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The Book 2021: Week 5 - October 2

After a week's sabbatical where we once again struggled against the number but got all the enjoyment I could around BC's win over Missouri, leaving Alumni on Saturday with a smile I just couldn't wipe off my face, we're back with this week's version of The Book.

There is a plethora of topics to cover this week, so let's get started.

Boston College vs Clemson

I am not sure how many of you felt disrespected with an opening line of 14.5, now up to 16. Particularly with the enthusiasm here combined with the way Clemson has looked and all the key injuries the Tigers will carry into the contest. Unfortunately, there isn't much The Book is going to provide to lighten that load. Even at 2-2 and struggling offensively, our line is right there with Vegas at 15.2 but it also corresponds with where most of the computer lines are as well. Vegas and the computers have different goals in mind when setting a line, but yet most of the time, tend to meet in the middle.

Why might this be though? That gets into the topic of Strength of Schedule and teams who are overrated and those who are underrated.

Although we are only four weeks into the season, the majority of non-conference games have been played and with them, a major imbalance in strength of schedule. For instance, if you had UMass as one of your top 10 strength of schedule teams to this point, congratulate yourself. The Minutemen are #10, but it won't last. The remainder of their schedule while Power 5 teams move into conference play will balance that out.

The top 10 strength of schedule to date have a combined record of 10-28. What that tells me is that if you have a great record against these teams, you are likely to be a very good team. If you don't however, it doesn't necessarily mean you are bad...you might be...but it also is likely to be at least partly your competition. The same applies for the weakest strength of schedule.

1 WISCONSIN 1 2
2 UNLV 0 4
3 MISSISSIPPI ST 2 2
4 FLORIDA 3 1
5 VANDERBILT 1 3
6 TULSA 1 3
7 CLEMSON 2 2
8 ILLINOIS 1 4
9 KENT ST 1 3
10 MASSACHUSETTS 0 4

Teams on this list are 29-11 to date, but while they might well be good, it could just be who they've played. If your record is bad and you are on this list (I see you New Mexico State), things probably aren't going to end well.

121 BAYLOR 4 0
122 NEW MEXICO ST 1 4
123 TROY 2 2
124 EASTERN MICHIGAN 3 1
125 HOUSTON 3 1
126 NEW MEXICO 2 2
127 UTEP 3 1
128 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 0
129 SOUTH ALABAMA 3 0
130 COASTAL CAROLINA 4 0

Why does this matter?

BC is #128 in the country in strength of schedule and Clemson is #7. Just sayin'.

So, is Boston College underrated or overrated?

The proof is still out there to be found.

According to the Book, BC is #28 in our combined power rating plus strength of record ranking. The Eagles though are only #49 in the power ranking component and although the game against Missouri was enjoyable, it isn't as if the Tigers are a great SEC team. Mizzou is just 75th in our combined rankings and 58th in the power component. The Eagles still have six teams on their 2021 schedule, who have a current power rating above Missouri.

Boston College’s Projected 2021 Record

To say that virtually every game remaining on the schedule is a near toss up, would be putting it mildly. In the pre-season, we had the Eagles for 8-4 overall and 4-4 in the ACC. Despite the predicted 4-0 start, as of this week, we now have BC at 7-5 overall and 3-5 in the ACC. Six of the remaining eight games have spreads under 6 points.

Game Result Score Record Line
Vs Colgate W 51-0 1-0 NL
At UMass W 45-28 2-0 BC by 31.2
At Temple W 28-3 3-0 BC by 12.7
Vs Missouri W 41-34 4-0 BC by 2.6
At Clemson Clemson by 15.2
Vs NC State NC State by 4.1
At Louisville Louisville by 3.5
At Syracuse BC by 5.9
Vs Virginia Tech BC by 1.1
At Georgia Tech Georgia Tech by 2.7
Vs Florida State BC by 9.1
Vs Wake Forest Wake Forest by 0.1
Projected Record 7-5


Boston College vs Power 5 teams at home

Saturday's win was just the 7th non-conference Power Five home game (Notre Dame excluded) since 2000. The Eagles are now 4-3 in those contests.

2002 - Boston College 34 Stanford 27

2003 - Wake Forest 32 Boston College 28

2004 - Boston College 21 Penn State 7

2011 - Northwestern 24 Boston College 17

2014 - Boston College 37 USC 31

2019 - Kansas 48 Boston College 24

2021 - Boston College 41 Missouri 34

Current Conference Rankings

Below you can check out our weighted rankings using a central mean method for conferences as a whole and breaking them out by division. The ACC and for that matter the Pac 12, don't fare very well. What these rankings tell us is that the weighted average SEC team would be favored over their ACC counterparts by a touchdown. For those of you interested, the middle ACC teams are Georgia Tech and Louisville, and the middle SEC teams are Auburn and Arkansas (albeit with the Hogs clearly on the rise). For those who wonder, it is possible that both Pac 12 divisions could be lower than both ACC divisions and yet still rate higher overall using the central mean method.

CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2021
1 SEC West 135.72
2 Big 10 East 131.94
3 Big 12 130.08
4 ACC Coastal 127.50
5 Big 10 West 127.38
6 ACC Atlantic 127.29
7 SEC East 126.65
8 Pac 12 South 126.59
9 Pac 12 North 125.99
10 AAC 120.08
11 Sun Belt East 119.06
12 Mountain West West 116.92
13 Mountain West Mountain 116.55
14 Mid American West 116.09
15 Independent 111.61
16 Conference USA East 111.56
17 Conference USA West 109.87
18 Mid American East 108.98
19 Sun Belt West 108.36

CONFERENCE RANKINGS 2021
1 SEC 132.15
2 Big 12 130.08
3 Big 10 129.75
4 Pac 12 126.23
5 ACC 125.32
6 AAC 120.08
7 Mountain West 116.64
8 Sun Belt 114.17
9 Mid American 112.96
10 Independent 111.61
11 Conference USA 110.72

Only one week so far in 2021 with a winning record vs the closing Vegas line and that was the week of September 18 where we went 24-20 and gave all those gains back and then some last week..so a long, long way to go to dig out of the near basement of the Prediction Tracker site. We are close though...another 15 games last week within one point of Vegas but only 4-11 in those contests.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, Change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 4 0 1 3 2 1 1 2 2 0
2 ALABAMA 4 0 2 9 1 2 2 1 1 0
3 MICHIGAN 4 0 9 4 4 3 7 14 14 2
4 IOWA 4 0 13 2 6 4 21 5 5 0
5 NOTRE DAME 4 0 14 1 5 5 13 9 7 5
6 PENN ST 4 0 8 8 12 6 11 4 6 (3)
7 OKLAHOMA 4 0 5 12 3 9 3 6 4 (1)
8 ARKANSAS 4 0 20 5 21 8 14 8 11 4
9 OREGON 4 0 16 11 11 7 10 3 3 0
10 OKLAHOMA ST 4 0 27 6 15 15 38 19 18 5
11 OHIO ST 3 1 3 30 7 14 4 11 10 3
12 TEXAS 3 1 4 29 14 13 8 9
13 FLORIDA 3 1 7 25 8 12 6 10 9 5
14 MICHIGAN ST 4 0 32 10 37 16 15 17 16 3
15 BYU 4 0 44 7 46 20 53 13 15 (2)
16 MISSISSIPPI 3 0 10 28 9 10 9 12 12 (8)
17 CINCINNATI 3 0 11 34 13 11 17 7 8 (6)
18 WAKE FOREST 4 0 35 17 20 19 32 24 25 13
19 SMU 4 0 46 13 27 25 28 14
20 TEXAS A&M 3 1 15 31 18 18 20 15 13 (13)
21 BAYLOR 4 0 30 21 32 23 31 21 24 9
22 KENTUCKY 4 0 51 15 29 21 51 23 3
23 COASTAL CAROLINA 4 0 34 22 49 29 34 16 16 4
24 MARYLAND 4 0 50 19 35 26 43 10
25 LSU 3 1 18 44 17 22 22 14
26 UCLA 3 1 26 26 19 17 25 20 20 15
27 NORTH CAROLINA ST 3 1 23 38 22 30 18 23 22
28 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 0 49 23 42 32 45 12
29 AUBURN 3 1 19 53 24 28 19 22 22 15
30 SAN DIEGO ST 4 0 70 20 69 50 70 (1)
31 UTSA 4 0 76 18 64 37 61 16
32 ARMY 4 0 82 14 61 35 65 11
33 KANSAS ST 3 1 48 27 23 31 57 (17)
34 FRESNO ST 4 1 67 24 51 42 52 18 21 4
35 CLEMSON 2 2 6 69 10 24 5 25 19 (15)
36 LOUISVILLE 3 1 43 37 55 46 58 18
37 WYOMING 4 0 84 16 66 59 87 (5)
38 ARIZONA ST 3 1 29 49 45 45 44 18
39 VIRGINIA TECH 3 1 47 39 39 47 37 (2)
40 IOWA ST 2 2 12 63 16 36 12 (17)
41 PURDUE 3 1 55 33 43 38 46 10
42 PITTSBURGH 3 1 36 50 31 33 16 10
43 RUTGERS 3 1 52 41 34 27 35 (15)
44 NORTH CAROLINA 2 2 17 62 36 48 23 (25)
45 UAB 3 1 61 36 57 53 59 18
46 OREGON ST 3 1 54 45 40 44 48 21
47 LOUISIANA 3 1 59 42 76 62 73 11
48 WESTERN MICHIGAN 3 1 63 35 38 41 66 13
49 APPALACHIAN ST 3 1 53 47 58 51 41 11
50 TEXAS TECH 3 1 62 40 70 65 56 (28)
51 MEMPHIS 3 1 65 43 59 58 64 (27)
52 USC 2 2 22 65 50 61 39 (26)
53 WASHINGTON 2 2 25 61 25 55 42 13
54 MISSISSIPPI ST 2 2 40 59 44 49 30 (9)
55 LIBERTY 3 1 64 54 56 57 67 (20)
56 BOISE ST 2 2 31 68 28 34 40 24
57 MIAMI FL 2 2 28 75 60 54 24 8
58 WEST VIRGINIA 2 2 24 81 26 39 29 (1)
59 UTAH 2 2 38 67 52 66 49 16
60 GEORGIA TECH 2 2 42 66 48 68 33 22
61 MINNESOTA 2 2 45 64 72 74 63 (25)
62 TCU 2 1 39 70 33 52 36 (16)
63 SYRACUSE 3 1 81 48 74 64 78 14
64 STANFORD 2 2 56 60 47 60 60 (16)
65 UCF 2 1 37 76 41 40 47 (10)
66 HOUSTON 3 1 72 57 91 78 72 4
67 INDIANA 2 2 41 73 54 56 55 12
68 WISCONSIN 1 2 21 95 30 43 27 (18)
