Despite pain not seen in these parts since in nearly half a century after the UConn loss, we are back it, with a positive attitude, the Duke game to "look forward to" and the CFP to talk about...so let's get to it.
BOSTON COLLEGE
A truly painful week for our Eagles. The loss to UConn, totally unforeseen at the season's inception, where BC was a 21.4 point favorite with a 95% chance to win, dropped to a 9.1 point favorite with a 69% chance to win, to a loss.
That indignity dropped BC nine spots in the national rankings to #112 and to #14 and last in the ACC. I eventually have to put some sort of historic database search into this, but I don't believe the Eagles have ever been that low since I started this project in the early 80s.
As mentioned in the Monday post reviewing the October numbers, BC is currently the most underachieving team in the country, having dropped over 10 points in their power rating since week one, costing it 39 spots in the national rating.
Somehow, with BC at the bottom of the spectrum and Duke the third most overachieving team at a plus 11.66 points, so a swing between the two of 21.7 points since week one, the Eagles are just a 6.1 point underdog.
Vegas has this line at 9 1/2, which seems far more reasonable...so is it a case of the Book still not catching up to these two teams or an overreaction to both in the desert?
THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS ARE OUT
The first CFP rankings came out on Tuesday night with Tennessee the number one ranked team in the country, followed by Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan and Alabama.
Way too early to get worked up one way or the other with essentially everything still in front of the top teams, however, one of the areas that it is impossible to ignore are the criteria, or should we say, lack of criteria to rank these teams.
Sometimes, it's the eye test, sometimes, it's game control, sometimes it's the resume, but that lack of a consistent approach is hard to figure out.
Here at The Book, we don't have that problem.
We use a straight 50% power rating and 50% strength of record model to determine our rankings, which is what I believe the committee tries to do but struggles with.
That leaves our top 6 as:
1) Ohio State - #1 power ranking, #1 strength of record
2) Georgia - #2 power ranking, #2 strength of record
3) Tennessee - #4 power ranking, #3 strength of record
4) Alabama - #3 power ranking, #8 strength of record
5) Michigan - #5 power ranking, #5 strength of record
6) Clemson - #6 power ranking, #6 strength of record
So what about these "strength of record" ratings?
We measure ours by the CURRENT rank of the teams played. Escalating positive points are given for beating higher ranked teams and decreasing negative points given for losses and all games are counted, not just the notable wins.
That said, Tennessee has the best overall win, but Bama was #2 when they played them and #3 now, they get #3 strength of win points for that now.
So despite all that's made of the Tennessee schedule, they only have two top 25 wins using our poll, against Alabama and #14 LSU.
CFP Rank |
Book Rank |
Team | Won | Lost | Power | SOR | SOS | TOP 25 WINS | LOSSES |
1 | 3 | TENNESSEE | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 37 | @#14 LSU, #4 ALABAMA | NONE |
2 | 1 | OHIO ST | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | #25 NOTRE DAME, @#13 PENN ST | NONE |
3 | 2 | GEORGIA | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 43 | #9 OREGON | NONE |
4 | 6 | CLEMSON | 8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 57 | @#22 WAKE FOREST | NONE |
5 | 5 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 66 | #24 MARYLAND, @#12 PENN ST | NONE |
6 | 4 | ALABAMA | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 17 | @#19 TEXAS, #21 MISSISSIPPI ST | @#3 TENNESSEE |
7 | 7 | TCU | 8 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 41 | @#23 OKLAHOMA, #16 OKLAHOMA ST, #15 KANSAS ST | NONE |
8 | 9 | OREGON | 7 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 33 | #13 UCLA | @#2 GEORGIA |
9 | 10 | USC | 7 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 45 | @#20 OREGON ST | @#17 UTAH |
10 | 14 | LSU | 6 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 25 | #8 MISSISSIPPI, #21 MISSISSIPPI ST | #3 TENNESSEE, FLORIDA ST |
11 | 8 | MISSISSIPPI | 8 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 52 | NONE | @#14 LSU |
12 | 13 | UCLA | 7 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 65 | #17 UTAH | @#9 OREGON |
PICK YOUR OWN MATCHUPS
Last week we posted the first inside look at the Book rating system, which not only gives you the power rating information, but also the ability to choose your own matchup and see the current point spread for the game selected.
