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The Book 2022: Big 10 Season Win Totals


The third in the series of season win totals covers the Big 10. Like the ACC and SEC, pretty easy to see how Vegas comes up with their totals! Of the three completed so far, this is the one we have exposed the least amount of advantage from our ratings, with no team more than half a win or loss above or below expectations besides the nation's #2 team, Ohio State. The Buckeyes are projected at 11.09 wins by the Book or almost 6/10ths of a win beyond the Vegas projection. By those standards, we would OSU to go over 10 1/2 at -270 ML.

The real number for Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia, should be 11, but at that point, most would go under knowing the worst case is a push.

How much of what happened in week 0 would impact your thoughts? Vanderbilt at 2.5 in Vegas, we had them at 2.25 but they already have one in the win column. Then there's Nebraska and Northwestern, where the Huskers took a hit and the Cats a boost from their game in Dublin.

Next up: The Big 12

Team Book
Win Total
Vegas
Win
Total
Win
Difference
Illinois 4.33 4.5 (0.17)
Indiana 3.86 4.0 (0.14)
Iowa 7.50 7.5 0.00
Maryland 5.96 6.0 (0.04)
Michigan 9.95 9.5 0.45
Michigan St 7.96 7.5 0.46
Minnesota 7.87 7.5 0.37
Nebraska 7.81 7.5 0.31
Northwestern 3.83 4.0 (0.17)
Ohio St 11.09 10.5 0.59
Penn St 8.22 8.5 (0.28)
Purdue 7.67 7.5 0.17
Rutgers 3.59 4.0 (0.41)
Wisconsin 8.76 8.5 0.26
H/A Illinois Spread Win Probability
H Wyoming Illinois (10.80) 0.7925
A Illinois Indiana (2.10) 0.4664
H Virginia Illinois 1.20 0.4876
H Chattanooga Illinois (18.07) 0.9495
A Illinois Wisconsin (18.40) 0.0505
H Iowa Illinois 10.60 0.2075
H Minnesota Illinois 8.70 0.2536
A Illinois Nebraska (11.30) 0.2007
H Michigan St Illinois 12.80 0.1744
H Purdue Illinois 8.40 0.2619
A Illinois Michigan (23.10) 0.0000
A Illinois Northwestern (1.40) 0.4876
Win Total 4.33
H/A Indiana Spread Win Probability
H Illinois Indiana (2.10) 0.5336
H Idaho Indiana (23.17) 1.0000
H Western Kentucky Indiana (2.80) 0.5425
A Indiana Cincinnati (15.90) 0.1195
A Indiana Nebraska (11.50) 0.1939
H Michigan Indiana 17.90 0.0629
H Maryland Indiana 4.60 0.3686
A Indiana Rutgers (0.40) 0.5000
H Penn St Indiana 12.90 0.1744
A Indiana Ohio St (32.00) 0.0000
A Indiana Michigan St (16.50) 0.1095
H Purdue Indiana 8.50 0.2536
Win Total 3.86
H/A Iowa Spread Win Probability
H South Dakota St Iowa (13.90) 0.8350
H Iowa St Iowa (4.80) 0.6314
H Nevada Iowa (23.40) 1.0000
A Iowa Rutgers 12.60 0.8256
H Michigan Iowa 4.80 0.3686
A Iowa Illinois 10.60 0.7925
A Iowa Ohio St (19.00) 0.0270
H Northwestern Iowa (16.10) 0.8855
A Iowa Purdue 0.40 0.5000
H Wisconsin Iowa 1.30 0.4876
A Iowa Minnesota (0.90) 0.5000
H Nebraska Iowa (5.60) 0.6513
Win Total 7.50
H/A Maryland Spread Win Probability
H Buffalo Maryland (18.40) 0.9495
A Maryland Charlotte 16.10 0.8855
H SMU Maryland (4.70) 0.6314
A Maryland Michigan (16.50) 0.1095
H Michigan St Maryland 6.00 0.3358
H Purdue Maryland 1.60 0.4752
A Maryland Indiana 4.60 0.6314
H Northwestern Maryland (9.90) 0.7547
A Maryland Wisconsin (11.80) 0.1939
A Maryland Penn St (11.30) 0.2007
H Ohio St Maryland 20.20 0.0000
H Rutgers Maryland (10.60) 0.7925
Win Total 5.96
H/A Michigan Spread Win Probability
H Colorado St Michigan (30.50) 1.0000
H Hawaii Michigan (35.80) 1.0000
H Connecticut Michigan (43.40) 1.0000
H Maryland Michigan (16.50) 0.8905
A Michigan Iowa 4.80 0.6314
A Michigan Indiana 17.90 0.9371
H Penn St Michigan (8.20) 0.7381
H Michigan St Michigan (8.20) 0.7381
A Michigan Rutgers 19.70 0.9840
H Nebraska Michigan (13.70) 0.8350
H Illinois Michigan (23.10) 1.0000
A Michigan Ohio St (11.80) 0.1939
Win Total 9.95
H/A Michigan St Spread Win Probability
H Western Michigan Michigan St (20.60) 1.0000
H Akron Michigan St (34.70) 1.0000
A Michigan St Washington 5.30 0.6414
H Minnesota Michigan St (5.40) 0.6414
A Michigan St Maryland 6.00 0.6642
H Ohio St Michigan St 12.90 0.1744