69 DUKE 3 1 83 51 78 75 76 7
70 UTAH ST 3 1 98 32 89 77 94 (28)
71 AIR FORCE 3 1 80 55 75 69 91 10
72 NEBRASKA 2 3 32 88 53 63 26 (13)
73 VIRGINIA 2 2 57 77 65 70 50 (20)
74 EASTERN MICHIGAN 3 1 93 56 87 84 85 9
75 MISSOURI 2 2 58 83 63 67 62 (13)
76 NEVADA 2 1 73 72 67 73 84 (7)
77 NORTHWESTERN 2 2 66 86 77 76 69 12
78 TENNESSEE 2 2 60 89 62 72 54 (10)
79 SOUTH CAROLINA 2 2 74 79 68 71 68 (15)
80 TOLEDO 2 2 71 82 71 81 71 10
81 CHARLOTTE 3 1 109 52 104 90 103 6
82 MARSHALL 2 2 75 91 79 80 75 (4)
83 SOUTH ALABAMA 3 0 117 46 106 79 108 (10)
84 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 2 2 88 80 92 83 86 (13)
85 SAN JOSE ST 2 2 91 84 93 91 98 (13)
86 LOUISIANA TECH 2 2 99 71 88 88 89 10
87 EAST CAROLINA 2 2 97 85 96 92 101 1
88 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 2 2 92 90 95 98 92 13
89 TROY 2 2 87 93 99 96 88 (15)
90 TULSA 0 4 77 98 82 87 74 18
91 BUFFALO 2 2 90 92 83 86 82 7
92 CALIFORNIA 1 3 68 106 73 93 79 (7)
93 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 2 2 108 78 86 82 100 6
94 TULANE 1 3 69 113 90 85 77 (10)
95 COLORADO 1 3 79 109 98 101 90 (9)
96 UTEP 3 1 126 58 122 103 120 13
97 COLORADO ST 1 3 89 100 81 97 96 (2)
98 GEORGIA ST 1 3 95 99 102 102 102 (4)
99 ILLINOIS 1 4 86 105 84 94 83 (7)
100 HAWAII 2 3 104 96 107 107 106 13
101 WESTERN KENTUCKY 1 2 96 102 85 89 80 (1)
102 KENT ST 1 3 94 103 80 95 93 (11)
103 WASHINGTON ST 1 3 85 112 97 110 97 (6)
104 TEMPLE 2 2 110 94 112 106 114 6
105 LA MONROE 2 1 123 74 117 99 122 14
106 BOWLING GREEN 2 2 122 87 113 111 119 14
107 ARKANSAS ST 1 3 102 108 103 113 104 (4)
108 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 3 103 107 108 109 105 (1)
109 BALL ST 1 3 101 110 101 105 110 (7)
110 MIAMI OH 1 3 100 118 100 104 99 (6)
111 NEW MEXICO 2 2 120 97 123 115 123 (18)
112 VANDERBILT 1 3 115 101 111 114 121 (6)
113 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 1 3 105 117 105 108 95 (8)
114 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 1 3 107 115 115 112 113 (3)
115 FLORIDA ST 0 4 78 127 94 100 81 0
116 SOUTHERN MISS 1 3 112 121 121 117 111 1
117 KANSAS 1 3 121 104 110 116 116 (5)
118 NORTH TEXAS 1 3 113 120 114 119 109 (2)
119 TEXAS ST 1 3 119 114 124 122 115 (5)
120 FLORIDA INTL 1 3 116 122 125 124 112 (2)
121 RICE 1 3 124 116 126 121 126 3
122 NAVY 0 3 111 123 119 123 124 (1)
123 OLD DOMINION 1 3 125 119 116 120 118 (1)
124 ARIZONA 0 4 106 128 109 117 107 1
125 AKRON 1 3 127 111 127 127 129 (2)
126 UNLV 0 4 118 126 120 125 117 1
127 OHIO 0 4 114 129 118 126 125 (1)
128 NEW MEXICO ST 1 4 129 124 130 130 130 0
129 MASSACHUSETTS 0 4 128 125 128 128 127 0
130 CONNECTICUT 0 5 130 130 129 129 128 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 WAKE FOREST 4 0 35 17 20 19 32 24 25 2
2 NORTH CAROLINA ST 3 1 23 38 22 30 18 23 4
3 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 0 49 23 42 32 45 2
4 CLEMSON 2 2 6 69 10 24 5 25 19 (2)
5 LOUISVILLE 3 1 43 37 55 46 58 4
6 VIRGINIA TECH 3 1 47 39 39 47 37 (2)