Check it out on Google Sheets!
THIS WEEK's PICKS
Despite all the issues picking moneyline winners, that is where the metrics still lead.
The scary thing here is that Michigan State, Arizona St, Boston College, Miami FL and Tulsa are all on the danger list of teams who have underachieved and been bad bets through the first nine weeks of the season.
Thankfully, at least for this year, this is all play money!
This Week's Picks | ||
My Pick | ML or Spread |
Opponent |
MICHIGAN ST | 460 | ILLINOIS |
LSU | 400 | ALABAMA |
NEBRASKA | 360 | MINNESOTA |
ARIZONA ST | 300 | UCLA |
BOSTON COLLEGE | 278 | DUKE |
MIAMI FL | 260 | FLORIDA ST |
TULSA | 260 | TULANE |
TENNESSEE | 250 | GEORGIA |
UTAH | (16.5) | ARIZONA |
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP | CHANGE FROM LAST WK |
1 | OHIO ST | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
2 | GEORGIA | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
3 | TENNESSEE | 8 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
4 | ALABAMA | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | (1) |
5 | MICHIGAN | 8 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
6 | CLEMSON | 8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | (2) |
7 | TCU | 8 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 0 |
8 | MISSISSIPPI | 8 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 19 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 0 |
9 | OREGON | 7 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 |
10 | USC | 7 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | (1) |
11 | ILLINOIS | 7 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 4 |
12 | PENN ST | 6 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 15 | (1) |
13 | UCLA | 7 | 1 | 25 | 12 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 5 |
14 | LSU | 6 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 10 | (1) |
15 | KANSAS ST | 6 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
16 | NORTH CAROLINA | 7 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 35 | 23 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 7 |
17 | UTAH | 6 | 2 | 10 | 22 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 2 |
18 | OKLAHOMA ST | 6 | 2 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 17 | 26 | 18 | 18 | 18 | (6) |
19 | TEXAS | 5 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 9 | 18 | 6 | 24 | (3) | ||
20 | OREGON ST | 6 | 2 | 33 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 39 | 24 | 23 | (3) | |
21 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 5 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 21 | 19 | 17 | 1 | |||
22 | WAKE FOREST | 6 | 2 | 30 | 26 | 32 | 22 | 36 | 20 | 19 | 21 | (8) |
23 | OKLAHOMA | 5 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 16 | 26 | 25 | 11 | |||
24 | MARYLAND | 6 | 2 | 39 | 20 | 43 | 28 | 23 | 1 | |||
25 | NOTRE DAME | 5 | 3 | 15 | 39 | 18 | 24 | 18 | 11 | |||
26 | TULANE | 7 | 1 | 49 | 14 | 46 | 21 | 44 | 19 | 21 | 19 | (2) |
