and move to the New Book as the go forward plan. Exciting to have it totally under my control after some 38 years.

These results can be found at the bottom of the post.

Looking Forward to 2023

So many improvements to the Book in 2022. Changing the Strength of Record metric, adding all the metrics tracked by the Prediction Tracker allowed us to see exactly how we rate compared to the best, the first swing at the New Book method, improved visibility into strength of schedule, creation of preseason win totals, Pythagorean modeling as well as the look at the resource ratio and how well teams are equipped to play against their schedule. Whew!!

For 2023, I am sure there are all sorts of areas that I will tackle as the season progresses, but in terms of planned improvements:

- Increased automation

o As people have noted, this does take time. I love doing it, but to focus on further improvements and maybe extend it to other sports, I need more automation than what I have in place already, mostly around data acquisition.

- A Way Too Early Ranking

o Based on the New Book methodology, I am planning to create my first ever Way Too Early Rankings for the 2023 season. The current goal is for this to be released in mid February following signing day and will likely be updated several times before the season starts. I hope it’s a great way to drive discussion.

- Improved updating of ratings

o This is something I look at every year and even though the methodology I still use is relatively simple, the results speak for themselves. If I can build a better mousetrap though, I will.

Thanks to you who read the post weekly during the football season. If you have any suggestions on ways to improve or areas to add, do let me know.

Enjoy the offseason and Go Eagles!

