FanPost

The Book 2022: Week 6 - October 8

Hard to believe but next week marks the middle week of the 2022 season. Every year, it starts and in the blink of an eye it's over.

With that in mind, BC hits the midpoint of its '22 campaign hosting Clemson at Alumni. The Tigers have won 11 straight in the series, with the last BC win coming in 2010, 16-10 behind a 37 carry, 143 yard performance from Montel Harris.

That CU team was just 4-4, on its way to a 6-7 finish in Dabo Swinney's second full season on the job.

BC is 6-9-1 against Clemson at home overall.

Of note, Boston College has never beaten a top 5 team at home. The Eagles are 2-33 all time vs the top 5, with both wins coming at Notre Dame. They are 0-17 at home, with the highest ranked win the season opening 14-13 victory over #7 Texas in 1976. The highest ranked team the Eagles have beaten in the month of October or later at home, was once again, Notre Dame, beating the 8th ranked Irish, 30-11 in 1994.

BC has streaks of 14 straight losses vs top 5 teams, 11 straight vs top 10 teams and 13 straight vs top 25 teams.

The Book doesn't like any of this to change, although it leans BC against the number, with Clemson favored by 19.2.

Boston College win totals

The Louisville win and all the other activity in college football, bumped the estimated BC win total on the season to 3.94. Still a ways to go to get over the 6 1/2 that Vegas put out in the preseason.


H/A Boston College Spread Win Probability
H Rutgers Boston College (6.80) 0.0000
A Boston College Virginia Tech (2.20) 0.0000
H Maine Boston College (32.59) 1.0000
A Boston College Florida St (15.60) 0.0000
H Louisville Boston College 12.20 1.0000
H Clemson Boston College 19.20 0.0270
A Boston College Wake Forest (15.40) 0.1259
A Boston College Connecticut 14.00 0.8514
H Duke Boston College (3.00) 0.5744
A Boston College North Carolina St (18.50) 0.0381
A Boston College Notre Dame (21.80) 0.0000
H Syracuse Boston College 6.70 0.3229
Win Total 3.94

On the national front, Alabama moves to the top spot supplanting Ohio State, Georgia and Michigan continue third and fourth.

Boston College's win over Louisville helped them climb out of the basement of the ACC, now 13th, just ahead of Virginia Tech who was drubbed by North Carolina.

The Eagles moved up 19 spots overall, now 92nd in the country, which is actually a bit higher than the majority of the other computer rating systems.

In terms of our picks, it was a better week overall, but still nothing to write home about. We also took a big hit when Fresno St tanked it at UConn. As mentioned last week, favorites between 20 and 25 points were 14-0 going into last week. Silly me though. While you generally speaking win for the season with that line of reasoning, you don't win a lot and the chances of taking just one hit and having all your profits washed away are pretty good...such is the case with us.

That leaves us building back again with the following selections.

This Week's Picks
My Pick ML or
Spread
Opponent
Utah (3.5) at UCLA
at Miami OH 3.0 Kent St
Notre Dame (3.0) BYU
East Carolina 143 at Tulane
Buffalo 110 at Bowling Green

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power- The Book Power Ratings Ranking, SOR - The Book Strength of Record to date, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin Rating, Massey - Massey Composite Computer poll ranking, ESPN FPI - ESPN Football Power Index ranking, AP - Associated Press writers poll, Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, New Book - New Book Ratings Ranking, Change from last week - Increase or decrease in last week's Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 ALABAMA 5 0 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 2 1
2 OHIO ST 5 0 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 1 (1)
3 GEORGIA 5 0 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 3 0
4 MICHIGAN 5 0 4 8 5 5 4 4 4 4 0
5 CLEMSON 5 0 6 7 6 4 5 5 5 6 2
6 USC 5 0 16 2 9 10 11 6 6 7 2
7 PENN ST 5 0 15 4 16 7 12 10 10 5 (2)
8 MISSISSIPPI 5 0 13 6 12 6 9 9 9 9 1
9 TENNESSEE 4 0 7 13 14 8 10 8 8 8 (3)
10 UTAH 4 1 5 27 4 14 7 11 11 11 8
11 MISSISSIPPI ST 4 1 14 15 18 11 17 23 23 10 11
12 OKLAHOMA ST 4 0 8 20 8 12 15 7 7 15 8
13 UCLA 5 0 37 11 32 18 31 18 19 12 4
14 TCU 4 0 18 14 17 9 13 17 18 13 11
15 OREGON 4 1 19 17 11 17 22 12 12 17 4
16 KANSAS ST 4 1 21 18 20 15 26 20 20 19 8
17 LSU 4 1 11 31 13 13 8 25 16 9
18 SYRACUSE 5 0 49 12 54 25 35 22 21 14 (3)
19 MARYLAND 4 1 26 16 34 24 21 27 11
20 KENTUCKY 4 1 22 21 23 22 24 13 13 18 (9)
21 CINCINNATI 4 1 20 33 22 23 20 24 23 6
22 KANSAS 5 0 61 9 48 20 53 19 17 20 7
23 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 24 32 26 19 25 14 14 21 (9)
24 MINNESOTA 4 1 17 37 24 29 14 25 (14)
25 WASHINGTON 4 1 30 28 21 28 23 21 24 29 (12)
26 WAKE FOREST 4 1 34 23 29 16 33 15 15 33 13
27 FLORIDA ST 4 1 33 26 40 27 27 22 (15)
28 BYU 4 1 45 19 42 35 47 16 16 24 4
29 ILLINOIS 4 1 36 30 37 26 38 28 13
30 TEXAS 3 2 9 43 7 21 6 31 13
31 NORTH CAROLINA 4 1 38 34 46 41 39 26 14
32 COASTAL CAROLINA 5 0 75 10 76 47 80 30 4
33 WASHINGTON ST 4 1 48 22 33 37 55 32 11
34 OKLAHOMA 3 2 10 47 10 30 19 41 (18)
35 ARKANSAS 3 2 27 41 28 33 41 25 38 (14)
36 TEXAS A&M 3 2 25 49 25 40 36 35 (13)
37 MEMPHIS 4 1 63 25 64 46 58 39 11
38 IOWA 3 2 31 46 36 42 42 47 (7)
39 FLORIDA 3 2 35 45 30 50 40 40 11
40 AIR FORCE 4 1 54 39 53 54 62 36 7
41 OREGON ST 3 2 42 42 35 52 49 37 (8)
42 BAYLOR 3 2 23 60 19 31 16 22 50 (14)
43 LIBERTY 4 1 70 24 75 49 64 43 12
44 NOTRE DAME 2 2 12 70 15 34 18 42 (3)
45 PURDUE 3 2 28 56 38 36 29 45 15
46 JAMES MADISON 4 0 74 29 56 32 63 44 7
47 TULANE 4 1 59 38 63 44 52 34 10
48 UCF 3 1 40 51 39 48 28 48 (8)
49 AUBURN 3 2 50 44 41 45 48 46 (12)
50 TEXAS TECH 3 2 43 55 45 39 46 52 (12)
51 SOUTH ALABAMA 4 1 72 35 71 51 65 55 7
52 IOWA ST 3 2 41 57 27 38 30 53 (17)
53 PITTSBURGH 3 2 46 58 51 56 43 49 (19)
54 DUKE 4 1 81 36 62 53 59 56 11
55 SOUTH CAROLINA 3 2 47 59 59 60 56 57 4
56 UNLV 4 1 89 40 80 64 85 67 7
57 APPALACHIAN ST 3 2 56 61 43 43 51 51 9
58 CALIFORNIA 3 2 64 54 52 57 61 62 (12)
59 BOISE ST 3 2 55 67 49 78 67 63 20
60 SAN JOSE ST 3 1 76 48 66 59 83 58 18
61 WISCONSIN 2 3 29 85 31 61 37 65 (10)
62 UTSA 3 2 62 64 77 66 73 69 18
63 EAST CAROLINA 3 2 58 66 67 69 66 54 18
64 INDIANA 3 2 82 50 84 71 79 64 (15)
65 ARIZONA 3 2 80 52 69 77 77 59 11
66 MICHIGAN ST 2 3 39 80 50 65 32 71 (12)
67 MIAMI FL 2 2 32 86 44 70 34 61 (5)
68 TROY 3 2 71 63 73 58 71 66 14
69 LOUISVILLE 2 3 44 83 55 68 50 60 (13)
70 TOLEDO 3 2 67 69 68 79 76 68 15
71 WESTERN KENTUCKY 3 2 66 73 78 73 54 74 (19)
72 SMU 2 2 53 78 58 55 44 70 (1)
73 MISSOURI 2 3 52 82 57 62 57 79 1
74 RUTGERS 3 2 85 65 96 80 84 76 (10)
75 VANDERBILT 3 2 104 53 105 76 93 72 (5)
76 WEST VIRGINIA 2 3 51 94 47 67 45 77 (8)
