FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 12 - November 19, 2022

We've reached the penultimate week of the 2022 regular season and for the first time in a bit, have a happy story with BC's win over NC State in our minds...so let's get into it!

BOSTON COLLEGE

Boston College entered the NC State game as a Book 19.9 point underdog, with only an 8.2% chance of winning the game. That win vaulted the Eagles up in both the ACC and national rankings for the first time in over a month.

BC is "up" to #104 in the country, plus nine spots from last week and now 13th in the ACC, passing Virginia Tech.

Had to go into the BC record book for some of the fallout from this game.

  • BC trails under 1 minute in a win - last time 2007 at VT. Trailed 14-10 with 0:11 remaining.
  • Tied 3rd largest comeback ever 14 points - last time 1997 vs West Virginia
  • Tied 6th largest halftime deficit ever - 10 points - last time1984 at Alabama
  • Largest deficit ever after 3 quarters 13 points - previously 10 points three times, last vs VT 2007
  • First first ACC team to win a game with negative rush yards in 10 years (FSU vs Virginia Tech 2012).

I am trying to confirm this, but I do believe this marks the fewest yards rushing in a win in BC history. For some context, since 2009, BC has finished with under 10 yards rushing, 7 times in a game. The only win in that period was a 20-17 win at home vs Maryland in 2012.

Games since 2009 under 10 yards rushing:

Yds Rush Opponent Year Result
(1) at NC State 2022 W
4 at Virginia Tech 2022 L
7 at Virginia 2020 L
9 vs Clemson 2018 L
(14) at Louisville 2015 L
8 vs Maryland 2012 W
5 vs Notre Dame 2010 L

The Eagles are another big underdog this week at Book #17 Notre Dame, the Irish a 23.4 point favorites with us (21 in Vegas) with a 98.5% chance to win the game.

Then there are these set of facts from ESPN, that if anything, just add more to the confusion, not necessarily regarding who wins, but will BC cover.

- Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS as a double digit favorite this year.

- Notre Dame is 0-4 ATS against teams with losing records this year. ND lost two of those games outright.

- Notre Dame has covered each of its last three meetings with BC

- BC is 1-4 ATS on the road this season

Boston College's estimated win total now is 3.4. 1.5% to beat Notre Dame and 38.2% to beat Syracuse (+5.7).

NATIONAL STAGE

For the first time in many weeks, Georgia has ascended to the top of the Book ranking, now owning both the #1 power rating and #1 strength of record. Ohio State is #2, with Michigan and Tennessee rounding out the top 5.

It is questionable as to whether Georgia will hold on to that ranking through the end of the regular season, particularly if Ohio State were to beat Michigan and then definitely hold the lead with strength of record.

Below is the chart of the Book top 12 and CFP top 12, which although they don't match, now contain the same twelve teams.

Of interest, USC holds no wins over current Book 25 top teams and only Utah has a loss to a non Book top 25 team. CFP #4 TCU is 6th is The Book and is the only team to hold three wins over top 25 teams.

To look ahead to next week, Ohio State is currently an 8.7 point favorite in that matchup vs Michigan at the Horseshoe.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS BOOK TOP 25 WINS BOOK LOSSES
1 1 GEORGIA 10 0 1 1 21 12 Oregon, 4 Tennessee None
2 2 OHIO ST 10 0 2 2 38 17 Notre Dame, @8 Penn St None
3 3 MICHIGAN 10 0 5 4 62 8 Penn St None
4 6 TCU 10 0 11 3 37 25 Oklahoma St, 15 Kansas St, @21 Texas None
5 4 TENNESSEE 9 1 4 5 19 @9 LSU, 5 Alabama @1 Georgia
6 9 LSU 8 2 8 12 8 13 Mississippi, 5 Alabama 16 Florida St, 4 Tennessee
7 10 USC 9 1 17 7 59 None @11 Utah
8 5 ALABAMA 8 2 3 9 10 @21 Texas, @13 Mississippi @4 Tennessee, @9 LSU
9 7 CLEMSON 9 1 9 6 47 @16 Florida St @17 Notre Dame
10 11 UTAH 8 2 7 15 44 10 USC @Florida, @20 UCLA
11 8 PENN ST 8 2 6 10 18 24 Minnesota 2 Ohio St, @3 Michigan
12 12 OREGON 8 2 13 14 49 20 UCLA @1 Georgia, 18 Washington

THE BOOK VS THE WORLD

I downloaded all the information from the Prediction Tracker site and put it into a simple table. This shows all the metrics they look at and where The Book would rank across the 53 systems, using simple rankings for each metric.