27 | CINCINNATI | 6 | 2 | 32 | 28 | 34 | 35 | 30 | (6) | |||
28 | UCF | 6 | 2 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 5 |
29 | ARKANSAS | 5 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 25 | 29 | 38 | 6 | |||
30 | SYRACUSE | 6 | 2 | 45 | 25 | 44 | 20 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 20 | (10) |
31 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 6 | 2 | 46 | 24 | 45 | 27 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 22 | (1) |
32 | BAYLOR | 5 | 3 | 14 | 49 | 15 | 31 | 15 | 10 | |||
33 | WASHINGTON | 6 | 2 | 44 | 27 | 28 | 36 | 33 | (5) | |||
34 | LOUISVILLE | 5 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 26 | 33 | 29 | 7 | |||
35 | BOISE ST | 6 | 2 | 38 | 32 | 37 | 50 | 55 | 3 | |||
36 | FLORIDA ST | 5 | 3 | 28 | 46 | 33 | 30 | 21 | 4 | |||
37 | KENTUCKY | 5 | 3 | 34 | 40 | 36 | 34 | 40 | 24 | (10) | ||
38 | MINNESOTA | 5 | 3 | 27 | 51 | 29 | 40 | 19 | 9 | |||
39 | PURDUE | 5 | 3 | 35 | 43 | 41 | 37 | 35 | (7) | |||
40 | LIBERTY | 7 | 1 | 73 | 15 | 73 | 39 | 66 | 23 | 23 | (9) | |
41 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 5 | 3 | 41 | 47 | 47 | 45 | 51 | (12) | |||
42 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 7 | 1 | 83 | 16 | 77 | 46 | 79 | 7 | |||
43 | WISCONSIN | 4 | 4 | 21 | 63 | 24 | 47 | 22 | (6) | |||
44 | EAST CAROLINA | 6 | 3 | 55 | 36 | 54 | 42 | 52 | 7 | |||
45 | UTSA | 6 | 2 | 69 | 30 | 76 | 51 | 68 | 0 | |||
46 | TROY | 6 | 2 | 68 | 31 | 68 | 44 | 71 | (2) | |||
47 | FLORIDA | 4 | 4 | 40 | 58 | 39 | 41 | 41 | (4) | |||
48 | IOWA | 4 | 4 | 42 | 59 | 38 | 53 | 45 | 10 | |||
49 | KANSAS | 5 | 3 | 59 | 41 | 48 | 38 | 47 | (3) | |||
50 | HOUSTON | 5 | 3 | 54 | 48 | 56 | 49 | 59 | 4 | |||
51 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 6 | 2 | 67 | 34 | 70 | 52 | 70 | 12 | |||
52 | TEXAS TECH | 4 | 4 | 37 | 64 | 42 | 43 | 42 | (13) | |||
53 | TOLEDO | 6 | 3 | 65 | 45 | 66 | 70 | 72 | 7 | |||
54 | WASHINGTON ST | 4 | 4 | 48 | 60 | 40 | 48 | 56 | (4) | |||
55 | TEXAS A&M | 3 | 5 | 26 | 83 | 27 | 54 | 27 | (7) | |||
56 | AIR FORCE | 5 | 3 | 57 | 55 | 52 | 67 | 61 | (3) | |||
57 | MISSOURI | 4 | 4 | 47 | 65 | 51 | 55 | 54 | 19 | |||
58 | DUKE | 5 | 3 | 63 | 52 | 53 | 60 | 57 | (1) | |||
59 | MICHIGAN ST | 3 | 5 | 36 | 80 | 49 | 65 | 43 | (4) | |||
60 | PITTSBURGH | 4 | 4 | 51 | 67 | 61 | 64 | 46 | (8) | |||
61 | SAN JOSE ST | 5 | 2 | 80 | 50 | 72 | 63 | 77 | 5 | |||
62 | APPALACHIAN ST | 5 | 3 | 62 | 62 | 60 | 59 | 58 | 2 | |||
63 | IOWA ST | 3 | 5 | 43 | 86 | 31 | 56 | 34 | (7) | |||
64 | SMU | 4 | 4 | 56 | 72 | 55 | 57 | 50 | 16 | |||
65 | WYOMING | 6 | 3 | 96 | 42 | 90 | 77 | 102 | 6 | |||
66 | MIAMI FL | 4 | 4 | 50 | 78 | 63 | 78 | 53 | 13 | |||
67 | JAMES MADISON | 5 | 2 | 82 | 53 | 69 | 58 | 67 | (2) | |||
68 | BYU | 4 | 5 | 60 | 71 | 64 | 62 | 64 | (6) | |||
69 | BUFFALO | 5 | 3 | 81 | 57 | 75 | 68 | 86 | (2) | |||
70 | AUBURN | 3 | 5 | 53 | 76 | 57 | 61 | 49 | (9) | |||
71 | MEMPHIS | 4 | 4 | 66 | 70 | 67 | 66 | 60 | (3) | |||
72 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 5 | 4 | 71 | 66 | 82 | 74 | 62 | (13) | |||
