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The Book 2022: Week 10 - November 5

Despite pain not seen in these parts since in nearly half a century after the UConn loss, we are back it, with a positive attitude, the Duke game to "look forward to" and the CFP to talk about...so let's get to it.

BOSTON COLLEGE

A truly painful week for our Eagles. The loss to UConn, totally unforeseen at the season's inception, where BC was a 21.4 point favorite with a 95% chance to win, dropped to a 9.1 point favorite with a 69% chance to win, to a loss.

That indignity dropped BC nine spots in the national rankings to #112 and to #14 and last in the ACC. I eventually have to put some sort of historic database search into this, but I don't believe the Eagles have ever been that low since I started this project in the early 80s.

As mentioned in the Monday post reviewing the October numbers, BC is currently the most underachieving team in the country, having dropped over 10 points in their power rating since week one, costing it 39 spots in the national rating.

Somehow, with BC at the bottom of the spectrum and Duke the third most overachieving team at a plus 11.66 points, so a swing between the two of 21.7 points since week one, the Eagles are just a 6.1 point underdog.

Vegas has this line at 9 1/2, which seems far more reasonable...so is it a case of the Book still not catching up to these two teams or an overreaction to both in the desert?

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS ARE OUT

The first CFP rankings came out on Tuesday night with Tennessee the number one ranked team in the country, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan and Alabama.

Way too early to get worked up one way or the other with essentially everything still in front of the top teams, however, one of the areas that it is impossible to ignore are the criteria, or should we say, lack of criteria to rank these teams.

Sometimes, it's the eye test, sometimes, it's game control, sometimes it's the resume, but that lack of a consistent approach is hard to figure out.

Here at The Book, we don't have that problem.

We use a straight 50% power rating and 50% strength of record model to determine our rankings, which is what I believe the committee tries to do but struggles with.

That leaves our top 6 as:

1) Ohio State - #1 power ranking, #1 strength of record

2) Georgia - #2 power ranking, #2 strength of record

3) Tennessee - #4 power ranking, #3 strength of record

4) Alabama - #3 power ranking, #8 strength of record

5) Michigan - #5 power ranking, #5 strength of record

6) Clemson - #6 power ranking, #6 strength of record

So what about these "strength of record" ratings?

We measure ours by the CURRENT rank of the teams played. Escalating positive points are given for beating higher ranked teams and decreasing negative points given for losses and all games are counted, not just the notable wins.

That said, Tennessee has the best overall win, but Bama was #2 when they played them and #3 now, they get #3 strength of win points for that now.

So despite all that's made of the Tennessee schedule, they only have two top 25 wins using our poll, against Alabama and #14 LSU.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS TOP 25 WINS LOSSES
1 3 TENNESSEE 8 0 4 3 37 @#14 LSU, #4 ALABAMA NONE
2 1 OHIO ST 8 0 1 1 20 #25 NOTRE DAME, @#13 PENN ST NONE
3 2 GEORGIA 8 0 2 2 43 #9 OREGON NONE
4 6 CLEMSON 8 0 6 6 57 @#22 WAKE FOREST NONE
5 5 MICHIGAN 8 0 5 5 66 #24 MARYLAND, @#12 PENN ST NONE
6 4 ALABAMA 7 1 3 8 17 @#19 TEXAS, #21 MISSISSIPPI ST @#3 TENNESSEE
7 7 TCU 8 0 12 4 41 @#23 OKLAHOMA, #16 OKLAHOMA ST, #15 KANSAS ST NONE
8 9 OREGON 7 1 7 10 33 #13 UCLA @#2 GEORGIA
9 10 USC 7 1 18 9 45 @#20 OREGON ST @#17 UTAH
10 14 LSU 6 2 8 21 25 #8 MISSISSIPPI, #21 MISSISSIPPI ST #3 TENNESSEE, FLORIDA ST
11 8 MISSISSIPPI 8 1 20 7 52 NONE @#14 LSU
12 13 UCLA 7 1 25 12 65 #17 UTAH @#9 OREGON

PICK YOUR OWN MATCHUPS

Last week we posted the first inside look at the Book rating system, which not only gives you the power rating information, but also the ability to choose your own matchup and see the current point spread for the game selected.