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES SOS SOR
TOP 25
WINS
SOR
TOP 25
LOSS
CHANGE
FROM
PRESEASON
1 GEORGIA 15 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7 10.590 4.410 1
2 TCU 13 2 10 2 9 6 13 2 2 12 9.660 5.340 40
3 TENNESSEE 11 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 24 8.896 4.104 17
4 ALABAMA 11 2 2 4 2 4 2 5 5 22 8.915 4.085 (3)
5 PENN ST 11 2 5 5 6 7 6 7 7 27 9.069 3.931 7
6 MICHIGAN 13 1 6 6 5 2 4 3 3 39 10.723 3.277 0
7 OHIO ST 11 2 4 7 3 3 3 4 4 16 9.251 3.749 (4)
8 LSU 10 4 8 8 10 9 10 16 15 10 9.008 4.992 10
9 KANSAS ST 10 4 15 9 11 8 12 14 14 4 9.337 4.663 24
10 WASHINGTON 11 2 14 10 13 12 20 8 8 59 10.353 2.647 37
11 CLEMSON 11 3 9 11 14 10 9 13 12 34 10.442 3.558 (7)
12 FLORIDA ST 10 3 13 12 16 15 11 11 10 50 9.500 3.500 25
13 OREGON ST 10 3 12 16 12 16 19 17 17 37 9.761 3.239 38
14 OREGON 10 3 18 14 15 13 14 15 16 42 9.685 3.315 9
15 MISSISSIPPI ST 9 4 17 17 19 19 15 20 19 13 8.841 4.159 12
16 TULANE 12 2 26 13 25 17 25 9 9 72 11.513 2.487 62
17 USC 11 3 25 15 18 14 16 12 13 41 10.728 3.272 21
18 UTAH 10 4 7 20 7 11 8 10 11 49 10.547 3.453 (8)
19 TEXAS 8 5 11 21 8 18 7 25 25 5 8.465 4.535 (6)
20 TEXAS TECH 8 5 21 18 22 23 28 29 8.235 4.765 30
21 NOTRE DAME 9 4 16 23 17 20 17 18 18 48 9.848 3.152 (14)
22 IOWA 8 5 19 24 21 30 34 26 8.812 4.188 6
23 SOUTH CAROLINA 8 5 34 22 38 29 49 23 23 33 8.553 4.447 23
24 TROY 12 2 53 19 54 27 63 19 20 94 12.431 1.569 69
25 MINNESOTA 9 4 23 25 24 25 21 61 10.202 2.798 5
26 FRESNO ST 10 4 27 27 36 34 57 24 24 96 11.438 2.562 29
27 MARYLAND 8 5 32 26 37 31 31 43 9.089 3.911 22
28 PITTSBURGH 9 4 28 29 32 26 30 22 22 56 10.310 2.690 (3)
29 UCLA 9 4 33 28 28 22 27 21 21 65 10.309 2.691 7
30 ILLINOIS 8 5 22 32 26 28 24 44 9.576 3.424 42
31 LOUISVILLE 8 5 24 37 23 21 22 45 9.813 3.187 8
32 UTSA 11 3 57 30 62 35 59 103 12.617 1.383 38
33 MISSISSIPPI 8 5 35 33 30 24 18 23 9.684 3.316 (19)
34 NORTH CAROLINA 9 5 49 31 49 39 43 54 10.615 3.385 1
35 DUKE 9 4 42 34 43 40 45 73 10.929 2.071 77
36 AIR FORCE 10 3 43 36 45 41 56 106 12.163 0.837 23
37 ARKANSAS 7 6 29 43 29 33 36 17 8.918 4.082 (15)
38 CINCINNATI 9 4 47 38 47 38 40 69 11.077 1.923 (12)
39 KENTUCKY 7 6 39 42 35 37 44 19 8.912 4.088 (18)
40 PURDUE 8 6 48 39 52 47 50 21 9.991 4.009 (6)
41 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 5 45 40 46 36 39 53 10.161 2.839 (26)
42 OKLAHOMA ST 7 6 41 45 40 52 38 47 9.033 3.967 (33)
43 WAKE FOREST 8 5 37 49 34 32 32 57 10.693 2.307 0
44 WISCONSIN 7 6 30 50 31 46 29 35 9.541 3.459 (33)
45 SOUTH ALABAMA 10 3 81 35 77 54 72 122 12.144 0.856 69
46 BOISE ST 10 4 54 47 51 45 54 80 12.926 1.074 (5)
47 BYU 8 5 60 44 60 56 65 63 10.294 2.706 (15)
48 JAMES MADISON 8 3 66 41 59 49 61 128 10.166 0.834 55
49 OHIO 10 4 79 46 73 68 90 98 12.907 1.093 66
50 SYRACUSE 7 6 59 52 61 51 47 75 9.589 3.411 11
51 WASHINGTON ST 7 6 55 54 42 48 55 32 9.687 3.313 12
52 MARSHALL 9 4 69 48 69 55 68 115 11.985 1.015 23
53 UCF 9 5 61 53 56 43 37 67 12.452 1.548 (9)
54 BAYLOR 6 7 31 62 27 50 26 38 8.942 4.058 (38)
55 EAST CAROLINA 8 5 64 56 65 60 64 74 11.121 1.879 19
56 FLORIDA 6 7 38 63 33 42 33 3 8.992 4.008 (27)
57 OKLAHOMA 6 7 20 68 20 44 23 14 9.541 3.459 (52)
58 HOUSTON 8 5 65 57 63 57 53 66 11.364 1.636 (13)
59 WESTERN KENTUCKY 9 5 56 60 66 61 48 111 13.247 0.753 17
60 EASTERN MICHIGAN 9 4 90 51 84 77 103 129 12.275 0.725 40
61 AUBURN 5 7 40 67 44 53 42 1 7.799 4.201 (37)
62 KANSAS 6 7 63 61 55 58 58 18 8.896 4.104 32
63 MISSOURI 6 7 58 65 57 59 60 31 9.041 3.959 (9)
64 TEXAS A&M 5 7 36 70 39 63 35 36 8.055 3.945 (56)
65 SMU 7 6 62 64 58 62 62 64 10.531 2.469 (12)
66 TOLEDO 9 5 78 58 76 70 77 124 12.857 1.143 2
67 COASTAL CAROLINA 9 4 102 55 99 69 94 87 12.488 0.512 14
68 MICHIGAN ST 5 7 44 73 53 64 46 11 8.157 3.843 (49)
69 MEMPHIS 7 6 51 71 50 65 51 77 11.367 1.633 (5)
70 LIBERTY 8 5 86 59 90 74 81 105 11.714 1.286 10
71 WEST VIRGINIA 5 7 50 74 48 66 52 20 8.158 3.842 (19)
72 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 8 5 106 66 107 85 95 123 12.064 0.936 29
73 ARIZONA 5 7 70 76 67 71 73 30 8.397 3.603 17
74 VANDERBILT 5 7 89 69 89 72 96 15 7.995 4.005 33
75 UAB 7 6 75 78 80 73 67 114 11.842 1.158 (8)
76 GEORGIA TECH 5 7 76 81 79 75 80 28 8.471 3.529 8
77 SAN JOSE ST 7 5 99 72 96 87 89 118 11.370 0.630 21
78 SAN DIEGO ST 7 6 87 79 85 81 88 95 11.849 1.151 (12)
79 SOUTHERN MISS 7 6 93 80 93 83 92 117 11.850 1.150 31
80 ARMY 6 6 67 85 71 79 76 116 11.055 0.945 (11)
81 WYOMING 7 6 95 75 94 90 102 89 11.734 1.266 24
82 APPALACHIAN ST 6 6 77 84 75 76 66 120 11.032 0.968 (26)
83 NORTH TEXAS 7 7 91 83 92 88 78 104 12.724 1.276 13
84 MIAMI FL 5 7 72 88 78 84 69 62 9.759 2.241 (67)
85 BUFFALO 7 6 100 82 100 91 100 121 12.453 0.547 21
86 IOWA ST 4 8 46 98 41 67 41 9 8.647 3.353 (55)
87 LOUISIANA 6 7 74 93 74 78 74 91 11.963 1.037 (16)
88 NEBRASKA 4 8 52 100 64 86 70 40 8.777 3.223 (48)
89 NEW MEXICO ST 7 6 121 77 117 110 121 131 11.806 1.194 41
90 UTAH ST 6 7 109 86 106 101 109 78 11.103 1.897 (11)
91 INDIANA 4 8 80 95 81 82 85 8 8.227 3.773 (18)
92 NAVY 4 8 68 99 72 89 79 58 8.689 3.311 3
93 TULSA 5 7 83 96 86 92 84 70 10.300 1.700 (5)
94 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6 7 97 89 98 94 91 101 11.765 1.235 17
95 CONNECTICUT 6 7 114 87 116 102 120 93 11.157 1.843 33
96 KENT ST 5 7 98 92 97 96 97 79 9.942 2.058 8
97 MIAMI OH 6 7 103 90 103 103 110 125 11.863 1.137 (8)
98 CALIFORNIA 4 8 73 105 68 80 71 46 9.294 2.706 (33)
99 RUTGERS 4 8 104 97 104 100 101 68 8.330 3.670 (16)
100 UNLV 5 7 113 94 108 108 106 107 10.084 1.916 13
101 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 7 92 104 91 99 86 112 11.252 0.748 (2)
102 BOWLING GREEN 6 7 118 91 118 105 122 92 11.879 1.121 18
