FanPost

The Book 2022: ACC Season Win Totals


Every day I will post a season win total and breakdown by game for all of FBS conferences, starting today with the ACC.

At the conclusion, we'll take a look at everyone's win total and money line on each and figure out which side The Book would be on and hopefully, exactly which of the 131 programs we would actually wager on. I will say that it is near uncanny how close what this has put together is to the official line (in this case we are using Draft Kings).

if you want to try this yourself, it's not terribly difficult. Assign a point spread to each game, then use a money line converter like this: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-calculators/spread-ml-converter/.

Use the probability that team wins, add up all of those probabilities and you get a win total based on pre-season spreads.

Tomorrow: the SEC

The ACC:

Based on these numbers, the best bets would be BC under 6.5 (-135 money line), Wake Forest over 6.5 (-160 ML). The next tier would be Virginia Tech under 6.5 (-145 ML) and then potentially both Miami and NC State over 8.5 (MIA -135 ML, NCSU -160 ML)...the others seem too close to touch.

Since you can bet the over or under and all of the ones we picked were favorite money lines, we've selected...well the favored side.

Team Book
Win Total
Vegas
Win Total
Win
Delta
Boston College 5.64 6.5 (0.86)
Clemson 10.38 10.5 (0.12)
Duke 3.23 3.0 0.23
Florida St 6.66 6.5 0.16
Georgia Tech 3.38 3.5 (0.12)
Louisville 6.66 6.5 0.16
Miami FL 8.94 8.5 0.44
North Carolina 7.51 7.5 0.01
North Carolina St 8.94 8.5 0.44
Pittsburgh 8.84 8.5 0.34
Syracuse 4.85 5.0 (0.15)
Virginia 6.91 7.0 (0.09)
Virginia Tech 5.96 6.5 (0.54)
Wake Forest 7.73 6.5 1.23
H/A Boston College Spread Win Probability
H Rutgers Boston College (6.80) 0.6771
A Boston College Virginia Tech (2.20) 0.4664
H Maine Boston College (32.59) 1.0000
A Boston College Florida St (9.60) 0.2463
H Louisville Boston College 4.50 0.3686
H Clemson Boston College 17.40 0.0862
A Boston College Wake Forest (9.00) 0.2495
A Boston College Connecticut 21.40 1.0000
H Duke Boston College (15.60) 0.8805
A Boston College North Carolina St (15.10) 0.1259
A Boston College Notre Dame (20.30) 0.0000
H Syracuse Boston College (2.90) 0.5425
Win Total 5.64
H/A Clemson Spread Win Probability
N Clemson Georgia Tech 23.70 1.0000
H Furman Clemson 44.07 1.0000
H Louisiana Tech Clemson (36.00) 1.0000
A Clemson Wake Forest 11.30 0.7993
H North Carolina St Clemson (10.50) 0.7925
A Clemson Boston College 17.40 0.9138
A Clemson Florida St 10.70 0.7925
H Syracuse Clemson (22.70) 1.0000
A Clemson Notre Dame 0.00 0.5000
H Louisville Clemson (15.30) 0.8741
H Miami FL Clemson (10.50) 0.7925
H South Carolina Clemson (17.10) 0.9138
Win Total 10.38
H/A Florida St Spread Win Probability
H Duquesne Florida St (41.20) 1.0000
N Florida St LSU (7.30) 0.2966
A Florida St Louisville (1.90) 0.4752
H Boston College Florida St (9.60) 0.7547
H Wake Forest Florida St (3.40) 0.5744
