FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 5 - October 1

The first of two posts this week, with a recap of the month of September coming tomorrow, digging into all the numbers the Book has produced for September as well as some non Book related numbers that tell the story of the 2022 Boston College football season to date.

Had a really rough week against the spread in week 4, going just 22-37 and down to .407 overall for the year.

In 14 of the 59 games, our projected spread was within 1 point of the Caesar's Palace Thursday morning line, which is what Prediction Tracker monitors, just found ourselves too consistently on the wrong side of the ledger.

That said, we continue to do well picking winners and quite well in absolute error, just in general how accurate our spreads are to the final score.

Ohio State takes over the top spot in our combined rankings, up two spots from third, after trouncing Wisconsin. The Buckeyes flip flop with Georgia, who showed some vulnerability in a less than inspiring effort against Kent State.

That has our top five as Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan and Penn State.

Speaking of uninspiring, Boston College continues to fall. We'll get into more detail tomorrow, but the Eagles are down another six spots to #111, last in the ACC and third from the bottom of all Power Five teams, ahead of only Northwestern (114) and woeful Colorado (122).

The Eagles are a 12.2 point underdog hosting Louisville on Saturday, but beware, BC is 0-4 against the Vegas spread, 0-3 using the Book spread vs Vegas and are one of the nation's largest underacheivers to date.

Our picks this week stay away from some of the season's bad actors and focus on a niche bet, that being large favorites against the money line. Yes, those are risky due to potential loss, but to date this year, teams favored between 20 and 25 points, by both Vegas and the Book at 14-0.

This week, that means taking BYU to beat Utah State and Fresno State to beat UConn. New Mexico +16.0 vs UNLV as well as Bowling Green and North Carolina on the ML are our other picks.

This Week's Picks
My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
BYU (2500) Utah St
Fresno St (2500) Connecticut
New Mexico 16.0 UNLV
Bowling Green (238) Akron
North Carolina (333) Virginia Tech

