Business travel gets in the way of releasing this week's version of the Book in a more timely manner...but once again, better late than never.
Will recap the regular season, the playoff picks, BC's season, etc..all next week.
That said, a few fun things to note.
A change to our method of determining strength of record which is 50% of our rating. We are now using the ESPN methodology of how the average top 25 team would do against the schedule for that part of the puzzle. It has shifted things minimally, but is still more accurate than the way we've used the past few seasons.
If you scroll over to the right, you will see what record that average top 25 would have. For instance, Georgia is 12-0, but the average top 25 team would be projected to have a record of 8.996-3.004, on percentage then, Georgia is 133.387% of that average. Boston College on the other hand, is just 33.237% as the average top 25 team playing the Eagles schedule, would project to 9.026 wins and just 2.974 losses.
Still not buying USC.
The Trojans are still 16th in the Book power ratings and 8th overall, which sits them right in line with where most of the computer rankings have them. They are a 3.6 point dog vs Utah in the Pac 12 title game tonight.
The Book dropped one notch overall to #11 in the aggregate Prediction Tracker rankings...still a fantastic result year to date.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, CFP - College Football Play off Committee Rankings, Top 25 Wins/Losses - the projected record, the average Top 25 team would have playing that team's schedule.
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP | SOS | SOR TOP 25 WINS |
SOR TOP 25 LOSS |
1 | GEORGIA | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8.996 | 3.004 |
2 | TCU | 12 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 40 | 8.693 | 3.307 |
3 | MICHIGAN | 12 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 46 | 9.334 | 2.666 |
4 | OHIO ST | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 33 | 8.721 | 3.279 |
5 | TENNESSEE | 10 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 8.482 | 3.518 |
6 | ALABAMA | 10 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 8.477 | 3.523 |
7 | PENN ST | 10 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 26 | 8.680 | 3.320 |
8 | USC | 11 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 50 | 9.481 | 2.519 |
9 | LSU | 9 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 8.070 | 3.930 |
10 | CLEMSON | 10 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 48 | 9.002 | 2.998 |
11 | FLORIDA ST | 9 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 51 | 8.687 | 3.313 |
12 | KANSAS ST | 9 | 3 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 8.805 | 3.195 |
13 | WASHINGTON | 10 | 2 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 22 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 65 | 9.850 | 2.150 |
14 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 8 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 7.825 | 4.175 |
15 | OREGON | 9 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 42 | 9.106 | 2.894 |