Check it out on Google Sheets!

The Book FBS Power Ratings

THIS WEEK's PICKS

Despite all the issues picking moneyline winners, that is where the metrics still lead.

The scary thing here is that Michigan State, Arizona St, Boston College, Miami FL and Tulsa are all on the danger list of teams who have underachieved and been bad bets through the first nine weeks of the season.

Thankfully, at least for this year, this is all play money!


This Week's Picks
My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
MICHIGAN ST 460 ILLINOIS
LSU 400 ALABAMA
NEBRASKA 360 MINNESOTA
ARIZONA ST 300 UCLA
BOSTON COLLEGE 278 DUKE
MIAMI FL 260 FLORIDA ST
TULSA 260 TULANE
TENNESSEE 250 GEORGIA
UTAH (16.5) ARIZONA

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 OHIO ST 8 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0
2 GEORGIA 8 0 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 3 0
3 TENNESSEE 8 0 4 3 4 3 5 2 3 1 3
4 ALABAMA 7 1 3 8 2 4 2 6 6 6 (1)
5 MICHIGAN 8 0 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 0
6 CLEMSON 8 0 6 6 8 6 7 5 5 4 (2)
7 TCU 8 0 12 4 12 7 14 7 7 7 0
8 MISSISSIPPI 8 1 20 7 19 11 13 11 10 11 0
9 OREGON 7 1 7 10 6 8 11 8 8 8 1
10 USC 7 1 18 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 (1)
11 ILLINOIS 7 1 24 11 22 16 24 14 13 16 4
12 PENN ST 6 2 11 17 14 15 12 16 16 15 (1)
13 UCLA 7 1 25 12 20 14 20 10 11 12 5
14 LSU 6 2 8 21 11 13 9 15 17 10 (1)
15 KANSAS ST 6 2 13 18 13 9 16 13 14 13 11
16 NORTH CAROLINA 7 1 31 13 35 23 32 17 15 17 7
17 UTAH 6 2 10 22 7 12 8 12 12 14 2
18 OKLAHOMA ST 6 2 19 23 17 17 26 18 18 18 (6)
19 TEXAS 5 3 9 35 9 18 6 24 (3)
20 OREGON ST 6 2 33 19 23 25 39 24 23 (3)
21 MISSISSIPPI ST 5 3 16 33 21 19 17 1
22 WAKE FOREST 6 2 30 26 32 22 36 20 19 21 (8)
23 OKLAHOMA 5 3 17 38 16 26 25 11
24 MARYLAND 6 2 39 20 43 28 23 1
25 NOTRE DAME 5 3 15 39 18 24 18 11
26 TULANE 7 1 49 14 46 21 44 19 21 19 (2)
27 CINCINNATI 6 2 32 28 34 35 30 (6)
28 UCF 6 2 29 29 30 32 28 25 25 25 5
29 ARKANSAS 5 3 23 37 25 29 38 6
30 SYRACUSE 6 2 45 25 44 20 31 22 22 20 (10)
31 NORTH CAROLINA ST 6 2 46 24 45 27 37 21 20 22 (1)
32 BAYLOR 5 3 14 49 15 31 15 10
33 WASHINGTON 6 2 44 27 28 36 33 (5)
34 LOUISVILLE 5 3 22 44 26 33 29 7
35 BOISE ST 6 2 38 32 37 50 55 3
36 FLORIDA ST 5 3 28 46 33 30 21 4
37 KENTUCKY 5 3 34 40 36 34 40 24 (10)
38 MINNESOTA 5 3 27 51 29 40 19 9
39 PURDUE 5 3 35 43 41 37 35 (7)
40 LIBERTY 7 1 73 15 73 39 66 23 23 (9)
41 SOUTH CAROLINA 5 3 41 47 47 45 51 (12)
42 COASTAL CAROLINA 7 1 83 16 77 46 79 7
43 WISCONSIN 4 4 21 63 24 47 22 (6)
44 EAST CAROLINA 6 3 55 36 54 42 52 7
45 UTSA 6 2 69 30 76 51 68 0
46 TROY 6 2 68 31 68 44 71 (2)
47 FLORIDA 4 4 40 58 39 41 41 (4)
48 IOWA 4 4 42 59 38 53 45 10
49 KANSAS 5 3 59 41 48 38 47 (3)
50 HOUSTON 5 3 54 48 56 49 59 4
51 SOUTH ALABAMA 6 2 67 34 70 52 70 12
52 TEXAS TECH 4 4 37 64 42 43 42 (13)
53 TOLEDO 6 3 65 45 66 70 72 7