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 OHIO ST 4 0 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 2
2 ALABAMA 4 0 1 7 1 2 1 2 2 2 0
3 GEORGIA 4 0 3 5 3 1 3 1 1 3 (2)
4 MICHIGAN 4 0 4 13 5 6 4 4 4 6 2
5 PENN ST 4 0 10 4 9 4 13 11 12 5 (1)
6 TENNESSEE 4 0 8 6 17 7 12 8 9 4 1
7 CLEMSON 4 0 7 11 12 5 5 5 5 9 1
8 USC 4 0 17 3 7 9 9 6 6 7 2
9 MISSISSIPPI 4 0 12 12 13 8 11 14 11 14 3
10 MINNESOTA 4 0 9 17 10 10 14 21 23 11 11
11 KENTUCKY 4 0 24 8 27 12 30 7 8 10 0
12 FLORIDA ST 4 0 26 9 29 18 22 23 22 8 5
13 WASHINGTON 4 0 27 10 11 22 18 15 18 15 3
14 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 0 25 15 30 14 31 10 10 12 (1)
15 SYRACUSE 4 0 50 2 51 30 40 25 13 0
16 OKLAHOMA 3 1 5 27 4 15 8 18 16 22 (11)
17 UCLA 4 0 43 18 42 29 38 17 8
18 UTAH 3 1 6 42 6 19 10 12 13 18 19
19 OREGON 3 1 20 22 15 13 21 13 15 26 10
20 OKLAHOMA ST 3 0 16 30 19 17 20 9 7 21 (2)
21 ARKANSAS 3 1 28 19 32 24 42 20 19 27 (12)
22 MISSISSIPPI ST 3 1 23 25 24 26 19 16 10
23 TEXAS A&M 3 1 18 33 21 27 33 17 17 19 13
24 KANSAS ST 3 1 22 26 18 23 26 25 29 22
25 TCU 3 0 29 20 28 35 28 20 10
26 LSU 3 1 11 46 8 21 7 24 13
27 CINCINNATI 3 1 19 44 23 16 17 31 16
28 BAYLOR 3 1 15 47 14 11 15 16 14 32 20
29 KANSAS 4 0 68 14 49 37 55 30 1
30 MARYLAND 3 1 35 23 35 41 24 37 (10)
31 IOWA 3 1 30 31 31 34 41 33 11
32 BYU 3 1 38 21 33 25 36 19 20 23 1
33 OREGON ST 3 1 33 32 25 38 37 25 (19)
34 PITTSBURGH 3 1 32 36 39 33 34 24 24 28 (3)
35 IOWA ST 3 1 36 38 26 20 25 35 (16)
36 COASTAL CAROLINA 4 0 73 16 76 53 84 36 (2)
37 AUBURN 3 1 51 29 55 47 52 34 13
38 TEXAS TECH 3 1 41 41 46 36 47 40 15
39 WAKE FOREST 3 1 44 43 45 32 46 22 21 50 (15)
40 UCF 3 1 39 49 40 43 27 43 11
41 NOTRE DAME 2 2 14 61 20 31 16 38 24
42 ILLINOIS 3 1 45 40 44 40 49 41 10
43 TEXAS 2 2 13 62 16 28 6 49 (17)
44 WASHINGTON ST 3 1 53 35 37 45 60 44 (22)
45 NORTH CAROLINA 3 1 49 45 58 58 50 39 (22)
46 CALIFORNIA 3 1 54 28 36 52 54 45 8
47 AIR FORCE 3 1 48 48 43 48 53 42 16
48 MEMPHIS 3 1 64 37 65 64 59 48 9
49 INDIANA 3 1 75 24 75 56 75 53 (22)
50 FLORIDA 2 2 40 60 34 49 45 51 (10)
51 WISCONSIN 2 2 21 72 22 42 23 54 (10)
52 WESTERN KENTUCKY 3 1 55 52 59 55 43 58 14
53 JAMES MADISON 3 0 79 34 52 39 65 52 14
54 MICHIGAN ST 2 2 31 69 47 51 29 57 (16)
55 LIBERTY 3 1 78 39 85 57 70 55 4
56 LOUISVILLE 2 2 37 65 41 46 44 46 22
57 TULANE 3 1 63 56 61 62 51 47 (29)
58 SOUTH ALABAMA 3 1 74 50 64 60 62 62 14
59 SOUTH CAROLINA 2 2 47 66 60 66 58 63 17
60 PURDUE 2 2 42 75 48 44 35 60 20
61 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3 1 87 54 82 68 78 64 21
62 MIAMI FL 2 2 34 92 50 63 32 59 (13)
63 UNLV 3 1 90 55 80 75 88 77 16
64 RUTGERS 3 1 86 58 97 77 79 73 (19)
65 DUKE 3 1 93 51 66 74 69 70 (21)
66 APPALACHIAN ST 2 2 57 67 53 50 56 56 (19)
67 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 1 98 57 95 85 86 61 14
68 WEST VIRGINIA 2 2 46 86 38 54 39 69 23
69 HOUSTON 2 2 59 70 68 61 67 75 14
70 VANDERBILT 3 2 102 53 98 79 93 68 (14)
71 SMU 2 2 52 85 56 65 48 67 (9)
72 WYOMING 3 2 100 59 86 72 99 74 (17)
73 UAB 2 1 62 71 62 59 57 65 (3)
74 MISSOURI 2 2 56 78 74 70 64 83 (10)
75 VIRGINIA 2 2 69 76 73 69 73 76 (6)
