FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 3 - September 17

The Book took an unexpected week off last week, as did our Eagles. I traveled to Blacksburg and with all the other things going on in life, didn't get a chance to update the ratings...ahh, but hopefully my return, signals the return of BC football to winning ways (it had better with the opposition being Maine!).

Just a reminder of how the ratings work. We start the season with power ratings, so how good a team is supposed to be. Those are updated weekly and are the basis of our point spreads. The posted ratings after week 1 are 50% that number and 50% based on your wins and losses vs competition. As the season progresses and certainly by the time the CFP rankings come out, we are very much in line with those.

As mentioned in the preseason ratings, I am also running a completely parallel set of ratings that I 100% created myself and comparing those to what I have in place here. Those are called "New Book" ratings.

What I've found after a few weeks is that the New Book has done much better against the Vegas line, but not as good as a true predictor of games as measured by absolute error.

To date the new book is .489 vs the midweek Vegas spread which is what is tracked by Prediction Tracker as the metric. It was 56.8% last week. It is at 73% picking winners and has an absolute error of 12.95 points per game.

The traditional book .400 vs the midweek Vegas spread, 74% picking winners and 11.90 points per game in absolute error.

At this point, the .489 vs Vegas would actually place the New Book #10 out of 48 computer polls as only five of them are actually above .500.

No BC spread this week as they are playing an FCS team in Maine, but Vegas has the Eagles as a 31 1/2 point favorite (as of posting) and Sagarin has BC -28.8 points.

Good so far in terms of our selected picks at +7.34 units on the season.

This week's picks:

- Western Kentucky +205 Indiana

- Mississippi -588 Georgia Tech

- Michigan St +110 Washington

- Louisiana -435 Rice

- Western Kentucky +6.5 Indiana

- Buffalo +17.5 Coastal Carolina

- Notre Dame -12 California

- Akron +48 Tennessee

- Michigan St +2 Washington

- Louisiana -11.5 Rice

- Texas -13.5 UTSA

What I am really watching this week are the three games where the model is saying bet the moneyline and the spread and see which one works out best.

Legend:

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 ALABAMA 2 0 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 0
2 GEORGIA 2 0 2 12 2 1 3 1 2 1 1
3 OHIO ST 2 0 3 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 (1)
4 MICHIGAN 2 0 4 26 8 4 5 4 5 4 62
5 ARKANSAS 2 0 17 2 13 9 21 10 11 12 (1)
6 TENNESSEE 2 0 8 11 12 8 7 15 16 8 1
7 OKLAHOMA 2 0 6 20 6 7 15 6 6 9 32
8 CLEMSON 2 0 5 27 5 5 4 5 4 10 9
9 PENN ST 2 0 12 8 10 10 13 22 23 6 (4)
10 KENTUCKY 2 0 15 7 16 11 22 9 10 11 (4)
11 OKLAHOMA ST 2 0 13 9 7 6 20 8 7 5 3
12 MISSISSIPPI ST 2 0 16 10 11 18 9 14 (4)
13 NORTH CAROLINA 3 0 45 1 51 38 46 7 28
14 BYU 2 0 26 6 28 13 24 12 14 15 8
15 MICHIGAN ST 2 0 11 23 25 12 11 11 9 18 4
16 KANSAS ST 2 0 23 22 19 20 27 19 2
17 USC 2 0 28 17 15 31 8 7 8 24 11
18 MISSISSIPPI 2 0 14 34 24 16 16 20 17 17 16
19 OREGON ST 2 0 42 4 35 37 50 16 6
20 NORTH CAROLINA ST 2 0 24 40 32 23 34 16 12 23 15
21 IOWA ST 2 0 35 24 34 21 33 13 2
22 AIR FORCE 2 0 43 16 31 35 52 20 48
23 TCU 2 0 32 37 27 44 43 37 15
24 FLORIDA ST 2 0 34 28 39 43 36 28 (4)
25 SYRACUSE 2 0 49 14 41 48 30 30 30
26 MIAMI FL 2 0 21 48 30 28 17 13 13 29 45
27 AUBURN 2 0 36 31 60 33 40 25 (1)
28 MARYLAND 2 0 41 25 47 51 28 41 71
29 MINNESOTA 2 0 29 44 37 24 23 22 16
30 WASHINGTON 2 0 38 36 21 54 25 33 21
31 WAKE FOREST 2 0 39 38 29 22 38 19 18 27 (18)
32 TEXAS TECH 2 0 47 39 65 36 44 34 0
33 TEXAS 1 1 7 58 4 19 6 21 20 42 (23)
34 WASHINGTON ST 2 0 65 15 50 49 76 21 10
35 UCLA 2 0 40 46 53 40 45 31 13
36 SMU 2 0 53 42 55 46 42 36 16
37 LOUISIANA 2 0 60 29 54 41 71 26 10
38 LIBERTY 2 0 77 13 81 61 69 40 15
39 CALIFORNIA 2 0 72 21 58 68 74 35 3
40 MARSHALL 2 0 59 35 44 50 39 39 47
41 INDIANA 2 0 75 19 73 72 78 43 18
42 WESTERN KENTUCKY 2 0 70 30 82 56 65 32 (5)
43 ILLINOIS 2 1 55 47 52 52 58 38 15
44 PITTSBURGH 1 1 31 59 38 27 31 23 25 44 (33)
45 FLORIDA 1 1 33 56 36 34 37 18 21 47 (36)
46 DUKE 2 0 88 18 56 91 72 60 0
47 OREGON 1 1 27 68 14 32 32 25 24 54 31
48 CINCINNATI 1 1 19 80 18 17 19 46 33
49 UTAH 1 1 9 94 9 15 10 14 15 49 27
50 TULANE 2 0 69 50 79 76 56 53 19
51 COASTAL CAROLINA 2 0 85 33 96 63 98 45 11
52 TEXAS A&M 1 1 20 85 22 26 29 24 22 50 4
53 KANSAS 2 0 82 41 67 75 79 67 45
54 RUTGERS 2 0 73 49 85 74 63 59 9
55 TOLEDO 2 0 68 51 71 69 67 55 42
56 IOWA 1 1 37 71 45 42 55 51 (35)
57 BAYLOR 1 1 18 99 20 14 14 17 19 56 (42)
58 SOUTH CAROLINA 1 1 44 63 48 53 48 71 (46)
59 LSU 1 1 22 93 23 47 12 66 25
60 WISCONSIN 1 1 25 90 26 30 35 52 (44)
61 SOUTH ALABAMA 2 0 92 32 75 77 82 61 35
62 PURDUE 1 1 30 84 33 29 26 57 24
63 LOUISVILLE 1 1 46 64 46 57 51 63 16
64 APPALACHIAN ST 1 1 52 60 42 39 49 48 10
65 HOUSTON 1 1 48 70 63 45 47 64 (36)
66 JAMES MADISON 2 0 90 45 61 60 75 87 7
67 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 0 95 43 77 87 87 62 23
68 ARIZONA ST 1 1 51 77 43 55 53 58 (44)
69 BOISE ST 1 1 54 76 40 58 54 72 8
70 MISSOURI 1 1 58 69 78 67 60 77 (43)
71 MEMPHIS 1 1 61 67 57 71 57 73 45
72 EAST CAROLINA 1 1 64 66 70 65 64 70 0
73 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 2 1 83 55 74 93 77 76 21
