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The Book 2021: Week 3 - September 18

The past week was not kind to either Boston College or The Book.

The Eagles rather lackluster performance at UMass on Saturday resulted in a win, but with the loss of Phil Jurkovec has put at least a temporary damper on the aspirations of the 2021 season.

The Book on the other hand, doing so well in terms of setting spreads, but unfortunately, not so well picking against them, going just 15-27 for the week to now sit 20 games under .500 just two full weeks into the season. This is a position, I can never remember being in at any point in any year I've done this going back 35 years.

Incredibly, The Book's point spread prediction included 1 game where our spread and the closing Vegas line was the same and another 15 where our spread was within one point of what the wiseguys predicted. In those 15 games, we went just 2-13 and therefore lie in the bed we find ourselves.

The Book's best game of the week in terms of delta against the spread was actually UMass and would have covered.

The national rankings now have Georgia as our #1 team, overtaking Alabama based mostly on their strength of record. The Dawgs are #2 in the power rankings and #3 in strength of record, with Bama at #1 in the power but only 21st in SOR. Iowa and Penn State round out the top four, with Oregon jumping 9 spots to #5 after their win at Ohio State.

As for the Eagles, they dropped one spot to #54 following the win in Amherst. That mid 50s ranking is very much where the majority of the computer polls see the Eagles. As mentioned last week, don't expect that to rise much in the short term as BC has played the dead last, #130 in the country, strength of schedule to date, per our metrics.

BC goes to Temple this week as a 12.7 point favorite. The opening line in Vegas (remember, our standings are vs the closing line) have the Eagles as 16 point favorites, that number is down to 15 1/2 as of Tuesday night.

Thre will be no Book posting next week as I will be away celebrating our wedding anniversary! Back in two weeks, hopefully with better results.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles.