16 | TEXAS | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 8.321 | 3.679 |
17 | UTAH | 9 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 53 | 9.533 | 2.467 |
18 | OREGON ST | 9 | 3 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 36 | 9.250 | 2.750 |
19 | TULANE | 10 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 34 | 20 | 30 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 76 | 10.199 | 1.801 |
20 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 8 | 4 | 33 | 20 | 38 | 23 | 51 | 20 | 20 | 19 | 39 | 8.380 | 3.620 |
21 | NORTH CAROLINA | 9 | 3 | 47 | 17 | 49 | 30 | 41 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 60 | 9.208 | 2.792 |
22 | MISSISSIPPI | 8 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 24 | 22 | 16 | 25 | 8.635 | 3.365 | |||
23 | ILLINOIS | 8 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 45 | 8.860 | 3.140 | |||
24 | NOTRE DAME | 8 | 4 | 15 | 27 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 44 | 9.087 | 2.913 |
25 | UCLA | 9 | 3 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 21 | 29 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 63 | 9.989 | 2.011 |
26 | UTSA | 10 | 2 | 55 | 24 | 63 | 36 | 57 | 23 | 24 | 110 | 10.865 | 1.135 | |
27 | MINNESOTA | 8 | 4 | 21 | 33 | 23 | 31 | 19 | 64 | 9.437 | 2.563 | |||
28 | TROY | 10 | 2 | 61 | 23 | 61 | 37 | 65 | 98 | 10.858 | 1.142 | |||
29 | TEXAS TECH | 7 | 5 | 30 | 31 | 28 | 25 | 33 | 23 | 8.201 | 3.799 | |||
30 | PURDUE | 8 | 4 | 38 | 29 | 42 | 35 | 35 | 41 | 9.305 | 2.695 | |||
31 | CINCINNATI | 9 | 3 | 43 | 32 | 43 | 29 | 34 | 71 | 10.572 | 1.428 | |||
32 | PITTSBURGH | 8 | 4 | 31 | 38 | 36 | 33 | 32 | 55 | 9.736 | 2.264 | |||
33 | IOWA | 7 | 5 | 28 | 40 | 27 | 45 | 36 | 18 | 8.621 | 3.379 | |||
34 | UCF | 9 | 3 | 44 | 35 | 44 | 26 | 28 | 22 | 23 | 22 | 72 | 10.720 | 1.280 |
35 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 8 | 4 | 48 | 34 | 47 | 32 | 44 | 25 | 54 | 9.472 | 2.528 | ||
36 | LOUISVILLE | 7 | 5 | 29 | 43 | 31 | 27 | 25 | 35 | 8.700 | 3.300 | |||
37 | BOISE ST | 9 | 3 | 42 | 36 | 37 | 47 | 49 | 90 | 10.901 | 1.099 | |||
38 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 10 | 2 | 72 | 28 | 71 | 46 | 70 | 126 | 11.373 | 0.627 | |||
39 | MARYLAND | 7 | 5 | 34 | 42 | 40 | 44 | 31 | 37 | 8.687 | 3.313 | |||
40 | KENTUCKY | 7 | 5 | 27 | 46 | 29 | 28 | 40 | 20 | 8.842 | 3.158 | |||
41 | DUKE | 8 | 4 | 54 | 39 | 50 | 52 | 52 | 73 | 9.827 | 2.173 | |||
42 | FRESNO ST | 8 | 4 | 49 | 44 | 54 | 59 | 63 | 105 | 9.998 | 2.002 | |||
43 | OKLAHOMA ST | 7 | 5 | 41 | 47 | 33 | 42 | 43 | 43 | 8.910 | 3.090 | |||
44 | SYRACUSE | 7 | 5 | 57 | 41 | 62 | 48 | 48 | 78 | 8.631 | 3.369 | |||
45 | ARKANSAS | 6 | 6 | 25 | 50 | 30 | 41 | 39 | 9 | 8.028 | 3.972 | |||
46 | OHIO | 9 | 3 | 69 | 37 | 67 | 65 | 92 | 100 | 10.940 | 1.060 | |||
47 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 9 | 2 | 92 | 30 | 85 | 57 | 88 | 91 | 10.539 | 0.461 | |||
48 | AIR FORCE | 9 | 3 | 58 | 45 | 53 | 55 | 59 | 112 | 11.323 | 0.677 | |||
49 | WASHINGTON ST | 7 | 5 | 45 | 49 | 32 | 38 | 46 | 29 | 9.232 | 2.768 | |||
