The Georgia Bulldogs are the 2022 CFP National Champions. UGA blasted TCU, 65-7 in the most lopsided championship along with the most lopsided bowl game result ever. The back to back titles are the first since Alabama in 2011-12 and only the eighth time this has happened in history.
Not only did the Dawgs win that title, but maybe more importantly, they are the #1 team in the Book final rankings. Georgia began the season second behind Alabama in power rating, dropped as low as third in week 5-7 and moved to the #1 ranking in week 12, which they held through the remainder of the season.
Georgia was number one in power rating as well as number one in strength of record, the two components which make up our overall ranking.
TCU finished second overall, yet only tenth in power rating. Per our Pythagorean look at results for the year, the Frogs were the luckiest team in America and that luck ran out in the title game. The final human polls also had TCU second, while virtually all the computer systems ranked them considerably lower.
Tennessee finished third, Alabama fourth, Penn State fifth, with playoff participants Michigan and Ohio State 6th and 7th. That’s a bit twisted from where most of both human and computer rankings had teams, however there is rationale. Remember, one factor that the Book does not look at is head-to-head results, it is evaluating an overall body of work. Penn State benefits from the best strength of record of the three Big 10 teams as does Tennessee over Alabama.
In terms of teams that exceeded preseason ratings, the following were the top 5:
- Duke – Up 77
- Troy – Up 69
- Ohio – Up 66
- Tulane – Up 62
- James Madison – Up 55
TCU finished up 40 spots from their preseason ranking of 42.
On the other side, the teams who most fell short of expectations:
- Miami FL – Down 67
- Arizona St – Down 59
- Texas A&M – Down 56
- Iowa St – Down 55
- Boston College – Down 54
As you can see and experienced, it wasn’t a great year for Boston College. The Eagles finished the season 54 spots lower than they opened it over, 36 spots less in the power ratings. They did this against a very mediocre schedule, ranked 52nd in the country and as we mentioned in the pre-bowl post, the average top 25 team would have been expected to achieve a record of 9.1 wins and 2.9 losses vs that BC schedule.
Our new methodology of strength of record, while I believe it is more accurate, did hurt BC more in the final rankings. The majority of the computer polls had BC between 98 and 106, while we had BC at 114, only ahead of Northwestern and Colorado among the Power Five teams.
In the ACC, Clemson still held the top spot, followed closely by Florida State. The Noles are already a very trendy pick to win the conference in 2023.
Boston College finished 14th and last in the conference.
Of note, the number of low strength of schedule programs in the ACC are noticeable. 11 of the bottom 16 strengths of schedule in 2022, were ACC teams.
Georgia Tech all the way down at #28 played the toughest schedule in the conference
|
|
Top SOS |
| 1 | AUBURN |
| 2 | COLORADO |
| 3 | FLORIDA |
| 4 | KANSAS ST |
| 5 | TEXAS |
| 6 | NORTHWESTERN |
| 7 | GEORGIA |
| 8 | INDIANA |
| 9 | IOWA ST |
| 10 | LSU |
|
|
Bottom SOS |
| 131 | NEW MEXICO ST |
| 130 | FLORIDA INTL |
| 129 | EASTERN MICHIGAN |
| 128 | JAMES MADISON |
| 127 | TEXAS ST |
| 126 | UTEP |
| 125 | MIAMI OH |
| 124 | TOLEDO |
| 123 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE |
| 122 | SOUTH ALABAMA |
|
|
Bottom P5 SOS |
| 75 | SYRACUSE |
| 73 | DUKE |
| 71 | VIRGINIA TECH |
| 68 | RUTGERS |
| 65 | UCLA |
| 61 | MINNESOTA |
| 62 | MIAMI FL |
| 59 | WASHINGTON |
| 57 | WAKE FOREST |
| 56 | PITTSBURGH |
| 52 | BOSTON COLLEGE |
Strongest Conference
Not surprising, but the SEC finished the year as the strongest conference. The central mean SEC team was considered 1.16 points stronger than the Big 12 team in second place. The ACC was last among the Power Five a full 7 ½ points behind the average SEC team.
The ACC Coastal really dragged down the overall results, finishing last among the Power Five divisions. The SEC West at #1 had an over 12 point advantage vs ACC Coastal teams.
| CONFERENCE RANKINGS 2022 | ||
| 1 | SEC | 131.98 |
| 2 | Big 12 | 130.82 |
| 3 | Big 10 | 129.54 |
| 4 | Pac 12 | 126.18 |
| 5 | ACC | 124.47 |
| 6 | AAC | 120.53 |
| 7 | Independent | 113.61 |
| 8 | Sun Belt | 112.99 |
| 9 | Mountain West | 110.55 |
| 10 | Conference USA | 110.00 |
| 11 | Mid American | 109.67 |
|
CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2022 |
||
| 1 | SEC West | 132.86 |
| 2 | Big 10 East | 132.00 |
| 3 | SEC East | 131.07 |
| 4 | Big 12 | 130.82 |
| 5 | ACC Atlantic | 128.79 |
| 6 | Big 10 West | 128.56 |
| 7 | Pac 12 | 126.18 |
| 8 | ACC Coastal | 120.63 |
| 9 | AAC | 120.53 |
| 10 | Sun Belt East | 114.28 |
| 11 | Independent | 113.61 |
| 12 | Mountain West Mountain | 111.66 |
| 13 | Sun Belt West | 111.28 |
| 14 | Mid American West | 110.09 |
| 15 | Conference USA | 110.00 |
| 16 | Mountain West West | 109.69 |
| 17 | Mid American East | 109.16 |
The Book vs The World
Very happy this year with the progress I made regarding the accuracy of our predictions. Should the Book have participated in the Prediction Tracker website rankings, we would have finished #10 out of 58 systems. The New Book which I kept you loosely in the know about, actually would have finished even better at #9.