7 PITTSBURGH 3 1 36 50 31 33 16 0
8 NORTH CAROLINA 2 2 17 62 36 48 23 (7)
9 MIAMI FL 2 2 28 75 60 54 24 1
10 GEORGIA TECH 2 2 42 66 48 68 33 3
11 SYRACUSE 3 1 81 48 74 64 78 1
12 DUKE 3 1 83 51 78 75 76 (1)
13 VIRGINIA 2 2 57 77 65 70 50 (5)
14 FLORIDA ST 0 4 78 127 94 100 81 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Miami FL 7.9 Virginia 71%
at Tulsa 1.4 Houston 54%
Iowa 9.0 at Maryland 73%
BYU 10.9 at Utah State 76%
at Alabama 14.1 Mississippi 82%
at Georgia 19.5 Arkansas 88%
Florida 9.6 at Kentucky 74%
at LSU 4.7 Auburn 63%
at Missouri 3.0 Tennessee 59%
at South Carolina 5.4 Troy 65%
at Texas A&M 11.7 Mississippi State 78%
at Vanderbilt 17.9 Connecticut 87%
at Florida Atlantic 11.9 Florida International 78%
Marshall 4.2 at Middle Tennessee 63%
at UTEP 2.2 Old Dominion 57%
Southern Miss 3.7 at Rice 61%
at Illinois 9.1 Charlotte 73%
at North Carolina St 23.3 Louisiana Tech 91%
at UTSA 19.0 UNLV 88%
at Michigan State 14.9 Western Kentucky 82%
at Clemson 15.2 Boston College 83%
at Florida State 3.4 Syracuse 60%
at Georgia Tech 0.3 Pittsburgh 51%
at North Carolina 18.7 Duke 88%
at Wake Forest 5.2 Louisville 65%
at Penn State 14.0 Indiana 82%
Michigan 0.3 at Wisconsin 51%
at Purdue 0.7 Minnesota 52%
at Nebraska 7.5 Northwestern 70%
Ohio State 13.8 at Rutgers 82%
Toledo 25.0 at Massachusetts 93%
at Iowa State 38.6 Kansas 99%
Oklahoma 10.5 at Kansas State 76%
at Oklahoma State 3.7 Baylor 61%
Texas 11.5 at TCU 78%
at West Virginia 11.5 Texas Tech 78%
Tulane 3.5 at East Carolina 61%
Memphis 13.0 at Temple 81%
at SMU 16.8 South Florida 85%
Central Michigan 1.1 at Miami OH 54%
Eastern Michigan 5.4 at Northern Illinois 65%
Army 4.5 at Ball State 63%
Ohio 6.5 at Akron 67%
Western Michigan 4.1 at Buffalo 62%
at Kent State 12.7 Bowling Green 80%
Appalachian State 10.4 at Georgia State 77%
at Georgia Southern 0.3 Arkansas State 51%
at Coastal Carolina 29.2 Louisiana Monroe 95%
Louisiana 16.8 at South Alabama 85%
at California 8.8 Washington State 72%
Oregon 7.9 at Stanford 71%
Washington 3.3 at Oregon State 59%
at UCLA 4.9 at Arizona State 63%
USC 9.1 at Colorado 73%
Air Force 11.6 at New Mexico 78%
at Boise State 11.4 Nevada 78%
at San Jose State 27.2 New Mexico State 94%
at Notre Dame 2.0 Cincinnati 55%
UCF 18.3 at Navy 87%
at UAB 4.2 Liberty 62%
Fresno State 9.4 at Hawaii 74%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 2 0 1.000
Total 3 0 1.000
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 1 1 0.500
Total 2 1 0.667
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 25 32 0.439
Previous 62 78 0.443
Total 87 110 0.44162
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 42 16 0.724
Previous 109 38 0.741
Total 151 54 0.73659
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.2481 58
Previous 12.6925 147
Total 12.8497 205
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 29 50
vs Spread 48 50
Absolute Error 7 50
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest