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The Book 2021: Week 2 - September 11

The first week of the 2021 season that we will have a Boston College game on the board and it comes where already in the season, we need a win. No, not talking about the Eagles, they should be fine and panic would set in should the game at UMass go sideways, I am talking about The Book.

This was not unexpected, but with the oddities from 2020 scheduling and the computer models being thrown for a loop, week one did not go as hoped. Finishing last year once again over .500 counting all FBS vs FBS games, we now find ourselves, in an early hole, going just 20-28 .417 through weeks 1 and 2.

It wasn't as if predictions were wildly off, the model did create an edge in some games that panned out, just not well enough.

Per the Prediction Tracker website - we would be 34th out of 48 systems, picking winners and 26th out of 48 picking vs the Vegas spread, as mentioned, picking all FBS vs FBS games.

One of the stats that Prediction Tracker shows is Absolute Error. This shows the variance between the predicted spread and the actual outcome. After week 1, The Book would be #2 out of 48 in that measure. However, when comparing that to 2019 final numbers, our 13.2180 number would be 48th out of 64 systems, just showing how difficult projecting 2021, based on 2020, has been.

This week, the Book has BC as a 31.2 point favorite over the Minutemen, significantly below most oddsmakers, who have the Eagles at 37 1/2 on consensus at this time.

As far as our rankings are concerned, the early season always looks odd. Because they are based on both power ratings and strength of record, teams that win, are considered good and beat good teams, rise to the top early. Lose a game and you look way out of place (see Clemson).

Boston College, starting to get some love in the computer polls, likely will have to wait until the Missouri game to get much with this system. The Eagles may well be good, but a schedule of Colgate (233 in Sagarin), UMass (128 in our power rankings) and Temple (117 in those same rankings) is unlikely to buoy BC, for now.

It will pan out in the long run, but it will take a few weeks.

STAT OF NOTE FOR THE WEEK: Boston College is 32-0 against teams from New England since their last loss in 1978 vs Holy Cross. The Eagles actually lost two in a row vs New England teams to finish off that winless campaign, dropping a 27-0 decision in Amherst to UMass, the last game the Minutemen have won vs BC (0-10).

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Legend: Rank - Book combined power and strength of record rank, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings, Massey - Kenneth Massey Computer Composite Rankings, ESPN FPI - ESPN's Football Power Index Rankings, AP - Associated Press Writers Poll , Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, CFP - College Football Playoff Rankings, Change from last week - movement up or down in the Book rankings

