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The Book 2021: Final Rankings

By on Jan 14, 2022, 10:21am EST +

The Georgia Bulldogs are your 2021 college football national champions after ending a 41 year drought with a 4th quarter rally to down fellow SEC member and defending national champion, Alabama in the title game.

Georgia finished number one in both our power rating and strength of record rating as well as number one in almost all of the computer polls out there.

The Book had Alabama second, followed by Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Baylor, Oklahoma and Utah rounding out the top 10.

The Book sat on the winning side against both the spread and the money line, picking the Dawgs to win by 4.8 points and although we wound up finishing with the worst record we've ever had against the Vegas line, feeling pretty good in general about strides that were made in progressing our model.

Using our new selection criteria, we showed a profit of 9.5 units on the season against the spread for a modest 23.17% ROI while against the money line, we were 42.61 to the good, for a 72.22% ROI, overall netting 52.11 units for a 52.11% ROI.

Over and Under Achievers

At season's inception, we had Boston College finishing 2nd in the ACC Atlantic with an 8-4 record, 4-4 in conference. Clearly, that didn't pan out and the Eagles have to go on the overall list of underachievers for 2021.

Boston College finished 87th in the nation, 4.02 points below their opening power rating. The Eagles also had no wins over any team considered an overachiever (i.e. points above their opening power rating). By those measurements, BC's best win was at Georgia Tech, also an underachiever (-4.82).

In terms of the national picture, interesting that Georgia was one of the largest overachievers of the season, while Alabama was just slightly below their preseason projection.

Below you will see our list of top over and under achievers. Delta is the power rating points change from the preseason poll. Rank delta is the change in overall rank (1-130) from the preseason poll.

Overachievers Delta Rank
Delta
1 WESTERN KENTUCKY 17.76 64
2 UTAH STATE 15.29 80
3 MICHIGAN 14.39 25
4 GEORGIA 13.86 4
5 OLD DOMINION 13.77 28
6 BAYLOR 12.26 35
7 MICHIGAN ST 10.99 54
8 UTEP 9.42 28
9 ARKANSAS 8.87 22
10 PITTSBURGH 8.73 25
Underachievers Delta Rank
Delta
130 INDIANA (18.11) (73)
129 FLORIDA INTL (17.60) (10)
128 TCU (14.61) (54)
127 TEMPLE (13.87) (14)
126 USC (12.86) (64)
125 FLORIDA (12.33) (58)
124 DUKE (12.26) (22)
123 WASHINGTON (12.21) (66)
122 NORTHWESTERN (12.19) (59)
121 BUFFALO (12.09) (37)
Noteables Delta Rank
Delta
3 MICHIGAN 14.39 25
35 CINCINNATI 5.15 15
70 ALABAMA (1.26) (1)
87 BOSTON COLLEGE (4.02) (27)

Strength of Schedule

Below you'll find our final strength of schedule rankings. These are based on the average of the power ratings of the opponents played. Of course, Georgia, Alabama and Michigan all benefitted from playing extra games in the CFP to bolster that final rating, while the bottom 10 teams are all group of five teams.

Boston College who was low on this list prior to the end of the year, only got worse, finishing with the worst strength of schedule of any P5 team at #102.

Top SOS
1 INDIANA
2 ALABAMA
3 OKLAHOMA ST
4 LSU
5 NEBRASKA
6 GEORGIA
7 STANFORD
8 TEXAS
9 MICHIGAN
10 MICHIGAN ST
Bottom SOS
130 COASTAL CAROLINA
129 UTEP
128 CHARLOTTE
127 TOLEDO
126 SOUTHERN MIS
125 BUFFALO
124 SOUTH ALABAMA
123 NORTH TEXAS
122 OHIO
121 OLD DOMINION
Bottom P5 SOS
102 BOSTON COLLEGE
93 TEXAS A&M
91 WAKE FOREST
90 ARIZONA ST
77 NORTH CAROLINA
76 MIAMI FL
73 TENNESSEE
71 COLORADO
68 MARYLAND
65 SOUTH CAROLINA


Plans for 2022

Every year, I try to come up with ways to add to or improve on the model presented here. This year's major add was the selection metrics to pick against the Vegas spread, which showed that even in a bad year overall, you can have success if selective.