Understanding the differences between trying to beat the Vegas line and overall accuracy, the Book would have finished fifth overall removing results against the spread and the New Book would have been 14th.
My goal therefore is to retire the legacy Book and move to the New Book as the go forward plan. Exciting to have it totally under my control after some 38 years.
These results can be found at the bottom of the post.
Looking Forward to 2023
So many improvements to the Book in 2022. Changing the Strength of Record metric, adding all the metrics tracked by the Prediction Tracker allowed us to see exactly how we rate compared to the best, the first swing at the New Book method, improved visibility into strength of schedule, creation of preseason win totals, Pythagorean modeling as well as the look at the resource ratio and how well teams are equipped to play against their schedule. Whew!!
For 2023, I am sure there are all sorts of areas that I will tackle as the season progresses, but in terms of planned improvements:
- Increased automation
o As people have noted, this does take time. I love doing it, but to focus on further improvements and maybe extend it to other sports, I need more automation than what I have in place already, mostly around data acquisition.
- A Way Too Early Ranking
o Based on the New Book methodology, I am planning to create my first ever Way Too Early Rankings for the 2023 season. The current goal is for this to be released in mid February following signing day and will likely be updated several times before the season starts. I hope it’s a great way to drive discussion.
- Improved updating of ratings
o This is something I look at every year and even though the methodology I still use is relatively simple, the results speak for themselves. If I can build a better mousetrap though, I will.
Thanks to you who read the post weekly during the football season. If you have any suggestions on ways to improve or areas to add, do let me know.
Enjoy the offseason and Go Eagles!
| RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | SOS | SOR TOP 25 WINS |
SOR TOP 25 LOSS |
CHANGE FROM PRESEASON |
| 1 | GEORGIA | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10.590 | 4.410 | 1 |
| 2 | TCU | 13 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 9.660 | 5.340 | 40 |
| 3 | TENNESSEE | 11 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 8.896 | 4.104 | 17 |
| 4 | ALABAMA | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 8.915 | 4.085 | (3) |
| 5 | PENN ST | 11 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 27 | 9.069 | 3.931 | 7 |
| 6 | MICHIGAN | 13 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 10.723 | 3.277 | 0 |
| 7 | OHIO ST | 11 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 9.251 | 3.749 | (4) |
| 8 | LSU | 10 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 9.008 | 4.992 | 10 |
| 9 | KANSAS ST | 10 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 9.337 | 4.663 | 24 |
| 10 | WASHINGTON | 11 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 59 | 10.353 | 2.647 | 37 |
| 11 | CLEMSON | 11 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 34 | 10.442 | 3.558 | (7) |
| 12 | FLORIDA ST | 10 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 9.500 | 3.500 | 25 |
| 13 | OREGON ST | 10 | 3 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 17 | 37 | 9.761 | 3.239 | 38 |
| 14 | OREGON | 10 | 3 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 42 | 9.685 | 3.315 | 9 |
| 15 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 9 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 13 | 8.841 | 4.159 | 12 |