77 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 3 2 96 68 102 83 88 82 (16)
78 HOUSTON 2 3 65 84 70 63 68 80 (9)
79 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 2 95 72 88 82 87 73 (12)
80 NEBRASKA 2 3 57 93 72 89 74 75 19
81 MARSHALL 3 2 83 76 81 74 69 78 7
82 RICE 3 2 110 62 106 81 104 81 15
83 TULSA 2 3 68 89 65 75 72 83 (6)
84 GEORGIA TECH 2 3 88 77 87 86 89 91 18
85 UAB 2 2 73 90 74 72 60 84 (12)
86 WYOMING 3 3 109 74 101 85 107 86 (14)
87 SOUTHERN MISS 2 2 94 81 90 87 82 85 3
88 VIRGINIA 2 3 84 95 85 84 78 87 (13)
89 NORTH TEXAS 3 3 103 79 111 94 101 89 19
90 EASTERN MICHIGAN 3 2 116 71 116 113 119 95 10
91 SAN DIEGO ST 2 3 90 92 92 98 102 93 (8)
92 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 3 78 105 99 100 95 88 19
93 KENT ST 2 3 98 88 82 88 94 99 10
94 UTEP 3 3 115 75 120 116 118 94 13
95 LOUISIANA 2 3 87 108 79 91 91 105 (9)
96 STANFORD 1 3 69 113 61 90 70 97 (3)
97 VIRGINIA TECH 2 3 91 104 103 102 98 90 (13)
98 ARIZONA ST 1 4 60 118 60 96 75 96 (2)
99 MIAMI OH 2 3 99 103 91 95 105 100 (10)
100 WESTERN MICHIGAN 2 3 102 100 95 108 108 98 10
101 OLD DOMINION 2 3 108 91 110 99 106 92 (14)
102 BUFFALO 2 3 105 98 100 93 103 110 13
103 ARKANSAS ST 2 3 107 106 104 92 90 106 17
104 FRESNO ST 1 3 77 117 86 104 92 102 (13)
105 ARMY 1 3 79 116 93 106 81 111 (11)
106 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 2 4 97 112 97 110 86 103 (14)
107 NEVADA 2 3 113 101 115 114 115 114 (3)
108 BOWLING GREEN 2 3 117 96 121 103 123 101 11
109 BALL ST 2 3 112 107 109 117 117 104 12
110 NAVY 1 3 101 115 94 97 109 108 (5)
111 OHIO 2 3 119 99 113 112 121 107 (13)
112 LA MONROE 2 3 122 87 123 107 116 112 (17)
113 NEW MEXICO 2 3 118 102 112 115 111 117 (12)
114 NORTHWESTERN 1 4 86 121 83 105 97 113 0
115 GEORGIA ST 1 4 92 120 108 109 96 109 9
116 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1 4 93 122 89 101 99 115 (10)
117 LOUISIANA TECH 1 3 114 114 114 118 100 121 1
118 UTAH ST 1 4 106 119 107 111 112 119 (6)
119 TEMPLE 2 3 121 110 119 120 120 122 (10)
120 TEXAS ST 2 3 124 109 125 121 114 120 (4)
121 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 1 4 100 126 98 119 110 118 (8)
122 CONNECTICUT 2 4 125 111 124 122 125 123 5
123 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 4 111 124 118 123 113 116 (6)
124 FLORIDA INTL 2 2 131 97 130 127 131 126 5
125 COLORADO 0 5 120 131 117 124 122 125 (3)
126 AKRON 1 4 127 123 128 125 127 124 (3)
127 COLORADO ST 0 4 123 128 122 128 126 127 1
128 HAWAII 1 4 128 125 127 129 128 130 2
129 CHARLOTTE 1 5 126 130 126 126 124 128 (4)
130 NEW MEXICO ST 1 5 129 129 129 131 130 131 (4)
131 MASSACHUSETTS 1 4 130 127 131 130 129 129 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES NEW
BOOK
CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 5 0 6 7 6 4 5 5 5 6 0
2 SYRACUSE 5 0 49 12 54 25 35 22 21 14 2
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 24 32 26 19 25 14 14 21 0
4 WAKE FOREST 4 1 34 23 29 16 33 15 15 33 2
5 FLORIDA ST 4 1 33 26 40 27 27 22 (3)
6 NORTH CAROLINA 4 1 38 34 46 41 39 26 1
7 PITTSBURGH 3 2 46 58 51 56 43 49 (2)
8 DUKE 4 1 81 36 62 53 59 56 2
9 MIAMI FL 2 2 32 86 44 70 34 61 0
10 LOUISVILLE 2 3 44 83 55 68 50 60 (2)
11 GEORGIA TECH 2 3 88 77 87 86 89 91 2
12 VIRGINIA 2 3 84 95 85 84 78 87 (1)
13 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 3 78 105 99 100 95 88 1
14 VIRGINIA TECH 2 3 91 104 103 102 98 90 (2)
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at UCF 7.5 SMU 69%
Nebraska 4.7 at Rutgers 62%
at Memphis 2.8 Houston 57%
at Nevada 8.4 Colorado St 71%
at Alabama 24.7 Texas A&M 92%
at Florida 3.5 Missouri 59%
at Georgia 23.2 Auburn 91%
at Kentucky 8.7 South Carolina 72%
