FanPost

The Book 2021: CFP National Championship Game

Hardly a surprise, but both favorites, Alabama and Georgia, handily win their CFP semi final matchups to set up a rematch of their SEC Championship game just a month ago, won by the Tide, 41-27. The game will mark the third time in the BCS/CFP era where two teams from the same conference will play for the national championship, all three from the SEC and all three involving Alabama (vs LSU - 2011, vs Georgia - 2018).

Despite the beating that Bama gave the Dawgs in inflicting their only loss of the season, Georgia once again is favored in the game, this time opening at 2 1/2 and currently sitting at 3. The Book also has Georgia as a favorite, at -4.8 points.

Why is this the case? As we discussed in the bowl week post, sports books use computer models too and Georgia was a 6 1/2 point favorite in the SEC title game. The Tide win closed that gap, but if anything the two semi final games only served to widen it back a bit, with Georgia's win over Michigan netting them nearly a full point more than Alabama's over Cincinnati.

Season Matchup Spread Money Line
2016 Clemson vs Alabama (1.10) (2.10)
2017 Alabama vs Georgia 1.00 (1.00)
2018 Clemson vs Alabama 1.00 1.90
2019 Clemson vs LSU (1.10) (1.00)
2020 Alabama vs Ohio State (1.10) 1.00
Total (1.30) (1.20)

Our model would not have a bet on the spread or the money line this year, based on picking game where the model shows the edge that's been used to make the profits shown below. Based on the limited edge though, both the ML and the spread would go to the Dawgs.

As for the 2021 bowl season, pretty much as anticipated, it didn't go well. Losses against both the spread and the money line and the driver seemed to be when the Power 5 teams got involved. It will need more analysis, but games involving only Group of Five teams went 7-4 vs the spread for plus 2.6 units and plus 0.9 vs the money line and needless to say tanked in Power 5 games. Even if we count all the games for the bowls that could have worked in the model, we are still up a more than healthy, 52.11 units for the season.

Back next week with our final rankings.

Enjoy the game and Go Eagles!

Model Results through Bowl Games of January 5, 2022

FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
Georgia 4.8 Alabama 63%

Vs The Vegas Spread

Won Lost Pct.
Week 15 20 0.429
Previous 334 380 0.468
Total 349 400 0.46595
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 18 19 0.486
Previous 510 221 0.698
Total 528 240 0.68750
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 17.3000 37
Previous 12.9959 676
Total 13.2193 713
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 45 54
vs Spread 49 54
Absolute Error 20 54
Money Line Picks Units
Week (1.00)
Previous 43.61
Total 42.61
Spread Picks Units
Week (1.50)
Previous 11.00
Total 9.50
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 2.00 2 0
Week 2 1.00 1 0
Week 3 2.00 2 0
Week 4 0.00 0 0
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 (1.10) 0 1
Week 7 1.00 1 0
Week 8 2.00 2 0
Week 9 (2.20) 0 2
Week 10 0.90 2 1
Week 11 0.80 3 2
Week 12 0.00 0 0
Week 13 3.70 7 3
Week 14 (0.10) 1 1
Week 15 0.00 0 0
Bowls (1.50) 4 5
Total 9.50 26 15
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 3.00 1 4
Week 2 8.75 2 3
Week 3 (2.00) 1 7
Week 4 0.10 1 3
Week 5 6.60 3 3
Week 6 11.75 3 4
Week 7 2.00 1 2
Week 8 1.25 1 3
Week 9 2.40 1 1
Week 10 7.74 3 2
Week 11 (1.00) 0 1
Week 12 2.50 1 3
Week 13 0.52 1 3
Week 14 0.00 0 0
Week 15 0.00 0 0
Bowls (1.00) 0 1
Total 42.61 19 40