A Florida St North Carolina St (7.80) 0.2702
H Clemson Florida St 10.70 0.2175
H Georgia Tech Florida St (13.60) 0.8350
A Florida St Miami FL (7.40) 0.2966
A Florida St Syracuse 4.60 0.6314
H Louisiana Florida St (11.50) 0.8061
H Florida Florida St (0.40) 0.5000
Win Total 6.66
H/A Louisville Spread Win Probability
A Louisville Syracuse 4.70 0.6314
A Louisville UCF (0.90) 0.5000
H Florida St Louisville (1.90) 0.5248
H South Florida Louisville (16.10) 0.8855
A Louisville Boston College 4.50 0.6314
A Louisville Virginia 3.20 0.5744
H Pittsburgh Louisville 1.90 0.4752
H Wake Forest Louisville (3.10) 0.5744
H James Madison Louisville (19.90) 0.9840
A Louisville Clemson (15.30) 0.1259
H North Carolina St Louisville 3.00 0.4256
A Louisville Kentucky (6.90) 0.3229
Win Total 6.66
H/A North Carolina St Spread Win Probability
A North Carolina St East Carolina 13.80 0.8350
H Charleston Southern North Carolina St (42.98) 1.0000
H Texas Tech North Carolina St (11.50) 0.8061
H Connecticut North Carolina St (37.60) 1.0000
A North Carolina St Clemson (10.50) 0.2175
H Florida St North Carolina St (7.80) 0.7298
A North Carolina St Syracuse 9.50 0.7547
H Virginia Tech North Carolina St (15.10) 0.8741
H Wake Forest North Carolina St (8.90) 0.7464
H Boston College North Carolina St (15.10) 0.8741
A North Carolina St Louisville 3.00 0.5744
A North Carolina St North Carolina 1.90 0.5248
Win Total 8.94
H/A Syracuse Spread Win Probability
H Louisville Syracuse 4.70 0.3686
A Syracuse Connecticut 21.40 1.0000
H Purdue Syracuse 5.50 0.3487
H Virginia Syracuse (1.70) 0.5248
H Wagner Syracuse (47.88) 1.0000
H North Carolina St Syracuse 9.50 0.2453
A Syracuse Clemson (22.70) 0.0000
H Notre Dame Syracuse 14.70 0.1486
A Syracuse Pittsburgh (13.20) 0.1323
H Florida St Syracuse 4.60 0.3686
A Syracuse Wake Forest (8.90) 0.2536
A Syracuse Boston College (2.90) 0.4575
Win Total 4.85
H/A Wake Forest Spread Win Probability
H VMI Wake Forest (38.30) 1.0000
A Wake Forest Vanderbilt 15.20 0.8741
H Liberty Wake Forest (13.90) 0.8350
H Clemson Wake Forest 11.30 0.2107
A Wake Forest Florida St (3.40) 0.4256
H Army Wake Forest (10.70) 0.7925
H Boston College Wake Forest (9.00) 0.7505
A Wake Forest Louisville (3.10) 0.4256
A Wake Forest North Carolina St (8.90) 0.2636
H North Carolina Wake Forest (1.70) 0.5248
H Syracuse Wake Forest (8.90) 0.7464
A Wake Forest Duke 16.10 0.8855
Win Total 7.73
H/A Duke Spread Win Probability
H Temple Duke (7.80) 0.7298
A Duke Northwestern (11.80) 0.1939
H North Carolina A&T Duke (19.13) 0.9730
A Duke Kansas (6.00) 0.3358
H Virginia Duke 11.00 0.2007
A Duke Georgia Tech (10.40) 0.2264
H North Carolina Duke 17.20 0.0862
A Duke Miami FL (27.40) 0.0000
A Duke Boston College (15.60) 0.1195
H Virginia Tech Duke 9.90 0.2453
A Duke Pittsburgh (25.90) 0.0000
H Wake Forest Duke 16.10 0.1145
Win Total 3.23
H/A Georgia Tech Spread Win Probability
N Clemson Georgia Tech 23.70 0.0000
H Western Carolina Georgia Tech (27.70) 1.0000