54 WASHINGTON ST 4 4 48 60 40 48 56 (4)
55 TEXAS A&M 3 5 26 83 27 54 27 (7)
56 AIR FORCE 5 3 57 55 52 67 61 (3)
57 MISSOURI 4 4 47 65 51 55 54 19
58 DUKE 5 3 63 52 53 60 57 (1)
59 MICHIGAN ST 3 5 36 80 49 65 43 (4)
60 PITTSBURGH 4 4 51 67 61 64 46 (8)
61 SAN JOSE ST 5 2 80 50 72 63 77 5
62 APPALACHIAN ST 5 3 62 62 60 59 58 2
63 IOWA ST 3 5 43 86 31 56 34 (7)
64 SMU 4 4 56 72 55 57 50 16
65 WYOMING 6 3 96 42 90 77 102 6
66 MIAMI FL 4 4 50 78 63 78 53 13
67 JAMES MADISON 5 2 82 53 69 58 67 (2)
68 BYU 4 5 60 71 64 62 64 (6)
69 BUFFALO 5 3 81 57 75 68 86 (2)
70 AUBURN 3 5 53 76 57 61 49 (9)
71 MEMPHIS 4 4 66 70 67 66 60 (3)
72 WESTERN KENTUCKY 5 4 71 66 82 74 62 (13)
73 SOUTHERN MISS 5 3 90 56 86 71 85 13
74 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 5 3 86 61 83 73 83 (4)
75 NORTH TEXAS 5 4 76 69 85 81 82 18
76 WEST VIRGINIA 3 5 52 96 50 72 48 (3)
77 OHIO 5 3 100 54 96 89 108 0
78 FRESNO ST 4 4 70 77 74 76 80 7
79 ARIZONA ST 3 5 58 101 58 79 69 11
80 STANFORD 3 5 64 91 59 69 65 (11)
81 RUTGERS 4 4 89 73 92 92 90 (9)
82 NEBRASKA 3 5 61 102 71 90 74 (4)
83 UAB 4 4 72 89 79 80 63 (8)
84 ARIZONA 3 5 75 88 65 84 81 (1)
85 SAN DIEGO ST 4 4 91 75 89 95 97 (3)
86 INDIANA 3 5 78 90 81 82 78 2
87 LOUISIANA 4 4 84 84 78 87 84 (13)
88 CALIFORNIA 3 5 74 97 62 86 73 (4)
89 VIRGINIA 3 5 79 100 80 85 75 (2)
90 MARSHALL 4 4 88 93 84 75 76 (9)
91 EASTERN MICHIGAN 5 4 109 68 105 103 114 (2)
92 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 4 5 94 92 91 96 88 13
93 GEORGIA TECH 3 5 95 94 94 88 93 (2)
94 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4 4 104 82 107 97 95 10
95 UNLV 4 4 108 79 103 99 104 0
96 VANDERBILT 3 5 101 87 100 83 94 1
97 ARMY 3 4 85 109 98 98 87 2
98 TULSA 3 5 87 107 88 100 89 (4)
99 BOWLING GREEN 4 4 114 74 116 101 121 (3)
100 GEORGIA ST 3 5 93 104 95 91 92 9
101 BALL ST 4 4 112 85 110 107 119 0
102 RICE 4 4 115 81 115 102 112 (10)
103 NAVY 3 5 97 106 93 94 96 5
104 MIAMI OH 4 5 105 103 102 109 110 7
105 UTAH ST 3 5 102 105 106 106 113 (3)
106 OLD DOMINION 3 5 106 108 104 93 98 (8)
107 VIRGINIA TECH 2 6 77 116 87 110 91 (1)
108 KENT ST 3 5 107 110 101 105 101 (1)
109 CONNECTICUT 4 5 117 98 117 104 122 5
110 UTEP 4 5 118 95 121 112 116 (10)
111 WESTERN MICHIGAN 3 5 110 111 109 115 115 (1)
112 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 6 99 114 108 111 100 (9)
113 TEXAS ST 3 5 116 113 118 108 106 0
114 NORTHWESTERN 1 7 92 125 97 114 99 (2)
115 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 2 6 98 123 99 113 107 1
116 FLORIDA INTL 4 4 130 99 129 122 130 8
117 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 2 6 111 120 113 118 111 2
118 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 7 103 128 112 116 105 0
119 COLORADO 1 7 113 122 111 120 117 2
120 NEW MEXICO ST 3 5 128 112 128 128 129 7
121 LA MONROE 2 6 122 117 123 119 118 1
122 COLORADO ST 2 6 125 115 124 124 126 (5)
