FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 4 - September 24

The first third of the season concludes this week, with Boston College searching for a much needed victory at Florida State. After a lackluster win vs Maine, the Eagles still find themselves at the bottom of ACC in the Book and most other computer power rating systems.

Boston College is currently #105, up 6 spots from last week, in the nation in our rankings. 78th in the power ratings (how good you are) and 116 in terms of the strength of your record (a win over Maine doesn't account for much).

The Eagles are 15.6 point dogs at Florida State this week. Vegas has them as 16 1/2 point underdogs, so the Book leans toward BC vs the spread and FSU on the money line.

BC opened the season with a Vegas win total of 6 1/2. The Book had them at 5.64, so taking the under. Based on current ratings, BC is at 3.55 wins for the season, being favored in just two games (UConn and Duke). The Eagles currently have no more than a 29.7% chance to win any of the other games and are sub 3% to beat Clemson, North Carolina St or Notre Dame.

On the national level, Georgia moves into the top spot after their drubbing of South Carolina. Alabama slides down to #2, while Ohio State holds at third. Penn State is up to #4 after their convincing win at perhaps suspect Auburn.

In terms of how well we've done against the Prediction Tracker metrics, it continues to hold that the New Book is better vs the Vegas lines, while our current Book is slightly better predicting game results (absolute error).

Next week, we'll take a look at strength of schedule to date, along with over and under achievers.

Definitely struggling with my top picks, although still net positive for the year. The money line which was so good in 2021 has been just as bad this year. Let's see how this week goes.

This Week's Picks
My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
Hawaii 110 at New Mexico St
at Colorado 21.0 UCLA
Nevada 24.5 at Air Force
Louisiana (11.0) at LA Monroe
at Oregon St 6.5 USC

