FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 11 - November 12

Better late than never…so let’s get to Week 11!

Boston College

The Eagles loss to Duke dropped BC another one spot nationally, down to #113, now just above only Colorado (#121) in the power five conferences. BC remains last in the ACC.

BC’s power rating is a bit higher at 100, but between the strength of record and power rating, this is pretty much where all of the computer ranking systems see the Eagles.

BC is a 19.9 point underdog at NC State on Saturday, with the Book seeing the Wolfpack a 91.8% chance to come out a winner.

Pick Your Own Matchups

As we introduced a few weeks ago, you can go to this link and create your own matchups and current spreads for those games.

The Book FBS Power Ratings

Nationally

Although Georgia’s win over Tennessee was clearly the most impactful nationally, it didn’t move the Bulldogs to #1 in our system. We still have Ohio State slightly ahead in terms of power rating and even strength of record.

The Buckeyes would be a 0.52 point favorite of the Dogs on a neutral field and have a Strength of record of 26 as opposed to Georgia’s of 29, based not on the top wins, but on all their games.

Michigan and Tennessee round out the Book’s top four as opposed to Michigan and TCU (#6 in the Book) from the CFP committed.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS BOOK TOP 25 WINS BOOK LOSSES
1 2 GEORGIA 9 0 2 2 29 #7 OREGON, #4 TENNESSEE NONE
2 1 OHIO ST 9 0 1 1 26 #17 NOTRE DAME, AT #9 PENN ST NONE
3 3 MICHIGAN 9 0 4 4 65 #9 PENN ST NONE
4 6 TCU 9 0 14 3 42 #19 KANSAS ST NONE
5 4 TENNESSEE 8 1 5 5 18 AT #12 LSU, #5 ALABAMA AT #2 GEORGIA
6 7 OREGON 8 1 7 9 47 #13 UCLA #2 GEORGIA
7 12 LSU 7 2 6 17 12 #20 MISSISSIPPI ST, #10 MISSISSIPPI, #5 ALABAMA #3 TENNESSEE, #25 FLORIDA ST
8 11 USC 8 1 23 6 44 NONE AT #14 UTAH
9 5 ALABAMA 7 2 3 15 15 AT #16 TEXAS, #20 MISSISSIPPI ST AT #3 TENNESSEE, AT #12 LSU
10 8 CLEMSON 8 1 12 8 46 #24 NORTH CAROLINA ST, #25 FLORIDA ST AT #17 NOTRE DAME
11 10 MISSISSIPPI 8 1 18 7 53 NONE AT #12 LSU
12 13 UCLA 8 1 21 10 64 #14 UTAH AT #7 OREGON

Frauds?

Based on the CFP rankings, I am looking for teams that I believe may be frauds and others who may be underrated. This is where I see a team’s power rating well below their strength of record rating.

TCU – power rating of 14, strength of record of 3. The Horned Frogs are a 7 point underdog this week at Texas, this is only the seventh time since 1979 where a team with three losses has been favored over a team 9-0 or better. In those other six games, the team with three losses is 4-2 straight up. That said, the model says take the Frogs on the ML.

USC – power rating of 23, strength of record rating of 6. The Trojans have no wins over current Book top 25 teams this season. The meat of their schedule, outside of the one loss to Utah, sits in front of them. In the moment, USC will be an underdog to both UCLA (+3.2) and Notre Dame (+2.3).

Mississippi – power rating of 18, strength of record rating of 7. Like USC, the Rebels have no Top 25 wins and all at least one or two challenging games in front of them.

UCLA – power rating of 21, strength of record rating of 10. The Bruins do own the win over Utah and are currently favored in all of the rest of their games, but in their one big test were drubbed by Oregon. Could be a case where they wind up an overrated 11-1 team.

My Picks

Good week last week, at plus 3.6 units overall. Our picks for the week are below.

This Week's Picks
My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
North Texas 5.5 at UAB
Louisville 250 at Clemson
South Carolina 260 at Florida
TCU 215 at Texas

Odds and Ends

One of the areas I need to dig into is our success with power five picks vs group of five picks. Seems on the surface that we’ve picked and struggled far more with the group of five teams.