Legend: Rank - Book combined power and strength of record rank, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings, Massey - Kenneth Massey Computer Composite Rankings, ESPN FPI - ESPN's Football Power Index Rankings, AP - Associated Press Writers Poll , Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, CFP - College Football Playoff Rankings, Change from last week - movement up or down in the Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 2 0 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A 2
2 ALABAMA 2 0 1 21 1 1 1 1 1 N/A (1)
3 IOWA 2 0 7 1 7 3 13 5 7 N/A 5
4 PENN ST 2 0 6 4 8 6 8 10 12 N/A 2
5 OREGON 2 0 9 2 9 8 7 4 4 N/A 9
6 TEXAS A&M 2 0 8 12 5 5 9 7 5 N/A 1
7 MICHIGAN 2 0 10 6 18 14 12 25 25 N/A 10
8 OKLAHOMA 2 0 3 35 3 4 3 3 3 N/A (3)
9 FLORIDA 2 0 12 14 10 11 6 11 9 N/A 1
10 NOTRE DAME 2 0 21 9 34 12 16 12 10 N/A 2
11 VIRGINIA TECH 2 0 25 5 30 23 20 15 15 N/A 7
12 UCLA 2 0 24 8 19 15 25 13 13 N/A (10)
13 MISSISSIPPI 2 0 18 25 15 13 14 17 16 N/A 2
14 ARKANSAS 2 0 33 11 41 24 18 20 24 N/A 20
15 BYU 2 0 41 7 72 19 50 23 23 N/A 15
16 CINCINNATI 2 0 15 31 14 10 22 8 8 N/A 0
17 MISSISSIPPI ST 2 0 38 10 38 39 32 N/A 14
18 KENTUCKY 2 0 37 16 25 35 30 N/A 14
19 PITTSBURGH 2 0 34 20 37 34 17 N/A 16
20 OKLAHOMA ST 2 0 30 23 29 27 55 22 N/A 6
21 KANSAS ST 2 0 54 13 21 37 64 N/A 2
22 TCU 2 0 26 30 16 21 28 N/A 15
23 AUBURN 2 0 13 49 12 17 10 22 20 N/A (4)
24 PURDUE 2 0 44 22 54 43 39 N/A 9
25 OHIO ST 1 1 5 55 6 9 5 9 11 N/A (21)
26 UCF 2 0 29 33 26 25 31 N/A (5)
27 VIRGINIA 2 0 31 34 40 32 24 N/A 21
28 RUTGERS 2 0 67 17 53 49 46 N/A 15
29 MICHIGAN ST 2 0 48 27 73 36 26 N/A 0
30 ARIZONA ST 2 0 28 39 24 30 40 19 21 N/A 10
31 TEXAS TECH 2 0 57 28 50 59 54 N/A (7)
32 MEMPHIS 2 0 56 29 59 55 51 N/A 14
33 CLEMSON 1 1 4 85 4 7 4 6 6 N/A 6
34 COASTAL CAROLINA 2 0 43 41 56 31 45 16 18 N/A 11
35 NEVADA 2 0 65 32 49 47 76 N/A 3
36 WISCONSIN 1 1 14 58 11 16 15 18 17 N/A 20
37 SMU 2 0 52 38 47 48 36 N/A 14
38 ARMY 2 0 86 15 96 52 67 N/A 9
39 LIBERTY 2 0 59 36 84 42 87 N/A 18
40 SAN DIEGO ST 2 0 77 26 70 65 72 N/A 21
41 MARYLAND 2 0 51 44 57 40 49 N/A (13)
42 WYOMING 2 0 87 19 65 81 89 N/A 18
43 MIAMI FL 1 1 22 54 39 29 21 24 N/A 20
44 IOWA ST 1 1 16 59 13 18 23 14 14 N/A (33)
45 NORTH CAROLINA 1 1 11 64 23 22 11 21 19 N/A 25
46 TEXAS 1 1 17 60 20 20 19 N/A (37)
47 NEBRASKA 2 1 40 50 51 50 37 N/A 22
48 BAYLOR 2 0 50 47 44 54 43 N/A (12)
49 WAKE FOREST 2 0 64 45 52 51 63 N/A (7)
50 UTAH ST 2 0 97 18 89 86 94 N/A 14
51 SOUTH CAROLINA 2 0 72 43 66 68 62 N/A 14
52 MARSHALL 2 0 74 42 61 57 71 N/A (8)
53 USC 1 1 20 65 27 28 35 N/A (40)
54 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 0 60 51 58 60 47 N/A (1)
55 FRESNO ST 2 1 62 52 67 69 44 N/A (1)
56 UTSA 2 0 84 40 88 67 65 N/A (7)
57 MINNESOTA 1 1 46 57 55 53 59 N/A 17
58 UTAH 1 1 27 69 31 38 33 N/A (38)
59 LSU 1 1 19 89 17 33 34 N/A 7
60 APPALACHIAN ST 1 1 39 61 45 44 29 N/A (35)
61 STANFORD 1 1 47 56 22 45 52 N/A 33
62 AIR FORCE 2 0 88 46 75 66 105 N/A 18
63 NORTH CAROLINA ST 1 1 35 68 35 56 27 N/A (41)
