The third in the series of season win totals covers the Big 10. Like the ACC and SEC, pretty easy to see how Vegas comes up with their totals! Of the three completed so far, this is the one we have exposed the least amount of advantage from our ratings, with no team more than half a win or loss above or below expectations besides the nation's #2 team, Ohio State. The Buckeyes are projected at 11.09 wins by the Book or almost 6/10ths of a win beyond the Vegas projection. By those standards, we would OSU to go over 10 1/2 at -270 ML.
The real number for Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia, should be 11, but at that point, most would go under knowing the worst case is a push.
How much of what happened in week 0 would impact your thoughts? Vanderbilt at 2.5 in Vegas, we had them at 2.25 but they already have one in the win column. Then there's Nebraska and Northwestern, where the Huskers took a hit and the Cats a boost from their game in Dublin.
Next up: The Big 12
Team | Book Win Total |
Vegas Win Total |
Win Difference |
|
Illinois | 4.33 | 4.5 | (0.17) | |
Indiana | 3.86 | 4.0 | (0.14) | |
Iowa | 7.50 | 7.5 | 0.00 | |
Maryland | 5.96 | 6.0 | (0.04) | |
Michigan | 9.95 | 9.5 | 0.45 | |
Michigan St | 7.96 | 7.5 | 0.46 | |
Minnesota | 7.87 | 7.5 | 0.37 | |
Nebraska | 7.81 | 7.5 | 0.31 | |
Northwestern | 3.83 | 4.0 | (0.17) | |
Ohio St | 11.09 | 10.5 | 0.59 | |
Penn St | 8.22 | 8.5 | (0.28) | |
Purdue | 7.67 | 7.5 | 0.17 | |
Rutgers | 3.59 | 4.0 | (0.41) | |
Wisconsin | 8.76 | 8.5 | 0.26 | |
H/A | Illinois | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Wyoming | Illinois | (10.80) | 0.7925 |
A | Illinois | Indiana | (2.10) | 0.4664 |
H | Virginia | Illinois | 1.20 | 0.4876 |
H | Chattanooga | Illinois | (18.07) | 0.9495 |
A | Illinois | Wisconsin | (18.40) | 0.0505 |
H | Iowa | Illinois | 10.60 | 0.2075 |
H | Minnesota | Illinois | 8.70 | 0.2536 |
A | Illinois | Nebraska | (11.30) | 0.2007 |
H | Michigan St | Illinois | 12.80 | 0.1744 |
H | Purdue | Illinois | 8.40 | 0.2619 |
A | Illinois | Michigan | (23.10) | 0.0000 |
A | Illinois | Northwestern | (1.40) | 0.4876 |
Win Total | 4.33 | |||
H/A | Indiana | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Illinois | Indiana | (2.10) | 0.5336 |
H | Idaho | Indiana | (23.17) | 1.0000 |
H | Western Kentucky | Indiana | (2.80) | 0.5425 |
A | Indiana | Cincinnati | (15.90) | 0.1195 |
A | Indiana | Nebraska | (11.50) | 0.1939 |
H | Michigan | Indiana | 17.90 | 0.0629 |
H | Maryland | Indiana | 4.60 | 0.3686 |
A | Indiana | Rutgers | (0.40) | 0.5000 |
H | Penn St | Indiana | 12.90 | 0.1744 |
A | Indiana | Ohio St | (32.00) | 0.0000 |
A | Indiana | Michigan St | (16.50) | 0.1095 |
H | Purdue | Indiana | 8.50 | 0.2536 |
Win Total | 3.86 | |||
H/A | Iowa | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | South Dakota St | Iowa | (13.90) | 0.8350 |
H | Iowa St | Iowa | (4.80) | 0.6314 |
H | Nevada | Iowa | (23.40) | 1.0000 |
A | Iowa | Rutgers | 12.60 | 0.8256 |
H | Michigan | Iowa | 4.80 | 0.3686 |
A | Iowa | Illinois | 10.60 | 0.7925 |
A | Iowa | Ohio St | (19.00) | 0.0270 |
H | Northwestern | Iowa | (16.10) | 0.8855 |
A | Iowa | Purdue | 0.40 | 0.5000 |
H | Wisconsin | Iowa | 1.30 | 0.4876 |
A | Iowa | Minnesota | (0.90) | 0.5000 |
H | Nebraska | Iowa | (5.60) | 0.6513 |
Win Total | 7.50 | |||
H/A | Maryland | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Buffalo | Maryland | (18.40) | 0.9495 |