123 LOUISIANA TECH 2 6 121 118 120 121 109 (8)
124 ARKANSAS ST 2 7 119 124 114 117 103 (4)
125 TEMPLE 2 6 123 121 122 127 123 (2)
126 NEVADA 2 7 120 127 119 126 120 (1)
127 NEW MEXICO 2 6 127 119 126 125 125 1
128 CHARLOTTE 2 7 126 126 127 123 124 1
129 HAWAII 2 7 124 129 125 129 127 (3)
130 AKRON 1 8 129 131 130 130 128 0
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 7 131 130 131 131 131 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 8 0 6 6 8 6 7 5 5 4 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA 7 1 31 13 35 23 32 17 15 17 2
3 WAKE FOREST 6 2 30 26 32 22 36 20 19 21 (1)
4 SYRACUSE 6 2 45 25 44 20 31 22 22 20 (1)
5 NORTH CAROLINA ST 6 2 46 24 45 27 37 21 20 22 0
6 LOUISVILLE 5 3 22 44 26 33 29 1
7 FLORIDA ST 5 3 28 46 33 30 21 (1)
8 DUKE 5 3 63 52 53 60 57 1
9 PITTSBURGH 4 4 51 67 61 64 46 (1)
10 MIAMI FL 4 4 50 78 63 78 53 0
11 VIRGINIA 3 5 79 100 80 85 75 0
12 GEORGIA TECH 3 5 95 94 94 88 93 0
13 VIRGINIA TECH 2 6 77 116 87 110 91 1
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 6 99 114 108 111 100 (1)
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Kent St 4.8 Ball St 60.1%
Buffalo 2.4 at Ohio 55.0%
at Northern Illinois 5.9 Central Michigan 62.4%
at Bowling Green 1.1 Western Michigan 52.3%
Appalachian St 2.8 at Coastal Carolina 55.9%
at Connecticut 17.2 Massachusetts 86.1%
Duke 6.1 at Boston College 62.8%
Oregon St 0.3 at Washington 50.6%
at Arkansas 18.7 Liberty 89.3%
at Georgia 6.5 Tennessee 63.7%
Alabama 10.3 at LSU 71.6%
at Mississippi St 14.4 Auburn 80.2%
Kentucky 1.7 at Missouri 53.6%
at Texas A&M 7.5 Florida 65.8%
South Carolina 15.3 at Vanderbilt 82.1%
at Utah 21.8 Arizona 95.8%
UCLA 7.8 at Arizona St 66.4%
at USC 18.9 California 89.7%
Oregon 27.8 at Colorado > 99.99%
Washington St 2.2 at Stanford 54.6%
at Oklahoma 2.9 Baylor 56.1%
at Iowa St 7.1 West Virginia 64.9%
Oklahoma St 9.7 at Kansas 70.4%
at Kansas St 0.8 Texas 51.7%
at TCU 9.2 Texas Tech 69.3%
at Illinois 6.4 Michigan St 63.4%
Minnesota 8.6 at Nebraska 68.1%
Ohio St 38.7 at Northwestern > 99.99%
at Purdue 3.7 Iowa 57.8%
at Wisconsin 7.3 Maryland 65.3%
Penn St 16.9 at Indiana 85.5%
Michigan 27.6 at Rutgers > 99.99%
at Louisville 19.2 James Madison 90.3%
Florida St 4.5 at Miami FL 59.5%
Wake Forest 0.9 at North Carolina St 51.9%
Syracuse 1.2 at Pittsburgh 52.5%
North Carolina 10.4 at Virginia 71.8%
at Virginia Tech 5.8 Georgia Tech 62.2%
at Boise St 9.3 BYU 69.5%
at San Jose St 17.9 Colorado St 87.6%
at Fresno St 18.8 Hawaii 89.5%
South Florida 5.6 at Temple 61.8%
Tulane 6.7 at Tulsa 64.1%
at Cincinnati 20.9 Navy 93.9%
UCF 8.3 at Memphis 67.4%
at SMU 2.9 Houston 56.1%
South Alabama 1.1 at Georgia Southern 52.3%
Marshall 3.4 at Old Dominion 57%
Troy 1.1 at Louisiana 52%
Texas St 1.7 at LA Monroe 54%
at Southern Miss 2.8 Georgia St 56%
Air Force 5.0 at Army 61%
Western Kentucky 14.3 at Charlotte 80%