64 INDIANA 1 1 23 82 33 26 38 N/A 14
65 MISSOURI 1 1 49 63 36 62 53 N/A (38)
66 BOISE ST 1 1 42 74 28 41 48 N/A 24
67 SOUTH ALABAMA 2 0 116 24 108 97 103 N/A 10
68 CHARLOTTE 2 0 110 37 107 96 110 N/A 5
69 TENNESSEE 1 1 55 75 64 74 60 N/A (28)
70 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 1 1 75 62 82 76 66 N/A 31
71 HOUSTON 1 1 70 73 69 80 84 N/A 29
72 OREGON ST 1 1 73 67 62 73 80 N/A 27
73 TULANE 1 1 45 96 63 61 41 N/A 12
74 LOUISVILLE 1 1 53 91 77 75 73 N/A 18
75 COLORADO 1 1 58 83 42 58 58 N/A (17)
76 LOUISIANA 1 1 69 78 80 64 81 N/A 12
77 WEST VIRGINIA 1 1 36 108 32 46 42 N/A 9
78 UAB 1 1 80 72 87 77 82 N/A (26)
79 TOLEDO 1 1 63 94 46 70 57 N/A (17)
80 NORTHWESTERN 1 1 68 93 76 63 68 N/A 15
81 WESTERN MICHIGAN 1 1 81 77 68 90 86 N/A 21
82 SYRACUSE 1 1 91 70 90 89 92 N/A (32)
83 GEORGIA TECH 1 1 71 97 83 94 70 N/A 22
84 NEW MEXICO 2 0 121 48 120 108 121 N/A 12
85 SAN JOSE ST 1 1 83 92 81 72 96 N/A (10)
86 ILLINOIS 1 2 93 76 99 92 85 N/A (27)
87 WASHINGTON ST 1 1 78 99 74 87 88 N/A 16
88 BALL ST 0 2 90 84 79 79 101 N/A (20)
89 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 1 1 100 66 86 106 99 N/A (34)
90 KENT ST 1 1 89 88 60 84 91 N/A 16
91 TROY 1 1 79 101 93 83 61 N/A (24)
92 ARKANSAS ST 1 1 95 90 97 99 90 N/A (21)
93 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 1 1 82 104 71 88 77 N/A 11
94 LOUISIANA TECH 1 1 101 81 100 95 100 N/A 18
95 WASHINGTON 0 2 32 116 43 71 56 N/A (13)
96 TEXAS ST 1 1 115 71 119 107 102 N/A 23
97 BUFFALO 1 1 85 107 78 78 74 N/A (25)
98 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 1 1 104 86 103 101 93 N/A (19)
99 DUKE 1 1 92 102 94 100 79 N/A 16
100 EASTERN MICHIGAN 1 1 99 95 91 102 97 N/A (16)
101 VANDERBILT 1 1 109 80 113 114 119 N/A 21
102 TEMPLE 1 1 112 79 109 115 115 N/A 18
103 WESTERN KENTUCKY 1 1 98 100 98 91 83 N/A (20)
104 UTEP 2 1 124 53 124 118 120 N/A (28)
105 CALIFORNIA 0 2 61 115 48 82 75 N/A (7)
106 KANSAS 1 1 118 87 106 112 116 N/A (17)
107 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 1 1 106 103 111 104 114 N/A (26)
108 NORTH TEXAS 1 1 114 98 112 111 95 N/A (17)
109 HAWAII 1 2 107 105 105 103 109 N/A (16)
110 SOUTHERN MISS 1 1 113 109 115 113 107 N/A 11
111 FLORIDA ST 0 2 66 127 92 93 69 N/A (24)
112 TULSA 0 2 76 124 85 85 78 N/A (1)
113 MIAMI OH 0 2 96 113 95 98 104 N/A (4)
114 FLORIDA INTL 1 1 117 110 121 119 108 N/A (17)
115 EAST CAROLINA 0 2 94 119 101 105 98 N/A (8)
116 GEORGIA ST 0 2 105 114 114 109 113 N/A (3)
117 SOUTH FLORIDA 0 2 111 112 117 122 112 N/A (1)
118 ARIZONA 0 2 103 120 102 110 106 N/A (10)
119 OLD DOMINION 1 1 125 106 123 123 124 N/A 7
120 COLORADO ST 0 2 108 126 110 121 117 N/A (6)
121 RICE 0 2 120 118 122 120 111 N/A (4)
122 NAVY 0 2 119 123 116 117 126 N/A (4)
123 LA MONROE 0 1 123 111 125 125 123 N/A 1
124 OHIO 0 2 102 128 104 116 122 N/A (14)
125 UNLV 0 2 122 122 118 124 118 N/A 0
126 AKRON 0 2 127 121 127 129 128 N/A (3)
127 BOWLING GREEN 0 2 126 125 126 128 127 N/A 0
128 MASSACHUSETTS 0 2 128 117 128 126 125 N/A 0
129 NEW MEXICO ST 0 3 129 129 129 127 129 N/A 0