73 | SOUTHERN MISS | 5 | 3 | 90 | 56 | 86 | 71 | 85 | 13 | |||
74 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 5 | 3 | 86 | 61 | 83 | 73 | 83 | (4) | |||
75 | NORTH TEXAS | 5 | 4 | 76 | 69 | 85 | 81 | 82 | 18 | |||
76 | WEST VIRGINIA | 3 | 5 | 52 | 96 | 50 | 72 | 48 | (3) | |||
77 | OHIO | 5 | 3 | 100 | 54 | 96 | 89 | 108 | 0 | |||
78 | FRESNO ST | 4 | 4 | 70 | 77 | 74 | 76 | 80 | 7 | |||
79 | ARIZONA ST | 3 | 5 | 58 | 101 | 58 | 79 | 69 | 11 | |||
80 | STANFORD | 3 | 5 | 64 | 91 | 59 | 69 | 65 | (11) | |||
81 | RUTGERS | 4 | 4 | 89 | 73 | 92 | 92 | 90 | (9) | |||
82 | NEBRASKA | 3 | 5 | 61 | 102 | 71 | 90 | 74 | (4) | |||
83 | UAB | 4 | 4 | 72 | 89 | 79 | 80 | 63 | (8) | |||
84 | ARIZONA | 3 | 5 | 75 | 88 | 65 | 84 | 81 | (1) | |||
85 | SAN DIEGO ST | 4 | 4 | 91 | 75 | 89 | 95 | 97 | (3) | |||
86 | INDIANA | 3 | 5 | 78 | 90 | 81 | 82 | 78 | 2 | |||
87 | LOUISIANA | 4 | 4 | 84 | 84 | 78 | 87 | 84 | (13) | |||
88 | CALIFORNIA | 3 | 5 | 74 | 97 | 62 | 86 | 73 | (4) | |||
89 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 5 | 79 | 100 | 80 | 85 | 75 | (2) | |||
90 | MARSHALL | 4 | 4 | 88 | 93 | 84 | 75 | 76 | (9) | |||
91 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 5 | 4 | 109 | 68 | 105 | 103 | 114 | (2) | |||
92 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 4 | 5 | 94 | 92 | 91 | 96 | 88 | 13 | |||
93 | GEORGIA TECH | 3 | 5 | 95 | 94 | 94 | 88 | 93 | (2) | |||
94 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 4 | 4 | 104 | 82 | 107 | 97 | 95 | 10 | |||
95 | UNLV | 4 | 4 | 108 | 79 | 103 | 99 | 104 | 0 | |||
96 | VANDERBILT | 3 | 5 | 101 | 87 | 100 | 83 | 94 | 1 | |||
97 | ARMY | 3 | 4 | 85 | 109 | 98 | 98 | 87 | 2 | |||
98 | TULSA | 3 | 5 | 87 | 107 | 88 | 100 | 89 | (4) | |||
99 | BOWLING GREEN | 4 | 4 | 114 | 74 | 116 | 101 | 121 | (3) | |||
100 | GEORGIA ST | 3 | 5 | 93 | 104 | 95 | 91 | 92 | 9 | |||
101 | BALL ST | 4 | 4 | 112 | 85 | 110 | 107 | 119 | 0 | |||
102 | RICE | 4 | 4 | 115 | 81 | 115 | 102 | 112 | (10) | |||
103 | NAVY | 3 | 5 | 97 | 106 | 93 | 94 | 96 | 5 | |||
104 | MIAMI OH | 4 | 5 | 105 | 103 | 102 | 109 | 110 | 7 | |||
105 | UTAH ST | 3 | 5 | 102 | 105 | 106 | 106 | 113 | (3) | |||
106 | OLD DOMINION | 3 | 5 | 106 | 108 | 104 | 93 | 98 | (8) | |||
107 | VIRGINIA TECH | 2 | 6 | 77 | 116 | 87 | 110 | 91 | (1) | |||
108 | KENT ST | 3 | 5 | 107 | 110 | 101 | 105 | 101 | (1) | |||
109 | CONNECTICUT | 4 | 5 | 117 | 98 | 117 | 104 | 122 | 5 | |||
110 | UTEP | 4 | 5 | 118 | 95 | 121 | 112 | 116 | (10) | |||
111 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 3 | 5 | 110 | 111 | 109 | 115 | 115 | (1) | |||
112 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 2 | 6 | 99 | 114 | 108 | 111 | 100 | (9) | |||
113 | TEXAS ST | 3 | 5 | 116 | 113 | 118 | 108 | 106 | 0 | |||
114 | NORTHWESTERN | 1 | 7 | 92 | 125 | 97 | 114 | 99 | (2) | |||
115 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 2 | 6 | 98 | 123 | 99 | 113 | 107 | 1 | |||
116 | FLORIDA INTL | 4 | 4 | 130 | 99 | 129 | 122 | 130 | 8 | |||