A | Maryland | Charlotte | 16.10 | 0.8855 |
H | SMU | Maryland | (4.70) | 0.6314 |
A | Maryland | Michigan | (16.50) | 0.1095 |
H | Michigan St | Maryland | 6.00 | 0.3358 |
H | Purdue | Maryland | 1.60 | 0.4752 |
A | Maryland | Indiana | 4.60 | 0.6314 |
H | Northwestern | Maryland | (9.90) | 0.7547 |
A | Maryland | Wisconsin | (11.80) | 0.1939 |
A | Maryland | Penn St | (11.30) | 0.2007 |
H | Ohio St | Maryland | 20.20 | 0.0000 |
H | Rutgers | Maryland | (10.60) | 0.7925 |
Win Total | 5.96 | |||
H/A | Michigan | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Colorado St | Michigan | (30.50) | 1.0000 |
H | Hawaii | Michigan | (35.80) | 1.0000 |
H | Connecticut | Michigan | (43.40) | 1.0000 |
H | Maryland | Michigan | (16.50) | 0.8905 |
A | Michigan | Iowa | 4.80 | 0.6314 |
A | Michigan | Indiana | 17.90 | 0.9371 |
H | Penn St | Michigan | (8.20) | 0.7381 |
H | Michigan St | Michigan | (8.20) | 0.7381 |
A | Michigan | Rutgers | 19.70 | 0.9840 |
H | Nebraska | Michigan | (13.70) | 0.8350 |
H | Illinois | Michigan | (23.10) | 1.0000 |
A | Michigan | Ohio St | (11.80) | 0.1939 |
Win Total | 9.95 | |||
H/A | Michigan St | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Western Michigan | Michigan St | (20.60) | 1.0000 |
H | Akron | Michigan St | (34.70) | 1.0000 |
A | Michigan St | Washington | 5.30 | 0.6414 |
H | Minnesota | Michigan St | (5.40) | 0.6414 |
A | Michigan St | Maryland | 6.00 | 0.6642 |
H | Ohio St | Michigan St | 12.90 | 0.1744 |
H | Wisconsin | Michigan St | 0.20 | 0.5000 |
A | Michigan St | Michigan | (8.20) | 0.2619 |
A | Michigan St | Illinois | 12.80 | 0.8256 |
H | Rutgers | Michigan St | (17.90) | 0.9371 |
H | Indiana | Michigan St | (16.50) | 0.8905 |
A | Michigan St | Penn St | (3.00) | 0.4256 |
Win Total | 7.96 | |||
H/A | Minnesota | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | New Mexico St | Minnesota | (36.30) | 1.0000 |
H | Western Illinois | Minnesota | (34.32) | 1.0000 |
H | Colorado | Minnesota | (16.10) | 0.8855 |
A | Minnesota | Michigan St | (5.40) | 0.3586 |
H | Purdue | Minnesota | (3.10) | 0.5744 |
A | Minnesota | Illinois | 8.70 | 0.7464 |
A | Minnesota | Penn St | (7.10) | 0.2966 |
H | Rutgers | Minnesota | (15.30) | 0.8741 |
A | Minnesota | Nebraska | (0.40) | 0.5000 |
H | Northwestern | Minnesota | (14.70) | 0.8677 |
H | Iowa | Minnesota | (0.90) | 0.5000 |
A | Minnesota | Wisconsin | (7.60) | 0.2702 |
Win Total | 7.87 | |||
H/A | Nebraska | Spread | Win Probability | |
N | Nebraska | Northwestern | 10.20 | 0.7736 |
H | North Dakota | Nebraska | (17.50) | 0.9371 |
H | Georgia Southern | Nebraska | (21.80) | 1.0000 |
H | Oklahoma | Nebraska | 9.60 | 0.2453 |
H | Indiana | Nebraska | (11.50) | 0.8061 |
A | Nebraska | Rutgers | 9.30 | 0.7505 |
A | Nebraska | Purdue | (2.90) | 0.4575 |
H | Illinois | Nebraska | (11.30) | 0.7993 |
H | Minnesota | Nebraska | (0.40) | 0.5000 |
A | Nebraska | Michigan | (13.70) | 0.8350 |
H | Wisconsin | Nebraska | 5.20 | 0.3586 |
A | Nebraska | Iowa | (5.60) | 0.3487 |
Win Total | 7.81 | |||
H/A | Northwestern | Spread | Win Probability | |
N | Nebraska | Northwestern | 10.20 | 0.2264 |
H | Duke | Northwestern | (11.80) | 0.8061 |
H | Southern Illinois | Northwestern | (13.52) | 0.8350 |
H | Miami OH | Northwestern | (4.80) | 0.6314 |
A | Northwestern | Penn St | (19.00) | 0.0270 |