50 | FLORIDA | 6 | 6 | 26 | 56 | 26 | 34 | 26 | 6 | 8.449 | 3.551 | |||
51 | JAMES MADISON | 8 | 3 | 63 | 48 | 58 | 50 | 60 | 124 | 10.250 | 0.750 | |||
52 | BAYLOR | 6 | 6 | 23 | 62 | 20 | 39 | 21 | 32 | 8.705 | 3.295 | |||
53 | WAKE FOREST | 7 | 5 | 40 | 54 | 45 | 43 | 38 | 56 | 9.747 | 2.253 | |||
54 | BYU | 7 | 5 | 56 | 51 | 59 | 61 | 62 | 58 | 9.385 | 2.615 | |||
55 | OKLAHOMA | 6 | 6 | 22 | 64 | 19 | 40 | 24 | 15 | 8.977 | 3.023 | |||
56 | WISCONSIN | 6 | 6 | 35 | 63 | 35 | 54 | 27 | 31 | 8.878 | 3.122 | |||
57 | MISSOURI | 6 | 6 | 53 | 58 | 51 | 51 | 58 | 27 | 8.513 | 3.487 | |||
58 | KANSAS | 6 | 6 | 62 | 55 | 55 | 49 | 56 | 14 | 8.361 | 3.639 | |||
59 | MARSHALL | 8 | 4 | 73 | 53 | 69 | 58 | 68 | 103 | 11.030 | 0.970 | |||
60 | SMU | 7 | 5 | 60 | 61 | 57 | 53 | 61 | 61 | 10.085 | 1.915 | |||
61 | LIBERTY | 8 | 4 | 88 | 52 | 93 | 72 | 83 | 107 | 10.737 | 1.263 | |||
62 | EAST CAROLINA | 7 | 5 | 68 | 60 | 70 | 67 | 64 | 69 | 10.044 | 1.956 | |||
63 | AUBURN | 5 | 7 | 39 | 70 | 46 | 56 | 45 | 1 | 7.855 | 4.145 | |||
64 | TEXAS A&M | 5 | 7 | 36 | 71 | 39 | 64 | 37 | 30 | 7.958 | 4.042 | |||
65 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 8 | 5 | 64 | 65 | 72 | 68 | 54 | 113 | 12.110 | 0.890 | |||
66 | SAN JOSE ST | 7 | 4 | 94 | 59 | 86 | 74 | 89 | 117 | 9.965 | 1.035 | |||
67 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 8 | 4 | 96 | 57 | 94 | 91 | 105 | 127 | 11.291 | 0.709 | |||
68 | HOUSTON | 7 | 5 | 65 | 67 | 66 | 60 | 53 | 66 | 10.807 | 1.193 | |||
69 | SAN DIEGO ST | 7 | 5 | 82 | 66 | 78 | 76 | 90 | 93 | 10.608 | 1.392 | |||
70 | WEST VIRGINIA | 5 | 7 | 51 | 76 | 48 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 8.357 | 3.643 | |||
71 | MICHIGAN ST | 5 | 7 | 46 | 80 | 52 | 66 | 47 | 8 | 8.771 | 3.229 | |||
72 | TOLEDO | 7 | 5 | 87 | 69 | 83 | 84 | 81 | 125 | 10.891 | 1.109 | |||
73 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 7 | 78 | 75 | 80 | 77 | 79 | 24 | 8.152 | 3.848 | |||
74 | NORTH TEXAS | 7 | 5 | 86 | 72 | 92 | 78 | 77 | 119 | 11.141 | 0.859 | |||
75 | MEMPHIS | 6 | 6 | 59 | 81 | 56 | 69 | 55 | 75 | 10.548 | 1.452 | |||
76 | VANDERBILT | 5 | 7 | 90 | 74 | 90 | 71 | 96 | 10 | 8.030 | 3.970 | |||
77 | WYOMING | 7 | 5 | 102 | 68 | 100 | 83 | 102 | 88 | 10.837 | 1.163 | |||
78 | ARIZONA | 5 | 7 | 70 | 82 | 64 | 70 | 73 | 22 | 8.970 | 3.030 | |||
79 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 7 | 5 | 110 | 73 | 109 | 92 | 95 | 123 | 11.220 | 0.780 | |||
80 | APPALACHIAN ST | 6 | 6 | 79 | 85 | 75 | 75 | 67 | 115 | 10.895 | 1.105 | |||
81 | MIAMI FL | 5 | 7 | 74 | 89 | 77 | 85 | 71 | 62 | 9.347 | 2.653 | |||
82 | UAB | 6 | 6 | 77 | 88 | 81 | 79 | 66 | 111 | 11.172 | 0.828 | |||
83 | UTAH ST | 6 | 6 | 100 | 78 | 101 | 95 | 107 | 80 | 10.315 | 1.685 | |||
84 | BUFFALO | 6 | 6 | 98 | 79 | 96 | 96 | 97 | 131 | 10.402 | 1.598 | |||
85 | IOWA ST | 4 | 8 | 50 | 95 | 41 | 63 | 42 | 7 | 8.291 | 3.709 | |||
86 | LOUISIANA | 6 | 6 | 75 | 90 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 95 | 11.511 | 0.489 | |||
87 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 6 | 6 | 97 | 83 | 95 | 87 | 91 | 89 | 10.782 | 1.218 | |||
88 | CONNECTICUT | 6 | 6 | 113 | 77 | 115 | 101 | 120 | 97 | 10.264 | 1.736 | |||
89 | SOUTHERN MISS | 6 | 6 | 95 | 87 | 99 | 88 | 94 | 104 | 11.120 | 0.880 | |||
90 | ARMY | 5 | 6 | 66 | 94 | 76 | 89 | 76 | 118 | 10.216 | 0.784 | |||
91 | MIAMI OH | 6 | 6 | 106 | 86 | 103 | 104 | 111 | 120 | 10.918 | 1.082 | |||
92 | NEBRASKA | 4 | 8 | 52 | 105 | 60 | 86 | 69 | 34 | 9.138 | 2.862 | |||
93 | BOWLING GREEN | 6 | 6 | 116 | 84 | 117 | 103 | 121 | 86 | 10.863 | 1.137 | |||
94 | INDIANA | 4 | 8 | 80 | 96 | 82 | 81 | 82 | 3 | 8.398 | 3.602 | |||
95 | NAVY | 4 | 7 | 67 | 101 | 74 | 82 | 78 | 57 | 8.784 | 2.216 | |||
96 | TULSA | 5 | 7 | 83 | 97 | 87 | 93 | 86 | 68 | 10.510 | 1.490 | |||
97 | KENT ST | 5 | 7 | 101 | 93 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 82 | 9.991 | 2.009 | |||
98 | UNLV | 5 | 7 | 114 | 92 | 107 | 107 | 106 | 106 | 9.790 | 2.210 | |||
99 | CALIFORNIA | 4 | 8 | 76 | 106 | 65 | 80 | 72 | 38 | 9.407 | 2.593 | |||
100 | RUTGERS | 4 | 8 | 104 | 98 | 105 | 102 | 101 | 67 | 8.408 | 3.592 | |||
101 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 5 | 7 | 91 | 104 | 91 | 100 | 85 | 101 | 11.244 | 0.756 | |||
102 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 7 | 103 | 99 | 102 | 109 | 113 | 94 | 10.842 | 1.158 | |||
103 | UTEP | 5 | 7 | 105 | 102 | 112 | 111 | 109 | 122 | 10.989 | 1.011 | |||
104 | NEW MEXICO ST | 5 | 6 | 125 | 91 | 125 | 118 | 125 | 129 | 9.734 | 1.266 | |||
105 | BALL ST | 5 | 7 | 108 | 103 | 106 | 108 | 116 | 108 | 11.191 | 0.809 | |||
106 | RICE | 5 | 7 | 119 | 100 | 118 | 110 | 117 | 87 | 10.934 | 1.066 | |||
107 | GEORGIA ST | 4 | 8 | 85 | 109 | 88 | 98 | 87 | 79 | 10.859 | 1.141 | |||
108 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 7 | 84 | 110 | 84 | 99 | 84 | 52 | 8.296 | 1.704 | |||
109 | STANFORD | 3 | 9 | 89 | 112 | 79 | 90 | 80 | 17 | 8.525 | 3.475 | |||
110 | ARIZONA ST | 3 | 9 | 71 | 116 | 68 | 94 | 74 | 47 | 9.444 | 2.556 | |||
111 | VIRGINIA TECH | 3 | 8 | 81 | 114 | 89 | 105 | 93 | 70 | 8.930 | 2.070 | |||
112 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 4 | 8 | 111 | 108 | 108 | 114 | 108 | 109 | 10.711 | 1.289 | |||
113 | LA MONROE | 4 | 8 | 118 | 107 | 119 | 112 | 118 | 74 | 10.259 | 1.741 | |||
114 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 3 | 9 | 99 | 115 | 104 | 106 | 100 | 49 | 9.026 | 2.974 | |||
115 | TEXAS ST | 4 | 8 | 121 | 111 | 124 | 116 | 114 | 121 | 11.178 | 0.822 | |||
116 | TEMPLE | 3 | 9 | 109 | 118 | 110 | 119 | 110 | 84 | 10.635 | 1.365 | |||
117 | COLORADO ST | 3 | 9 | 115 | 117 | 114 | 120 | 123 | 77 | 10.570 | 1.430 | |||
118 | OLD DOMINION | 3 | 9 | 112 | 121 | 111 | 113 | 104 | 81 | 10.982 | 1.018 | |||
119 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 3 | 9 | 117 | 123 | 116 | 124 | 119 | 116 | 11.326 | 0.674 | |||
120 | LOUISIANA TECH | 3 | 9 | 120 | 119 | 122 | 122 | 115 | 102 | 10.759 | 1.241 | |||
121 | ARKANSAS ST | 3 | 9 | 124 | 120 | 121 | 121 | 112 | 92 | 10.777 | 1.223 | |||
122 | FLORIDA INTL | 4 | 8 | 131 | 113 | 130 | 128 | 131 | 128 | 11.789 | 0.211 | |||
123 | CHARLOTTE | 3 | 9 | 128 | 122 | 128 | 125 | 126 | 99 | 11.131 | 0.869 | |||
