FanPost

The Book 2022: The Bowls

The bowls are a different beast.

With the advent of the College Football Playoff, transfer portal and opt outs becoming more and more frequent, games have really become a combination of glorified exhibitions or a chance for coaches to play younger players and get them experience for the next season.

The chart below shows how bowl games impact our results. Now we’ve been inconsistent in terms of the spreads we use to measure the spread results (this year and last year we are using midweek Vegas line numbers) and they have noticeably dropped our overall number against the line. However, I would argue the overall accuracy has improved.

Even the actual win probability for bowl games based on point spreads are different for bowl games vs regular season games. It’s not overly significant, but close to half a percentage point difference in the probability.

During the regular season, we benefit in picking winners straight up with all of the Power five vs Group of Five games and in bowl season, the games are generally more even matched, but still, almost everywhere across the board, our numbers are poorer for bowl games vs regular season games.

Regular Season Bowl Games
Year vs Spread Straight Up vs Spread Straight Up
2022 0.475 0.710 TBD TBD
2021 0.478 0.701 0.444 0.500
2020 0.511 0.713 0.360 0.654
2019 0.494 0.760 0.526 0.750
2018 0.530 0.753 0.472 0.436
2017 0.503 0.742 0.526 0.475
2016 0.547 0.729 0.610 0.683
2015 0.502 0.772 0.525 0.700

It’s a major reason that although I will post final ratings based on the outcome of bowl games, outside of the three CFP games, the results of those games will not figure into my 2023 pre-season ratings.

After the bowl games, I will post the CFP title game pick, but also what I believe are really insightful looks into the 2022 Boston College season, focused on reasons why BC was always more likely to be a sub .500 team this season.

Very pleased with our overall results vs other computer systems as captured in the Prediction Tracker. If you scroll to the very bottom, you will see those. The Book and New Book are dead even, tied for 10th, which gives me great hope that I can make even marginal changes into how the New Book is calculated and get a bit higher.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
UAB 8.6 Miami OH 65.7%
UTSA 1.5 Troy 52.6%
Louisville 3.9 Cincinnati 57.0%
Oregon St 3.5 Florida 56.3%
Fresno St 1.3 Washington St 52.2%
Southern Miss 9.2 Rice 66.8%
BYU 0.4 SMU 50.5%
Boise St 10.3 North Texas 68.8%
Marshall 11.7 Connecticut 71.4%
San Jose St 0.9 Eastern Michigan 51.5%
Toledo 2.3 Liberty 54.0%
Western Kentucky 1.5 South Alabama 52.6%
Baylor 10.9 Air Force 70.0%
Houston 0.8 Louisiana 51.3%
Wake Forest 3.6 Missouri 56.5%
San Diego St 7.6 Middle Tennessee 63.9%
Bowling Green 4.6 New Mexico St 58.3%
Georgia Southern 1.9 Buffalo 53.3%
Memphis 11.2 Utah St 70.5%
East Carolina 7.0 Coastal Carolina 62.7%
Wisconsin 2.0 Oklahoma St 53.5%
UCF 1.1 Duke 51.8%
Arkansas 10.9 Kansas 70.0%
Oregon 13.0 North Carolina 73.8%
Mississippi 0.9 Texas Tech 51.5%
Minnesota 10.3 Syracuse 68.8%
Florida St 5.9 Oklahoma 60.7%
Texas 5.3 Washington 59.6%
Maryland 3.3 North Carolina St 55.9%
Pittsburgh 0.5 UCLA 50.7%
Notre Dame 5.9 South Carolina 60.7%
Ohio 6.4 Wyoming 61.6%
Tennessee 7.7 Clemson 64.0%
Alabama 7.6 Kansas St 63.9%
Kentucky 0.4 Iowa 50.5%
Michigan 8.1 TCU 64.8%
Georgia 3.2 Ohio St 55.7%
Illinois 0.6 Mississippi St 50.9%
USC 2.8 Tulane 55.0%
LSU 7.8 Purdue 64.2%
Penn St 1.2 Utah 52.0%