| 16 | TULANE | 12 | 2 | 26 | 13 | 25 | 17 | 25 | 9 | 9 | 72 | 11.513 | 2.487 | 62 |
| 17 | USC | 11 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 41 | 10.728 | 3.272 | 21 |
| 18 | UTAH | 10 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 49 | 10.547 | 3.453 | (8) |
| 19 | TEXAS | 8 | 5 | 11 | 21 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 5 | 8.465 | 4.535 | (6) |
| 20 | TEXAS TECH | 8 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 28 | 29 | 8.235 | 4.765 | 30 | ||
| 21 | NOTRE DAME | 9 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 48 | 9.848 | 3.152 | (14) |
| 22 | IOWA | 8 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 21 | 30 | 34 | 26 | 8.812 | 4.188 | 6 | ||
| 23 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 8 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 38 | 29 | 49 | 23 | 23 | 33 | 8.553 | 4.447 | 23 |
| 24 | TROY | 12 | 2 | 53 | 19 | 54 | 27 | 63 | 19 | 20 | 94 | 12.431 | 1.569 | 69 |
| 25 | MINNESOTA | 9 | 4 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 25 | 21 | 61 | 10.202 | 2.798 | 5 | ||
| 26 | FRESNO ST | 10 | 4 | 27 | 27 | 36 | 34 | 57 | 24 | 24 | 96 | 11.438 | 2.562 | 29 |
| 27 | MARYLAND | 8 | 5 | 32 | 26 | 37 | 31 | 31 | 43 | 9.089 | 3.911 | 22 | ||
| 28 | PITTSBURGH | 9 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 32 | 26 | 30 | 22 | 22 | 56 | 10.310 | 2.690 | (3) |
| 29 | UCLA | 9 | 4 | 33 | 28 | 28 | 22 | 27 | 21 | 21 | 65 | 10.309 | 2.691 | 7 |
| 30 | ILLINOIS | 8 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 26 | 28 | 24 | 44 | 9.576 | 3.424 | 42 | ||
| 31 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 37 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 45 | 9.813 | 3.187 | 8 | ||
| 32 | UTSA | 11 | 3 | 57 | 30 | 62 | 35 | 59 | 103 | 12.617 | 1.383 | 38 | ||
| 33 | MISSISSIPPI | 8 | 5 | 35 | 33 | 30 | 24 | 18 | 23 | 9.684 | 3.316 | (19) | ||
| 34 | NORTH CAROLINA | 9 | 5 | 49 | 31 | 49 | 39 | 43 | 54 | 10.615 | 3.385 | 1 | ||
| 35 | DUKE | 9 | 4 | 42 | 34 | 43 | 40 | 45 | 73 | 10.929 | 2.071 | 77 | ||
| 36 | AIR FORCE | 10 | 3 | 43 | 36 | 45 | 41 | 56 | 106 | 12.163 | 0.837 | 23 | ||
| 37 | ARKANSAS | 7 | 6 | 29 | 43 | 29 | 33 | 36 | 17 | 8.918 | 4.082 | (15) | ||
| 38 | CINCINNATI | 9 | 4 | 47 | 38 | 47 | 38 | 40 | 69 | 11.077 | 1.923 | (12) | ||
| 39 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 6 | 39 | 42 | 35 | 37 | 44 | 19 | 8.912 | 4.088 | (18) | ||
| 40 | PURDUE | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 52 | 47 | 50 | 21 | 9.991 | 4.009 | (6) | ||
| 41 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 8 | 5 | 45 | 40 | 46 | 36 | 39 | 53 | 10.161 | 2.839 | (26) | ||
| 42 | OKLAHOMA ST | 7 | 6 | 41 | 45 | 40 | 52 | 38 | 47 | 9.033 | 3.967 | (33) | ||
| 43 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 37 | 49 | 34 | 32 | 32 | 57 | 10.693 | 2.307 | 0 | ||
| 44 | WISCONSIN | 7 | 6 | 30 | 50 | 31 | 46 | 29 | 35 | 9.541 | 3.459 | (33) | ||
| 45 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 10 | 3 | 81 | 35 | 77 | 54 | 72 | 122 | 12.144 | 0.856 | 69 | ||
| 46 | BOISE ST | 10 | 4 | 54 | 47 | 51 | 45 | 54 | 80 | 12.926 | 1.074 | (5) | ||
| 47 | BYU | 8 | 5 | 60 | 44 | 60 | 56 | 65 | 63 | 10.294 | 2.706 | (15) | ||
| 48 | JAMES MADISON | 8 | 3 | 66 | 41 | 59 | 49 | 61 | 128 | 10.166 | 0.834 | 55 | ||
| 49 | OHIO | 10 | 4 | 79 | 46 | 73 | 68 | 90 | 98 | 12.907 | 1.093 | 66 | ||
| 50 | SYRACUSE | 7 | 6 | 59 | 52 | 61 | 51 | 47 | 75 | 9.589 | 3.411 | 11 | ||
| 51 | WASHINGTON ST | 7 | 6 | 55 | 54 | 42 | 48 | 55 | 32 | 9.687 | 3.313 | 12 | ||