124 | HAWAII | 3 | 10 | 122 | 124 | 126 | 126 | 129 | 96 | 11.863 | 1.137 | |||
125 | NORTHWESTERN | 1 | 11 | 93 | 128 | 98 | 115 | 99 | 5 | 8.450 | 3.550 | |||
126 | AKRON | 2 | 10 | 123 | 125 | 127 | 127 | 127 | 130 | 9.869 | 2.131 | |||
127 | NEVADA | 2 | 10 | 127 | 127 | 123 | 129 | 122 | 85 | 10.859 | 1.141 | |||
128 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 1 | 11 | 107 | 130 | 113 | 123 | 103 | 59 | 9.580 | 2.420 | |||
129 | NEW MEXICO | 2 | 10 | 129 | 126 | 129 | 130 | 128 | 83 | 10.705 | 1.295 | |||
130 | COLORADO | 1 | 11 | 126 | 129 | 120 | 117 | 124 | 2 | 8.694 | 3.306 | |||
131 | MASSACHUSETTS | 1 | 11 | 130 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 130 | 114 | 10.969 | 1.031 |
ACC | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP |
1 | CLEMSON | 10 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
2 | FLORIDA ST | 9 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
3 | NORTH CAROLINA | 9 | 3 | 47 | 17 | 49 | 30 | 41 | 24 | 22 | 23 |
4 | PITTSBURGH | 8 | 4 | 31 | 38 | 36 | 33 | 32 | |||
5 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 8 | 4 | 48 | 34 | 47 | 32 | 44 | 25 | ||
6 | LOUISVILLE | 7 | 5 | 29 | 43 | 31 | 27 | 25 | |||
7 | DUKE | 8 | 4 | 54 | 39 | 50 | 52 | 52 | |||
8 | SYRACUSE | 7 | 5 | 57 | 41 | 62 | 48 | 48 | |||
9 | WAKE FOREST | 7 | 5 | 40 | 54 | 45 | 43 | 38 | |||
10 | GEORGIA TECH | 5 | 7 | 78 | 75 | 80 | 77 | 79 | |||
11 | MIAMI FL | 5 | 7 | 74 | 88 | 77 | 85 | 71 | |||
12 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 7 | 84 | 110 | 84 | 99 | 84 | |||
13 | VIRGINIA TECH | 3 | 8 | 81 | 114 | 89 | 105 | 93 | |||
14 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 3 | 9 | 99 | 115 | 104 | 106 | 100 |
FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | WIN PROBABILITY |
at Buffalo | 13.2 | Akron | 77.1% |
at UTSA | 10.5 | North Texas | 71.6% |
Utah | 3.6 | USC | 57.4% |
TCU | 1.8 | Kansas St | 53.7% |
Ohio | 4.8 | Toledo | 59.9% |
at Troy | 9.2 | Coastal Carolina | 69.0% |
Georgia | 12.0 | LSU | 74.7% |
at Tulane | 5.3 | UCF | 60.9% |
at Boise St | 4.5 | Fresno St | 59.3% |
Michigan | 18.5 | Purdue | 88.1% |
Clemson | 11.3 | North Carolina | 73.3% |
BC Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 6 | 4 | 0.600 |
Total | 7 | 4 | 0.636 |
BC vs Spread | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 3 | 7 | 0.300 |
Total | 4 | 7 | 0.364 |
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Pct. |
Week | 33 | 27 | 0.550 |
Previous | 298 | 343 | 0.46490 |
Total | 331 | 370 | 0.47218 |
Pct Correct | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 42 | 21 | 0.667 |
Previous | 468 | 188 | 0.713 |
Total | 510 | 209 | 0.70932 |
Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 12.4460 | 63 | |
Previous | 12.3742 | 659 | |
Total | 12.3805 | 722 | |
Mean Square Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 284.6814 | 63 | |
Previous | 242.1120 | 659 | |
Total | 245.8265 | 722 | |
Bias | Avg | Games | |
Week | 3.0175 | 63 | |
Previous | 0.2252 | 659 | |
Total | 0.4688 | 722 |
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