Last Saturday, the Eagles notched their first win of the season against FCS opponent Maine in a rather unresounding 38-17 victory in Chestnut Hill. As is common with FBS vs FCS opponents, Vegas odds are not usually live until the day of kick-off or, in some other occassions, a day prior. Probably because barely anyone in Vegas has any interest in investing their money in a game of such little excitement.
Nonetheless, I was able to catch a line right before the start of the game where BC was favored -31.50. I did not want to play foolish with my money so I did not end up going anywhere near that line. Especially since my gut check was telling me that this was a rather high spread that Vegas was given the lowly Eagles so I didn’t bother. Good thing I went with my gut as BC, for the third time this season, failed to cover their opening spread.
As to be expected, there was a lot to still be desired by this Eagles team who, at times on Saturday, looked to be on upset alert against an extremely low-caliber opponent. Jurkovec continues to look as though he has regressed since taking on the starting job, the O-Line struggles continue with now another season-ending injury to Tackle Kevin Cline coming to light, and a staggnant offense where it seems the only real playcall is Phil to Zay. While a win is a win, the fears of not picking up a single ACC win this season are gradually slipping into the minds of BC faithful.
With that said, the Eagles will now fly South to take on the undefeated Florida State Seminoles where they come in as double-digit underdogs at +17 odds.
FSU has had one of it’s best starts in years capping off victories against Louisville, Dusquene and LSU. Two of those games ended in dramatic fashion with the ‘Noles knocking off the Tigers in a blocked extra point field goal attempt as time expired and then, last week, relying on their backup QB, Tate Rodemaker, to get the job done when starting QB, Jordan Travis, went down with a leg injury. He was spotted with a boot on his left foot and on crutches during Friday’s game, but it remains to be seen whether or not he will start on Saturday.
Either way, looking at the numbers, it is evident why Vegas is siding heavily with the ‘Noles. FSU rankes 24th in FBS in Total Offense with 1,485 yards of offense and averaging 7.04 yards per play. This is to the tune of BC’s offense where they rank 115th with 898 yards of total offense and ust 4.54 yards per play.
On the defensive side of the ball, BC is a tad more competent where they rank 42nd in FBS allowing 328 YPG and giving up 4.78 yards per play. FSU is just a few more notches down at 47th in the country averaging around similar numbers making their defensive plays effectively a wash.
In making my decision on which way to lean here, as a gambler, I feel comfortable enough to take the points and choose BC +17, only if the ‘Noles will be without Travis. If Travis is given the go-ahead to play, I may end up flopping the other way and play favorites with FSU.
I understand the risk associated with it. BC effectively has shown zero run-game in a year that was expected to be a breakout for Pat Garwo with the team, collectively, putting up on 114 total rushing yards through three games. Abysmal. Jurkovec continue to throw errant passes even when he is given enough time in the pocket. The O-Line’s troubles speak for themselves. However, a sturdy enough defense can keep BC covering their spread long enough for a few sparks in offense that we have seen from Flowers and Phil’s connection. Do I think BC wins? Probably not. Do I think they are able to hang on long-enough to cover the spread? I would think so.
Final Verdict: Boston College +17 | Under 48.5 | FSU MoneyLine (-910)