The college football regular season breaks down neatly into thirds covering September, October and November. With that in mind, here's a look at numbers related to power ratings, win totals, under and overachievers, strength of schedule, etc, from October 2022, with a deeper look at Boston College, following the same guidelines we used in September.
Are the Eagles the most underachieving team in the country?
By the metrics we use to measure this, the answer is yes. Using the Book's power ratings as our guidelines, we look at the pre-season ratings and where teams are now and take the delta from start to current. The team with the lowest value has under performed beyond those pre-season expectations. In the moment, that means your Eagles are #131 or dead last.
Here is the list of both over and under achievers year to date, along with how much the drop in power rating has impacted their national rating and for fun, throw in how much money you would have won or lost betting on them.
Not surprisingly, you win on the field more than expected, you make money too!
Of note, BC's game against Duke this week pits the 3rd ranked over vs the last ranked under achieving teams in the nation.
Boston College Win Totals
The Eagles loss to Connecticut eliminated any possibility that BC could cover the 6 1/2 win total laid out in Vegas in the pre-season. Our number for BC started at 5.64 which was the betting favorite (for BC to go under at -135). Our current BC win total prediction is down to just 2.71 wins. Now NC State is scuffling a bit with Devin Leary out and Syracuse may not be quite what they had showed earlier, but both Duke and Notre Dame are improving. It is questionable whether the Eagles can notch even that third win, forget about any more.
|A||Boston College||Virginia Tech||(2.20)||0.0000|
|A||Boston College||Florida St||(15.60)||0.0000|
|A||Boston College||Wake Forest||(19.60)||0.0000|
|A||Boston College||North Carolina St||(18.30)||0.1150|
|A||Boston College||Notre Dame||(26.20)||0.0000|
Good stats vs Bad Stats
As you might expect, the statistics that backup Boston College's 2-6 season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball are not pretty. The defense on the other hand, isn't as bad as one might expect, especially in light of the woes on offense.
Most of the defensive statistics (using only games vs FBS teams), have the Eagles in the 40-50 range nationally, more than respectable.
Not a whole lot of good stats, but at least look at a few.
|Kickoff Return||Offense||20||22.71 yds|
|Opp PAT||Defense||4||3 missed|
|Opp 4th Down Conversions||Defense||7||27%|
|Scoring Offense||Offense||125||14.3 ppg|
|Rush Offense||Offense||130||61.29 ypg|
|Yards per carry||Offense||129||2.07 ypc|
|Rush att per game||Offense||121||29.57|
|Total Offense||Offense||120||292.1 ypg|
|Punt returns||Offense||115||3.78 ypr|
|Field Goal Pct||Offense||117||60%|
|First Downs||Offense||120||15.7 pg|
|Turnover Margin||Offense||129||-1.57 pg|
|Fumbles Recovered||Offense||126||1 of 4 forced|
|3rd down conversions||Offense||119||28.71%|
|TFL yards allowed||Offense||129||310 yds|
|Opp Redzone conversions||Defense||117||92.86%|
|Opp Kick Off Returns||Defense||127||28.64 yds|
Strength of Schedule
Boston College has played an upper middle of the pack schedule year to date and finishes their schedule with arguably a stronger slate than they already played. The Eagles have the 53rd rated SOS to date and 37th over the final month of the regular season.
Of note are those teams that have looked good to date, but with the meat of their schedule in front of them such as Ole Miss or teams that have struggled and yet still have a gauntlet to get thru such as Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Colorado.
|Top SOS - to Date||Top SOS - Remaining|
|Bottom SOS - to Date||Bottom SOS - Remaining|
|130||JAMES MADISON||130||FRESNO ST|
|129||NEW MEXICO ST||129||NEW MEXICO ST|
|127||MASSACHUSETTS||127||SAN JOSE ST|
|126||SOUTH ALABAMA||126||JAMES MADISON|
|124||MIAMI OH||124||EASTERN MICHIGAN|
|Bottom P5 SOS - to Date||Bottom P5 SOS - Remaining|
|79||MIAMI FL||69||TEXAS A&M|
|53||BOSTON COLLEGE||37||BOSTON COLLEGE|
What is the strongest conference?
Yes, the SEC leads, but it's the Big 12 and not the Big 10 that is second, using the central mean methodology. The ACC lingers at the bottom of the Power 5, still a full three points ahead of the AAC. The ACC Atlantic though, sits ahead of the Big 10 West, PAC 12 and ACC Coastal, with the Coastal considered the weakest of all the P5 divisions.
|CONFERENCE RANKINGS 2022|
|CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2022|
|3||Big 10 East||131.21|
|6||Big 10 West||128.19|
|10||Sun Belt East||115.21|
|12||Sun Belt West||111.95|
|13||Mountain West Mountain||111.63|
|14||Mountain West West||110.87|
|16||Mid American West||109.60|
|17||Mid American East||109.19|