74 UCF 1 1 50 100 49 59 41 80 1
75 UTSA 1 1 67 72 87 62 66 75 36
76 NOTRE DAME 0 2 10 115 17 25 18 68 (26)
77 VIRGINIA TECH 1 1 62 79 66 73 73 69 37
78 VANDERBILT 2 1 103 52 94 90 88 79 (42)
79 ARIZONA 1 1 81 62 64 86 80 83 (48)
80 FRESNO ST 1 1 57 92 59 64 68 81 (47)
81 NORTHWESTERN 1 1 80 74 72 88 86 85 (51)
82 NEVADA 2 1 108 53 110 94 106 65 (28)
83 WESTERN MICHIGAN 1 1 87 65 80 85 96 82 27
84 VIRGINIA 1 1 74 89 86 78 83 84 (27)
85 STANFORD 1 1 71 95 68 83 62 95 (36)
86 NORTH TEXAS 2 1 100 57 117 102 103 88 5
87 WYOMING 2 1 110 54 108 99 111 74 6
88 GEORGIA TECH 1 1 86 75 89 97 90 90 12
89 UAB 1 1 66 109 76 66 61 86 (49)
90 NEBRASKA 1 2 56 112 62 79 59 89 (29)
91 TULSA 1 1 89 83 93 82 93 78 10
92 SAN DIEGO ST 1 1 79 106 84 80 92 93 14
93 OLD DOMINION 1 1 101 73 105 100 101 92 (5)
94 OHIO 1 1 111 61 97 108 113 91 (51)
95 TROY 1 1 94 91 109 96 91 100 9
96 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 1 1 99 82 106 103 99 94 27
97 SAN JOSE ST 1 1 97 88 101 104 102 97 (30)
98 MIAMI OH 1 1 96 98 98 92 105 96 5
99 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 1 1 93 107 91 101 114 101 3
100 ARKANSAS ST 1 1 112 81 95 105 85 98 (36)
101 UTAH ST 1 2 104 101 103 98 115 102 (19)
102 UNLV 1 1 102 104 88 107 100 105 (34)
103 EASTERN MICHIGAN 1 1 113 87 112 110 118 99 (43)
104 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 1 105 105 120 109 110 107 3
105 LOUISIANA TECH 1 1 109 102 115 113 97 109 10
106 WEST VIRGINIA 0 2 63 122 69 70 70 103 (26)
107 LA MONROE 1 1 122 78 116 114 117 108 12
108 NEW MEXICO 1 1 119 103 111 120 112 115 0
109 TEXAS ST 1 1 121 97 126 119 108 104 9
110 UTEP 1 2 118 110 122 118 122 113 20
111 BOSTON COLLEGE 0 2 76 124 90 95 81 110 2
112 RICE 1 1 123 96 123 117 116 114 12
113 GEORGIA ST 0 2 84 120 92 84 89 111 (48)
114 ARMY 0 2 78 125 100 81 84 112 (2)
115 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 0 2 91 121 83 89 94 106 (30)
116 KENT ST 0 2 107 114 102 111 109 117 (24)
117 COLORADO 0 2 98 118 99 106 104 116 (28)
118 TEMPLE 1 1 124 108 119 124 124 120 10
119 AKRON 1 1 129 86 129 127 127 122 (36)
120 SOUTHERN MISS 0 2 106 119 107 115 95 121 (15)
121 COLORADO ST 0 2 115 116 118 122 120 119 0
122 BALL ST 0 2 117 117 104 112 121 118 0
123 CONNECTICUT 1 2 127 113 121 126 125 127 (28)
124 NAVY 0 2 116 126 114 116 119 123 5
125 BUFFALO 0 2 114 128 113 121 107 124 (16)
126 FLORIDA INTL 1 1 131 111 130 130 131 126 1
127 BOWLING GREEN 0 2 120 127 124 125 126 128 (10)
128 HAWAII 0 3 125 129 125 123 129 125 (8)
129 MASSACHUSETTS 0 2 130 123 131 131 130 130 (3)
130 CHARLOTTE 0 3 126 131 128 128 123 131 (5)
131 NEW MEXICO ST 0 3 128 130 127 129 128 129 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 2 0 5 27 5 5 4 5 4 10 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA 3 0 45 1 51 38 46 7 1
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 2 0 24 40 32 23 34 16 12 23 2
4 FLORIDA ST 2 0 34 28 39 43 36 28 (2)
5 SYRACUSE 2 0 49 14 41 48 30 30 1
6 MIAMI FL 2 0 21 48 30 28 17 13 13 29 1