| 52 | MARSHALL | 9 | 4 | 69 | 48 | 69 | 55 | 68 | 115 | 11.985 | 1.015 | 23 | ||
| 53 | UCF | 9 | 5 | 61 | 53 | 56 | 43 | 37 | 67 | 12.452 | 1.548 | (9) | ||
| 54 | BAYLOR | 6 | 7 | 31 | 62 | 27 | 50 | 26 | 38 | 8.942 | 4.058 | (38) | ||
| 55 | EAST CAROLINA | 8 | 5 | 64 | 56 | 65 | 60 | 64 | 74 | 11.121 | 1.879 | 19 | ||
| 56 | FLORIDA | 6 | 7 | 38 | 63 | 33 | 42 | 33 | 3 | 8.992 | 4.008 | (27) | ||
| 57 | OKLAHOMA | 6 | 7 | 20 | 68 | 20 | 44 | 23 | 14 | 9.541 | 3.459 | (52) | ||
| 58 | HOUSTON | 8 | 5 | 65 | 57 | 63 | 57 | 53 | 66 | 11.364 | 1.636 | (13) | ||
| 59 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 9 | 5 | 56 | 60 | 66 | 61 | 48 | 111 | 13.247 | 0.753 | 17 | ||
| 60 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 9 | 4 | 90 | 51 | 84 | 77 | 103 | 129 | 12.275 | 0.725 | 40 | ||
| 61 | AUBURN | 5 | 7 | 40 | 67 | 44 | 53 | 42 | 1 | 7.799 | 4.201 | (37) | ||
| 62 | KANSAS | 6 | 7 | 63 | 61 | 55 | 58 | 58 | 18 | 8.896 | 4.104 | 32 | ||
| 63 | MISSOURI | 6 | 7 | 58 | 65 | 57 | 59 | 60 | 31 | 9.041 | 3.959 | (9) | ||
| 64 | TEXAS A&M | 5 | 7 | 36 | 70 | 39 | 63 | 35 | 36 | 8.055 | 3.945 | (56) | ||
| 65 | SMU | 7 | 6 | 62 | 64 | 58 | 62 | 62 | 64 | 10.531 | 2.469 | (12) | ||
| 66 | TOLEDO | 9 | 5 | 78 | 58 | 76 | 70 | 77 | 124 | 12.857 | 1.143 | 2 | ||
| 67 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 9 | 4 | 102 | 55 | 99 | 69 | 94 | 87 | 12.488 | 0.512 | 14 | ||
| 68 | MICHIGAN ST | 5 | 7 | 44 | 73 | 53 | 64 | 46 | 11 | 8.157 | 3.843 | (49) | ||
| 69 | MEMPHIS | 7 | 6 | 51 | 71 | 50 | 65 | 51 | 77 | 11.367 | 1.633 | (5) | ||
| 70 | LIBERTY | 8 | 5 | 86 | 59 | 90 | 74 | 81 | 105 | 11.714 | 1.286 | 10 | ||
| 71 | WEST VIRGINIA | 5 | 7 | 50 | 74 | 48 | 66 | 52 | 20 | 8.158 | 3.842 | (19) | ||
| 72 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 8 | 5 | 106 | 66 | 107 | 85 | 95 | 123 | 12.064 | 0.936 | 29 | ||
| 73 | ARIZONA | 5 | 7 | 70 | 76 | 67 | 71 | 73 | 30 | 8.397 | 3.603 | 17 | ||
| 74 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 89 | 69 | 89 | 72 | 96 | 15 | 7.995 | 4.005 | 33 | ||
| 75 | UAB | 7 | 6 | 75 | 78 | 80 | 73 | 67 | 114 | 11.842 | 1.158 | (8) | ||
| 76 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 7 | 76 | 81 | 79 | 75 | 80 | 28 | 8.471 | 3.529 | 8 | ||
| 77 | SAN JOSE ST | 7 | 5 | 99 | 72 | 96 | 87 | 89 | 118 | 11.370 | 0.630 | 21 | ||
| 78 | SAN DIEGO ST | 7 | 6 | 87 | 79 | 85 | 81 | 88 | 95 | 11.849 | 1.151 | (12) | ||
| 79 | SOUTHERN MISS | 7 | 6 | 93 | 80 | 93 | 83 | 92 | 117 | 11.850 | 1.150 | 31 | ||
| 80 | ARMY | 6 | 6 | 67 | 85 | 71 | 79 | 76 | 116 | 11.055 | 0.945 | (11) | ||
| 81 | WYOMING | 7 | 6 | 95 | 75 | 94 | 90 | 102 | 89 | 11.734 | 1.266 | 24 | ||
| 82 | APPALACHIAN ST | 6 | 6 | 77 | 84 | 75 | 76 | 66 | 120 | 11.032 | 0.968 | (26) | ||
| 83 | NORTH TEXAS | 7 | 7 | 91 | 83 | 92 | 88 | 78 | 104 | 12.724 | 1.276 | 13 | ||
| 84 | MIAMI FL | 5 | 7 | 72 | 88 | 78 | 84 | 69 | 62 | 9.759 | 2.241 | (67) | ||
| 85 | BUFFALO | 7 | 6 | 100 | 82 | 100 | 91 | 100 | 121 | 12.453 | 0.547 | 21 | ||
| 86 | IOWA ST | 4 | 8 | 46 | 98 | 41 | 67 | 41 | 9 | 8.647 | 3.353 | (55) | ||
| 87 | LOUISIANA | 6 | 7 | 74 | 93 | 74 | 78 | 74 | 91 | 11.963 | 1.037 | (16) | ||
| 88 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 52 | 100 | 64 | 86 | 70 | 40 | 8.777 | 3.223 | (48) | ||
| 89 | NEW MEXICO ST | 7 | 6 | 121 | 77 | 117 | 110 | 121 | 131 | 11.806 | 1.194 | 41 | ||
| 90 | UTAH ST | 6 | 7 | 109 | 86 | 106 | 101 | 109 | 78 | 11.103 | 1.897 | (11) | ||
| 91 | INDIANA | 4 | 8 | 80 | 95 | 81 | 82 | 85 | 8 | 8.227 | 3.773 | (18) | ||
| 92 | NAVY | 4 | 8 | 68 | 99 | 72 | 89 | 79 | 58 | 8.689 | 3.311 | 3 | ||
| 93 | TULSA | 5 | 7 | 83 | 96 | 86 | 92 | 84 | 70 | 10.300 | 1.700 | (5) | ||
| 94 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 6 | 7 | 97 | 89 | 98 | 94 | 91 | 101 | 11.765 | 1.235 | 17 | ||
| 95 | CONNECTICUT | 6 | 7 | 114 | 87 | 116 | 102 | 120 | 93 | 11.157 | 1.843 | 33 | ||
| 96 | KENT ST | 5 | 7 | 98 | 92 | 97 | 96 | 97 | 79 | 9.942 | 2.058 | 8 | ||
| 97 | MIAMI OH | 6 | 7 | 103 | 90 | 103 | 103 | 110 | 125 | 11.863 | 1.137 | (8) | ||
| 98 | CALIFORNIA | 4 | 8 | 73 | 105 | 68 | 80 | 71 | 46 | 9.294 | 2.706 | (33) | ||
| 99 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 104 | 97 | 104 | 100 | 101 | 68 | 8.330 | 3.670 | (16) | ||
| 100 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 113 | 94 | 108 | 108 | 106 | 107 | 10.084 | 1.916 | 13 | ||
| 101 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 5 | 7 | 92 | 104 | 91 | 99 | 86 | 112 | 11.252 | 0.748 | (2) | ||
| 102 | BOWLING GREEN | 6 | 7 | 118 | 91 | 118 | 105 | 122 | 92 | 11.879 | 1.121 | 18 | ||
| 103 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 101 | 101 | 101 | 109 | 113 | 102 | 11.056 | 0.944 | (12) | ||
| 104 | UTEP | 5 | 7 | 105 | 102 | 112 | 111 | 108 | 126 | 11.074 | 0.926 | 12 | ||
| 105 | BALL ST | 5 | 7 | 108 | 103 | 105 | 107 | 115 | 109 | 11.220 | 0.780 | 4 | ||
| 106 | GEORGIA ST | 4 | 8 | 85 | 109 | 87 | 98 | 87 | 83 | 10.750 | 1.250 | (24) | ||
| 107 | ARIZONA ST | 3 | 9 | 71 | 114 | 70 | 95 | 75 | 51 | 8.961 | 3.039 | (59) | ||
| 108 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 7 | 84 | 112 | 83 | 97 | 83 | 55 | 8.406 | 1.594 | (51) | ||
| 109 | STANFORD | 3 | 9 | 88 | 111 | 82 | 93 | 82 | 25 | 8.306 | 3.694 | (51) | ||
| 110 | RICE | 5 | 8 | 119 | 106 | 121 | 113 | 118 | 90 | 11.766 | 1.234 | 13 | ||
| 111 | VIRGINIA TECH | 3 | 8 | 82 | 116 | 88 | 104 | 93 | 71 | 9.135 | 1.865 | (49) | ||
| 112 | LA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 117 | 107 | 119 | 112 | 117 | 76 | 10.136 | 1.864 | 14 | ||
| 113 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 4 | 8 | 111 | 110 | 109 | 116 | 107 | 113 | 10.770 | 1.230 | (26) | ||
| 114 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 3 | 9 | 96 | 115 | 102 | 106 | 98 | 52 | 9.100 | 2.900 | (54) | ||
| 115 | TEXAS ST | 4 | 8 | 123 | 108 | 126 | 117 | 114 | 127 | 10.742 | 1.258 | 10 | ||
| 116 | TEMPLE | 3 | 9 | 110 | 119 | 110 | 118 | 111 | 86 | 10.721 | 1.279 | 6 | ||
| 117 | COLORADO ST | 3 | 9 | 115 | 117 | 114 | 120 | 125 | 81 | 10.493 | 1.507 | (20) | ||
| 118 | OLD DOMINION | 3 | 9 | 112 | 123 | 111 | 115 | 105 | 85 | 11.298 | 0.702 | (10) | ||
| 119 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 3 | 9 | 116 | 121 | 115 | 124 | 119 | 119 | 10.869 | 1.131 | (33) | ||
| 120 | LOUISIANA TECH | 3 | 9 | 120 | 118 | 123 | 122 | 116 | 108 | 10.713 | 1.287 | (3) | ||
| 121 | ARKANSAS ST | 3 | 9 | 125 | 120 | 122 | 121 | 112 | 97 | 10.743 | 1.257 | 0 | ||
| 122 | FLORIDA INTL | 4 | 8 | 131 | 113 | 130 | 128 | 131 | 130 | 11.621 | 0.379 | 7 | ||
| 123 | CHARLOTTE | 3 | 9 | 128 | 122 | 128 | 125 | 127 | 100 | 11.170 | 0.830 | (5) | ||
| 124 | HAWAII | 3 | 10 | 124 | 124 | 127 | 126 | 129 | 99 | 12.099 | 0.901 | (5) | ||
| 125 | NORTHWESTERN | 1 | 11 | 94 | 128 | 95 | 114 | 99 | 6 | 8.319 | 3.681 | (48) | ||
| 126 | AKRON | 2 | 10 | 122 | 125 | 125 | 127 | 126 | 88 | 10.720 | 1.280 | 1 | ||
| 127 | NEVADA | 2 | 10 | 127 | 127 | 124 | 129 | 123 | 82 | 11.032 | 0.968 | (25) | ||
| 128 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 1 | 11 | 107 | 130 | 113 | 123 | 104 | 60 | 9.603 | 2.397 | (36) | ||
| 129 | NEW MEXICO | 2 | 10 | 129 | 126 | 129 | 130 | 128 | 84 | 10.984 | 1.016 | (5) | ||
| 130 | COLORADO | 1 | 11 | 126 | 129 | 120 | 119 | 124 | 2 | 8.372 | 3.628 | (45) | ||
| 131 | MASSACHUSETTS | 1 | 11 | 130 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 130 | 110 | 11.154 | 0.846 | 0 | ||
| ACC | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | SOS | SOR TOP 25 WINS |
SOR TOP 25 LOSS |
|
| 1 | CLEMSON | 11 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 34 | 10.442 | 3.558 | |
| 2 | FLORIDA ST | 10 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 9.500 | 3.500 | |
| 3 | PITTSBURGH | 9 | 4 | 28 | 29 | 32 | 26 | 30 | 22 | 22 | 56 | 10.310 | 2.690 | |
| 4 | LOUISVILLE | 8 | 5 | 24 | 37 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 45 | 9.813 | 3.187 | |||
| 5 | NORTH CAROLINA | 9 | 5 | 49 | 31 | 49 | 39 | 43 | 54 | 10.615 | 3.385 | |||
| 6 | DUKE | 9 | 4 | 42 | 34 | 43 | 40 | 45 | 73 | 10.929 | 2.071 | |||
| 7 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 8 | 5 | 45 | 40 | 46 | 36 | 39 | 53 | 10.161 | 2.839 | |||
| 8 | WAKE FOREST | 8 | 5 | 37 | 49 | 34 | 32 | 32 | 57 | 10.693 | 2.307 | |||
| 9 | SYRACUSE | 7 | 6 | 59 | 52 | 61 | 51 | 47 | 75 | 9.589 | 3.411 | |||
| 10 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 7 | 76 | 81 | 79 | 75 | 80 | 28 | 8.471 | 3.529 | |||
| 11 | MIAMI FL | 5 | 7 | 72 | 88 | 78 | 84 | 69 | 62 | 9.759 | 2.241 | |||
| 12 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 7 | 84 | 112 | 83 | 97 | 83 | 55 | 8.406 | 1.594 | |||
| 13 | VIRGINIA TECH | 3 | 8 | 82 | 116 | 88 | 104 | 93 | 71 | 9.135 | 1.865 | |||
| 14 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 3 | 9 | 96 | 115 | 102 | 106 | 98 | 52 | 9.100 | 2.900 |
| Rank | System | Pct. Correct |
Against Spread |
Absolute Error |
Bias | Mean Square Error |
games | suw | sul | atsw | atsl | Pct Rank |
Spread Rank |
Abs Error Rank |
Bias Rank |
MSE Rank |
Total | Total w/o Spread |
|
| 1 | Line (opening) | 0.7062 | 0.5078 | 12.0805 | 0.6617 | 236.294 | 776 | 548 | 228 | 326 | 316 | 8 | 12 | 2 | 27 | 3 | 52 | 40 | |
| 2 | Line (updated) | 0.7152 | 0.4928 | 12.0651 | 0.6012 | 233.847 | 776 | 555 | 221 | 171 | 176 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 55 | 28 | |
| 3 | Sagarin Ratings | 0.7075 | 0.5065 | 12.4622 | (0.1380) | 249.689 | 776 | 549 | 227 | 389 | 379 | 7 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 55 | 41 | |
| 4 | Massey Ratings | 0.6972 | 0.5319 | 12.4786 | (0.0418) | 251.724 | 776 | 541 | 235 | 408 | 359 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 16 | 57 | 54 | |
| 5 | Donchess Inference | 0.7010 | 0.5219 | 12.4516 | 0.4972 | 250.995 | 776 | 544 | 232 | 394 | 361 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 63 | 57 | |
| 6 | System Median | 0.6933 | 0.5086 | 12.3608 | 0.5109 | 246.750 | 776 | 538 | 238 | 385 | 372 | 23 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 67 | 56 | |
| 7 | David Harville | 0.6946 | 0.5091 | 12.4966 | 0.0855 | 253.125 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 390 | 376 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 71 | 61 | |
| 8 | ESPN FPI | 0.7035 | 0.5053 | 12.2733 | 0.9943 | 244.335 | 769 | 541 | 228 | 384 | 376 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 42 | 5 | 78 | 62 | |
| 9 | The New Book | 0.7101 | 0.5007 | 12.5251 | 0.7768 | 245.841 | 776 | 551 | 225 | 381 | 380 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 33 | 6 | 82 | 62 | |
| 10 | The Book | 0.7089 | 0.4807 | 12.3026 | 0.5735 | 246.165 | 776 | 548 | 225 | 362 | 391 | 6 | 42 | 6 | 22 | 7 | 83 | 41 | |
| 11 | Computer Adjusted Line | 0.7139 | 0.4690 | 12.0921 | 0.5844 | 234.884 | 776 | 554 | 222 | 212 | 240 | 2 | 54 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 85 | 31 | |
| 12 | Pi-Ratings Mean | 0.7113 | 0.4921 | 12.3640 | 0.9370 | 246.959 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 373 | 385 | 3 | 30 | 8 | 39 | 9 | 89 | 59 | |
| 13 | TeamRankings.com | 0.7036 | 0.4790 | 12.3957 | 0.2530 | 249.400 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 364 | 396 | 9 | 46 | 9 | 15 | 11 | 90 | 44 | |
| 14 | Sagarin Points | 0.6894 | 0.5039 | 12.5489 | (0.1454) | 253.307 | 776 | 535 | 241 | 386 | 380 | 28 | 17 | 19 | 9 | 18 | 91 | 74 | |
| 15 | System Average | 0.6881 | 0.4994 | 12.4338 | 0.5424 | 248.770 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 383 | 384 | 31 | 22 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 92 | 70 | |
| 16 | Dokter Entropy | 0.7036 | 0.4909 | 12.2791 | 1.0174 | 243.062 | 776 | 546 | 230 | 376 | 390 | 9 | 32 | 5 | 43 | 4 | 93 | 61 | |
| 17 | Sagarin Recent | 0.6997 | 0.4915 | 12.6528 | (0.0329) | 257.407 | 776 | 543 | 233 | 377 | 390 | 16 | 31 | 21 | 3 | 22 | 93 | 62 | |
| 18 | Sagarin Golden Mean | 0.6804 | 0.5065 | 12.5151 | (0.0336) | 253.531 | 776 | 528 | 248 | 389 | 379 | 41 | 14 | 17 | 4 | 19 | 95 | 81 | |
| 19 | Pi-Rate Ratings | 0.7113 | 0.4921 | 12.4384 | 1.0485 | 251.072 | 776 | 552 | 224 | 374 | 386 | 3 | 29 | 11 | 45 | 14 | 102 | 73 | |
| 20 | Laz Index | 0.6886 | 0.5190 | 12.8401 | 0.4397 | 263.631 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 397 | 368 | 29 | 7 | 28 | 16 | 27 | 107 | 100 | |
| 21 | Talisman Red | 0.6920 | 0.5234 | 12.9252 | 0.2529 | 271.807 | 776 | 537 | 239 | 402 | 366 | 25 | 5 | 32 | 14 | 32 | 108 | 103 | |
| 22 | PI-Rate Bias | 0.7023 | 0.4902 | 12.4605 | 1.0799 | 251.311 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 375 | 390 | 13 | 33 | 13 | 46 | 15 | 120 | 87 | |
| 23 | Payne Power Ratings | 0.6881 | 0.4948 | 12.8681 | 0.2151 | 267.004 | 776 | 534 | 242 | 380 | 388 | 31 | 25 | 30 | 11 | 29 | 126 | 101 | |
| 24 | Pigskin Index | 0.7023 | 0.4897 | 12.5657 | 1.0377 | 255.484 | 776 | 545 | 231 | 357 | 372 | 13 | 34 | 20 | 44 | 20 | 131 | 97 | |
| 25 | Waywardtrends | 0.6843 | 0.5111 | 12.7776 | 0.8167 | 264.981 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 392 | 375 | 35 | 9 | 27 | 35 | 28 | 134 | 125 | |
| 26 | Edward Kambour | 0.6886 | 0.4856 | 12.6617 | 0.5814 | 259.395 | 774 | 533 | 241 | 372 | 394 | 29 | 38 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 135 | 97 | |
| 27 | Versus Sports Simulator | 0.6973 | 0.4758 | 12.7339 | 0.7699 | 262.842 | 773 | 539 | 234 | 364 | 401 | 17 | 49 | 25 | 32 | 26 | 149 | 100 | |
| 28 | Dave Congrove | 0.6843 | 0.5072 | 12.9343 | 0.9805 | 267.934 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 389 | 378 | 35 | 13 | 33 | 40 | 30 | 151 | 138 | |
| 29 | Roundtable | 0.6834 | 0.5030 | 13.0444 | 0.5502 | 279.380 | 518 | 354 | 164 | 253 | 250 | 38 | 18 | 36 | 20 | 41 | 153 | 135 | |
| 30 | Moore Power Ratings | 0.6800 | 0.4817 | 13.1106 | (0.0252) | 276.591 | 775 | 527 | 248 | 369 | 397 | 42 | 40 | 39 | 2 | 34 | 157 | 117 | |
| 31 | Keeper | 0.6955 | 0.5248 | 13.1567 | 1.6739 | 279.270 | 775 | 539 | 236 | 402 | 364 | 20 | 4 | 42 | 53 | 40 | 159 | 155 | |
| 32 | Brent Craig | 0.7033 | 0.4549 | 12.6782 | 1.2032 | 256.102 | 728 | 512 | 216 | 328 | 393 | 12 | 58 | 24 | 47 | 21 | 162 | 104 | |
| 33 | Stat Fox | 0.6901 | 0.4925 | 12.7449 | 2.0602 | 262.238 | 768 | 530 | 238 | 362 | 373 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 56 | 25 | 162 | 134 | |
| 34 | Dunkel Index | 0.6965 | 0.4963 | 13.0713 | 1.2361 | 279.665 | 682 | 475 | 207 | 336 | 341 | 19 | 23 | 37 | 48 | 42 | 169 | 146 | |