130 CONNECTICUT 0 3 130 130 130 130 130 N/A 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 VIRGINIA TECH 2 0 25 5 30 23 20 15 15 N/A 0
2 PITTSBURGH 2 0 34 20 37 34 17 N/A 1
3 VIRGINIA 2 0 31 34 40 32 24 N/A 3
4 CLEMSON 1 1 4 85 4 7 4 6 6 N/A 0
5 MIAMI FL 1 1 22 54 39 29 21 24 N/A 4
6 NORTH CAROLINA 1 1 11 64 23 22 11 21 19 N/A 4
7 WAKE FOREST 2 0 64 45 52 51 63 N/A (2)
8 BOSTON COLLEGE 2 0 60 51 58 60 47 N/A 0
9 NORTH CAROLINA ST 1 1 35 68 35 56 27 N/A (7)
10 LOUISVILLE 1 1 53 91 77 75 73 N/A 2
11 SYRACUSE 1 1 91 70 90 89 92 N/A (4)
12 GEORGIA TECH 1 1 71 97 83 94 70 N/A 1
13 DUKE 1 1 92 102 94 100 79 N/A 1
14 FLORIDA ST 0 2 66 127 92 93 69 N/A (2)
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
at Louisiana 11.9 Ohio 81%
UCF 1.4 at Louisville 51%
Maryland 8.9 at Illinois 75%
UAB 6.1 at North Texas 66%
at Marshall 11.1 East Carolina 80%
Eastern Michigan 17.0 at UMass 91%
at Wyoming 3.3 Ball St 57%
at Texas A&M 38.3 New Mexico 99%
at Miami FL 7.3 Michigan St 70%
at Pittsburgh 12.4 Western Michigan 82%
Boston College 12.7 at Temple 83%
at West Virginia 0.1 Virginia Tech 50%
Cincinnati 0.9 at Indiana 51%
at Michigan 26.7 Northern Illinois 99%
at Oklahoma 19.8 Nebraska 98%
at Army 33.1 Connecticut 99%
Coastal Carolina 6.3 at Buffalo 66%
at Colorado 1.2 Minnesota 51%
at Kansas St 4.5 Nevada 63%
at Notre Dame 7.4 Purdue 70%
Alabama 10.7 at Florida 79%
SMU 9.0 at Louisiana Tech 75%
at Clemson 24.5 Georgia Tech 99%
at Wake Forest 3.5 Florida St 61%
at Iowa 24.6 Kent St 99%
at Ohio St 24.5 Tulsa 99%
Baylor 15.0 at Kansas 87%
USC 9.9 at Washington St 75%
at Arkansas 21.6 Georgia Southern 98%
Mississippi St 0.3 at Memphis 51%
Northwestern 7.6 at Duke 73%
at Toledo 16.5 Colorado St 89%
at Washington 17.9 Arkansas St 94%
at UTSA 9.7 Middle Tennessee 75%
at Liberty 27.5 Old Dominion 99%
at Georgia 28.2 South Carolina 99%
at Georgia St 1.7 Charlotte 52%
at Texas Tech 19.9 Florida International 98%
Troy 9.3 at Southern Miss 75%
Utah 7.8 at San Diego St 73%
at Penn St 6.7 Auburn 68%
at LSU 17.6 Central Michigan 94%
at North Carolina 9.9 Virginia 75%
at Air Force 5.9 Utah St 65%
Mississippi 11.6 at Tulane 81%
Stanford 15.8 at Vanderbilt 88%
at Texas 32.7 Rice 99%
at Boise St 0.5 Oklahoma St 51%
at BYU 1.3 Arizona St 51%
Iowa St 26.7 at UNLV 99%
at UCLA 10.8 Fresno St 79%
San Jose St 4.9 at Hawaii 63%
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 0 0 0.000
Total 1 0 1.000
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 0 0 0.000
Total 1 0 1.000
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 15 27 0.357
Previous 20 28 0.417
Total 35 55 0.38889
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 35 10 0.778
Previous 34 16 0.680
Total 69 26 0.72632
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.1600 45
Previous 13.2180 50
Total 12.7168 95
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 34 50
vs Spread 47 50
Absolute Error 6 50
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple
Missouri
Clemson
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest