FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 14 - December 3

Business travel gets in the way of releasing this week's version of the Book in a more timely manner...but once again, better late than never.

Will recap the regular season, the playoff picks, BC's season, etc..all next week.

That said, a few fun things to note.

A change to our method of determining strength of record which is 50% of our rating. We are now using the ESPN methodology of how the average top 25 team would do against the schedule for that part of the puzzle. It has shifted things minimally, but is still more accurate than the way we've used the past few seasons.

If you scroll over to the right, you will see what record that average top 25 would have. For instance, Georgia is 12-0, but the average top 25 team would be projected to have a record of 8.996-3.004, on percentage then, Georgia is 133.387% of that average. Boston College on the other hand, is just 33.237% as the average top 25 team playing the Eagles schedule, would project to 9.026 wins and just 2.974 losses.

Still not buying USC.

The Trojans are still 16th in the Book power ratings and 8th overall, which sits them right in line with where most of the computer rankings have them. They are a 3.6 point dog vs Utah in the Pac 12 title game tonight.

The Book dropped one notch overall to #11 in the aggregate Prediction Tracker rankings...still a fantastic result year to date.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, CFP - College Football Play off Committee Rankings, Top 25 Wins/Losses - the projected record, the average Top 25 team would have playing that team's schedule.

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP SOS SOR
TOP 25
WINS
SOR
TOP 25
LOSS
1 GEORGIA 12 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 19 8.996 3.004
2 TCU 12 0 7 1 7 4 10 3 3 3 40 8.693 3.307
3 MICHIGAN 12 0 4 3 3 2 4 2 2 2 46 9.334 2.666
4 OHIO ST 11 1 2 4 2 3 3 5 5 5 33 8.721 3.279
5 TENNESSEE 10 2 3 6 5 6 5 7 8 7 28 8.482 3.518
6 ALABAMA 10 2 5 5 4 5 2 6 6 6 21 8.477 3.523
7 PENN ST 10 2 6 8 6 7 7 8 7 8 26 8.680 3.320
8 USC 11 1 16 7 11 8 14 4 4 4 50 9.481 2.519
9 LSU 9 3 13 9 15 13 12 11 13 14 16 8.070 3.930
10 CLEMSON 10 2 12 10 13 11 9 10 11 9 48 9.002 2.998
11 FLORIDA ST 9 3 10 11 16 15 13 14 14 13 51 8.687 3.313
12 KANSAS ST 9 3 11 13 10 9 11 13 10 10 11 8.805 3.195
13 WASHINGTON 10 2 17 14 14 16 22 9 9 12 65 9.850 2.150
14 MISSISSIPPI ST 8 4 20 12 21 18 18 25 25 24 13 7.825 4.175
15 OREGON 9 3 14 15 12 14 15 15 15 16 42 9.106 2.894
16 TEXAS 8 4 8 19 8 10 6 21 21 20 4 8.321 3.679
17 UTAH 9 3 9 21 9 12 8 12 12 11 53 9.533 2.467
18 OREGON ST 9 3 18 18 17 17 23 16 16 15 36 9.250 2.750
19 TULANE 10 2 37 16 34 20 30 18 18 18 76 10.199 1.801
20 SOUTH CAROLINA 8 4 33 20 38 23 51 20 20 19 39 8.380 3.620
21 NORTH CAROLINA 9 3 47 17 49 30 41 24 22 23 60 9.208 2.792
22 MISSISSIPPI 8 4 24 22 24 22 16 25 8.635 3.365
23 ILLINOIS 8 4 19 25 22 24 20 45 8.860 3.140
24 NOTRE DAME 8 4 15 27 18 19 17 19 19 21 44 9.087 2.913
25 UCLA 9 3 32 26 25 21 29 17 17 17 63 9.989 2.011
26 UTSA 10 2 55 24 63 36 57 23 24 110 10.865 1.135
27 MINNESOTA 8 4 21 33 23 31 19 64 9.437 2.563
28 TROY 10 2 61 23 61 37 65 98 10.858 1.142
29 TEXAS TECH 7 5 30 31 28 25 33 23 8.201 3.799
30 PURDUE 8 4 38 29 42 35 35 41 9.305 2.695
31 CINCINNATI 9 3 43 32 43 29 34 71 10.572 1.428
32 PITTSBURGH 8 4 31 38 36 33 32 55 9.736 2.264
33 IOWA 7 5 28 40 27 45 36 18 8.621 3.379
34 UCF 9 3 44 35 44 26 28 22 23 22 72 10.720 1.280
35 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 4 48 34 47 32 44 25 54 9.472 2.528
36 LOUISVILLE 7 5 29 43 31 27 25 35 8.700 3.300
37 BOISE ST 9 3 42 36 37 47 49 90 10.901 1.099
38 SOUTH ALABAMA 10 2 72 28 71 46 70 126 11.373 0.627
39 MARYLAND 7 5 34 42 40 44 31 37 8.687 3.313
40 KENTUCKY 7 5 27 46 29 28 40 20 8.842 3.158
41 DUKE 8 4 54 39 50 52 52 73 9.827 2.173
42 FRESNO ST 8 4 49 44 54 59 63 105 9.998 2.002
43 OKLAHOMA ST 7 5 41 47 33 42 43 43 8.910 3.090
44 SYRACUSE 7 5 57 41 62 48 48 78 8.631 3.369
45 ARKANSAS 6 6 25 50 30 41 39 9 8.028 3.972
46 OHIO 9 3 69 37 67 65 92 100 10.940 1.060
47 COASTAL CAROLINA 9 2 92 30 85 57 88 91 10.539 0.461
48 AIR FORCE 9 3 58 45 53 55 59 112 11.323 0.677
49 WASHINGTON ST 7 5 45 49 32 38 46 29 9.232 2.768
50 FLORIDA 6 6 26 56 26 34 26 6 8.449 3.551
51 JAMES MADISON 8 3 63 48 58 50 60 124 10.250 0.750
52 BAYLOR 6 6 23 62 20 39 21 32 8.705 3.295
53 WAKE FOREST 7 5 40 54 45 43 38 56 9.747 2.253
54 BYU 7 5 56 51 59 61 62 58 9.385 2.615
55 OKLAHOMA 6 6 22 64 19 40 24 15 8.977 3.023
56 WISCONSIN 6 6 35 63 35 54 27 31 8.878 3.122
57 MISSOURI 6 6 53 58 51 51 58 27 8.513 3.487
58 KANSAS 6 6 62 55 55 49 56 14 8.361 3.639
59 MARSHALL 8 4 73 53 69 58 68 103 11.030 0.970
60 SMU 7 5 60 61 57 53 61 61 10.085 1.915
61 LIBERTY 8 4 88 52 93 72 83 107 10.737 1.263
62 EAST CAROLINA 7 5 68 60 70 67 64 69 10.044 1.956
63 AUBURN 5 7 39 70 46 56 45 1 7.855 4.145
64 TEXAS A&M 5 7 36 71 39 64 37 30 7.958 4.042
65 WESTERN KENTUCKY 8 5 64 65 72 68 54 113 12.110 0.890
66 SAN JOSE ST 7 4 94 59 86 74 89 117 9.965 1.035
67 EASTERN MICHIGAN 8 4 96 57 94 91 105 127 11.291 0.709
68 HOUSTON 7 5 65 67 66 60 53 66 10.807 1.193
69 SAN DIEGO ST 7 5 82 66 78 76 90 93 10.608 1.392
70 WEST VIRGINIA 5 7 51 76 48 62 50 12 8.357 3.643
71 MICHIGAN ST 5 7 46 80 52 66 47 8 8.771 3.229
72 TOLEDO 7 5 87 69 83 84 81 125 10.891 1.109
73 GEORGIA TECH 5 7 78 75 80 77 79 24 8.152 3.848
74 NORTH TEXAS 7 5 86 72 92 78 77 119 11.141 0.859
75 MEMPHIS 6 6 59 81 56 69 55 75 10.548 1.452
76 VANDERBILT 5 7 90 74 90 71 96 10 8.030 3.970
77 WYOMING 7 5 102 68 100 83 102 88 10.837 1.163
78 ARIZONA 5 7 70 82 64 70 73 22 8.970 3.030
79 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7 5 110 73 109 92 95 123 11.220 0.780
80 APPALACHIAN ST 6 6 79 85 75 75 67 115 10.895 1.105
81 MIAMI FL 5 7 74 89 77 85 71 62 9.347 2.653
82 UAB 6 6 77 88 81 79 66 111 11.172 0.828
83 UTAH ST 6 6 100 78 101 95 107 80 10.315 1.685
84 BUFFALO 6 6 98 79 96 96 97 131 10.402 1.598
85 IOWA ST 4 8 50 95 41 63 42 7 8.291 3.709
86 LOUISIANA 6 6 75 90 73 73 75 95 11.511 0.489
87 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6 6 97 83 95 87 91 89 10.782 1.218
88 CONNECTICUT 6 6 113 77 115 101 120 97 10.264 1.736
89 SOUTHERN MISS 6 6 95 87 99 88 94 104 11.120 0.880
90 ARMY 5 6 66 94 76 89 76 118 10.216 0.784
91 MIAMI OH 6 6 106 86 103 104 111 120 10.918 1.082
92 NEBRASKA 4 8 52 105 60 86 69 34 9.138 2.862
93 BOWLING GREEN 6 6 116 84 117 103 121 86 10.863 1.137
94 INDIANA 4 8 80 96 82 81 82 3 8.398 3.602
95 NAVY 4 7 67 101 74 82 78 57 8.784 2.216
96 TULSA 5 7 83 97 87 93 86 68 10.510 1.490
97 KENT ST 5 7 101 93 97 97 98 82 9.991 2.009
98 UNLV 5 7 114 92 107 107 106 106 9.790 2.210
99 CALIFORNIA 4 8 76 106 65 80 72 38 9.407 2.593
100 RUTGERS 4 8 104 98 105 102 101 67 8.408 3.592
101 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 7 91 104 91 100 85 101 11.244 0.756
102 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5 7 103 99 102 109 113 94 10.842 1.158
103 UTEP 5 7 105 102 112 111 109 122 10.989 1.011
104 NEW MEXICO ST 5 6 125 91 125 118 125 129 9.734 1.266
105 BALL ST 5 7 108 103 106 108 116 108 11.191 0.809
106 RICE 5 7 119 100 118 110 117 87 10.934 1.066
107 GEORGIA ST 4 8 85 109 88 98 87 79 10.859 1.141
108 VIRGINIA 3 7 84 110 84 99 84 52 8.296 1.704
109 STANFORD 3 9 89 112 79 90 80 17 8.525 3.475
110 ARIZONA ST 3 9 71 116 68 94 74 47 9.444 2.556
111 VIRGINIA TECH 3 8 81 114 89 105 93 70 8.930 2.070
112 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 4 8 111 108 108 114 108 109 10.711 1.289
113 LA MONROE 4 8 118 107 119 112 118 74 10.259 1.741
114 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 9 99 115 104 106 100 49 9.026 2.974
115 TEXAS ST 4 8 121 111 124 116 114 121 11.178 0.822
116 TEMPLE 3 9 109 118 110 119 110 84 10.635 1.365
117 COLORADO ST 3 9 115 117 114 120 123 77 10.570 1.430
118 OLD DOMINION 3 9 112 121 111 113 104 81 10.982 1.018
119 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 3 9 117 123 116 124 119 116 11.326 0.674
120 LOUISIANA TECH 3 9 120 119 122 122 115 102 10.759 1.241
121 ARKANSAS ST 3 9 124 120 121 121 112 92 10.777 1.223
122 FLORIDA INTL 4 8 131 113 130 128 131 128 11.789 0.211
123 CHARLOTTE 3 9 128 122 128 125 126 99 11.131 0.869
124 HAWAII 3 10 122 124 126 126 129 96 11.863 1.137
125 NORTHWESTERN 1 11 93 128 98 115 99 5 8.450 3.550
126 AKRON 2 10 123 125 127 127 127 130 9.869 2.131
127 NEVADA 2 10 127 127 123 129 122 85 10.859 1.141
128 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 11 107 130 113 123 103 59 9.580 2.420
129 NEW MEXICO 2 10 129 126 129 130 128 83 10.705 1.295
130 COLORADO 1 11 126 129 120 117 124 2 8.694 3.306
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 11 130 131 131 131 130 114 10.969 1.031
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP
1 CLEMSON 10 2 12 10 13 11 9 10 11 9
2 FLORIDA ST 9 3 10 11 16 15 13 14 14 13
3 NORTH CAROLINA 9 3 47 17 49 30 41 24 22 23
4 PITTSBURGH 8 4 31 38 36 33 32
5 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 4 48 34 47 32 44 25
6 LOUISVILLE 7 5 29 43 31 27 25
7 DUKE 8 4 54 39 50 52 52
8 SYRACUSE 7 5 57 41 62 48 48
9 WAKE FOREST 7 5 40 54 45 43 38
10 GEORGIA TECH 5 7 78 75 80 77 79
11 MIAMI FL 5 7 74 88 77 85 71
12 VIRGINIA 3 7 84 110 84 99 84
13 VIRGINIA TECH 3 8 81 114 89 105 93
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 9 99 115 104 106 100

FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Buffalo 13.2 Akron 77.1%
at UTSA 10.5 North Texas 71.6%
Utah 3.6 USC 57.4%
TCU 1.8 Kansas St 53.7%
Ohio 4.8 Toledo 59.9%
at Troy 9.2 Coastal Carolina 69.0%
Georgia 12.0 LSU 74.7%
at Tulane 5.3 UCF 60.9%
at Boise St 4.5 Fresno St 59.3%
Michigan 18.5 Purdue 88.1%
Clemson 11.3 North Carolina 73.3%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 6 4 0.600
Total 7 4 0.636
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 3 7 0.300
Total 4 7 0.364
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 33 27 0.550
Previous 298 343 0.46490
Total 331 370 0.47218
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 42 21 0.667
Previous 468 188 0.713
Total 510 209 0.70932
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.4460 63
Previous 12.3742 659
Total 12.3805 722
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 284.6814 63
Previous 242.1120 659
Total 245.8265 722
Bias Avg Games
Week 3.0175 63
Previous 0.2252 659
Total 0.4688 722