Vs The Vegas Spread

Won Lost Pct.
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 338 374 0.47472
Total 339 374 0.47546
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 518 212 0.710
Total 519 212 0.70999
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 1.4000 1
Previous 12.3534 733
Total 12.3653 734
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 7.8400 1
Previous 244.53 733
Total 244.20 734
Bias Avg Games
Week 1.400 1
Previous 0.517 733
Total 0.518 734
Rank System Pct.
Correct
Against
Spread
Absolute
Error
Bias Mean
Square
Error
games suw sul atsw atsl Pct
Rank
Spread
Rank
Abs Error
Rank
Bias
Rank
MSE
Rank
Total
1 Line (opening) 0.7125 0.5041 12.0688 0.7922 234.323 734 523 211 306 301 5 12 2 29 2 50
2 Massey Ratings 0.7030 0.5303 12.4826 0.0450 249.856 734 516 218 385 341 15 3 14 5 13 50
3 Sagarin Ratings 0.7125 0.5007 12.4980 (0.0756) 248.853 734 523 211 364 363 5 18 15 6 12 56
4 Donchess Inference 0.7085 0.5182 12.4769 0.6106 250.509 734 520 214 370 344 11 4 13 20 15 63
5 Line (updated) 0.7207 0.4783 12.0668 0.7044 233.535 734 529 205 154 168 1 42 1 26 1 71
6 David Harville 0.6989 0.5076 12.5319 0.1357 252.090 734 513 221 368 357 20 9 17 9 17 72
7 ESPN FPI 0.7098 0.5035 12.3104 1.1218 243.179 727 516 211 362 357 10 13 5 40 5 73
8 System Median 0.6976 0.5014 12.3899 0.6008 245.788 734 512 222 359 357 22 17 8 19 8 74
9 Dokter Entropy 0.7125 0.4883 12.2950 1.1206 241.418 734 523 211 354 371 5 27 4 39 4 79
10 The Book 0.7100 0.4755 12.3384 0.5180 244.200 734 519 212 339 374 9 46 6 16 6 83
11 New Book 0.7112 0.4931 12.5892 0.7430 244.210 734 522 212 355 365 8 22 18 28 7 83
12 Computer Adjusted Line 0.7194 0.4576 12.0967 0.6880 234.382 734 528 206 194 230 2 53 3 24 3 85
13 Sagarin Golden Mean 0.6867 0.5062 12.5305 0.0408 252.109 734 504 230 368 359 38 10 16 4 18 86
14 Pi-Ratings Mean 0.7153 0.4840 12.3802 1.0293 245.829 734 525 209 347 370 3 32 7 37 9 88
15 Sagarin Points 0.6962 0.4966 12.5901 (0.0965) 252.687 734 511 223 360 365 25 21 19 8 19 92
16 TeamRankings.com 0.7071 0.4722 12.4433 0.3095 248.796 734 519 215 340 380 12 48 9 14 11 94
17 Pi-Rate Ratings 0.7139 0.4868 12.4515 1.1526 250.010 734 524 210 350 369 4 28 10 41 14 97
18 Sagarin Recent 0.7003 0.4849 12.7008 0.0385 257.095 734 514 220 352 374 18 30 24 3 22 97
19 System Average 0.6921 0.4904 12.4664 0.6282 247.934 734 508 226 356 370 31 26 11 22 10 100
20 Talisman Red 0.6962 0.5158 12.9900 0.2988 272.136 734 511 223 375 352 25 7 32 11 32 107
21 Laz Index 0.6954 0.5138 12.9011 0.5203 263.579 732 509 223 372 352 27 8 30 17 27 109
22 PI-Rate Bias 0.7071 0.4834 12.4738 1.1651 250.566 734 519 215 350 374 12 33 12 43 16 116
23 Payne Power Ratings 0.6976 0.4911 12.8914 0.3181 266.047 734 512 222 357 370 22 25 29 15 29 120
24 Pigskin Index 0.7030 0.4848 12.5912 1.1556 254.638 734 516 218 335 356 15 31 20 42 21 129
25 Edward Kambour 0.6899 0.4828 12.6733 0.6257 258.656 732 505 227 350 375 34 35 22 21 23 135