117 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 2 | 6 | 111 | 120 | 113 | 118 | 111 | 2 | |||
118 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 1 | 7 | 103 | 128 | 112 | 116 | 105 | 0 | |||
119 | COLORADO | 1 | 7 | 113 | 122 | 111 | 120 | 117 | 2 | |||
120 | NEW MEXICO ST | 3 | 5 | 128 | 112 | 128 | 128 | 129 | 7 | |||
121 | LA MONROE | 2 | 6 | 122 | 117 | 123 | 119 | 118 | 1 | |||
122 | COLORADO ST | 2 | 6 | 125 | 115 | 124 | 124 | 126 | (5) | |||
123 | LOUISIANA TECH | 2 | 6 | 121 | 118 | 120 | 121 | 109 | (8) | |||
124 | ARKANSAS ST | 2 | 7 | 119 | 124 | 114 | 117 | 103 | (4) | |||
125 | TEMPLE | 2 | 6 | 123 | 121 | 122 | 127 | 123 | (2) | |||
126 | NEVADA | 2 | 7 | 120 | 127 | 119 | 126 | 120 | (1) | |||
127 | NEW MEXICO | 2 | 6 | 127 | 119 | 126 | 125 | 125 | 1 | |||
128 | CHARLOTTE | 2 | 7 | 126 | 126 | 127 | 123 | 124 | 1 | |||
129 | HAWAII | 2 | 7 | 124 | 129 | 125 | 129 | 127 | (3) | |||
130 | AKRON | 1 | 8 | 129 | 131 | 130 | 130 | 128 | 0 | |||
131 | MASSACHUSETTS | 1 | 7 | 131 | 130 | 131 | 131 | 131 | 0 | |||
ACC | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP | CHANGE FROM LAST WK |
1 | CLEMSON | 8 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
2 | NORTH CAROLINA | 7 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 35 | 23 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 2 |
3 | WAKE FOREST | 6 | 2 | 30 | 26 | 32 | 22 | 36 | 20 | 19 | 21 | (1) |
4 | SYRACUSE | 6 | 2 | 45 | 25 | 44 | 20 | 31 | 22 | 22 | 20 | (1) |
5 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 6 | 2 | 46 | 24 | 45 | 27 | 37 | 21 | 20 | 22 | 0 |
6 | LOUISVILLE | 5 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 26 | 33 | 29 | 1 | |||
7 | FLORIDA ST | 5 | 3 | 28 | 46 | 33 | 30 | 21 | (1) | |||
8 | DUKE | 5 | 3 | 63 | 52 | 53 | 60 | 57 | 1 | |||
9 | PITTSBURGH | 4 | 4 | 51 | 67 | 61 | 64 | 46 | (1) | |||
10 | MIAMI FL | 4 | 4 | 50 | 78 | 63 | 78 | 53 | 0 | |||
11 | VIRGINIA | 3 | 5 | 79 | 100 | 80 | 85 | 75 | 0 | |||
12 | GEORGIA TECH | 3 | 5 | 95 | 94 | 94 | 88 | 93 | 0 | |||
13 | VIRGINIA TECH | 2 | 6 | 77 | 116 | 87 | 110 | 91 | 1 | |||
14 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 2 | 6 | 99 | 114 | 108 | 111 | 100 | (1) |
FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | WIN PROBABILITY |
at Kent St | 4.8 | Ball St | 60.1% |
Buffalo | 2.4 | at Ohio | 55.0% |
at Northern Illinois | 5.9 | Central Michigan | 62.4% |
at Bowling Green | 1.1 | Western Michigan | 52.3% |
Appalachian St | 2.8 | at Coastal Carolina | 55.9% |
at Connecticut | 17.2 | Massachusetts | 86.1% |
Duke | 6.1 | at Boston College | 62.8% |
Oregon St | 0.3 | at Washington | 50.6% |
at Arkansas | 18.7 | Liberty | 89.3% |
at Georgia | 6.5 | Tennessee | 63.7% |
Alabama | 10.3 | at LSU | 71.6% |
at Mississippi St | 14.4 | Auburn | 80.2% |
Kentucky | 1.7 | at Missouri | 53.6% |
at Texas A&M | 7.5 | Florida | 65.8% |
South Carolina | 15.3 | at Vanderbilt | 82.1% |
at Utah | 21.8 | Arizona | 95.8% |
UCLA | 7.8 | at Arizona St | 66.4% |
at USC | 18.9 | California | 89.7% |
Oregon | 27.8 | at Colorado | > 99.99% |
Washington St | 2.2 | at Stanford | 54.6% |
at Oklahoma | 2.9 | Baylor | 56.1% |
at Iowa St | 7.1 | West Virginia | 64.9% |
Oklahoma St | 9.7 | at Kansas | 70.4% |
at Kansas St | 0.8 | Texas | 51.7% |
at TCU | 9.2 | Texas Tech | 69.3% |
at Illinois | 6.4 | Michigan St | 63.4% |
Minnesota | 8.6 | at Nebraska | 68.1% |
Ohio St | 38.7 | at Northwestern | > 99.99% |
at Purdue | 3.7 | Iowa | 57.8% |
at Wisconsin | 7.3 | Maryland | 65.3% |
Penn St | 16.9 | at Indiana | 85.5% |
Michigan | 27.6 | at Rutgers | > 99.99% |
at Louisville | 19.2 | James Madison | 90.3% |
Florida St | 4.5 | at Miami FL | 59.5% |
Wake Forest | 0.9 | at North Carolina St | 51.9% |
Syracuse | 1.2 | at Pittsburgh | 52.5% |
North Carolina | 10.4 | at Virginia | 71.8% |
at Virginia Tech | 5.8 | Georgia Tech | 62.2% |
at Boise St | 9.3 | BYU | 69.5% |
at San Jose St | 17.9 | Colorado St | 87.6% |
at Fresno St | 18.8 | Hawaii | 89.5% |
South Florida | 5.6 | at Temple | 61.8% |
Tulane | 6.7 | at Tulsa | 64.1% |
at Cincinnati | 20.9 | Navy | 93.9% |
UCF | 8.3 | at Memphis | 67.4% |
at SMU | 2.9 | Houston | 56.1% |
South Alabama | 1.1 | at Georgia Southern | 52.3% |
Marshall | 3.4 | at Old Dominion | 57% |
Troy | 1.1 | at Louisiana | 52% |
Texas St | 1.7 | at LA Monroe | 54% |
at Southern Miss | 2.8 | Georgia St | 56% |
Air Force | 5.0 | at Army | 61% |
Western Kentucky | 14.3 | at Charlotte | 80% |
Middle Tennessee | 4.5 | at Louisiana Tech | 59% |
at Utah St | 14.3 | New Mexico | 80% |
at UAB | 2.0 | UTSA | 54% |
at North Texas | 23.2 | Florida Intl | 99% |
at San Diego St | 6.7 | UNLV | 64% |
at Rice | 3.6 | UTEP | 58% |
Clemson | 1.2 | at Notre Dame | 53% |
BC Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
Previous | 4 | 2 | 0.667 |
Total | 4 | 3 | 0.571 |
BC vs Spread | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
Previous | 1 | 5 | 0.167 |
Total | 1 | 6 | 0.143 |
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Pct. |
Week | 21 | 24 | 0.467 |
Previous | 189 | 227 | 0.45433 |
Total | 210 | 251 | 0.45553 |
Pct Correct | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 31 | 15 | 0.674 |
Previous | 308 | 117 | 0.725 |
Total | 339 | 132 | 0.71975 |
Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 13.1277 | 47 | |
Previous | 12.2916 | 427 | |
Total | 12.3745 | 474 | |
Mean Square Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 295.6774 | 47 | |
Previous | 234.9654 | 375 | |
Total | 241.7272 | 422 | |
Bias | Avg | Games | |
Week | 0.2085 | 47 | |
Previous | (0.1660) | 427 | |
Total | (0.1289) | 474 | |
Prediction Tracker | Rank | # of Polls | |
Pct Correct | 5 | 53 | |
vs Spread | 41 | 53 | |
Absolute Error | 7 | 53 | |
Mean Square Error | 7 | 53 | |
Bias | 7 | 53 | |
Total | 67 | ||
BC Opponents | Winners | spread | |
vs Rutgers | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
at Virginia Tech | 1-0 | 0-1 | |
at Florida St | 1-0 | 0-1 | |
vs Louisville | 0-1 | 1-0 | |
vs Clemson | 1-0 | 0-1 | |
at Wake Forest | 1-0 | 0-1 | |
at Connecticut | 0-1 | 0-1 | |
vs Duke | |||
at North Carolina St | |||
at Notre Dame | |||
vs Syracuse | |||
BC Opponents | Winners | Spread | |
vs Rutgers | (2.78) | (1.10) | |
at Virginia Tech | 1.00 | (1.10) | |
at Florida St | 1.00 | (1.10) | |
vs Louisville | (1.00) | 1.00 | |
vs Clemson | 1.00 | (1.10) | |
at Wake Forest | 1.00 | (1.10) | |
at Connecticut | (3.35) | (1.10) | |
vs Duke | |||
at North Carolina St | |||
at Notre Dame | |||
vs Syracuse | |||
Profit/Loss | 0.22 | (4.50) | |
BC Opponents | ML Edge | Spread Edge | |
vs Rutgers | 2.50 | (1.10) | |
at Virginia Tech | (1.00) | (1.10) | |
at Florida St | 1.00 | (1.10) | |
vs Louisville | 5.50 | 1.00 | |
vs Clemson | (1.00) | (1.10) | |
at Wake Forest | n/a | (1.10) | |
at Connecticut | (3.35) | (1.10) | |
vs Duke | |||
at North Carolina St | |||
at Notre Dame | |||
vs Syracuse | |||
Profit/Loss | 7.00 | (4.50) | |
Money Line Picks | Units | ||
Week | (0.70) | ||
Previous | (26.54) | ||
Total | (27.24) | ||
Spread Picks | Units | ||
Week | (1.20) | ||
Previous | 4.80 | ||
Total | 3.60 | ||
Spread By Week | Profit | Win | Loss |
Week 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 1 | 0.80 | 3 | 2 |
Week 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 1 |
Week 3 | (1.40) | 3 | 4 |
Week 4 | (2.30) | 1 | 3 |
Week 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 6 | 0.90 | 2 | 1 |
Week 7 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
Week 8 | 1.90 | 3 | 1 |
Week 9 | (1.20) | 1 | 2 |
Week 10 | |||
Week 11 | |||
Week 12 | |||
Week 13 | |||
Week 14 | |||
Week 15 | |||
Bowls | |||
CFP | |||
Total | 3.60 | 19 | 14 |
Money Line by Week | Profit | Win | Loss |
Week 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 1 | (3.00) | 0 | 3 |
Week 2 | 3.54 | 3 | 1 |
Week 3 | (5.35) | 1 | 3 |
Week 4 | (1.00) | 0 | 1 |
Week 5 | (22.00) | 3 | 1 |
Week 6 | 0.10 | 1 | 1 |
Week 7 | (1.33) | 2 | 2 |
Week 8 | (1.50) | 1 | 4 |
Week 9 | (0.70) | 1 | 2 |
Week 10 | |||
Week 11 | |||
Week 12 | |||
Week 13 | |||
Week 14 | |||
Week 15 | |||
Bowls | |||
CFP | |||
Total | (27.24) | 13 | 18 |
New Book | |||
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Pct. |
Week | 19 | 27 | 0.413 |
Previous | 205 | 215 | 0.488 |
Total | 224 | 242 | 0.48069 |
Pct Correct | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 34 | 13 | 0.723 |
Previous | 309 | 118 | 0.724 |
Total | 343 | 131 | 0.72363 |
Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 13.6511 | 47 | |
Previous | 12.5785 | 427 | |
Total | 12.6848 | 474 | |
Mean Square Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 302.1502 | 47 | |
Previous | 244.4739 | 375 | |
Total | 250.8976 | 422 | |
Bias | Avg | Games | |
Week | 1.1277 | 47 | |
Previous | 0.1504 | 427 | |
Total | 0.2473 | 474 | |
Prediction Tracker | Rank | # of Polls | |
Pct Correct | 5 | 53 | |
vs Spread | 24 | 53 | |
Absolute Error | 20 | 53 | |
Mean Square Error | 19 | 53 | |
Bias | 15 | 53 | |
Total Rank | 83 |
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