103 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5 7 101 101 101 109 113 102 11.056 0.944 (12)
104 UTEP 5 7 105 102 112 111 108 126 11.074 0.926 12
105 BALL ST 5 7 108 103 105 107 115 109 11.220 0.780 4
106 GEORGIA ST 4 8 85 109 87 98 87 83 10.750 1.250 (24)
107 ARIZONA ST 3 9 71 114 70 95 75 51 8.961 3.039 (59)
108 VIRGINIA 3 7 84 112 83 97 83 55 8.406 1.594 (51)
109 STANFORD 3 9 88 111 82 93 82 25 8.306 3.694 (51)
110 RICE 5 8 119 106 121 113 118 90 11.766 1.234 13
111 VIRGINIA TECH 3 8 82 116 88 104 93 71 9.135 1.865 (49)
112 LA MONROE 4 8 117 107 119 112 117 76 10.136 1.864 14
113 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 4 8 111 110 109 116 107 113 10.770 1.230 (26)
114 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 9 96 115 102 106 98 52 9.100 2.900 (54)
115 TEXAS ST 4 8 123 108 126 117 114 127 10.742 1.258 10
116 TEMPLE 3 9 110 119 110 118 111 86 10.721 1.279 6
117 COLORADO ST 3 9 115 117 114 120 125 81 10.493 1.507 (20)
118 OLD DOMINION 3 9 112 123 111 115 105 85 11.298 0.702 (10)
119 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 3 9 116 121 115 124 119 119 10.869 1.131 (33)
120 LOUISIANA TECH 3 9 120 118 123 122 116 108 10.713 1.287 (3)
121 ARKANSAS ST 3 9 125 120 122 121 112 97 10.743 1.257 0
122 FLORIDA INTL 4 8 131 113 130 128 131 130 11.621 0.379 7
123 CHARLOTTE 3 9 128 122 128 125 127 100 11.170 0.830 (5)
124 HAWAII 3 10 124 124 127 126 129 99 12.099 0.901 (5)
125 NORTHWESTERN 1 11 94 128 95 114 99 6 8.319 3.681 (48)
126 AKRON 2 10 122 125 125 127 126 88 10.720 1.280 1
127 NEVADA 2 10 127 127 124 129 123 82 11.032 0.968 (25)
128 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 11 107 130 113 123 104 60 9.603 2.397 (36)
129 NEW MEXICO 2 10 129 126 129 130 128 84 10.984 1.016 (5)
130 COLORADO 1 11 126 129 120 119 124 2 8.372 3.628 (45)
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 11 130 131 131 131 130 110 11.154 0.846 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES SOS SOR
TOP 25
WINS
SOR
TOP 25
LOSS
1 CLEMSON 11 3 9 11 14 10 9 13 12 34 10.442 3.558
2 FLORIDA ST 10 3 13 12 16 15 11 11 10 50 9.500 3.500
3 PITTSBURGH 9 4 28 29 32 26 30 22 22 56 10.310 2.690
4 LOUISVILLE 8 5 24 37 23 21 22 45 9.813 3.187
5 NORTH CAROLINA 9 5 49 31 49 39 43 54 10.615 3.385
6 DUKE 9 4 42 34 43 40 45 73 10.929 2.071
7 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 5 45 40 46 36 39 53 10.161 2.839
8 WAKE FOREST 8 5 37 49 34 32 32 57 10.693 2.307
9 SYRACUSE 7 6 59 52 61 51 47 75 9.589 3.411
10 GEORGIA TECH 5 7 76 81 79 75 80 28 8.471 3.529
11 MIAMI FL 5 7 72 88 78 84 69 62 9.759 2.241
12 VIRGINIA 3 7 84 112 83 97 83 55 8.406 1.594
13 VIRGINIA TECH 3 8 82 116 88 104 93 71 9.135 1.865
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 9 96 115 102 106 98 52 9.100 2.900
Rank System Pct.
Correct
Against
Spread
Absolute
Error
Bias Mean
Square
Error
games suw sul atsw atsl Pct
Rank
Spread
Rank
Abs Error
Rank
Bias
Rank
MSE
Rank
Total Total
w/o Spread
1 Line (opening) 0.7062 0.5078 12.0805 0.6617 236.294 776 548 228 326 316 8 12 2 27 3 52 40
2 Line (updated) 0.7152 0.4928 12.0651 0.6012 233.847 776 555 221 171 176 1 27 1 25 1 55 28
3 Sagarin Ratings 0.7075 0.5065 12.4622 (0.1380) 249.689 776 549 227 389 379 7 14 14 8 12 55 41
4 Massey Ratings 0.6972 0.5319 12.4786 (0.0418) 251.724 776 541 235 408 359 18 3 15 5 16 57 54
5 Donchess Inference 0.7010 0.5219 12.4516 0.4972 250.995 776 544 232 394 361 15 6 12 17 13 63 57
6 System Median 0.6933 0.5086 12.3608 0.5109 246.750 776 538 238 385 372 23 11 7 18 8 67 56
7 David Harville 0.6946 0.5091 12.4966 0.0855 253.125 776 539 237 390 376 21 10 16 7 17 71 61
8 ESPN FPI 0.7035 0.5053 12.2733 0.9943 244.335 769 541 228 384 376 11 16 4 42 5 78 62
9 The New Book 0.7101 0.5007 12.5251 0.7768 245.841 776 551 225 381 380 5 20 18 33 6 82 62
10 The Book 0.7089 0.4807 12.3026 0.5735 246.165 776 548 225 362 391 6 42 6 22 7 83 41
11 Computer Adjusted Line 0.7139 0.4690 12.0921 0.5844 234.884 776 554 222 212 240 2 54 3 24 2 85 31
12 Pi-Ratings Mean 0.7113 0.4921 12.3640 0.9370 246.959 776 552 224 373 385 3 30 8 39 9 89 59
13 TeamRankings.com 0.7036 0.4790 12.3957 0.2530 249.400 776 546 230 364 396 9 46 9 15 11 90 44
14 Sagarin Points 0.6894 0.5039 12.5489 (0.1454) 253.307 776 535 241 386 380 28 17 19 9 18 91 74
15 System Average 0.6881 0.4994 12.4338 0.5424 248.770 776 534 242 383 384 31 22 10 19 10 92 70
16 Dokter Entropy 0.7036 0.4909 12.2791 1.0174 243.062 776 546 230 376 390 9 32 5 43 4 93 61
17 Sagarin Recent 0.6997 0.4915 12.6528 (0.0329) 257.407 776 543 233 377 390 16 31 21 3 22 93 62
18 Sagarin Golden Mean 0.6804 0.5065 12.5151 (0.0336) 253.531 776 528 248 389 379 41 14 17 4 19 95 81
19 Pi-Rate Ratings 0.7113 0.4921 12.4384 1.0485 251.072 776 552 224 374 386 3 29 11 45 14 102 73
20 Laz Index 0.6886 0.5190 12.8401 0.4397 263.631 774 533 241 397 368 29 7 28 16 27 107 100
21 Talisman Red 0.6920 0.5234 12.9252 0.2529 271.807 776 537 239 402 366 25 5 32 14 32 108 103
22 PI-Rate Bias 0.7023 0.4902 12.4605 1.0799 251.311 776 545 231 375 390 13 33 13 46 15 120 87
23 Payne Power Ratings 0.6881 0.4948 12.8681 0.2151 267.004 776 534 242 380 388 31 25 30 11 29 126 101
24 Pigskin Index 0.7023 0.4897 12.5657 1.0377 255.484 776 545 231 357 372 13 34 20 44 20 131 97
25 Waywardtrends 0.6843 0.5111 12.7776 0.8167 264.981 776 531 245 392 375 35 9 27 35 28 134 125
26 Edward Kambour 0.6886 0.4856 12.6617 0.5814 259.395 774 533 241 372 394 29 38 22 23 23 135 97
27 Versus Sports Simulator 0.6973 0.4758 12.7339 0.7699 262.842 773 539 234 364 401 17 49 25 32 26 149 100
28 Dave Congrove 0.6843 0.5072 12.9343 0.9805 267.934 776 531 245 389 378 35 13 33 40 30 151 138
29 Roundtable 0.6834 0.5030 13.0444 0.5502 279.380 518 354 164 253 250 38 18 36 20 41 153 135
30 Moore Power Ratings 0.6800 0.4817 13.1106 (0.0252) 276.591 775 527 248 369 397 42 40 39 2 34 157 117
31 Keeper 0.6955 0.5248 13.1567 1.6739 279.270 775 539 236 402 364 20 4 42 53 40 159 155
32 Brent Craig 0.7033 0.4549 12.6782 1.2032 256.102 728 512 216 328 393 12 58 24 47 21 162 104
33 Stat Fox 0.6901 0.4925 12.7449 2.0602 262.238 768 530 238 362 373 27 28 26 56 25 162 134
34 Dunkel Index 0.6965 0.4963 13.0713 1.2361 279.665 682 475 207 336 341 19 23 37 48 42 169 146
35 Daniel Curry Index 0.6856 0.5007 13.1672 0.7610 280.958 773 530 243 383 382 33 21 43 31 43 171 150
36 ARGH Power Ratings 0.6753 0.4789 13.0938 (0.0512) 276.669 776 524 252 352 383 47 47 38 6 35 173 126
37 FEI Projections 0.6757 0.4943 12.6622 (1.6793) 261.959 626 423 203 305 312 46 26 23 54 24 173 147
38 Linear Regression 0.6848 0.4957 12.8546 1.3205 278.097 349 239 110 171 174 34 24 29 50 37 174 150
39 Billingsley 0.6645 0.5026 13.4379 0.1611 292.406 775 515 260 385 381 51 19 48 10 48 176 157
40 Laffaye RWP 0.6828 0.4804 13.5330 (0.0155) 291.424 722 493 229 343 371 39 43 50 1 47 180 137
41 Bihl System 0.6732 0.4816 12.8694 0.7020 271.105 410 276 134 196 211 49 41 31 28 31 180 139
42 Born Power Index 0.6946 0.4792 13.0384 1.2843 276.156 776 539 237 368 400 21 45 34 49 33 182 137
43 DP Dwiggins 0.6929 0.4866 13.2723 (0.9342) 283.183 775 537 238 362 382 24 36 45 38 46 189 153
44 Payne Predict 0.6843 0.4732 13.1513 0.7929 278.935 776 531 245 362 403 35 50 41 34 38 198 148
45 Beck Elo 0.6778 0.4804 13.1371 0.8316 277.478 776 526 250 367 397 43 44 40 36 36 199 155
46 Payne W/L 0.6585 0.4896 13.5289 (0.2410) 295.208 776 511 265 375 391 54 35 49 12 50 200 165
47 Howell 0.6766 0.4768 13.4124 0.2463 294.056 776 525 251 350 384 45 48 47 13 49 202 154
48 Stephen Kerns 0.6907 0.4843 13.8967 0.7545 312.164 776 536 240 370 394 26 39 51 30 56 202 163
49 Logistic Regression 0.6476 0.5362 14.2849 (0.8567) 362.924 349 226 123 185 160 58 1 57 37 58 211 210
50 Massey Consensus 0.6817 0.4701 13.0411 1.4341 279.200 776 529 247 361 407 40 51 35 51 39 216 165
51 Loudsound.org 0.6644 0.5168 13.9540 (3.3022) 309.256 718 477 241 354 331 52 8 52 58 52 222 214
52 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.6623 0.5351 14.3719 1.5603 327.602 302 200 102 160 139 53 2 58 52 57 222 220
53 PerformanZ Ratings 0.6662 0.4857 14.0026 0.9886 310.134 776 517 259 373 395 50 37 54 41 54 236 199
54 Cleanup Hitter 0.6482 0.4700 14.0045 0.5626 310.485 776 503 273 352 397 56 52 55 21 55 239 187
55 Cleanup Hitter 0.6477 0.4693 13.9703 0.6156 308.769 775 502 273 351 397 57 53 53 26 51 240 187
56 Catherwood Ratings 0.6778 0.4614 13.2668 1.9858 281.530 776 526 250 341 398 43 56 44 55 44 242 186
57 Cleanup Hitter 0.6567 0.4661 14.0518 0.7276 309.980 734 482 252 330 378 55 55 56 29 53 248 193
58 Catherwood Ratings 0.6744 0.4558 13.3365 2.1458 281.862 734 495 239 320 382 48 57 46 57 45 253 196