Middle Tennessee 4.5 at Louisiana Tech 59%
at Utah St 14.3 New Mexico 80%
at UAB 2.0 UTSA 54%
at North Texas 23.2 Florida Intl 99%
at San Diego St 6.7 UNLV 64%
at Rice 3.6 UTEP 58%
Clemson 1.2 at Notre Dame 53%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 4 2 0.667
Total 4 3 0.571
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 1 5 0.167
Total 1 6 0.143
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 21 24 0.467
Previous 189 227 0.45433
Total 210 251 0.45553
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 31 15 0.674
Previous 308 117 0.725
Total 339 132 0.71975
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.1277 47
Previous 12.2916 427
Total 12.3745 474
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 295.6774 47
Previous 234.9654 375
Total 241.7272 422
Bias Avg Games
Week 0.2085 47
Previous (0.1660) 427
Total (0.1289) 474
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Pct Correct 5 53
vs Spread 41 53
Absolute Error 7 53
Mean Square Error 7 53
Bias 7 53
Total 67
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St 1-0 0-1
vs Louisville 0-1 1-0
vs Clemson 1-0 0-1
at Wake Forest 1-0 0-1
at Connecticut 0-1 0-1
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville (1.00) 1.00
vs Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
at Wake Forest 1.00 (1.10)
at Connecticut (3.35) (1.10)
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 0.22 (4.50)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville 5.50 1.00
vs Clemson (1.00) (1.10)
at Wake Forest n/a (1.10)
at Connecticut (3.35) (1.10)
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 7.00 (4.50)
Money Line Picks Units
Week (0.70)
Previous (26.54)
Total (27.24)
Spread Picks Units
Week (1.20)
Previous 4.80
Total 3.60
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4 (2.30) 1 3
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 0.90 2 1
Week 7 2.00 2 0
Week 8 1.90 3 1
Week 9 (1.20) 1 2
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 3.60 19 14
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4 (1.00) 0 1
Week 5 (22.00) 3 1
Week 6 0.10 1 1
Week 7 (1.33) 2 2
Week 8 (1.50) 1 4
Week 9 (0.70) 1 2
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (27.24) 13 18
New Book
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 19 27 0.413
Previous 205 215 0.488
Total 224 242 0.48069
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 34 13 0.723
Previous 309 118 0.724
Total 343 131 0.72363
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.6511 47
Previous 12.5785 427
Total 12.6848 474
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 302.1502 47
Previous 244.4739 375
Total 250.8976 422
Bias Avg Games
Week 1.1277 47
Previous 0.1504 427
Total 0.2473 474
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Pct Correct 5 53
vs Spread 24 53
Absolute Error 20 53
Mean Square Error 19 53
Bias 15 53
Total Rank 83