76 ARIZONA 2 2 88 63 72 87 82 71 (16)
77 TULSA 2 2 71 77 57 67 68 78 (3)
78 SAN JOSE ST 2 1 91 64 77 86 96 72 15
79 BOISE ST 2 2 60 88 63 81 74 79 (21)
80 UTSA 2 2 72 79 87 73 81 86 4
81 EAST CAROLINA 2 2 65 90 71 71 72 66 (20)
82 TROY 2 2 82 81 81 80 83 82 20
83 SAN DIEGO ST 2 2 80 83 91 90 97 88 15
84 VIRGINIA TECH 2 2 81 91 93 92 89 80 (13)
85 TOLEDO 2 2 77 94 89 91 87 84 (10)
86 LOUISIANA 2 2 83 93 88 83 91 95 (18)
87 OLD DOMINION 2 2 101 73 101 97 102 81 10
88 MARSHALL 2 2 76 95 79 78 61 87 (15)
89 MIAMI OH 2 2 96 84 96 88 104 90 17
90 SOUTHERN MISS 2 2 95 89 92 93 85 85 22
91 FRESNO ST 1 2 66 100 69 76 71 89 1
92 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 2 3 84 97 84 98 76 91 (5)
93 STANFORD 1 2 70 103 54 82 63 93 (8)
94 ARMY 1 2 67 105 78 84 66 99 2
95 LA MONROE 2 2 122 68 122 99 114 97 19
96 ARIZONA ST 1 3 58 110 67 94 80 96 (7)
97 RICE 2 2 115 80 107 95 107 98 (11)
98 OHIO 2 2 120 74 115 102 119 92 2
99 NEBRASKA 1 3 61 116 90 100 77 94 5
100 EASTERN MICHIGAN 2 2 112 87 108 114 116 102 (23)
101 NEW MEXICO 2 2 119 82 109 111 113 101 (13)
102 GEORGIA TECH 1 3 99 106 104 107 98 114 (7)
103 KENT ST 1 3 94 108 70 96 90 113 6
104 NEVADA 2 3 111 99 111 104 112 111 (14)
105 NAVY 1 2 107 101 103 101 111 100 18
106 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1 3 85 117 83 89 94 104 1
107 UTEP 2 3 118 96 117 116 118 103 13
108 NORTH TEXAS 2 3 110 104 114 112 108 105 (9)
109 TEMPLE 2 2 121 98 116 122 121 115 10
110 WESTERN MICHIGAN 1 3 104 109 106 110 115 108 (16)
111 BOSTON COLLEGE 1 3 89 121 105 106 95 106 (6)
112 UTAH ST 1 3 108 107 110 109 120 118 (11)
113 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 1 3 92 122 94 103 105 109 2
114 NORTHWESTERN 1 3 97 119 100 113 103 110 (11)
115 BUFFALO 1 3 106 115 99 105 101 120 15
116 TEXAS ST 2 2 123 102 124 119 110 117 1
117 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 3 105 118 118 115 109 107 (7)
118 LOUISIANA TECH 1 3 113 112 113 120 100 121 (10)
119 BOWLING GREEN 1 3 116 113 121 117 123 112 (6)
120 ARKANSAS ST 1 3 109 120 102 108 92 116 (9)
121 BALL ST 1 3 117 123 112 123 122 119 (5)
122 COLORADO 0 4 114 129 119 121 117 123 (1)
123 AKRON 1 3 128 114 129 124 127 122 (5)
124 GEORGIA ST 0 4 103 131 120 118 106 124 1
125 CHARLOTTE 1 4 125 127 127 127 124 125 (1)
126 NEW MEXICO ST 1 4 127 125 125 128 126 127 5
127 CONNECTICUT 1 4 126 126 126 125 128 126 2
128 COLORADO ST 0 4 124 130 123 126 125 128 0
129 FLORIDA INTL 1 2 131 111 130 131 131 130 (7)
130 HAWAII 1 4 129 128 128 129 129 131 (4)
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 3 130 124 131 130 130 129 (4)
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 4 0 7 11 12 5 5 5 5 9 0
2 FLORIDA ST 4 0 26 9 29 18 22 23 22 8 2
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 0 25 15 30 14 31 10 10 12 (1)
4 SYRACUSE 4 0 50 2 51 30 40 25 13 (1)
5 PITTSBURGH 3 1 32 36 39 33 34 24 24 28 2
6 WAKE FOREST 3 1 44 43 45 32 46 22 21 50 0
7 NORTH CAROLINA 3 1 49 45 58 58 50 39 (2)
8 LOUISVILLE 2 2 37 65 41 46 44 46 4
9 MIAMI FL 2 2 34 92 50 63 32 59 0
10 DUKE 3 1 93 51 66 74 69 70 (2)
11 VIRGINIA 2 2 69 76 73 69 73 76 (1)
12 VIRGINIA TECH 2 2 81 91 93 92 89 80 (1)
