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The Book 2022: October recap - numbers, numbers, numbers

The college football regular season breaks down neatly into thirds covering September, October and November. With that in mind, here's a look at numbers related to power ratings, win totals, under and overachievers, strength of schedule, etc, from October 2022, with a deeper look at Boston College, following the same guidelines we used in September.

Boston College

Are the Eagles the most underachieving team in the country?

By the metrics we use to measure this, the answer is yes. Using the Book's power ratings as our guidelines, we look at the pre-season ratings and where teams are now and take the delta from start to current. The team with the lowest value has under performed beyond those pre-season expectations. In the moment, that means your Eagles are #131 or dead last.

Here is the list of both over and under achievers year to date, along with how much the drop in power rating has impacted their national rating and for fun, throw in how much money you would have won or lost betting on them.

Not surprisingly, you win on the field more than expected, you make money too!

Of note, BC's game against Duke this week pits the 3rd ranked over vs the last ranked under achieving teams in the nation.

Overachievers Delta Rank
Delta
Profit
Margin
1 ILLINOIS 14.17 48 11.00
2 TENNESSEE 12.35 16 10.40
3 DUKE 11.66 49 8.81
4 SOUTH ALABAMA 10.99 47 3.59
5 KANSAS 9.52 35 4.81
6 CONNECTICUT 7.84 11 16.90
7 TCU 7.57 30 12.65
8 OHIO ST 6.78 2 3.60
9 TULANE 6.69 29 10.00
10 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 6.26 25 15.45
Underachievers Delta Rank
Delta
Profit
Margin
131 BOSTON COLLEGE (10.04) (39) (10.57)
130 COLORADO ST (9.99) (28) (7.10)
129 AUBURN (9.36) (29) (6.50)
128 COLORADO (9.18) (28) (7.00)
127 MIAMI FL (9.14) (33) (61.07)
126 PITTSBURGH (8.38) (26) (14.69)
125 BYU (8.18) (28) (8.73)
124 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (7.75) (24) (13.66)
123 NEVADA (7.46) (18) (8.23)
122 NEBRASKA (7.12) (21) (30.06)


Boston College Win Totals

The Eagles loss to Connecticut eliminated any possibility that BC could cover the 6 1/2 win total laid out in Vegas in the pre-season. Our number for BC started at 5.64 which was the betting favorite (for BC to go under at -135). Our current BC win total prediction is down to just 2.71 wins. Now NC State is scuffling a bit with Devin Leary out and Syracuse may not be quite what they had showed earlier, but both Duke and Notre Dame are improving. It is questionable whether the Eagles can notch even that third win, forget about any more.

H/A Visitor Home Spread Win Probability
H Rutgers Boston College (6.80) 0.0000
A Boston College Virginia Tech (2.20) 0.0000
H Maine Boston College (32.59) 1.0000
A Boston College Florida St (15.60) 0.0000
H Louisville Boston College 12.20 1.0000
H Clemson Boston College 19.20 0.0000
A Boston College Wake Forest (19.60) 0.0000
A Boston College Connecticut 9.10 0.0000
H Duke Boston College 6.10 0.3730
A Boston College North Carolina St (18.30) 0.1150
A Boston College Notre Dame (26.20) 0.0000
H Syracuse Boston College 13.10 0.2250
Win Total 2.71

Good stats vs Bad Stats

As you might expect, the statistics that backup Boston College's 2-6 season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball are not pretty. The defense on the other hand, isn't as bad as one might expect, especially in light of the woes on offense.

Most of the defensive statistics (using only games vs FBS teams), have the Eagles in the 40-50 range nationally, more than respectable.

Not a whole lot of good stats, but at least look at a few.

Good Stats Off/Def Rank Number
Kickoff Return Offense 20 22.71 yds
Opp PAT Defense 4 3 missed
Opp 4th Down Conversions Defense 7 27%
Bad Stats Off/Def Rank Number
Scoring Offense Offense 125 14.3 ppg
Rush Offense Offense 130 61.29 ypg
Yards per carry Offense 129 2.07 ypc
Rush att per game Offense 121 29.57
Total Offense Offense 120 292.1 ypg
Punt returns Offense 115 3.78 ypr
Field Goal Pct Offense 117 60%
First Downs Offense 120 15.7 pg
Turnover Margin Offense 129 -1.57 pg
Fumbles Recovered Offense 126 1 of 4 forced
3rd down conversions Offense 119 28.71%
Redzone attempts Offense 124 16
Sacks allowed Offense 120 26
TFL yards allowed Offense 129 310 yds
Opp Redzone conversions Defense 117 92.86%
Opp Kick Off Returns Defense 127 28.64 yds

Strength of Schedule

Boston College has played an upper middle of the pack schedule year to date and finishes their schedule with arguably a stronger slate than they already played. The Eagles have the 53rd rated SOS to date and 37th over the final month of the regular season.

Of note are those teams that have looked good to date, but with the meat of their schedule in front of them such as Ole Miss or teams that have struggled and yet still have a gauntlet to get thru such as Northwestern, Nebraska, Rutgers and Colorado.

Top SOS - to Date Top SOS - Remaining
1 AUBURN 1 MISSISSIPPI
2 FLORIDA 2 NORTHWESTERN
3 TEXAS A&M 3 INDIANA
4 ARKANSAS 4 BAYLOR
5 MISSISSIPPI ST 5 MARYLAND
6 MICHIGAN ST 6 NEBRASKA
7 TEXAS 7 RUTGERS
8 IOWA 8 AUBURN
9 KANSAS ST 9 COLORADO
10 PENN ST 10 KANSAS
Bottom SOS - to Date Bottom SOS - Remaining
131 FLORIDA INTL 131 UNLV
130 JAMES MADISON 130 FRESNO ST
129 NEW MEXICO ST 129 NEW MEXICO ST
128 UAB 128 BYU
127 MASSACHUSETTS 127 SAN JOSE ST
126 SOUTH ALABAMA 126 JAMES MADISON
125 LOUISIANA 125 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
124 MIAMI OH 124 EASTERN MICHIGAN
123 TOLEDO 123 ARKANSAS ST
122 LIBERTY 122 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Bottom P5 SOS - to Date Bottom P5 SOS - Remaining
81 DUKE 80 VIRGINIA TECH
79 MIAMI FL 69 TEXAS A&M
71 MINNESOTA 68 UTAH
68 RUTGERS 67 DUKE
67 WAKE FOREST 65 VIRGINIA
66 MICHIGAN 64 WASHINGTON ST
65 UCLA 63 NORTH CAROLINA
62 WASHINGTON 62 PENN ST
61 VIRGINIA TECH 61 PITTSBURGH
60 NORTH CAROLINA 60 PURDUE
53 BOSTON COLLEGE 37 BOSTON COLLEGE

What is the strongest conference?

Yes, the SEC leads, but it's the Big 12 and not the Big 10 that is second, using the central mean methodology. The ACC lingers at the bottom of the Power 5, still a full three points ahead of the AAC. The ACC Atlantic though, sits ahead of the Big 10 West, PAC 12 and ACC Coastal, with the Coastal considered the weakest of all the P5 divisions.

CONFERENCE RANKINGS 2022
1 SEC 132.72
2 Big 12 131.92
3 Big 10 129.11
4 Pac 12 126.06
5 ACC 123.25
6 AAC 120.18
7 Sun Belt 113.95
8 Independent 112.16
9 Mountain West 111.26
10 Conference USA 110.14
11 Mid American 109.45

CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2022
1 SEC West 134.41
2 Big 12 131.92
3 Big 10 East 131.21
4 SEC East 130.44
5 ACC Atlantic 129.19
6 Big 10 West 128.19
7 Pac 12 126.06
8 ACC Coastal 120.58
9 AAC 120.18
10 Sun Belt East 115.21
11 Independent 112.16
12 Sun Belt West 111.95
13 Mountain West Mountain 111.63
14 Mountain West West 110.87
15 Conference USA 110.14
16 Mid American West 109.60
17 Mid American East 109.19