| 35 | Daniel Curry Index | 0.6856 | 0.5007 | 13.1672 | 0.7610 | 280.958 | 773 | 530 | 243 | 383 | 382 | 33 | 21 | 43 | 31 | 43 | 171 | 150 | |
| 36 | ARGH Power Ratings | 0.6753 | 0.4789 | 13.0938 | (0.0512) | 276.669 | 776 | 524 | 252 | 352 | 383 | 47 | 47 | 38 | 6 | 35 | 173 | 126 | |
| 37 | FEI Projections | 0.6757 | 0.4943 | 12.6622 | (1.6793) | 261.959 | 626 | 423 | 203 | 305 | 312 | 46 | 26 | 23 | 54 | 24 | 173 | 147 | |
| 38 | Linear Regression | 0.6848 | 0.4957 | 12.8546 | 1.3205 | 278.097 | 349 | 239 | 110 | 171 | 174 | 34 | 24 | 29 | 50 | 37 | 174 | 150 | |
| 39 | Billingsley | 0.6645 | 0.5026 | 13.4379 | 0.1611 | 292.406 | 775 | 515 | 260 | 385 | 381 | 51 | 19 | 48 | 10 | 48 | 176 | 157 | |
| 40 | Laffaye RWP | 0.6828 | 0.4804 | 13.5330 | (0.0155) | 291.424 | 722 | 493 | 229 | 343 | 371 | 39 | 43 | 50 | 1 | 47 | 180 | 137 | |
| 41 | Bihl System | 0.6732 | 0.4816 | 12.8694 | 0.7020 | 271.105 | 410 | 276 | 134 | 196 | 211 | 49 | 41 | 31 | 28 | 31 | 180 | 139 | |
| 42 | Born Power Index | 0.6946 | 0.4792 | 13.0384 | 1.2843 | 276.156 | 776 | 539 | 237 | 368 | 400 | 21 | 45 | 34 | 49 | 33 | 182 | 137 | |
| 43 | DP Dwiggins | 0.6929 | 0.4866 | 13.2723 | (0.9342) | 283.183 | 775 | 537 | 238 | 362 | 382 | 24 | 36 | 45 | 38 | 46 | 189 | 153 | |
| 44 | Payne Predict | 0.6843 | 0.4732 | 13.1513 | 0.7929 | 278.935 | 776 | 531 | 245 | 362 | 403 | 35 | 50 | 41 | 34 | 38 | 198 | 148 | |
| 45 | Beck Elo | 0.6778 | 0.4804 | 13.1371 | 0.8316 | 277.478 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 367 | 397 | 43 | 44 | 40 | 36 | 36 | 199 | 155 | |
| 46 | Payne W/L | 0.6585 | 0.4896 | 13.5289 | (0.2410) | 295.208 | 776 | 511 | 265 | 375 | 391 | 54 | 35 | 49 | 12 | 50 | 200 | 165 | |
| 47 | Howell | 0.6766 | 0.4768 | 13.4124 | 0.2463 | 294.056 | 776 | 525 | 251 | 350 | 384 | 45 | 48 | 47 | 13 | 49 | 202 | 154 | |
| 48 | Stephen Kerns | 0.6907 | 0.4843 | 13.8967 | 0.7545 | 312.164 | 776 | 536 | 240 | 370 | 394 | 26 | 39 | 51 | 30 | 56 | 202 | 163 | |
| 49 | Logistic Regression | 0.6476 | 0.5362 | 14.2849 | (0.8567) | 362.924 | 349 | 226 | 123 | 185 | 160 | 58 | 1 | 57 | 37 | 58 | 211 | 210 | |
| 50 | Massey Consensus | 0.6817 | 0.4701 | 13.0411 | 1.4341 | 279.200 | 776 | 529 | 247 | 361 | 407 | 40 | 51 | 35 | 51 | 39 | 216 | 165 | |
| 51 | Loudsound.org | 0.6644 | 0.5168 | 13.9540 | (3.3022) | 309.256 | 718 | 477 | 241 | 354 | 331 | 52 | 8 | 52 | 58 | 52 | 222 | 214 | |
| 52 | Least Squares w/ HFA | 0.6623 | 0.5351 | 14.3719 | 1.5603 | 327.602 | 302 | 200 | 102 | 160 | 139 | 53 | 2 | 58 | 52 | 57 | 222 | 220 | |
| 53 | PerformanZ Ratings | 0.6662 | 0.4857 | 14.0026 | 0.9886 | 310.134 | 776 | 517 | 259 | 373 | 395 | 50 | 37 | 54 | 41 | 54 | 236 | 199 | |
| 54 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.6482 | 0.4700 | 14.0045 | 0.5626 | 310.485 | 776 | 503 | 273 | 352 | 397 | 56 | 52 | 55 | 21 | 55 | 239 | 187 | |
| 55 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.6477 | 0.4693 | 13.9703 | 0.6156 | 308.769 | 775 | 502 | 273 | 351 | 397 | 57 | 53 | 53 | 26 | 51 | 240 | 187 | |
| 56 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.6778 | 0.4614 | 13.2668 | 1.9858 | 281.530 | 776 | 526 | 250 | 341 | 398 | 43 | 56 | 44 | 55 | 44 | 242 | 186 | |
| 57 | Cleanup Hitter | 0.6567 | 0.4661 | 14.0518 | 0.7276 | 309.980 | 734 | 482 | 252 | 330 | 378 | 55 | 55 | 56 | 29 | 53 | 248 | 193 | |
| 58 | Catherwood Ratings | 0.6744 | 0.4558 | 13.3365 | 2.1458 | 281.862 | 734 | 495 | 239 | 320 | 382 | 48 | 57 | 46 | 57 | 45 | 253 | 196 |
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