26 Waywardtrends 0.6839 0.5041 12.8424 0.9349 265.312 734 502 232 366 360 40 11 27 34 28 140
27 Roundtable 0.6834 0.5030 13.0444 0.5502 279.380 518 354 164 253 250 41 15 34 18 39 147
28 Versus Sports Simulator 0.7018 0.4669 12.7812 0.8352 262.323 731 513 218 338 386 17 50 25 30 26 148
29 Brent Craig 0.7035 0.4540 12.6382 1.2521 253.525 725 510 215 326 392 14 55 21 45 20 155
30 Moore Power Ratings 0.6849 0.4786 13.1454 0.0164 275.045 733 502 231 347 378 39 41 39 2 34 155
31 Dave Congrove 0.6880 0.5028 12.9829 1.1719 267.081 734 505 229 365 361 36 16 31 44 30 157
32 ARGH Power Ratings 0.6826 0.4791 13.1308 0.0102 277.212 734 501 233 333 362 44 39 38 1 36 158
33 Keeper 0.6989 0.5179 13.2651 1.7341 282.545 734 513 221 376 350 20 5 43 51 44 163
34 Stat Fox 0.6901 0.4863 12.8072 2.2510 261.635 726 501 225 338 357 33 29 26 54 24 166
35 FEI Projections 0.6832 0.4913 12.6950 (1.8056) 262.049 584 399 185 283 293 42 24 23 52 25 166
36 Dunkel Index 0.6969 0.4969 13.1049 1.3470 279.607 640 446 194 316 320 24 20 37 46 41 168
37 Laffaye RWP 0.6912 0.4829 13.5655 (0.0865) 291.854 680 470 210 325 348 32 34 49 7 46 168
38 Billingsley 0.6739 0.5035 13.4773 0.3087 292.379 733 494 239 365 360 48 14 47 13 47 169
39 Bihl System 0.6732 0.4816 12.8694 0.7020 271.105 410 276 134 196 211 49 36 28 25 31 169
40 Daniel Curry Index 0.6831 0.4993 13.1995 0.8613 281.238 732 500 232 362 363 43 19 41 32 42 177
41 Payne W/L 0.6662 0.4924 13.5598 (0.1419) 294.829 734 489 245 357 368 53 23 48 10 48 182
42 Logistic Regression 0.6678 0.5395 14.4786 (0.6481) 369.854 307 205 102 164 140 52 1 54 23 55 185
43 DP Dwiggins 0.6999 0.4773 13.3520 (0.9918) 284.068 733 513 220 337 369 19 43 45 36 45 188
44 Born Power Index 0.6948 0.4773 13.0582 1.4081 274.621 734 510 224 347 380 28 44 35 48 33 188
45 Linear Regression 0.6938 0.4803 12.9971 1.5194 279.484 307 213 94 146 158 29 37 33 49 40 188
46 Beck Elo 0.6826 0.4800 13.1857 0.9719 277.146 734 501 233 348 377 44 38 40 35 35 192
47 Howell 0.6826 0.4748 13.4441 0.3012 295.329 734 501 233 330 365 44 47 46 12 49 198
48 Payne Predict 0.6880 0.4655 13.2324 0.8879 278.684 734 505 229 337 387 36 52 42 33 38 201
49 Massey Consensus 0.6894 0.4691 13.0583 1.6156 277.667 734 506 228 341 386 35 49 36 50 37 207
50 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.6731 0.5388 14.6042 1.3512 335.523 260 175 85 139 119 50 2 55 47 54 208
51 Stephen Kerns 0.6935 0.4772 14.0415 0.8488 315.906 734 509 225 345 378 30 45 51 31 53 210
52 Loudsound.org 0.6644 0.5168 13.9540 (3.3022) 309.256 718 477 241 354 331 54 6 50 55 50 215
53 PerformanZ Ratings 0.6703 0.4787 14.1244 1.0690 314.007 734 492 242 348 379 51 40 53 38 52 234
54 Cleanup Hitter 0.6567 0.4661 14.0518 0.7276 309.980 734 482 252 330 378 55 51 52 27 51 236
55 Catherwood Ratings 0.6744 0.4558 13.3365 2.1458 281.862 734 495 239 320 382 47 54 44 53 43 241