7 WAKE FOREST 2 0 39 38 29 22 38 19 18 27 1
8 PITTSBURGH 1 1 31 59 38 27 31 23 25 44 (4)
9 DUKE 2 0 88 18 56 91 72 60 1
10 LOUISVILLE 1 1 46 64 46 57 51 63 1
11 VIRGINIA TECH 1 1 62 79 66 73 73 69 3
12 VIRGINIA 1 1 74 89 86 78 83 84 (3)
13 GEORGIA TECH 1 1 86 75 89 97 90 90 (1)
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 0 2 76 124 90 95 81 110 (1)
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
Florida St 0.4 at Louisville 50%
UTEP 0.2 at New Mexico 50%
Georgia 20.6 at South Carolina 99%
Oklahoma 12.9 at Nebraska 83%
at Baylor 33.8 Texas St 99%
at Michigan 45.2 Connecticut 99%
Purdue 2.8 at Syracuse 54%
Cincinnati 18.8 at Miami OH 96%
at Indiana 0.8 Western Kentucky 50%
at Coastal Carolina 11.8 Buffalo 81%
at UCLA 16.6 South Alabama 89%
at Iowa St 23.7 Ohio 99%
Rutgers 16.9 at Temple 89%
at Virginia 10.6 Old Dominion 79%
at Notre Dame 19.3 California 97%
at Kansas St 17.0 Tulane 91%
at UNLV 2.0 North Texas 53%
Penn St 3.4 at Auburn 57%
Mississippi 18.0 at Georgia Tech 95%
at Northern Illinois 4.8 Vanderbilt 63%
at Minnesota 22.8 Colorado 99%
at Oregon 1.6 BYU 52%
at Wisconsin 38.1 New Mexico St 99%
at Appalachian St 14.1 Troy 85%
at UAB 11.2 Georgia Southern 80%
at Alabama 50.5 LA Monroe 99%
at Houston 11.7 Kansas 81%
at Washington St 17.1 Colorado St 91%
at Wake Forest 13.6 Liberty 84%
Marshall 16.7 Bowling Green 89%
at LSU 1.3 Mississippi St 51%
at Tennessee 41.7 Akron 99%
at North Carolina St 9.6 Texas Tech 75%
at Ohio St 29.0 Toledo 99%
at Memphis 17.1 Arkansas St 91%
at Georgia St 19.5 Charlotte 98%
at Florida 22.3 South Florida 99%
Michigan St 5.1 at Washington 64%
at Iowa 22.2 Nevada 99%
at Maryland 5.6 SMU 65%
Pittsburgh 14.4 at Western Michigan 85%
UCF 7.4 at Florida Atlantic 70%
Louisiana 18.0 at Rice 95%
Air Force 16.7 at Wyoming 89%
at Clemson 33.6 Louisiana Tech 99%
at Texas 19.0 UTSA 97%
at Texas A&M 2.8 Miami FL 54%
at Utah 21.7 San Diego St 99%
at USC 12.4 Fresno St 82%
at Arizona St 20.4 Eastern Michigan 99%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 0 1 0.000
Total 1 1 0.500
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 0 1 0.000
Total 0 2 0.000
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 20 24 0.455
Previous 18 33 0.353
Total 38 57 0.40000
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 33 14 0.702
Previous 41 12 0.774
Total 74 26 0.74000
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 11.3426 47
Previous 12.3877 53
Total 11.8965 100
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Winners T18 48
vs Spread T45 48
Absolute Error 14 48
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss (1.78) (2.20)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St
vs Louisville
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 1.50 (2.20)
Money Line Picks Units
Week 3.54
Previous 1.00
Total 4.54
Spread Picks Units
Week 1.00
Previous 1.80
Total 2.80
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 2.70 6 3
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 4.54 4 4