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 3 0 1 5 2 1 1 1 1 2 1
2 ALABAMA 3 0 2 6 1 2 2 2 2 3 (1)
3 OHIO ST 3 0 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 0
4 PENN ST 3 0 8 2 6 6 10 14 15 5 5
5 OKLAHOMA 3 0 5 14 4 5 9 6 6 7 2
6 MICHIGAN 3 0 4 22 5 4 4 4 4 6 (2)
7 TENNESSEE 3 0 7 11 14 7 8 11 12 4 (1)
8 CLEMSON 3 0 6 18 11 8 5 5 5 11 0
9 ARKANSAS 3 0 28 1 33 14 38 10 10 15 (4)
10 USC 3 0 20 7 7 17 11 7 7 12 8
11 KENTUCKY 3 0 13 13 18 11 26 8 9 9 (1)
12 MISSISSIPPI 3 0 9 21 9 9 7 16 13 16 5
13 NORTH CAROLINA ST 3 0 22 19 24 12 33 12 11 8 7
14 OREGON ST 3 0 34 8 26 27 36 10 5
15 SYRACUSE 3 0 41 4 42 36 34 14 9
16 WASHINGTON 3 0 29 17 15 29 22 18 24 19 12
17 FLORIDA ST 3 0 35 15 38 33 31 13 5
18 OKLAHOMA ST 3 0 16 27 17 10 17 8 8 18 (7)
19 IOWA ST 3 0 31 16 19 13 27 17 2
20 MARYLAND 3 0 39 10 44 39 29 23 7
21 MINNESOTA 3 0 17 30 22 22 19 20 8
22 WASHINGTON ST 3 0 55 12 40 41 62 24 13
23 NORTH CAROLINA 3 0 40 25 61 44 41 22 (10)
24 WAKE FOREST 3 0 45 24 39 21 40 21 16 30 7
25 UCLA 3 0 47 29 46 37 46 26 8
26 TEXAS 2 1 10 41 8 15 6 22 19 28 8
27 INDIANA 3 0 75 9 68 60 79 33 14
28 TULANE 3 0 58 26 50 50 43 21 21
29 OREGON 2 1 15 38 12 20 21 15 18 35 19
30 KANSAS 3 0 72 20 48 49 53 32 22
31 PITTSBURGH 2 1 27 34 29 23 24 24 27 13
32 MISSISSIPPI ST 2 1 25 37 25 31 18 25 (20)
33 BYU 2 1 36 36 35 26 35 19 23 29 (19)
34 COASTAL CAROLINA 3 0 83 23 83 66 92 47 16
35 TCU 2 0 30 42 31 47 39 36 (12)
36 TEXAS A&M 2 1 19 51 21 25 32 23 20 31 18
37 UTAH 2 1 11 62 10 16 13 13 14 37 10
38 MICHIGAN ST 2 1 24 50 30 24 16 21 44 (23)
39 LSU 2 1 14 56 16 30 12 34 22
40 FLORIDA 2 1 42 35 43 43 44 20 22 39 5
41 WISCONSIN 2 1 12 63 13 28 20 40 15
42 IOWA 2 1 37 45 32 35 48 46 15
43 CINCINNATI 2 1 23 54 27 19 23 43 8
44 DUKE 3 0 89 28 76 85 74 55 2
45 RUTGERS 3 0 79 31 95 77 72 58 8
46 KANSAS ST 2 1 32 52 28 34 37 45 (30)
47 APPALACHIAN ST 2 1 51 40 54 45 50 38 17
48 BAYLOR 2 1 21 72 20 18 14 17 17 49 10
49 MIAMI FL 2 1 26 71 34 40 15 25 25 41 (23)
50 AUBURN 2 1 44 49 60 52 51 42 (25)
51 UCF 2 1 38 66 36 48 28 52 23
52 ILLINOIS 2 1 53 48 52 42 57 50 (10)
53 TEXAS TECH 2 1 46 59 55 46 47 54 (21)
54 CALIFORNIA 2 1 62 43 45 67 61 63 (15)
55 WYOMING 3 1 103 32 89 83 104 67 30
56 VANDERBILT 3 1 95 33 86 78 87 61 22
57 MEMPHIS 2 1 61 46 58 69 55 57 16
58 BOISE ST 2 1 52 55 41 53 54 59 10
59 LIBERTY 2 1 67 44 67 55 59 62 (21)
60 ARIZONA 2 1 80 39 62 84 77 53 19
61 EAST CAROLINA 2 1 57 60 57 58 60 48 11
62 SMU 2 1 48 69 56 51 42 60 (25)
63 AIR FORCE 2 1 49 68 49 54 65 51 (33)
64 MISSOURI 2 1 60 57 79 71 71 72 7
65 NOTRE DAME 1 2 18 85 23 32 25 56 12
66 WESTERN KENTUCKY 2 1 71 64 80 62 66 75 (23)
67 JAMES MADISON 2 0 87 47 63 57 75 88 (1)
68 LOUISIANA 2 1 74 67 70 61 81 76 (32)
69 VIRGINIA 2 1 76 58 88 79 82 68 17
70 UAB 2 1 64 77 59 56 56 65 19
71 VIRGINIA TECH 2 1 69 73 78 75 78 64 5
72 SOUTH ALABAMA 2 1 84 65 74 70 73 78 (9)
73 MARSHALL 2 1 73 79 64 68 58 71 (33)
74 TULSA 2 1 81 70 72 74 84 69 16
75 TOLEDO 2 1 77 76 82 79 86 70 (20)
76 SOUTH CAROLINA 1 2 50 83 71 65 67 77 (17)
77 EASTERN MICHIGAN 2 1 106 53 93 96 120 81 24