H Wisconsin Michigan St 0.20 0.5000
A Michigan St Michigan (8.20) 0.2619
A Michigan St Illinois 12.80 0.8256
H Rutgers Michigan St (17.90) 0.9371
H Indiana Michigan St (16.50) 0.8905
A Michigan St Penn St (3.00) 0.4256
Win Total 7.96
H/A Minnesota Spread Win Probability
H New Mexico St Minnesota (36.30) 1.0000
H Western Illinois Minnesota (34.32) 1.0000
H Colorado Minnesota (16.10) 0.8855
A Minnesota Michigan St (5.40) 0.3586
H Purdue Minnesota (3.10) 0.5744
A Minnesota Illinois 8.70 0.7464
A Minnesota Penn St (7.10) 0.2966
H Rutgers Minnesota (15.30) 0.8741
A Minnesota Nebraska (0.40) 0.5000
H Northwestern Minnesota (14.70) 0.8677
H Iowa Minnesota (0.90) 0.5000
A Minnesota Wisconsin (7.60) 0.2702
Win Total 7.87
H/A Nebraska Spread Win Probability
N Nebraska Northwestern 10.20 0.7736
H North Dakota Nebraska (17.50) 0.9371
H Georgia Southern Nebraska (21.80) 1.0000
H Oklahoma Nebraska 9.60 0.2453
H Indiana Nebraska (11.50) 0.8061
A Nebraska Rutgers 9.30 0.7505
A Nebraska Purdue (2.90) 0.4575
H Illinois Nebraska (11.30) 0.7993
H Minnesota Nebraska (0.40) 0.5000
A Nebraska Michigan (13.70) 0.8350
H Wisconsin Nebraska 5.20 0.3586
A Nebraska Iowa (5.60) 0.3487
Win Total 7.81
H/A Northwestern Spread Win Probability
N Nebraska Northwestern 10.20 0.2264
H Duke Northwestern (11.80) 0.8061
H Southern Illinois Northwestern (13.52) 0.8350
H Miami OH Northwestern (4.80) 0.6314
A Northwestern Penn St (19.00) 0.0270
H Wisconsin Northwestern 15.00 0.1259
A Northwestern Maryland (9.90) 0.2453
A Northwestern Iowa (16.10) 0.1145
H Ohio St Northwestern 27.70 0.0000
A Northwestern Minnesota (14.70) 0.1323
A Northwestern Purdue (13.40) 0.1697
H Illinois Northwestern (1.40) 0.5124
Win Total 3.83
H/A Ohio St Spread Win Probability
H Notre Dame Ohio St (12.00) 0.8159
H Arkansas St Ohio St (45.80) 1.0000
H Toledo Ohio St (31.10) 1.0000
H Wisconsin Ohio St (15.30) 0.8741
H Rutgers Ohio St (33.40) 1.0000
A Ohio St Michigan St 12.90 0.8256
H Iowa Ohio St (19.00) 0.9730
A Ohio St Penn St 11.20 0.7993
A Ohio St Northwestern 27.70 1.0000
H Indiana Ohio St (32.00) 1.0000
A Ohio St Maryland 20.20 1.0000
H Michigan Ohio St (11.80) 0.8061
Win Total 11.09
H/A Penn St Spread Win Probability
A Penn St Purdue 2.60 0.5425
H Ohio Penn St (28.80) 1.0000
A Penn St Auburn (1.50) 0.4752
H Central Michigan Penn St (21.10) 1.0000
H Northwestern Penn St (19.00) 0.9730
A Penn St Michigan (8.20) 0.2619
H Minnesota Penn St (7.10) 0.7034
H Ohio St Penn St 11.20 0.2007
A Penn St Indiana 12.90 0.8256
H Maryland Penn St (11.30) 0.7993
A Penn St Rutgers 14.80 0.8677
H Michigan St Penn St (3.00) 0.5744
Win Total 8.22
H/A Purdue Spread Win Probability
H Penn St Purdue 2.60 0.4575
H Indiana St Purdue (28.92) 1.0000
A Purdue Syracuse 5.50 0.6513
H Florida Atlantic Purdue (19.50) 0.9840
A Purdue Minnesota (3.10) 0.4256
A Purdue Maryland 1.60 0.5248
H Nebraska Purdue (2.90) 0.5425
A Purdue Wisconsin (7.90) 0.2702
H Iowa Purdue 0.40 0.5000
A Purdue Illinois 8.40 0.7381
H Northwestern Purdue (13.40) 0.8303
A Purdue Indiana 8.50 0.7464
Win Total 7.67
H/A Rutgers Spread Win Probability
A Rutgers Boston College (6.80) 0.3229
H Wagner Rutgers (43.81) 1.0000
A Rutgers Temple 11.20 0.7993
H Iowa Rutgers 12.60 0.1744
A Rutgers Ohio St (33.40) 0.0000
H Nebraska Rutgers 9.30 0.2495
H Indiana Rutgers (0.40) 0.5000
A Rutgers Minnesota (15.30) 0.1259
H Michigan Rutgers 19.70 0.0160
A Rutgers Michigan St (17.90) 0.0629
H Penn St Rutgers 14.80 0.1323
A Rutgers Maryland (10.60) 0.2075
Win Total 3.59
H/A Wisconsin Spread Win Probability
H Illinois St Wisconsin (33.10) 1.0000
H Washington St Wisconsin (16.60) 0.8905
H New Mexico St Wisconsin (41.00) 1.0000
A Wisconsin Ohio St (15.30) 0.1259
H Illinois Wisconsin (18.40) 0.9495
A Wisconsin Northwestern 15.00 0.8741
A Wisconsin Michigan St 0.20 0.5000
H Purdue Wisconsin (7.90) 0.7298
H Maryland Wisconsin (11.80) 0.8061
A Wisconsin Iowa 1.30 0.5124
A Wisconsin Nebraska 5.20 0.6414
H Minnesota Wisconsin (7.60) 0.7298
Win Total 8.76