Rutgers vs Michigan State – we have MSU a huge 18.3 point favorite with Vegas having Sparty a TD favorite..so why not choose Michigan State? What I have found through the years and evaluating picks this year too, when we have a massive discrepancy, which looks like a layup to take, there is generally a problem. Someone is hurt, the model doesn’t understand the two teams adequately. Let’s see what happens with this one.

Large spread picks – I’ve railed on this now for the past month, but that one missed selection of Fresno State vs Connecticut has really ruined 2022. To make matters worse, those large spread games (20 to 25 point favorites on the money line) are 25-1 on the year…the one of course, Fresno/UConn.

That week, I picked two of these games and wound up a net -24 units because of. Outside of that, we would be -0.64 units vs the ML and +4.6 on the spread for the year to date.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 OHIO ST 9 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0
2 GEORGIA 9 0 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0
3 MICHIGAN 9 0 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2
4 TENNESSEE 8 1 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 (1)
5 ALABAMA 7 2 3 15 3 6 3 10 11 9 (1)
6 TCU 9 0 14 3 13 5 14 4 4 4 1
7 OREGON 8 1 7 9 6 7 11 6 6 6 2
8 CLEMSON 8 1 12 8 15 9 8 12 12 10 (2)
9 PENN ST 7 2 8 16 10 11 10 14 15 14 3
10 MISSISSIPPI 8 1 18 7 19 14 12 11 9 11 (2)
11 USC 8 1 23 6 14 10 13 8 7 8 (1)
12 LSU 7 2 6 17 9 8 9 7 8 7 2
13 UCLA 8 1 21 10 18 12 21 9 10 12 0
14 UTAH 7 2 11 19 8 13 7 13 13 13 3
15 NORTH CAROLINA 8 1 35 11 40 22 28 15 14 15 1
16 TEXAS 6 3 9 26 7 15 6 18 18 18 3
17 NOTRE DAME 6 3 10 30 11 17 15 20 25 20 8
18 ILLINOIS 7 2 27 18 31 19 27 21 20 21 (7)
19 KANSAS ST 6 3 17 28 17 16 18 23 22 19 (4)
20 MISSISSIPPI ST 6 3 22 27 23 18 19 1
21 TULANE 8 1 49 13 44 23 43 16 17 17 5
22 BAYLOR 6 3 13 38 12 25 16 10
23 UCF 7 2 29 23 32 24 24 22 21 22 5
24 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 2 39 20 36 20 34 17 16 16 7
25 FLORIDA ST 6 3 15 36 21 21 17 25 23 11
26 LOUISVILLE 6 3 19 35 22 27 23 8
27 WASHINGTON 7 2 42 21 27 29 30 24 23 25 6
28 CINCINNATI 7 2 38 22 38 37 31 (1)
29 LIBERTY 8 1 64 12 64 36 63 19 19 11
30 KENTUCKY 6 3 32 33 34 30 40 24 24 7
31 OKLAHOMA ST 6 3 25 37 25 26 33 (13)
32 OREGON ST 6 3 34 31 26 31 38 (12)
33 MINNESOTA 6 3 24 42 33 39 20 5
34 OKLAHOMA 5 4 20 52 16 34 25 (11)
35 WISCONSIN 5 4 16 56 20 42 22 8
36 MARYLAND 6 3 44 34 46 38 29 (12)
37 WAKE FOREST 6 3 37 41 37 33 36 (15)
38 COASTAL CAROLINA 8 1 75 14 74 45 78 4
39 FLORIDA 5 4 26 49 29 35 32 8
40 IOWA 5 4 28 50 28 43 37 8
41 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 3 43 39 49 46 53 0
42 KANSAS 6 3 50 32 39 28 44 7
43 ARKANSAS 5 4 31 55 35 41 47 (14)
44 SYRACUSE 6 3 47 40 48 32 35 (14)
45 UTSA 7 2 68 24 73 51 66 0
46 WASHINGTON ST 5 4 41 54 30 40 42 8
47 TROY 7 2 71 25 62 44 68 (1)
48 SOUTH ALABAMA 7 2 66 29 63 47 65 3
49 BOISE ST 6 3 46 48 45 60 57 (14)
50 EAST CAROLINA 6 3 54 44 54 47 51 (6)
51 PURDUE 5 4 45 57 47 53 46 (12)
52 MICHIGAN ST 4 5 30 67 42 54 39 7
53 AIR FORCE 6 3 56 47 55 63 59 3
54 PITTSBURGH 5 4 48 58 51 55 48 6
55 DUKE 6 3 65 45 56 57 56 3
56 IOWA ST 4 5 36 73 24 49 26 7
57 SMU 5 4 52 62 50 52 54 7
58 BYU 5 5 55 59 58 56 61 10
59 TEXAS TECH 4 5 40 76 43 50 45 (7)
60 TOLEDO 6 3 67 53 66 66 70 (7)
61 SAN JOSE ST 6 2 83 43 76 61 81 0
62 HOUSTON 5 4 59 61 61 58 58 (12)
63 WESTERN KENTUCKY 6 4 61 60 72 70 50 9
64 MISSOURI 4 5 51 78 53 59 55 (7)
65 TEXAS A&M 3 6 33 91 41 64 41 (10)
66 NORTH TEXAS 6 4 73 63 77 72 74 9
67 FRESNO ST 5 4 58 68 68 71 73 11
68 OHIO 6 3 90 46 86 75 102 9
69 WYOMING 6 3 97 51 92 76 101 (4)
70 AUBURN 3 6 53 85 52 62 49 0
71 APPALACHIAN ST 5 4 72 77 67 65 62 (9)
72 JAMES MADISON 5 3 85 64 75 69 72 (5)
73 MEMPHIS 4 5 69 81 65 68 60 (2)
74 MIAMI FL 4 5 62 87 79 88 67 (8)
75 SAN DIEGO ST 5 4 95 66 91 90 97 10
76 MARSHALL 5 4 81 80 80 67 77 14
77 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 5 4 88 74 85 77 84 (3)
78 BUFFALO 5 4 94 71 87 78 92 (9)
79 WEST VIRGINIA 3 6 57 97 57 73 52 (3)
80 GEORGIA ST 4 5 80 84 82 79 82 20
81 GEORGIA TECH 4 5 89 79 90 80 88 12
82 SOUTHERN MISS 5 4 98 69 98 83 95 (9)
83 ARIZONA ST 3 6 60 103 60 82 71 (4)
84 NEBRASKA 3 6 63 102 71 94 75 (2)
85 CALIFORNIA 3 6 70 99 59 81 69 3
86 RUTGERS 4 5 93 82 97 91 90 (5)
87 ARIZONA 3 6 78 90 69 84 80 (3)
88 BOWLING GREEN 5 4 110 65 114 93 121 11
89 STANFORD 3 6 76 96 70 74 79 (9)
90 VIRGINIA 3 6 74 104 78 87 76 (1)
91 UAB 4 5 77 100 83 85 64 (8)
92 BALL ST 5 4 105 75 104 97 115 9
93 EASTERN MICHIGAN 5 4 109 72 106 105 114 (2)
94 LOUISIANA 4 5 86 93 81 89 85 (7)
95 INDIANA 3 6 87 92 88 86 83 (9)
96 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 4 5 96 88 95 95 87 (4)
97 RICE 5 4 114 70 111 98 113 5
98 UTAH ST 4 5 101 86 102 104 111 7
99 VANDERBILT 3 6 99 94 100 92 96 (3)
100 UNLV 4 5 104 89 99 101 105 (5)
101 ARMY 3 5 84 111 96 99 86 (4)
102 NAVY 3 6 92 106 89 96 93 1
103 CONNECTICUT 5 5 116 83 118 103 123 6
104 TULSA 3 6 91 108 93 100 89 (6)
105 MIAMI OH 4 5 103 98 101 106 110 (1)
106 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4 5 113 95 113 108 100 (12)
107 VIRGINIA TECH 2 7 82 120 94 111 94 0
108 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 3 6 102 114 103 109 106 9
109 OLD DOMINION 3 6 107 110 109 102 99 (3)
110 NORTHWESTERN 1 8 79 125 84 110 91 4
111 KENT ST 3 6 108 112 107 107 104 (3)
112 UTEP 4 6 121 105 122 118 119 (2)
113 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 7 100 118 105 114 98 (1)
114 WESTERN MICHIGAN 3 6 112 115 110 116 116 (3)
115 LOUISIANA TECH 3 6 115 113 115 115 107 8
116 LA MONROE 3 6 123 109 124 112 117 5
117 TEMPLE 3 6 119 116 117 121 118 8
118 TEXAS ST 3 6 117 117 121 113 109 (5)
119 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 2 7 106 126 108 120 112 (4)
120 NEW MEXICO ST 3 5 128 107 127 126 129 0
121 COLORADO 1 8 118 122 112 119 120 (2)
122 ARKANSAS ST 2 7 120 121 116 117 103 2
123 FLORIDA INTL 4 5 130 101 130 122 130 (7)
124 COLORADO ST 2 7 124 119 123 124 126 (2)
125 NEVADA 2 7 122 123 120 125 122 1
126 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 8 111 129 119 123 108 (8)
127 NEW MEXICO 2 7 127 124 125 128 124 0
128 CHARLOTTE 2 8 126 127 128 127 125 0
129 HAWAII 2 8 125 128 126 130 128 0
130 AKRON 1 8 129 130 129 129 127 0
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 8 131 131 131 131 131 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 8 1 12 8 15 9 8 12 12 10 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA 8 1 35 11 40 22 28 15 14 15 0
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 2 39 20 36 20 34 17 16 16 2
4 FLORIDA ST 6 3 15 36 21 21 17 25 23 3
5 LOUISVILLE 6 3 19 35 22 27 23 1
6 WAKE FOREST 6 3 37 41 37 33 36 (3)
7 SYRACUSE 6 3 47 40 48 32 35 (3)
8 PITTSBURGH 5 4 48 58 51 55 48 1
9 DUKE 6 3 65 45 56 57 56 (1)
10 MIAMI FL 4 5 62 87 79 88 67 0
11 GEORGIA TECH 4 5 89 79 90 80 88 1
12 VIRGINIA 3 6 74 104 78 87 76 (1)
13 VIRGINIA TECH 2 7 82 120 94 111 94 0
14 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 7 100 118 105 114 98 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Toledo 13.1 Ball St 77.5%
Eastern Michigan 10.4 at Akron 71.8%
Ohio 1.1 at Miami OH 52.3%
at Western Michigan 0.9 Northern Illinois 51.9%
at Central Michigan 0.5 Buffalo 51.0%
at Bowling Green 1.6 Kent St 53.4%
at Memphis 8.0 Tulsa 66.8%
at Louisiana 3.6 Georgia Southern 57.6%
at Cincinnati 6.7 East Carolina 64.1%
at USC 29.4 Colorado > 99.99%
LSU 6.1 at Arkansas 62.8%
Texas A&M 2.2 at Auburn 54.6%
at Florida 6.1 South Carolina 62.8%
at Kentucky 20.8 Vanderbilt 93.7%
Alabama 12.0 at Mississippi 75.2%
Georgia 15.6 at Mississippi St 82.7%
at Tennessee 21.4 Missouri 94.9%
at UCLA 18.9 Arizona 89.7%
at Washington St 9.4 Arizona St 69.7%
at Oregon St 11.8 California 74.8%
at Oregon 12.7 Washington 76.7%
at Utah 22.3 Stanford 96.8%
at Baylor 4.9 Kansas St 60.3%
at Oklahoma St 4.9 Iowa St 60.3%
at Texas Tech 4.8 Kansas 60.1%
Oklahoma 9.1 at West Virginia 69.1%
at Texas 4.6 TCU 59.7%
at Troy 5.6 Army 61.8%
at Illinois 6.3 Purdue 63.2%
Wisconsin 1.1 at Iowa 52.3%
at Minnesota 17.6 Northwestern 86.9%
at Michigan 27.3 Nebraska > 99.99%
at Michigan St 18.3 Rutgers 88.4%
at Ohio St 39.6 Indiana > 99.99%
at Penn St 14.0 Maryland 79.4%
at Clemson 4.0 Louisville 58.4%
at Duke 6.9 Virginia Tech 64.5%
Miami FL 5.1 at Georgia Tech 60.7%
at North Carolina St 19.9 Boston College 91.8%
Florida St 5.9 at Syracuse 62.4%
Pittsburgh 4.8 at Virginia 60.1%
at Wake Forest 2.7 North Carolina 55.7%
at Arkansas St 16.5 Massachusetts 84.6%
Utah St 9.5 at Hawaii 69.9%
at San Diego St 0.1 San Jose St 50.2%
at Houston 18.4 Temple 88.6%
SMU 14.2 at South Florida 79.8%
UCF 1.6 at Tulane 53.4%
at Coastal Carolina 7.7 Southern Miss 66.2%
at Georgia St 14.8 LA Monroe 81.1%
Appalachian St 1.5 at Marshall 53.1%
James Madison 4.4 at Old Dominion 59.2%
at South Alabama 16.7 Texas St 85.0%
Notre Dame 22.8 at Navy 97.9%
Liberty 12.1 Connecticut 75.4%
at Western Kentucky 17.2 Rice 86.1%
at Air Force 26.6 New Mexico > 99.99%
at Middle Tennessee 12.3 Charlotte 75.8%
at UTSA 15.6 Louisiana Tech 82.7%
at UAB 0.5 North Texas 51.0%
Wyoming 7.4 at Colorado St 65.5%
Florida Atlantic 17.5 at Florida Intl 86.7%
Boise St 20.3 at Nevada 92.6%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 4 3 0.571
Total 5 3 0.625
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 1 6 0.143
Total 2 6 0.250
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 26 33 0.441
Previous 210 251 0.45553
Total 236 284 0.45385
Pct Correct Won Lost Pct
Week 37 23 0.617
Previous 339 132 0.720
Total 376 155 0.70810
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 11.9150 60
Previous 12.3745 474
Total 12.3228 534
Mean Square Error Avg Games
Week 240.8468 60
Previous 234.9654 375
Total 235.7767 435
Bias Avg Games
Week 1.6650 60
Previous (0.1289) 474
Total 0.0727 534
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Pct Correct 9 53
vs Spread 50 53
Absolute Error 7 53
Mean Square Error 6 53
Bias 3 53
Total 75
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St 1-0 0-1
vs Louisville 0-1 1-0
vs Clemson 1-0 0-1
at Wake Forest 1-0 0-1
at Connecticut 0-1 0-1
vs Duke 1-0 1-0
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville (1.00) 1.00
vs Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
at Wake Forest 1.00 (1.10)
at Connecticut (3.35) (1.10)
vs Duke 1.00 1.00
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 0.22 (4.50)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville 5.50 1.00
vs Clemson (1.00) (1.10)
at Wake Forest n/a (1.10)
at Connecticut (3.35) (1.10)
vs Duke (1.00) 1.00
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 7.00 (4.50)
Money Line Picks Units
Week 2.60
Previous (27.24)
Total (24.64)
Spread Picks Units
Week 1.00
Previous 3.60
Total 4.60
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4 (2.30) 1 3
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 0.90 2 1
Week 7 2.00 2 0
Week 8 1.90 3 1
Week 9 (1.20) 1 2
Week 10 1.00 1 0
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 4.60 20 14
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4 (1.00) 0 1
Week 5 (22.00) 3 1
Week 6 0.10 1 1
Week 7 (1.33) 2 2
Week 8 (1.50) 1 4
Week 9 (0.70) 1 2
Week 10 2.60 2 6
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (24.64) 15 24