For 2022, as I've been looking to do now for ages, I do plan on creating my own (not an aggregate) power ranking to be used and this gets us into a Boston College forecast for next year. This is a way, way, way too early look, but the general formula is pretty simple. Talent, recruiting, program history, returning production, added production, put them together and you can get a fairly decent idea of what any team will be projected to do.

Boston College is up on both the talent and recruiting front. The past two years of recruiting will raise both those metrics, albeit the talent is still mostly on the young end. Program history will be slightly down, BC did not live up to expectations in 2021 and hasn't been much more than mediocre over the four or five year window we will look at. Returning production is where the issue lies, mostly in terms of the offensive line, where we saw the drop off with Tyler Vrabel's injury and of course losing three experienced starters as well as what is being lost in the defensive secondary. The Eagles will most likely be favored against Maine, Connecticut, Syracuse and Duke and underdogs against Clemson, Notre Dame, NC State, Florida State and Wake Forest. Games that will probably sit in the toss up category will be Rutgers, Louisville and Virginia Tech. This leads me to believe that even in year three of the Jeff Hafley era, BC is still in that 6-6, 7-5 range for a predicted outcome.

See you in 2022 and Go Eagles!

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI		 AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
PRE
SEASON		 CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 14 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 0
2 ALABAMA 13 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 (1) 0
3 MICHIGAN 12 2 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 25 0
4 OHIO ST 11 2 3 7 3 4 3 6 5 0 0
5 OKLAHOMA ST 12 2 6 3 5 5 7 7 7 16 2
6 NOTRE DAME 11 2 5 9 7 8 6 8 9 12 (1)
7 CINCINNATI 13 1 10 5 9 6 10 4 4 15 (1)
8 BAYLOR 12 2 11 6 10 7 15 5 6 35 0
9 OKLAHOMA 11 2 8 10 6 9 5 10 10 (7) 0
10 UTAH 10 4 7 19 11 15 11 12 12 16 1
11 MICHIGAN ST 11 2 22 8 19 10 19 9 8 54 2
12 CLEMSON 10 3 9 20 8 11 8 14 16 (9) 3
13 MISSISSIPPI 10 3 20 12 13 12 18 11 11 11 (1)
14 PITTSBURGH 11 3 15 16 16 14 12 13 13 25 (4)
15 WISCONSIN 9 4 14 23 12 13 13 (7) 1
16 LOUISIANA 13 1 37 11 37 23 48 16 18 25 2
17 WAKE FOREST 11 3 28 17 21 17 22 15 14 38 4
18 IOWA 10 4 31 13 25 20 32 23 23 (2) (4)
19 PURDUE 9 4 23 22 23 18 25 39 4
20 HOUSTON 12 2 32 15 34 21 37 17 17 48 8
21 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 16 28 17 22 16 20 19 13 (4)
22 ARKANSAS 9 4 17 29 24 16 21 21 20 22 9
23 KENTUCKY 10 3 25 25 20 19 28 18 15 15 2
24 MINNESOTA 9 4 19 27 22 25 27 5 3
25 OREGON 10 4 38 18 26 30 30 22 21 (13) (6)
26 TEXAS A&M 8 4 13 36 15 24 14 25 (20) (4)
27 IOWA ST 7 6 12 39 14 26 9 (20) (3)
28 BYU 10 3 43 24 33 28 40 19 22 22 (8)
29 UCLA 8 4 18 35 29 35 31 6 (3)
30 KANSAS ST 8 5 26 32 27 31 35 27 7
31 SAN DIEGO ST 12 2 64 14 52 29 72 25 47 4
32 PENN ST 7 6 21 41 18 27 17 (22) (2)
33 APPALACHIAN ST 10 4 42 30 46 37 33 3 (4)
34 UTAH ST 11 3 58 26 54 36 74 24 24 80 8
35 UTSA 12 2 76 21 61 34 57 59 (3)
36 MIAMI FL 7 5 24 48 38 41 23 (21) (2)
37 AIR FORCE 10 3 48 33 39 32 66 48 9
38 ARIZONA ST 8 5 33 40 36 50 39 (13) (2)
39 COASTAL CAROLINA 11 2 56 31 56 44 45 6 4
40 TENNESSEE 7 6 27 59 32 39 26 13 (2)
41 TEXAS TECH 7 6 41 43 41 45 50 15 14
42 FRESNO ST 10 3 59 34 50 38 53 45 2
43 MISSISSIPPI ST 7 6 36 46 40 43 36 (10) (10)
44 WESTERN KENTUCKY 9 5 34 49 45 42 41 64 10
45 AUBURN 6 7 29 61 30 40 20 (25) (6)
46 WASHINGTON ST 7 6 39 53 44 60 54 13 (6)
47 UCF 9 4 63 38 53 52 55 (15) 13
48 UAB 9 4 55 42 65 51 60 26 9
49 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 9 4 51 44 67 62 79 37 9
50 LSU 6 7 44 56 35 49 42 (37) (9)
51 SMU 8 4 53 47 49 48 44 13 (2)
52 BOISE ST 7 5 46 54 28 33 38 (3) (2)
53 OREGON ST 7 6 49 55 43 59 52 20 (8)
54 LOUISVILLE 6 7 40 65 51 56 46 (2) (7)
55 TEXAS 5 7 35 67 31 47 24 (44) (3)
56 GEORGIA ST 8 5 57 52 82 69 83 32 8
57 ARMY 9 4 85 37 66 46 61 38 5
58 NORTH CAROLINA 6 7 45 69 55 65 43 (44) (10)
59 WEST VIRGINIA 6 7 50 66 48 54 49 (29) (3)
60 MARYLAND 7 6 71 51 57 53 63 1 12
