Hardly a surprise, but both favorites, Alabama and Georgia, handily win their CFP semi final matchups to set up a rematch of their SEC Championship game just a month ago, won by the Tide, 41-27. The game will mark the third time in the BCS/CFP era where two teams from the same conference will play for the national championship, all three from the SEC and all three involving Alabama (vs LSU - 2011, vs Georgia - 2018).
Despite the beating that Bama gave the Dawgs in inflicting their only loss of the season, Georgia once again is favored in the game, this time opening at 2 1/2 and currently sitting at 3. The Book also has Georgia as a favorite, at -4.8 points.
Why is this the case? As we discussed in the bowl week post, sports books use computer models too and Georgia was a 6 1/2 point favorite in the SEC title game. The Tide win closed that gap, but if anything the two semi final games only served to widen it back a bit, with Georgia's win over Michigan netting them nearly a full point more than Alabama's over Cincinnati.
| Season | Matchup | Spread | Money Line |
| 2016 | Clemson vs Alabama | (1.10) | (2.10) |
| 2017 | Alabama vs Georgia | 1.00 | (1.00) |
| 2018 | Clemson vs Alabama | 1.00 | 1.90 |
| 2019 | Clemson vs LSU | (1.10) | (1.00) |
| 2020 | Alabama vs Ohio State | (1.10) | 1.00 |
| Total | (1.30) | (1.20) |
Our model would not have a bet on the spread or the money line this year, based on picking game where the model shows the edge that's been used to make the profits shown below. Based on the limited edge though, both the ML and the spread would go to the Dawgs.
As for the 2021 bowl season, pretty much as anticipated, it didn't go well. Losses against both the spread and the money line and the driver seemed to be when the Power 5 teams got involved. It will need more analysis, but games involving only Group of Five teams went 7-4 vs the spread for plus 2.6 units and plus 0.9 vs the money line and needless to say tanked in Power 5 games. Even if we count all the games for the bowls that could have worked in the model, we are still up a more than healthy, 52.11 units for the season.
Back next week with our final rankings.
Enjoy the game and Go Eagles!
Model Results through Bowl Games of January 5, 2022
| FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | WIN PROBABILITY |
| Georgia | 4.8 | Alabama | 63% |
|
Vs The Vegas Spread |
Won | Lost | Pct. |
| Week | 15 | 20 | 0.429 |
| Previous | 334 | 380 | 0.468 |
| Total | 349 | 400 | 0.46595 |
| Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
| Week | 18 | 19 | 0.486 |
| Previous | 510 | 221 | 0.698 |
| Total | 528 | 240 | 0.68750 |
| Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
| Week | 17.3000 | 37 | |
| Previous | 12.9959 | 676 | |
| Total | 13.2193 | 713 | |
| Prediction Tracker | Rank | # of Polls | |
| Straight Up | 45 | 54 | |
| vs Spread | 49 | 54 | |
| Absolute Error | 20 | 54 |
| Money Line Picks | Units | ||
| Week | (1.00) | ||
| Previous | 43.61 | ||
| Total | 42.61 | ||
| Spread Picks | Units | ||
| Week | (1.50) | ||
| Previous | 11.00 | ||
| Total | 9.50 | ||
| Spread By Week | Profit | Win | Loss |
| Week 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 1 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Week 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Week 3 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Week 4 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Week 6 | (1.10) | 0 | 1 |
| Week 7 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Week 8 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Week 9 | (2.20) | 0 | 2 |
| Week 10 | 0.90 | 2 | 1 |
| Week 11 | 0.80 | 3 | 2 |
| Week 12 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 13 | 3.70 | 7 | 3 |
| Week 14 | (0.10) | 1 | 1 |
| Week 15 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bowls | (1.50) | 4 | 5 |
| Total | 9.50 | 26 | 15 |
| Money Line by Week | Profit | Win | Loss |
| Week 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 4 |
| Week 2 | 8.75 | 2 | 3 |
| Week 3 | (2.00) | 1 | 7 |
| Week 4 | 0.10 | 1 | 3 |
| Week 5 | 6.60 | 3 | 3 |
| Week 6 | 11.75 | 3 | 4 |
| Week 7 | 2.00 | 1 | 2 |
| Week 8 | 1.25 | 1 | 3 |
| Week 9 | 2.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Week 10 | 7.74 | 3 | 2 |
| Week 11 | (1.00) | 0 | 1 |
| Week 12 | 2.50 | 1 | 3 |
| Week 13 | 0.52 | 1 | 3 |
| Week 14 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 15 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Bowls | (1.00) | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 42.61 | 19 | 40 |