78 LOUISVILLE 1 2 43 90 51 59 49 66 (18)
79 UNLV 2 1 92 74 77 87 91 84 24
80 PURDUE 1 2 33 99 37 38 30 73 (18)
81 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 1 98 78 92 90 85 74 (14)
82 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 2 1 96 80 99 91 94 86 14
83 HOUSTON 1 2 54 94 66 64 63 82 (18)
84 UTSA 1 2 66 89 73 73 69 83 (9)
85 STANFORD 1 1 70 88 53 81 64 79 2
86 RICE 2 1 120 61 112 97 107 89 27
87 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 2 2 90 82 90 99 80 80 (17)
88 NEW MEXICO 2 1 118 75 104 111 108 95 20
89 ARIZONA ST 1 2 59 109 65 76 52 85 (20)
90 NEVADA 2 2 109 81 108 100 110 107 (8)
91 WEST VIRGINIA 1 2 56 113 47 63 45 91 15
92 FRESNO ST 1 2 65 101 69 72 70 90 (12)
93 SAN JOSE ST 1 1 101 84 96 105 105 87 4
94 WESTERN MICHIGAN 1 2 91 92 91 89 102 94 (10)
95 GEORGIA TECH 1 2 97 91 106 108 99 108 (7)
96 ARMY 1 2 68 112 75 82 68 100 18
97 OLD DOMINION 1 2 100 96 105 98 101 92 (4)
98 SAN DIEGO ST 1 2 82 110 87 88 95 103 (6)
99 NORTH TEXAS 2 2 112 87 120 114 111 98 (16)
100 OHIO 1 2 117 86 109 112 114 96 (6)
101 UTAH ST 1 2 107 95 116 101 116 110 1
102 TROY 1 2 86 105 94 93 83 97 (7)
103 NORTHWESTERN 1 2 88 107 98 103 100 101 (22)
104 NEBRASKA 1 3 63 121 85 92 76 93 (13)
105 BOSTON COLLEGE 1 2 78 116 100 95 89 102 6
106 MIAMI OH 1 2 99 102 97 94 106 106 (8)
107 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1 2 85 117 81 86 93 104 8
108 LOUISIANA TECH 1 2 108 100 110 115 97 115 (3)
109 KENT ST 1 2 105 104 84 102 96 114 7
110 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 2 94 114 107 106 103 99 (10)
111 ARKANSAS ST 1 2 111 106 101 109 88 113 (7)
112 SOUTHERN MISS 1 2 104 115 102 110 90 105 8
113 BOWLING GREEN 1 2 115 108 118 117 123 109 14
114 LA MONROE 1 2 125 93 122 118 118 116 (7)
115 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 1 2 102 119 103 107 113 111 (16)
116 BALL ST 1 2 116 111 111 113 117 112 6
117 TEXAS ST 1 2 122 103 125 121 112 118 (8)
118 AKRON 1 2 129 97 129 127 129 119 0
119 TEMPLE 1 2 124 120 121 122 124 125 0
120 UTEP 1 3 121 122 123 124 125 122 (10)
121 COLORADO 0 3 110 127 117 116 115 120 (4)
122 FLORIDA INTL 1 1 131 98 130 131 130 127 4
123 NAVY 0 2 114 126 115 119 119 121 0
124 CHARLOTTE 1 3 123 124 126 126 122 123 6
125 GEORGIA ST 0 3 93 129 114 104 98 117 (13)
126 HAWAII 1 3 126 123 124 125 128 128 2
127 MASSACHUSETTS 1 2 130 118 131 129 127 124 2
128 COLORADO ST 0 3 119 128 119 123 121 126 (7)
129 CONNECTICUT 1 3 127 125 127 128 126 129 (4)
130 BUFFALO 0 3 113 130 113 120 109 130 (6)
131 NEW MEXICO ST 0 4 128 131 128 130 131 131 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 3 0 6 18 11 8 5 5 5 11 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA ST 3 0 22 19 24 12 33 12 11 8 1
3 SYRACUSE 3 0 41 4 42 36 34 14 2
4 FLORIDA ST 3 0 35 15 38 33 31 13 0
5 NORTH CAROLINA 3 0 40 25 61 44 41 22 (3)
6 WAKE FOREST 3 0 45 24 39 21 40 21 16 30 1
7 PITTSBURGH 2 1 27 34 29 23 24 24 27 1
8 DUKE 3 0 89 28 76 85 74 55 1
9 MIAMI FL 2 1 26 71 34 40 15 25 25 41 (3)
10 VIRGINIA 2 1 76 58 88 79 82 68 2
11 VIRGINIA TECH 2 1 69 73 78 75 78 64 0