at LSU 0.1 Tennessee 50%
at Mississippi St 7.2 Arkansas 69%
Mississippi 22.5 at Vanderbilt 90%
Oregon 15.5 at Arizona 82%
Washington 6.8 at Arizona St 68%
Oregon St 6.9 at Stanford 68%
Utah 9.2 at UCLA 73%
at USC 11.1 Washington St 76%
Kansas St 2.4 at Iowa St 57%
TCU 12.2 at Kansas 78%
Texas 0.7 Oklahoma 52%
at Oklahoma St 12.2 Texas Tech 78%
at Wake Forest 15.1 Army 82%
Liberty 23.6 at Massachusetts 91%
at Illinois 1.4 Iowa 54%
Wisconsin 12.9 at Northwestern 79%
at Maryland 2.9 Purdue 58%
Ohio St 21.0 at Michigan St 89%
Clemson 19.2 at Boston College 88%
at Georgia Tech 1.0 Duke 53%
North Carolina 3.9 at Miami FL 60%
at North Carolina St 5.5 Florida St 64%
at Pittsburgh 15.5 Virginia Tech 83%
Louisville 8.9 at Virginia 73%
Air Force 10.0 at Utah St 74%
at Boise St 8.9 Fresno St 73%
at Tulane 1.8 East Carolina 56%
at Cincinnati 27.7 South Florida 94%
at Western Michigan 8.1 Eastern Michigan 70%
Buffalo 2.1 at Bowling Green 56%
at Georgia St 3.3 Georgia Southern 59%
James Madison 5.3 at Arkansas St 64%
Coastal Carolina 13.5 LA Monroe 81%
Appalachian St 19.4 Texas St 88%
at Troy 6.6 Southern Miss 67%
Michigan 23.2 at Indiana 91%
at Ohio 9.1 Akron 73%
Tulsa 4.8 at Navy 63%
at Central Michigan 7.5 Ball St 69%
Toledo 4.9 at Northern Illinois 63%
at Miami OH 2.5 Kent St 57%
at UAB 8.8 Middle Tennessee 72%
at UTSA 2.8 Western Kentucky 58%
Wyoming 2.6 at New Mexico 57%
Connecticut 8.5 at Florida Intl 72%
at Louisiana Tech 2.6 UTEP 57%
Notre Dame 8.5 BYU 72%
at San Diego St 20.0 Hawaii 88%
at San Jose St 4.9 UNLV 63%
BC Opponents Winners spread
vs Rutgers 0-1 0-1
at Virginia Tech 1-0 0-1
at Florida St 1-0 0-1
vs Louisville 0-1 1-0
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
BC Opponents Winners Spread
vs Rutgers (2.78) (1.10)
at Virginia Tech 1.00 (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville (1.00) 1.00
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss (1.78) (2.30)
BC Opponents ML Edge Spread Edge
vs Rutgers 2.50 (1.10)
at Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
at Florida St 1.00 (1.10)
vs Louisville 5.50 1.00
vs Clemson
at Wake Forest
at Connecticut
vs Duke
at North Carolina St
at Notre Dame
vs Syracuse
Profit/Loss 8.00 (2.30)
Money Line Picks Units
Week (22.00)
Previous (1.81)
Total (23.81)
Spread Picks Units
Week 1.00
Previous (1.00)
Total 0.00
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 1.00 1 0
Week 1 0.80 3 2
Week 2 0.90 2 1
Week 3 (1.40) 3 4
Week 4 (2.30) 1 3
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total 0.00 11 10
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 4.00 1 0
Week 1 (3.00) 0 3
Week 2 3.54 3 1
Week 3 (5.35) 1 3
Week 4 (1.00) 0 1
Week 5 (22.00) 3 1
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Bowls
CFP
Total (23.81) 8 9

New Book
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 30 27 0.526
Previous 95 109 0.466
Total 125 136 0.47893
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 39 18 0.684
Previous 155 55 0.738
Total 194 73 0.72659
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.2509 57
Previous 13.2333 208
Total 13.0220 265
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Winners T16 50
vs Spread T23 50
Absolute Error 26 50

The Book Original

Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 27 28 0.491
Previous 83 121 0.407
Total 110 149 0.42471
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 36 19 0.655
Previous 160 50 0.762
Total 196 69 0.73962
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.2509 57
Previous 12.6699 208
Total 12.5798 265
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Winners 9 50
vs Spread 46 50
Absolute Error 8 50