RANK TEAM SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES
1 ALABAMA 1 1 1 1 1
2 UCLA 14 17 25 16 16
3 GEORGIA 2 3 5 2 2
4 OHIO ST 3 2 3 3 3
5 OKLAHOMA 5 4 4 4 4
6 PENN ST 7 13 11 11 13
7 TEXAS A&M 4 5 6 5 5
8 IOWA 10 6 16 10 12
9 TEXAS 9 7 7 15 15
10 FLORIDA 12 12 8 13 9
11 IOWA ST 15 14 19 9 10
12 NOTRE DAME 26 11 9 8 7
13 USC 8 10 21 14 14
14 OREGON 20 16 15 12 11
15 MISSISSIPPI 16 19 12 20 20
16 CINCINNATI 13 9 17 7 8
17 MICHIGAN 17 23 14
18 VIRGINIA TECH 30 28 26 19 21
19 AUBURN 11 15 10 25
20 UTAH 23 18 30 21 18
21 UCF 25 31 42
22 NORTH CAROLINA ST 19 34 18
23 KANSAS ST 21 35 53
24 TEXAS TECH 31 49 28
25 APPALACHIAN ST 35 30 35
26 OKLAHOMA ST 29 22 54 23
27 MISSOURI 27 41 52
28 MARYLAND 49 50 64
29 MICHIGAN ST 63 37 22
30 BYU 78 25 60
31 MISSISSIPPI ST 59 51 43
32 KENTUCKY 28 36 33
33 PURDUE 54 60 59
34 ARKANSAS 57 55 32
35 PITTSBURGH 43 38 27
36 BAYLOR 58 58 41
37 TCU 24 21 29
38 NEVADA 45 56 76
39 CLEMSON 6 8 2 6 6
40 ARIZONA ST 32 24 39 23 25
41 TENNESSEE 50 67 51
42 WAKE FOREST 37 42 47
43 RUTGERS 56 66 46
44 MARSHALL 44 46 66
45 COASTAL CAROLINA 55 33 44 17 19
46 MEMPHIS 61 57 57
47 ARMY 93 43 65
48 VIRGINIA 48 45 36
49 UTSA 81 72 74
50 SYRACUSE 74 80 85
51 SMU 40 54 38
52 UAB 68 61 71
53 BOSTON COLLEGE 33 44 34
54 FRESNO ST 60 79 63
55 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 70 102 93
56 WISCONSIN 18 20 23 18 17
57 LIBERTY 88 48 87
58 COLORADO 65 63 72
59 ILLINOIS 77 86 78
60 WYOMING 82 83 97
61 SAN DIEGO ST 102 77 83
62 TOLEDO 53 70 70
63 MIAMI FL 34 27 13 22 24
64 UTAH ST 85 95 100
65 SOUTH CAROLINA 51 73 58
66 LSU 22 26 24
67 TROY 72 76 62
68 BALL ST 76 64 91
69 NEBRASKA 83 69 50
70 NORTH CAROLINA 39 32 20 24 22
71 ARKANSAS ST 86 94 89
72 BUFFALO 47 47 56
73 CHARLOTTE 108 107 111
74 MINNESOTA 42 39 40
75 SAN JOSE ST 67 68 94
76 UTEP 116 115 118
77 SOUTH ALABAMA 104 106 104
78 INDIANA 46 29 45
79 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 98 100 90
80 AIR FORCE 89 75 107
81 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 107 85 109
82 WASHINGTON 38 59 49
83 WESTERN KENTUCKY 92 90 88
84 EASTERN MICHIGAN 91 97 95
85 TULANE 62 65 37
86 WEST VIRGINIA 41 52 55
87 FLORIDA ST 71 74 31
88 LOUISIANA 69 40 61
89 KANSAS 106 111 115
90 BOISE ST 36 53 67
91 NORTH TEXAS 110 109 99
92 LOUISVILLE 87 78 68
93 HAWAII 112 98 110
94 STANFORD 52 71 73
95 NORTHWESTERN 66 62 48
96 NEW MEXICO 115 113 121
97 FLORIDA INTL 114 116 106
98 CALIFORNIA 64 81 79
99 OREGON ST 80 84 80
100 HOUSTON 90 89 77
101 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 96 88 82
102 WESTERN MICHIGAN 79 96 96
103 WASHINGTON ST 73 87 81
104 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 75 91 75
105 GEORGIA TECH 95 104 69
106 KENT ST 84 92 103
107 EAST CAROLINA 105 105 101
108 ARIZONA 100 101 98
109 MIAMI OH 101 93 108
110 OHIO 94 108 117
111 TULSA 99 82 86
112 LOUISIANA TECH 97 99 92
113 GEORGIA ST 109 103 105
114 COLORADO ST 113 117 114
115 DUKE 103 110 84
116 SOUTH FLORIDA 118 119 113
117 RICE 119 112 112
118 NAVY 111 114 124
119 TEXAS ST 123 118 102
120 TEMPLE 117 122 120
121 SOUTHERN MISS 121 120 116
122 VANDERBILT 120 121 122
123 AKRON 124 125 128
124 LA MONROE 126 126 123
125 UNLV 122 124 119
126 OLD DOMINION 125 123 125
127 BOWLING GREEN 127 129 126
128 MASSACHUSETTS 128 128 127
129 NEW MEXICO ST 130 127 129
130 CONNECTICUT 129 130 130
ACC TEAM SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES
1 VIRGINIA TECH 30 28 26 19 21
2 NORTH CAROLINA ST 19 34 18
3 PITTSBURGH 43 38 27
4 CLEMSON 6 8 2 6 6
5 WAKE FOREST 37 42 47
6 VIRGINIA 48 45 36
7 SYRACUSE 74 80 85
8 BOSTON COLLEGE 33 44 34
9 MIAMI FL 34 27 13 22 24
10 NORTH CAROLINA 39 32 20 24 22
11 FLORIDA ST 71 74 31
12 LOUISVILLE 87 78 68
13 GEORGIA TECH 95 104 69
14 DUKE 103 110 84
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Coastal Carolina 22.9 Kansas 91%
at Boise St 29.1 UTEP 95%
at Florida Atlantic 5.3 Georgia Southern 63%
Boston College 31.2 at Umass 95%
at New Mexico 19.5 New Mexico St 89%
at Virginia 10.3 Illinois 77%
at Army 6.8 Western Kentucky 68%
Florida 25.7 at South Florida 93%
South Carolina 2.2 East Carolina 53%
at Tennessee 0.1 Pittsburgh 50%
at Minnesota 19.1 Miami OH 89%
at Ohio St 13.8 Oregon 84%
at Oklahoma St 14.3 Tulsa 85%
Wyoming 0.4 at Northern Illinois 50%
at Virginia Tech 21.9 Middle Tennessee 90%
Rutgers 2.4 at Syracuse 53%
at Notre Dame 16.4 Toledo 89%
Purdue 30.5 at Connecticut 95%
at Georgia 24.6 UAB 92%
Texas A&M 15.3 at Colorado 87%
at Iowa St 2.5 Iowa 54%
at Nebraska 8.2 Buffalo 74%
at Penn St 22.3 Ball St 92%
at TCU 13.4 California 83%
Temple 5.8 at Akron 65%
Air Force 4.0 at Navy 62%
South Alabama 10.4 at Bowling Green 77%
Houston 6.7 at Rice 68%
Texas 9.7 at Arkansas 75%
North Carolina St 2.2 at Mississippi St 53%
at Florida International 2.4 Texas St 53%
at SMU 18.1 North Texas 95%
at Miami FL 7.3 Appalachian St 70%
at Wisconsin 25.7 Eastern Michigan 93%
Liberty 0.4 at Troy 50%
Memphis 6.4 at Arkansas St 66%
at Kentucky 4.8 Missouri 63%
at North Carolina 20.0 Georgia St 89%
at Michigan 6.8 Washington 68%
at Colorado St 3.8 Vanderbilt 61%
at Arizona 1.7 San Diego St 52%
Utah 3.1 at BYU 57%
at USC 14.0 Stanford 85%
at Arizona St 30.9 UNLV 95%
at Oregon St 9.8 Hawaii 75%
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 20 24 0.455
Previous 0 4 0.000
Total 20 28 0.41667
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 31 15 0.674
Previous 3 1 0.750
Total 34 16 0.68000