By that measure, the Book ranks 15th of the 53 systems, which is pretty great in my eyes. The well documented struggles against the spread are compensated by almost everything else including Mean Square error, which is considered the "most accurate system", where we are 6th and 4th if you remove the Vegas line options.

Note that for games against the spread, Prediction Tracker uses the midweek (Thursday morning) Vegas lines, so that "system" we aren't showing, but as you can see, the Vegas line, whether it be midweek, opening or closing lines are the gold standard in terms overall predictive analytics and also shows why it is so tough to make money betting games.

Rank System Pct.
Correct
Against
Spread
Absolute
Error
Bias Mean
Square
Error
games suw sul atsw atsl Pct
Rank
Spread
Rank
Abs Error
Rank
Bias
Rank
MSE
Rank
Total
1 Massey Ratings 0.7124 0.5253 12.4638 (0.3095) 245.428 598 426 172 311 281 9 3 14 12 13 51
2 Line (opening) 0.7157 0.5061 11.9532 0.5134 227.313 598 428 170 249 243 6 12 2 31 3 54
3 Line (updated) 0.7274 0.4891 11.9423 0.4356 225.592 598 435 163 134 140 1 24 1 28 1 55
4 Donchess Inference 0.7107 0.5155 12.4495 0.1930 246.747 598 425 173 299 281 10 4 13 22 16 65
5 Sagarin Ratings 0.7174 0.4890 12.5007 (0.4223) 245.565 598 429 169 290 303 3 25 17 8 14 67
6 System Median 0.6990 0.4974 12.3505 0.2761 240.942 598 418 180 290 293 21 18 7 24 8 78
7 David Harville 0.7023 0.5034 12.4830 (0.2171) 248.181 598 420 178 298 294 17 14 15 15 18 79
8 ESPN FPI 0.7107 0.4974 12.1974 0.7832 236.288 591 420 171 291 294 13 17 5 40 5 80
9 TeamRankings.com 0.7107 0.4685 12.3436 0.0135 242.785 598 425 173 275 312 10 42 6 17 9 84
10 Sagarin Points 0.7040 0.4924 12.5447 (0.4174) 248.382 598 421 177 291 300 16 22 18 9 19 84
11 Computer Adjusted Line 0.7274 0.4563 11.9783 0.4181 226.735 598 435 163 162 193 1 52 3 27 2 85
12 Dokter Entropy 0.7141 0.4822 12.1830 0.8341 233.865 598 427 171 285 306 7 29 4 41 4 85
13 Sagarin Golden Mean 0.6873 0.5093 12.4970 (0.3250) 248.174 598 411 187 302 291 36 9 16 11 17 89
14 Pi-Ratings Mean 0.7174 0.4761 12.3526 0.7594 240.280 598 429 169 279 307 3 37 9 38 7 94
15 The Book 0.7126 0.4570 12.3507 0.2072 239.700 598 424 171 266 316 8 50 8 23 6 95
16 System Average 0.6940 0.4848 12.4394 0.3062 243.505 598 415 183 287 305 29 27 12 25 10 103
17 Pi-Rate Ratings 0.7174 0.4770 12.4120 0.9338 244.902 598 429 169 280 307 3 36 10 46 11 106
18 Payne Power Ratings 0.6990 0.5008 12.8501 0.0200 262.511 598 418 180 297 296 21 15 26 18 27 107
19 PI-Rate Bias 0.7107 0.4805 12.4216 0.9223 244.970 598 425 173 284 307 10 31 11 45 12 109
20 FEI Projections 0.6741 0.4831 12.6237 (2.1584) 255.104 448 302 146 214 229 45 28 20 2 22 117
21 Talisman Red 0.6957 0.5093 13.0470 0.0473 271.479 598 416 182 302 291 28 9 31 19 31 118
22 Laz Index 0.6930 0.5068 12.9579 0.1618 262.062 596 413 183 299 291 31 11 29 21 26 118
23 Sagarin Recent 0.7023 0.4595 12.7681 (0.2596) 255.579 598 420 178 272 320 17 48 24 13 23 125
24 Edward Kambour 0.6879 0.4772 12.6746 0.3938 254.843 596 410 186 282 309 35 35 22 26 21 139
25 ARGH Power Ratings 0.6806 0.4903 13.1066 (0.4285) 275.239 598 407 191 278 289 41 23 35 7 35 141
26 Waywardtrends 0.6856 0.4958 12.8839 0.5342 262.528 598 410 188 294 299 38 19 27 32 28 144
27 Pigskin Index 0.7007 0.4681 12.6287 0.8498 250.897 598 419 179 264 300 20 43 21 42 20 146
28 Versus Sports Simulator 0.7059 0.4593 12.7888 0.6149 258.697 595 420 175 271 319 14 49 25 36 25 149
29 Brent Craig 0.7056 0.4471 12.5891 0.9550 246.649 591 417 174 262 324 15 53 19 47 15 149
30 Moore Power Ratings 0.6851 0.4789 13.1643 (0.3949) 274.322 597 409 188 283 308 39 34 36 10 33 152
31 Stat Fox 0.6966 0.4868 12.7577 2.0054 256.290 590 411 179 276 291 26 26 23 54 24 153
32 DP Dwiggins 0.6973 0.4706 13.4900 (1.2960) 284.878 598 417 181 272 306 23 41 45 3 44 156
33 Logistic Regression 0.6725 0.5529 14.5942 (0.7005) 389.360 171 115 56 94 76 46 2 54 4 54 160
34 Bihl System 0.6642 0.4799 12.9536 0.1468 269.095 274 182 92 131 142 51 32 28 20 30 161
35 Keeper 0.6973 0.5152 13.3229 1.5240 280.818 598 417 181 305 287 23 5 41 52 40 161
36 Linear Regression 0.6959 0.4941 13.0201 1.4460 272.860 171 119 52 84 86 27 21 30 51 32 161
37 Roundtable 0.6786 0.5126 13.0893 0.5848 282.705 448 304 144 224 213 43 7 34 35 43 162
38 Payne W/L 0.6689 0.5042 13.6318 (0.5519) 295.200 598 400 198 298 293 49 13 47 6 48 163
39 Loudsound.org 0.6633 0.5140 14.1337 (3.8088) 314.143 591 392 199 293 277 53 6 51 1 52 163
40 Billingsley 0.6667 0.5110 13.5652 (0.2302) 293.926 597 398 199 302 289 50 8 46 14 47 165
41 Dave Congrove 0.6789 0.4949 13.0709 0.8896 265.277 598 406 192 293 299 42 20 33 43 29 167
42 Laffaye RWP 0.6912 0.4731 13.7333 (0.6772) 293.233 544 376 168 255 284 32 38 48 5 46 169
43 Least Squares w/ HFA 0.7016 0.5726 14.3552 1.0050 305.607 124 87 37 71 53 19 1 53 48 49 170
44 Daniel Curry Index 0.6773 0.4975 13.2591 0.5658 280.423 598 405 193 295 298 44 16 39 34 39 172
45 Howell 0.6840 0.4806 13.3913 (0.1253) 292.366 598 409 189 273 295 40 30 43 16 45 174
46 Payne Predict 0.6890 0.4712 13.2388 0.7323 276.653 598 412 186 278 312 34 40 38 37 38 187
47 Born Power Index 0.6973 0.4570 13.2071 1.1729 275.773 598 417 181 271 322 23 51 37 49 36 196
48 Massey Consensus 0.6906 0.4604 13.0698 1.3389 274.804 598 413 185 273 320 33 47 32 50 34 196
49 Beck Elo 0.6722 0.4713 13.3070 0.5642 276.458 598 402 196 279 313 47 39 40 33 37 196
50 Dunkel Index 0.6858 0.4663 13.3518 0.8967 281.300 506 347 159 235 269 37 44 42 44 41 208
51 Stephen Kerns 0.6940 0.4652 14.3175 0.4922 323.459 598 415 183 274 315 29 46 52 30 53 210
52 Cleanup Hitter 0.6639 0.4653 13.9824 0.4842 305.816 598 397 201 268 308 52 45 49 29 50 225
53 PerformanZ Ratings 0.6572 0.4789 14.0917 0.7705 310.368 598 393 205 284 309 54 33 50 39 51 227
54 Catherwood Ratings 0.6706 0.4360 13.4666 1.7843 282.491 598 401 197 252 326 48 54 44 53 42 241

Sorting by rank for accuracy vs more betting focused initiatives like pct winners (moneyline) and spread (obvious), shows the difficult line to walk.

Of the top 10 systems against the spread, six of those ten are 40th or below in the accuracy category, with only the Massey Ratings, Donchess Inference and Sagarin Golden Mean in the top 20 and no one in the top 10. The first top 10 MSE is ESPNs FPI at #17 vs the spread and 5th for MSE.

Bottom line, I have a long way to go!

OUR WEEKLY PICKS

Slightly up on the money line last week, slightly down vs the spread, so down 0.95 units for the week.

Here are this week's picks.

My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
Nevada 22.5 at Fresno St
at Texas A&M (34.0) Umass
at Georgia Southern 3.5 Marshall
Connecticut 320 at Army

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 OHIO ST 10 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 (1)
3 MICHIGAN 10 0 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 0
4 TENNESSEE 9 1 4 5 4 3 5 5 5 5 0
5 ALABAMA 8 2 3 9 3 6 3 8 8 8 0
6 TCU 10 0 11 3 9 5 16 4 4 4 0
7 CLEMSON 9 1 9 6 14 9 9 9 9 9 1
8 PENN ST 8 2 6 10 7 8 8 11 12 11 1
9 LSU 8 2 8 12 10 7 10 6 7 6 3
10 USC 9 1 17 7 13 11 14 7 6 7 1
11 UTAH 8 2 7 15 6 10 6 10 10 10 3
12 OREGON 8 2 13 14 8 13 13 12 13 12 (5)
13 MISSISSIPPI 8 2 16 13 17 14 15 14 14 14 (3)
14 NORTH CAROLINA 9 1 32 8 36 20 30 13 11 13 1
15 KANSAS ST 7 3 12 23 11 12 12 19 17 15 4
16 FLORIDA ST 7 3 10 30 16 16 11 20 20 19 9
17 NOTRE DAME 7 3 15 25 15 17 17 18 19 18 0
18 WASHINGTON 8 2 31 16 20 21 27 15 15 17 9
19 UCF 8 2 28 19 27 19 21 17 18 20 4
20 UCLA 8 2 29 17 25 18 29 16 16 16 (7)
21 TEXAS 6 4 14 37 12 15 7 (5)
22 OREGON ST 7 3 26 27 19 23 28 25 23 10
23 CINCINNATI 8 2 43 18 39 29 34 22 21 25 5
24 MINNESOTA 7 3 19 32 26 33 18 9
25 OKLAHOMA ST 7 3 27 29 23 22 31 24 24 22 6
26 FLORIDA 6 4 18 38 21 25 24 13
27 IOWA 6 4 20 35 24 32 33 13
28 MISSISSIPPI ST 6 4 24 33 30 24 20 (8)
29 ILLINOIS 7 3 36 28 37 27 32 (11)
30 TULANE 8 2 49 21 47 26 44 21 22 21 (9)
31 LOUISVILLE 6 4 22 47 29 28 22 (5)
32 BAYLOR 6 4 21 49 18 30 19 (10)
33 UTSA 8 2 59 22 62 41 57 12
34 BOISE ST 7 3 37 39 35 55 50 15
35 COASTAL CAROLINA 9 1 78 11 78 46 79 23 23 3
36 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 3 45 31 45 31 41 25 24 (12)
37 WASHINGTON ST 6 4 42 43 32 36 43 9
38 PURDUE 6 4 39 45 40 38 36 13
39 OKLAHOMA 5 5 23 63 22 42 25 (5)
40 PITTSBURGH 6 4 41 50 42 49 39 14
41 WAKE FOREST 6 4 40 53 38 35 35 (4)
42 SOUTH ALABAMA 8 2 66 26 66 44 67 6
43 TROY 8 2 71 20 70 40 69 4
44 KENTUCKY 6 4 44 48 43 43 47 (14)
45 WISCONSIN 5 5 25 66 31 50 23 (10)
46 ARKANSAS 5 5 30 62 33 45 45 (3)
47 MARYLAND 6 4 48 41 52 47 37 (11)
48 LIBERTY 8 2 72 24 74 48 68 (19)
49 MICHIGAN ST 5 5 38 60 46 54 42 3
50 DUKE 7 3 61 34 53 56 55 5
51 AIR FORCE 7 3 57 40 51 61 56 2
52 KANSAS 6 4 54 46 44 34 48 (10)
53 TEXAS TECH 5 5 33 67 34 37 38 6
54 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 4 50 52 57 57 62 (13)
55 SMU 6 4 46 56 49 51 53 2
56 WESTERN KENTUCKY 7 4 51 55 61 65 49 7
57 SYRACUSE 6 4 58 51 58 39 46 (13)
58 EAST CAROLINA 6 4 52 57 54 53 52 (8)
59 TOLEDO 7 3 70 44 68 62 73 1
60 IOWA ST 4 6 34 76 28 52 26 (4)
61 OHIO 7 3 83 36 79 71 99 7
62 HOUSTON 6 4 67 54 69 58 60 0
63 BYU 5 5 56 65 55 59 64 (5)
64 AUBURN 4 6 47 73 48 60 51 6
65 FRESNO ST 6 4 63 64 65 69 71 2
66 JAMES MADISON 6 3 73 59 67 63 66 6
67 MIAMI FL 5 5 53 74 71 81 63 7
68 MEMPHIS 5 5 64 70 60 67 58 5
69 WYOMING 7 3 100 42 97 77 102 0
70 WEST VIRGINIA 4 6 55 86 50 68 54 9
71 TEXAS A&M 3 7 35 101 41 72 40 (6)
72 SAN DIEGO ST 6 4 84 61 81 75 93 3
73 MISSOURI 4 6 60 80 63 64 59 (9)
74 MARSHALL 6 4 75 69 75 66 74 2
75 SAN JOSE ST 6 3 94 58 84 73 86 (14)
76 ARIZONA 4 6 68 79 56 70 75 11
77 NORTH TEXAS 6 5 80 72 85 82 77 (11)
78 UAB 5 5 69 89 76 76 61 13
79 APPALACHIAN ST 5 5 74 92 72 74 65 (8)
80 LOUISIANA 5 5 76 88 77 79 81 14
81 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 5 82 81 83 87 78 15
82 VANDERBILT 4 6 91 84 91 78 92 17
83 NEBRASKA 3 7 65 105 73 95 76 1
84 RUTGERS 4 6 85 93 89 91 85 2
85 ARIZONA ST 3 7 62 109 59 83 70 (2)
86 BUFFALO 5 5 95 85 90 88 97 (8)
87 SOUTHERN MISS 5 5 97 78 99 86 96 (5)
88 EASTERN MICHIGAN 6 4 109 68 107 101 115 5
89 UTAH ST 5 5 103 75 105 97 110 9
90 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 5 5 98 83 93 85 88 (13)
91 CONNECTICUT 6 5 108 71 110 90 120 12
92 CALIFORNIA 3 7 77 104 64 84 72 (7)
93 GEORGIA TECH 4 6 99 91 102 92 91 (12)
94 INDIANA 3 7 90 95 88 89 84 1
95 GEORGIA ST 4 6 93 96 94 93 89 (15)
96 BALL ST 5 5 105 87 104 99 111 (4)
97 STANFORD 3 7 86 102 80 80 80 (8)
98 NAVY 3 7 79 110 82 94 87 4
99 VIRGINIA 3 7 88 107 86 98 83 (9)
100 KENT ST 4 6 102 98 95 96 100 11
101 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 5 5 110 90 112 107 101 5
102 ARMY 3 6 81 114 87 100 82 (1)
103 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 4 6 101 100 101 103 103 5
104 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 7 92 111 98 102 94 9
105 BOWLING GREEN 5 5 117 77 121 109 123 (17)
106 UNLV 4 6 104 97 103 106 104 (6)
107 RICE 5 5 120 82 118 105 117 (10)
108 TULSA 3 7 96 112 100 104 90 (4)
109 LA MONROE 4 6 114 94 115 108 116 7
110 MIAMI OH 4 6 107 106 108 111 114 (5)
111 VIRGINIA TECH 2 8 89 122 96 112 98 (4)
112 UTEP 4 6 119 103 123 117 119 0
113 NORTHWESTERN 1 9 87 124 92 113 95 (3)
114 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 3 7 106 119 106 114 109 5
115 OLD DOMINION 3 7 115 113 114 110 106 (6)
116 WESTERN MICHIGAN 3 7 113 117 109 120 118 (2)
117 TEMPLE 3 7 111 118 111 121 112 0
118 NEW MEXICO ST 4 5 127 99 127 123 127 2
119 TEXAS ST 3 7 116 120 120 115 107 (1)
120 LOUISIANA TECH 3 7 122 115 122 119 113 (5)
121 ARKANSAS ST 3 7 123 116 116 116 105 1
122 COLORADO 1 9 118 123 113 118 121 (1)
123 COLORADO ST 2 8 121 121 119 124 126 1
124 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 9 112 128 117 122 108 2
125 NEVADA 2 8 124 125 124 126 122 0
126 FLORIDA INTL 4 6 131 108 130 125 131 (3)
127 NEW MEXICO 2 8 128 126 125 127 124 0
128 CHARLOTTE 2 9 126 127 129 128 125 0
129 HAWAII 2 9 125 129 126 129 128 0
130 AKRON 1 9 129 130 128 130 129 0
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 9 130 131 131 131 130 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 9 1 9 6 14 9 9 9 9 9 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA 9 1 32 8 36 20 30 13 11 13 0
3 FLORIDA ST 7 3 10 30 16 16 11 20 20 19 1
4 LOUISVILLE 6 4 22 47 29 28 22 1
5 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 3 45 31 45 31 41 25 24 (2)
6 PITTSBURGH 6 4 41 50 42 49 39 2
7 WAKE FOREST 6 4 40 53 38 35 35 (1)
8 DUKE 7 3 61 34 53 56 55 1
9 SYRACUSE 6 4 58 51 58 39 46 (2)
10 MIAMI FL 5 5 53 74 71 81 63 0
11 GEORGIA TECH 4 6 99 91 102 92 91 0
12 VIRGINIA 3 7 88 107 86 98 83 0
13 BOSTON COLLEGE 3 7 92 111 98 102 94 1
14 VIRGINIA TECH 2 8 89 122 96 112 98 (1)
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Toledo 16.6 Bowling Green 84.4%
Ohio 4.2 at Ball St 58.7%
at Kent St 5.6 Eastern Michigan 61.6%
at Central Michigan 6.6 Western Michigan 63.7%
at Northern Illinois 3.7 Miami OH 57.7%
at Tulane 3.1 SMU 56.4%
San Diego St 16.6 at New Mexico 84.4%
at Tulsa 7.4 South Florida 65.4%
Mississippi 1.6 at Arkansas 53.3%
Georgia 23.7 at Kentucky 99.2%
at Missouri 26.0 New Mexico St > 99.99%
Tennessee 21.2 at South Carolina 94.0%
at Texas A&M 39.0 Massachusetts > 99.99%
Florida 17.3 at Vanderbilt 85.9%
Washington St 5.7 at Arizona 61.8%
Oregon St 7.8 at Arizona St 66.2%
at California 3.5 Stanford 57.3%
at Washington 28.1 Colorado > 99.99%
at Oregon 0.1 Utah 50.2%
USC 1.0 at UCLA 52.1%
TCU 2.1 at Baylor 54.4%
at Iowa St 2.3 Texas Tech 54.8%
Texas 11.1 at Kansas 73.0%
Kansas St 10.2 at West Virginia 71.2%
at Oklahoma 3.7 Oklahoma St 57.7%
at Liberty 7.2 Virginia Tech 64.9%
at Minnesota 2.8 Iowa 55.8%
Wisconsin 9.3 at Nebraska 69.3%
at Purdue 15.5 Northwestern 82.2%
Ohio St 25.1 at Maryland > 99.99%
at Michigan 20.3 Illinois 92.1%
at Michigan St 15.9 Indiana 83.0%
Penn St 23.0 at Rutgers 97.7%
at Clemson 16.0 Miami FL 83.2%
at Florida St 22.2 Louisiana 96.1%
at Louisville 9.1 North Carolina St 68.9%
at North Carolina 20.6 Georgia Tech 92.7%
at Pittsburgh 8.9 Duke 68.5%
at Virginia 0.8 Coastal Carolina 51.7%
at Wake Forest 8.4 Syracuse 67.4%
at Air Force 22.2 Colorado St 96.1%
at Utah St 0.1 San Jose St 50.2%
UNLV 8.6 at Hawaii 67.8%
at East Carolina 5.1 Houston 60.6%
at UCF 17.6 Navy 86.5%
Cincinnati 17.8 at Temple 86.9%
at Appalachian St 14.1 Old Dominion 79.2%
Marshall 2.9 at Georgia Southern 56.0%
at James Madison 6.7 Georgia St 63.9%
South Alabama 5.9 at Southern Miss 62.2%
at Texas St 6.0 Arkansas St 62.4%
at Troy 14.0 LA Monroe 79.0%
at LSU 21.7 UAB 95.0%
at Auburn 4.0 Western Kentucky 58.3%
at Army 9.9 Connecticut 70.5%
UTSA 16.5 at Rice 84.2%
at Notre Dame 23.4 Boston College 98.5%
at Buffalo 17.7 Akron 86.7%
Louisiana Tech 1.9 at Charlotte 53.9%
Florida Atlantic 6.2 at Middle Tennessee 62.9%
at UTEP 15.1 Florida Intl 81.3%
Boise St 14.9 at Wyoming 80.9%
Fresno St 17.4 at Nevada 86.1%

Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 30 32 0.484
Previous 236 284 0.45385
Total 266 316 0.45704
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 48 16 0.750
Previous 376 155 0.708
Total 424 171 0.71261
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.5828 64
Previous 12.3228 534
Total 12.3507 598
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 236.3495 64
Previous 240.1020 534
Total 239.7004 598
Bias Avg Games
Week 1.3297 64
Previous 0.0727 534
Total 0.2072 598

Money Line Picks Units
Week 0.15
Previous (24.64)
Total (24.49)
Spread Picks Units
Week (1.10)
Previous 4.60
Total 3.50
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4 (2.30) 1 3
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 0.90 2 1
Week 7 2.00 2 0
Week 8 1.90 3 1
Week 9 (1.20) 1 2
Week 10 1.00 1 0
Week 11 (1.10) 0 1
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 3.50 20 15
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4 (1.00) 0 1
Week 5 (22.00) 3 1
Week 6 0.10 1 1
Week 7 (1.33) 2 2
Week 8 (1.50) 1 4
Week 9 (0.70) 1 2
Week 10 2.60 2 6
Week 11 0.15 1 2
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (24.49) 16 26