13 GEORGIA TECH 1 3 99 106 104 107 98 114 0
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 1 3 89 121 105 106 95 106 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at BYU 22.7 Utah St 90%
at Houston 4.1 Tulane 62%
at Boise St 6.7 San Diego St 78%
Washington 2.4 at UCLA 56%
Alabama 18.3 at Arkansas 86%
LSU 8.2 at Auburn 70%
at Mississippi 5.7 Kentucky 65%
at Mississippi St 2.0 Texas A&M 56%
Georgia 25.7 at Missouri 93%
at Arizona 10.4 Colorado 75%
at USC 15.7 Arizona St 83%
at Washington St 3.7 California 60%
at Oregon 17.0 Stanford 85%
at Utah 11.4 Oregon St 76%
at Baylor 3.3 Oklahoma St 60%
Iowa St 8.2 at Kansas 70%
at Kansas St 8.6 Texas Tech 72%
Oklahoma 5.3 at TCU 64%
at Texas 12.3 West Virginia 78%
Liberty 2.5 at Old Dominion 57%
at Wisconsin 9.5 Illinois 74%
Michigan 8.5 at Iowa 71%
at Nebraska 4.9 Indiana 62%
at Penn St 27.1 Northwestern 93%
Louisville 12.2 at Boston College 78%
at Clemson 8.5 North Carolina St 72%
Virginia 2.2 at Duke 56%
at Florida St 7.8 Wake Forest 70%
at North Carolina 11.9 Virginia Tech 77%
at Pittsburgh 19.4 Georgia Tech 88%
East Carolina 9.0 at South Florida 72%
Cincinnati 13.0 at Tulsa 80%
at Memphis 18.6 Temple 87%
at UCF 7.5 SMU 70%
Northern Illinois 5.8 at Ball St 65%
at Coastal Carolina 8.3 Georgia Southern 70%
at James Madison 15.8 Texas St 84%
at Arkansas St 6.4 LA Monroe 67%
at Louisiana 0.5 South Alabama 51%
at New Mexico St 10.7 Florida Intl 75%
at Army 11.0 Georgia St 76%
at Minnesota 12.0 Purdue 77%
at Air Force 19.3 Navy 87%
at Eastern Michigan 19.0 Massachusetts 87%
Fresno St 20.1 at Connecticut 89%
at Ohio St 37.9 Rutgers 97%
at Toledo 3.7 Central Michigan 60%
Bowling Green 8.8 at Akron 72%
at Buffalo 0.0 Miami OH 50%
at Kent St 11.6 Ohio 76%
Florida Atlantic 5.2 at North Texas 64%
UTEP 3.1 at Charlotte 59%
at Western Kentucky 7.9 Troy 70%
at Wyoming 0.0 San Jose St 50%
UTSA 0.4 at Middle Tennessee 51%
UAB 11.3 at Rice 76%
at UNLV 10.7 New Mexico 75%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 1 1 0.500
Total 2 1 0.667
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 0 2 0.000
Total 0 3 0.000
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 22 37 0.373
Previous 61 84 0.421
Total 83 121 0.40686
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 47 13 0.783
Previous 113 37 0.753
Total 160 50 0.76190
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.1067 58
Previous 12.5010 150
Total 12.6699 208
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Winners T8 50
vs Spread 45 50
Absolute Error 13 50
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St 1-0 0-1
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss (0.78) (3.30)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 2.50 (3.30)
Money Line Picks Units
Week (1.00)
Previous (0.81)
Total (1.81)
Spread Picks Units
Week (2.30)
Previous 1.30
Total (1.00)
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4 (2.30) 1 3
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (1.00) 10 10
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4 (1.00) 0 1
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (1.81) 5 8