61 TULSA 7 6 62 60 74 68 76 8 5
62 NEVADA 8 5 67 58 60 55 59 9 (11)
63 SOUTH CAROLINA 7 6 74 50 58 57 69 12 11
64 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 63 63 63 47 (17) (5)
65 WESTERN MICHIGAN 8 5 75 57 69 64 75 12 11
66 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 75 62 71 51 (15) (3)
67 FLORIDA 6 7 52 70 42 61 34 (58) (14)
68 LIBERTY 8 5 68 62 59 58 56 2 10
69 EAST CAROLINA 7 5 73 64 78 67 81 28 (4)
70 ILLINOIS 5 7 61 74 72 70 67 19 (3)
71 VIRGINIA TECH 6 7 65 71 76 76 64 (40) (10)
72 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 9 5 90 45 88 74 93 35 (4)
73 NEBRASKA 3 9 30 97 47 66 29 (36) 2
74 CALIFORNIA 5 7 54 86 64 83 73 (14) (3)
75 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 72 76 75 78 71 (27) (2)
76 MISSOURI 6 7 81 68 73 73 78 (34) (7)
77 TCU 5 7 83 72 68 72 68 (54) 3
78 TOLEDO 7 6 70 85 77 81 65 (12) (8)
79 MARSHALL 7 6 80 77 80 75 70 5 (2)
80 MEMPHIS 6 6 82 78 81 77 80 (26) (1)
81 USC 4 8 66 89 70 86 58 (64) 0
82 SYRACUSE 5 7 78 82 79 81 77 18 0
83 MIAMI OH 7 6 77 83 84 80 85 18 3
84 WYOMING 7 6 87 73 83 79 88 (5) 4
85 WASHINGTON 4 8 69 92 71 88 62 (66) (2)
86 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 7 6 89 81 92 87 87 26 5
87 COLORADO 4 8 79 91 87 96 89 (24) (3)
88 RUTGERS 5 8 94 84 85 84 86 (7) (3)
89 NAVY 4 8 88 93 91 85 101 17 7
90 KENT ST 7 7 101 79 99 91 100 8 (1)
91 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7 6 102 80 98 90 95 1 (4)
92 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 101 90 94 82 (25) 1
93 STANFORD 3 9 91 95 86 99 91 (47) 2
94 HAWAII 6 7 99 90 94 89 102 5 0
95 BALL ST 6 7 100 88 95 92 103 (23) (5)
96 NORTH TEXAS 6 7 95 96 102 95 96 19 (4)
97 UTEP 7 6 105 87 108 93 110 28 1
98 OLD DOMINION 6 7 98 94 103 98 105 28 (1)
99 NORTHWESTERN 3 9 92 103 93 102 94 (59) 0
100 INDIANA 2 10 93 106 89 97 84 (73) 0
101 TROY 5 7 106 99 105 103 98 (21) 0
102 TULANE 2 10 84 119 96 104 90 (40) 0
103 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 7 107 98 101 101 92 (13) 0
104 SAN JOSE ST 5 7 109 100 100 100 108 (22) 0
105 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 7 110 102 111 106 109 16 0
106 LA MONROE 4 8 115 104 119 107 120 18 0
107 COLORADO ST 3 9 104 112 97 105 97 (5) 0
108 KANSAS 2 10 112 109 113 108 114 5 1
109 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 10 97 117 109 110 107 (5) (1)
110 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 9 103 114 114 116 111 (19) 0
111 ARIZONA 1 11 96 123 104 118 106 (18) 0
112 TEXAS ST 4 8 116 108 123 115 119 8 0
113 BUFFALO 4 8 113 113 107 112 99 (37) 1
114 VANDERBILT 2 10 111 116 116 120 121 (9) (1)
115 CHARLOTTE 5 7 122 105 118 113 117 3 0
116 RICE 4 8 121 107 120 111 122 0 1
117 OHIO 3 9 108 122 110 121 115 (34) 2
118 DUKE 3 9 120 111 115 119 113 (22) (2)
119 LOUISIANA TECH 3 9 117 115 112 114 104 (9) (1)
120 UNLV 2 10 114 121 106 109 112 2 0
121 BOWLING GREEN 4 8 123 110 122 117 123 6 0
122 ARKANSAS ST 2 10 118 125 117 125 118 (19) 0
123 SOUTHERN MISS 3 9 119 124 124 123 116 (14) 0
124 NEW MEXICO 3 9 124 120 121 122 124 (7) 0
125 TEMPLE 3 9 126 118 125 124 125 (14) 0
126 NEW MEXICO ST 2 10 127 126 127 126 127 4 1
127 AKRON 2 10 125 127 126 127 128 (4) (1)
128 CONNECTICUT 1 11 128 128 128 128 129 0 0
129 FLORIDA INTL 1 11 129 130 129 129 126 (10) 0
130 MASSACHUSETTS 1 11 130 129 130 130 130 (1) 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI		 AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
PRE SEASON		 CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 10 3 9 20 8 11 8 14 16 0 0
2 PITTSBURGH 11 3 15 16 16 14 12 13 13 4 0
3 WAKE FOREST 11 3 28 17 21 17 22 15 14 8 0
4 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 16 28 17 22 16 20 19 1 0
5 MIAMI FL 7 5 24 48 38 41 23 0 (2) 0
6 LOUISVILLE 6 7 40 65 51 56 46 0 4 0
7 NORTH CAROLINA 6 7 45 69 55 65 43 0 (5) 0
8 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 63 63 63 47 0 (1) 0
9 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 75 62 71 51 0 0 1
10 VIRGINIA TECH 6 7 65 71 76 76 64 0 (6) (1)
11 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 72 76 75 78 71 0 (3) 0
12 SYRACUSE 5 7 78 82 79 81 77 0 2 0
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 101 90 94 82 0 (1) 0
14 DUKE 3 9 120 111 115 119 113 0 (1) 0

Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 349 400 0.466
Total 350 400 0.46667
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 528 240 0.688
Total 529 240 0.68791
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 10.2000 1
Previous 13.2193 713
Total 13.2151 714
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 44 54
vs Spread 45 54
Absolute Error 20 54
Money Line Picks Units
Week 0.00
Previous 42.61
Total 42.61
Spread Picks Units
Week 0.00
Previous 9.50
Total 9.50
Spread By Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 2.00 2 0
Week 2 1.00 1 0
Week 3 2.00 2 0
Week 4 0.00 0 0
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 (1.10) 0 1
Week 7 1.00 1 0
Week 8 2.00 2 0
Week 9 (2.20) 0 2
Week 10 0.90 2 1
Week 11 0.80 3 2
Week 12 0.00 0 0
Week 13 3.70 7 3
Week 14 (0.10) 1 1
Week 15 0.00 0 0
Bowls (1.50) 4 5
CFP 0.00 0 0
Total 9.50 26 15
Money Line by Week Profit Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 3.00 1 4
Week 2 8.75 2 3
Week 3 (2.00) 1 7
Week 4 0.10 1 3
Week 5 6.60 3 3
Week 6 11.75 3 4
Week 7 2.00 1 2
Week 8 1.25 1 3
Week 9 2.40 1 1
Week 10 7.74 3 2
Week 11 (1.00) 0 1
Week 12 2.50 1 3
Week 13 0.52 1 3
Week 14 0.00 0 0
Week 15 0.00 0 0
Bowls (1.00) 0 1
CFP 0.00 0 0
Total 42.61 19 40

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