H Mississippi Georgia Tech 14.70 0.1323
A Georgia Tech UCF (12.40) 0.1841
A Georgia Tech Pittsburgh (17.20) 0.0862
H Duke Georgia Tech (10.40) 0.7736
H Virginia Georgia Tech 3.40 0.4256
A Georgia Tech Florida St (13.60) 0.1650
A Georgia Tech Virginia Tech (6.20) 0.3358
H Miami FL Georgia Tech 14.50 0.1323
A Georgia Tech North Carolina (14.30) 0.1486
A Georgia Tech Georgia (33.70) 0.0000
Win Total 3.38
H/A Miami FL Spread Win Probability
H Bethune-Cookman Miami FL (53.48) 1.0000
H Southern Miss Miami FL (26.50) 1.0000
A Miami FL Texas A&M (5.80) 0.3487
H Middle Tennessee Miami FL (25.50) 1.0000
H North Carolina Miami FL (7.40) 0.7034
A Miami FL Virginia Tech 10.00 0.7736
H Duke Miami FL (27.40) 1.0000
A Miami FL Virginia 7.90 0.7298
H Florida St Miami FL (7.40) 0.7034
A Miami FL Georgia Tech 14.50 0.8677
A Miami FL Clemson (10.50) 0.2075
H Pittsburgh Miami FL (3.50) 0.6063
Win Total 8.94
H/A North Carolina Spread Win Probability
H Florida A&M North Carolina (41.20) 1.0000
A North Carolina Appalachian St 3.60 0.6063
A North Carolina Georgia St 9.00 0.7505
H Notre Dame North Carolina 7.10 0.2966
H Virginia Tech North Carolina (10.30) 0.7736
A North Carolina Miami FL (7.40) 0.2966
A North Carolina Duke 17.20 0.9138
H Pittsburgh North Carolina 0.80 0.5000
A North Carolina Virginia 3.00 0.5744
A North Carolina Wake Forest (1.70) 0.4752
H Georgia Tech North Carolina (14.30) 0.8514
H North Carolina St North Carolina 1.90 0.4752
Win Total 7.51
H/A Pittsburgh Spread Win Probability
H West Virginia Pittsburgh (10.60) 0.7925
H Tennessee Pittsburgh (0.70) 0.5000
A Pittsburgh Western Michigan 15.50 0.8805
H Rhode Island Pittsburgh (34.58) 1.0000
H Georgia Tech Pittsburgh (17.20) 0.9138
H Virginia Tech Pittsburgh (13.20) 0.8303
A Pittsburgh Louisville 1.90 0.5248
A Pittsburgh North Carolina 0.80 0.5000
H Syracuse Pittsburgh (13.20) 0.8303
A Pittsburgh Virginia 6.90 0.6771
H Duke Pittsburgh (25.90) 1.0000
A Pittsburgh Miami FL (3.50) 0.3937
Win Total 8.84
H/A Virginia Spread Win Probability
H Richmond Virginia (26.00) 1.0000
A Virginia Illinois 1.20 0.5124
H Old Dominion Virginia (15.10) 0.8741
A Virginia Syracuse (1.70) 0.4752
A Virginia Duke 11.00 0.7993
H Louisville Virginia 3.20 0.4256
A Virginia Georgia Tech 3.40 0.5744
H Miami FL Virginia 7.90 0.2702
H North Carolina Virginia 3.00 0.4256
H Pittsburgh Virginia 6.90 0.3229
H Coastal Carolina Virginia (8.10) 0.7381
A Virginia Virginia Tech (1.20) 0.4876
Win Total 6.91
H/A Virginia Tech Spread Win Probability
A Virginia Tech Old Dominion 9.10 0.7505
H Boston College Virginia Tech (2.20) 0.5336
H Wofford Virginia Tech (32.05) 1.0000
H West Virginia Virginia Tech 0.40 0.5000
A Virginia Tech North Carolina (10.30) 0.2264
A Virginia Tech Pittsburgh (13.20) 0.1697
H Miami FL Virginia Tech 10.00 0.2264
A Virginia Tech North Carolina St (15.10) 0.1259
H Georgia Tech Virginia Tech (6.20) 0.6642
A Virginia Tech Duke 9.90 0.7547
A Virginia Tech Liberty 0.60 0.5000
H Virginia Virginia Tech (1.20) 0.5124
Win Total 5.96