12 LOUISVILLE 1 2 43 90 51 59 49 66 (2)
13 GEORGIA TECH 1 2 97 91 106 108 99 108 0
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 1 2 78 116 100 95 89 102 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
West Virginia 1.1 at Virginia Tech 53%
Coastal Carolina 0.6 at Georgia St 52%
at Syracuse 12.7 Virginia 79%
at Air Force 18.6 Nevada 86%
Boise St 19.1 at UTEP 87%
at Alabama 41.2 Vanderbilt 97%
Texas A&M 5.2 Arkansas 63%
at Auburn 8.1 Missouri 70%
at Kentucky 26.7 Northern Illinois 92%
at Mississippi 23.8 Tulsa 91%
at Mississippi St 28.5 Bowling Green 93%
at Tennessee 14.0 Florida 80%
at California 6.1 Arizona 66%
Utah 11.5 at Arizona St 76%
UCLA 14.5 at Colorado 81%
Oregon 9.5 at Washington St 73%
USC 1.7 at Oregon St 55%
at Washington 14.0 Stanford 80%
TCU 3.5 at SMU 59%
at Kansas 7.5 Duke 69%
Baylor 0.6 at Iowa St 52%
at Oklahoma 14.6 Kansas St 81%
Texas 8.9 at Texas Tech 72%
Notre Dame 4.2 at North Carolina 61%
at North Carolina St 39.2 Connecticut 96%
at Liberty 28.4 Akron 93%
Iowa 11.0 at Rutgers 75%
at Michigan St 1.0 Minnesota 53%
at Northwestern 4.5 Miami OH 62%
at Ohio St 15.6 Wisconsin 83%
at Cincinnati 17.7 Indiana 85%
at Penn St 26.3 Central Michigan 92%
Hawai 3.9 at New Mexico St 60%
at Florida St 15.6 Boston College 83%
at Louisville 15.5 South Florida 83%
at UCF 18.7 Georgia Tech 86%
Clemson 10.4 at Wake Forest 74%
at Temple 11.9 Massachusetts 77%
at Appalachian St 12.0 James Madison 77%
at Tulane 15.0 Southern Miss 82%
at BYU 21.4 Wyoming 88%
at San Diego St 2.0 Toledo 55%
at East Carolina 17.9 Navy 85%
at Eastern Michigan 6.1 Buffalo 66%
at Georgia Southern 8.1 Ball St 70%
at Old Dominion 5.7 Arkansas St 65%
Louisiana 16.1 at LA Monroe 83%
Marshall 3.2 at Troy 59%
at South Carolina 24.7 Charlotte 91%
at South Alabama 8.6 Louisiana Tech 71%
at Miami FL 23.3 Middle Tennessee 89%
at Memphis 15.9 North Texas 83%
at Houston 21.3 Rice 88%
at Georgia 44.4 Kent St 97%
at Michigan 18.4 Maryland 86
at Western Kentucky 30.9 Florida Intl 94%
UNLV 0.5 at Utah St 52%
at LSU 30.5 New Mexico 94%
at Purdue 18.4 Florida Atlantic 86%
at San Jose St 0.8 Western Michigan 52%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 0 1 0.000
Total 1 1 0.500
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 0 1 0.000
Total 0 2 0.000
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 23 27 0.460
Previous 38 57 0.400
Total 61 84 0.42069
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 39 11 0.780
Previous 74 26 0.740
Total 113 37 0.75333
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.7100 50
Previous 11.8965 100
Total 12.5010 150
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Winners T15 48
vs Spread T38 48
Absolute Error 15 48
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss (1.78) (2.20)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 1.50 (2.20)
Money Line Picks Units
Week (5.35)
Previous 4.54
Total (0.81)
Spread Picks Units
Week (1.40)
Previous 2.70
Total 1.30
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 1.30 9 7
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (0.81) 5 7