H | Wisconsin | Northwestern | 15.00 | 0.1259 |
A | Northwestern | Maryland | (9.90) | 0.2453 |
A | Northwestern | Iowa | (16.10) | 0.1145 |
H | Ohio St | Northwestern | 27.70 | 0.0000 |
A | Northwestern | Minnesota | (14.70) | 0.1323 |
A | Northwestern | Purdue | (13.40) | 0.1697 |
H | Illinois | Northwestern | (1.40) | 0.5124 |
Win Total | 3.83 | |||
H/A | Ohio St | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Notre Dame | Ohio St | (12.00) | 0.8159 |
H | Arkansas St | Ohio St | (45.80) | 1.0000 |
H | Toledo | Ohio St | (31.10) | 1.0000 |
H | Wisconsin | Ohio St | (15.30) | 0.8741 |
H | Rutgers | Ohio St | (33.40) | 1.0000 |
A | Ohio St | Michigan St | 12.90 | 0.8256 |
H | Iowa | Ohio St | (19.00) | 0.9730 |
A | Ohio St | Penn St | 11.20 | 0.7993 |
A | Ohio St | Northwestern | 27.70 | 1.0000 |
H | Indiana | Ohio St | (32.00) | 1.0000 |
A | Ohio St | Maryland | 20.20 | 1.0000 |
H | Michigan | Ohio St | (11.80) | 0.8061 |
Win Total | 11.09 | |||
H/A | Penn St | Spread | Win Probability | |
A | Penn St | Purdue | 2.60 | 0.5425 |
H | Ohio | Penn St | (28.80) | 1.0000 |
A | Penn St | Auburn | (1.50) | 0.4752 |
H | Central Michigan | Penn St | (21.10) | 1.0000 |
H | Northwestern | Penn St | (19.00) | 0.9730 |
A | Penn St | Michigan | (8.20) | 0.2619 |
H | Minnesota | Penn St | (7.10) | 0.7034 |
H | Ohio St | Penn St | 11.20 | 0.2007 |
A | Penn St | Indiana | 12.90 | 0.8256 |
H | Maryland | Penn St | (11.30) | 0.7993 |
A | Penn St | Rutgers | 14.80 | 0.8677 |
H | Michigan St | Penn St | (3.00) | 0.5744 |
Win Total | 8.22 | |||
H/A | Purdue | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Penn St | Purdue | 2.60 | 0.4575 |
H | Indiana St | Purdue | (28.92) | 1.0000 |
A | Purdue | Syracuse | 5.50 | 0.6513 |
H | Florida Atlantic | Purdue | (19.50) | 0.9840 |
A | Purdue | Minnesota | (3.10) | 0.4256 |
A | Purdue | Maryland | 1.60 | 0.5248 |
H | Nebraska | Purdue | (2.90) | 0.5425 |
A | Purdue | Wisconsin | (7.90) | 0.2702 |
H | Iowa | Purdue | 0.40 | 0.5000 |
A | Purdue | Illinois | 8.40 | 0.7381 |
H | Northwestern | Purdue | (13.40) | 0.8303 |
A | Purdue | Indiana | 8.50 | 0.7464 |
Win Total | 7.67 | |||
H/A | Rutgers | Spread | Win Probability | |
A | Rutgers | Boston College | (6.80) | 0.3229 |
H | Wagner | Rutgers | (43.81) | 1.0000 |
A | Rutgers | Temple | 11.20 | 0.7993 |
H | Iowa | Rutgers | 12.60 | 0.1744 |
A | Rutgers | Ohio St | (33.40) | 0.0000 |
H | Nebraska | Rutgers | 9.30 | 0.2495 |
H | Indiana | Rutgers | (0.40) | 0.5000 |
A | Rutgers | Minnesota | (15.30) | 0.1259 |
H | Michigan | Rutgers | 19.70 | 0.0160 |
A | Rutgers | Michigan St | (17.90) | 0.0629 |
H | Penn St | Rutgers | 14.80 | 0.1323 |
A | Rutgers | Maryland | (10.60) | 0.2075 |
Win Total | 3.59 | |||
H/A | Wisconsin | Spread | Win Probability | |
H | Illinois St | Wisconsin | (33.10) | 1.0000 |
H | Washington St | Wisconsin | (16.60) | 0.8905 |
H | New Mexico St | Wisconsin | (41.00) | 1.0000 |
A | Wisconsin | Ohio St | (15.30) | 0.1259 |
H | Illinois | Wisconsin | (18.40) | 0.9495 |
A | Wisconsin | Northwestern | 15.00 | 0.8741 |
A | Wisconsin | Michigan St | 0.20 | 0.5000 |
H | Purdue | Wisconsin | (7.90) | 0.7298 |
H | Maryland | Wisconsin | (11.80) | 0.8061 |
A | Wisconsin | Iowa | 1.30 | 0.5124 |
A | Wisconsin | Nebraska | 5.20 | 0.6414 |
H | Minnesota | Wisconsin | (7.60) | 0.7298 |
Win Total | 8.76 |
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