The past week was not kind to either Boston College or The Book.
The Eagles rather lackluster performance at UMass on Saturday resulted in a win, but with the loss of Phil Jurkovec has put at least a temporary damper on the aspirations of the 2021 season.
The Book on the other hand, doing so well in terms of setting spreads, but unfortunately, not so well picking against them, going just 15-27 for the week to now sit 20 games under .500 just two full weeks into the season. This is a position, I can never remember being in at any point in any year I've done this going back 35 years.
Incredibly, The Book's point spread prediction included 1 game where our spread and the closing Vegas line was the same and another 15 where our spread was within one point of what the wiseguys predicted. In those 15 games, we went just 2-13 and therefore lie in the bed we find ourselves.
The Book's best game of the week in terms of delta against the spread was actually UMass and would have covered.
The national rankings now have Georgia as our #1 team, overtaking Alabama based mostly on their strength of record. The Dawgs are #2 in the power rankings and #3 in strength of record, with Bama at #1 in the power but only 21st in SOR. Iowa and Penn State round out the top four, with Oregon jumping 9 spots to #5 after their win at Ohio State.
As for the Eagles, they dropped one spot to #54 following the win in Amherst. That mid 50s ranking is very much where the majority of the computer polls see the Eagles. As mentioned last week, don't expect that to rise much in the short term as BC has played the dead last, #130 in the country, strength of schedule to date, per our metrics.
BC goes to Temple this week as a 12.7 point favorite. The opening line in Vegas (remember, our standings are vs the closing line) have the Eagles as 16 point favorites, that number is down to 15 1/2 as of Tuesday night.
Thre will be no Book posting next week as I will be away celebrating our wedding anniversary! Back in two weeks, hopefully with better results.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles.
Legend: Rank - Book combined power and strength of record rank, Sagarin - Jeff Sagarin computer ratings, Massey - Kenneth Massey Computer Composite Rankings, ESPN FPI - ESPN's Football Power Index Rankings, AP - Associated Press Writers Poll , Coaches - ESPN Coaches Poll, CFP - College Football Playoff Rankings, Change from last week - movement up or down in the Book rankings
RANK | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP | CHANGE FROM LAST WK |
1 | GEORGIA | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | N/A | 2 |
2 | ALABAMA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | N/A | (1) |
3 | IOWA | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 7 | N/A | 5 |
4 | PENN ST | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | N/A | 2 |
5 | OREGON | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4 | N/A | 9 |
6 | TEXAS A&M | 2 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 5 | N/A | 1 |
7 | MICHIGAN | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 25 | 25 | N/A | 10 |
8 | OKLAHOMA | 2 | 0 | 3 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | N/A | (3) |
9 | FLORIDA | 2 | 0 | 12 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 9 | N/A | 1 |
10 | NOTRE DAME | 2 | 0 | 21 | 9 | 34 | 12 | 16 | 12 | 10 | N/A | 2 |
11 | VIRGINIA TECH | 2 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 15 | N/A | 7 |
12 | UCLA | 2 | 0 | 24 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 25 | 13 | 13 | N/A | (10) |
13 | MISSISSIPPI | 2 | 0 | 18 | 25 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 16 | N/A | 2 |
14 | ARKANSAS | 2 | 0 | 33 | 11 | 41 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 24 | N/A | 20 |
15 | BYU | 2 | 0 | 41 | 7 | 72 | 19 | 50 | 23 | 23 | N/A | 15 |
16 | CINCINNATI | 2 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 8 | 8 | N/A | 0 |
17 | MISSISSIPPI ST | 2 | 0 | 38 | 10 | 38 | 39 | 32 | N/A | 14 | ||
18 | KENTUCKY | 2 | 0 | 37 | 16 | 25 | 35 | 30 | N/A | 14 | ||
19 | PITTSBURGH | 2 | 0 | 34 | 20 | 37 | 34 | 17 | N/A | 16 | ||
20 | OKLAHOMA ST | 2 | 0 | 30 | 23 | 29 | 27 | 55 | 22 | N/A | 6 | |
21 | KANSAS ST | 2 | 0 | 54 | 13 | 21 | 37 | 64 | N/A | 2 | ||
22 | TCU | 2 | 0 | 26 | 30 | 16 | 21 | 28 | N/A | 15 | ||
23 | AUBURN | 2 | 0 | 13 | 49 | 12 | 17 | 10 | 22 | 20 | N/A | (4) |
24 | PURDUE | 2 | 0 | 44 | 22 | 54 | 43 | 39 | N/A | 9 | ||
25 | OHIO ST | 1 | 1 | 5 | 55 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 11 | N/A | (21) |
26 | UCF | 2 | 0 | 29 | 33 | 26 | 25 | 31 | N/A | (5) | ||
27 | VIRGINIA | 2 | 0 | 31 | 34 | 40 | 32 | 24 | N/A | 21 | ||
28 | RUTGERS | 2 | 0 | 67 | 17 | 53 | 49 | 46 | N/A | 15 | ||
29 | MICHIGAN ST | 2 | 0 | 48 | 27 | 73 | 36 | 26 | N/A | 0 | ||
30 | ARIZONA ST | 2 | 0 | 28 | 39 | 24 | 30 | 40 | 19 | 21 | N/A | 10 |
31 | TEXAS TECH | 2 | 0 | 57 | 28 | 50 | 59 | 54 | N/A | (7) | ||
32 | MEMPHIS | 2 | 0 | 56 | 29 | 59 | 55 | 51 | N/A | 14 | ||
33 | CLEMSON | 1 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | N/A | 6 |
34 | COASTAL CAROLINA | 2 | 0 | 43 | 41 | 56 | 31 | 45 | 16 | 18 | N/A | 11 |
35 | NEVADA | 2 | 0 | 65 | 32 | 49 | 47 | 76 | N/A | 3 | ||
36 | WISCONSIN | 1 | 1 | 14 | 58 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 17 | N/A | 20 |
37 | SMU | 2 | 0 | 52 | 38 | 47 | 48 | 36 | N/A | 14 | ||
38 | ARMY | 2 | 0 | 86 | 15 | 96 | 52 | 67 | N/A | 9 | ||
39 | LIBERTY | 2 | 0 | 59 | 36 | 84 | 42 | 87 | N/A | 18 | ||
40 | SAN DIEGO ST | 2 | 0 | 77 | 26 | 70 | 65 | 72 | N/A | 21 | ||
41 | MARYLAND | 2 | 0 | 51 | 44 | 57 | 40 | 49 | N/A | (13) | ||
42 | WYOMING | 2 | 0 | 87 | 19 | 65 | 81 | 89 | N/A | 18 | ||
43 | MIAMI FL | 1 | 1 | 22 | 54 | 39 | 29 | 21 | 24 | N/A | 20 | |
44 | IOWA ST | 1 | 1 | 16 | 59 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 14 | 14 | N/A | (33) |
45 | NORTH CAROLINA | 1 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 21 | 19 | N/A | 25 |
46 | TEXAS | 1 | 1 | 17 | 60 | 20 | 20 | 19 | N/A | (37) | ||
47 | NEBRASKA | 2 | 1 | 40 | 50 | 51 | 50 | 37 | N/A | 22 | ||
48 | BAYLOR | 2 | 0 | 50 | 47 | 44 | 54 | 43 | N/A | (12) | ||
49 | WAKE FOREST | 2 | 0 | 64 | 45 | 52 | 51 | 63 | N/A | (7) | ||
50 | UTAH ST | 2 | 0 | 97 | 18 | 89 | 86 | 94 | N/A | 14 | ||
51 | SOUTH CAROLINA | 2 | 0 | 72 | 43 | 66 | 68 | 62 | N/A | 14 | ||
52 | MARSHALL | 2 | 0 | 74 | 42 | 61 | 57 | 71 | N/A | (8) | ||
53 | USC | 1 | 1 | 20 | 65 | 27 | 28 | 35 | N/A | (40) | ||
54 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 2 | 0 | 60 | 51 | 58 | 60 | 47 | N/A | (1) | ||
55 | FRESNO ST | 2 | 1 | 62 | 52 | 67 | 69 | 44 | N/A | (1) | ||
56 | UTSA | 2 | 0 | 84 | 40 | 88 | 67 | 65 | N/A | (7) | ||
57 | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1 | 46 | 57 | 55 | 53 | 59 | N/A | 17 | ||
58 | UTAH | 1 | 1 | 27 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 33 | N/A | (38) | ||
59 | LSU | 1 | 1 | 19 | 89 | 17 | 33 | 34 | N/A | 7 | ||
60 | APPALACHIAN ST | 1 | 1 | 39 | 61 | 45 | 44 | 29 | N/A | (35) | ||
61 | STANFORD | 1 | 1 | 47 | 56 | 22 | 45 | 52 | N/A | 33 | ||
62 | AIR FORCE | 2 | 0 | 88 | 46 | 75 | 66 | 105 | N/A | 18 | ||
63 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 1 | 1 | 35 | 68 | 35 | 56 | 27 | N/A | (41) | ||
64 | INDIANA | 1 | 1 | 23 | 82 | 33 | 26 | 38 | N/A | 14 | ||
65 | MISSOURI | 1 | 1 | 49 | 63 | 36 | 62 | 53 | N/A | (38) | ||
66 | BOISE ST | 1 | 1 | 42 | 74 | 28 | 41 | 48 | N/A | 24 | ||
67 | SOUTH ALABAMA | 2 | 0 | 116 | 24 | 108 | 97 | 103 | N/A | 10 | ||
68 | CHARLOTTE | 2 | 0 | 110 | 37 | 107 | 96 | 110 | N/A | 5 | ||
69 | TENNESSEE | 1 | 1 | 55 | 75 | 64 | 74 | 60 | N/A | (28) | ||
70 | FLORIDA ATLANTIC | 1 | 1 | 75 | 62 | 82 | 76 | 66 | N/A | 31 | ||
71 | HOUSTON | 1 | 1 | 70 | 73 | 69 | 80 | 84 | N/A | 29 | ||
72 | OREGON ST | 1 | 1 | 73 | 67 | 62 | 73 | 80 | N/A | 27 | ||
73 | TULANE | 1 | 1 | 45 | 96 | 63 | 61 | 41 | N/A | 12 | ||
74 | LOUISVILLE | 1 | 1 | 53 | 91 | 77 | 75 | 73 | N/A | 18 | ||
75 | COLORADO | 1 | 1 | 58 | 83 | 42 | 58 | 58 | N/A | (17) | ||
76 | LOUISIANA | 1 | 1 | 69 | 78 | 80 | 64 | 81 | N/A | 12 | ||
77 | WEST VIRGINIA | 1 | 1 | 36 | 108 | 32 | 46 | 42 | N/A | 9 | ||
78 | UAB | 1 | 1 | 80 | 72 | 87 | 77 | 82 | N/A | (26) | ||
79 | TOLEDO | 1 | 1 | 63 | 94 | 46 | 70 | 57 | N/A | (17) | ||
80 | NORTHWESTERN | 1 | 1 | 68 | 93 | 76 | 63 | 68 | N/A | 15 | ||
81 | WESTERN MICHIGAN | 1 | 1 | 81 | 77 | 68 | 90 | 86 | N/A | 21 | ||
82 | SYRACUSE | 1 | 1 | 91 | 70 | 90 | 89 | 92 | N/A | (32) | ||
83 | GEORGIA TECH | 1 | 1 | 71 | 97 | 83 | 94 | 70 | N/A | 22 | ||
84 | NEW MEXICO | 2 | 0 | 121 | 48 | 120 | 108 | 121 | N/A | 12 | ||
85 | SAN JOSE ST | 1 | 1 | 83 | 92 | 81 | 72 | 96 | N/A | (10) | ||
86 | ILLINOIS | 1 | 2 | 93 | 76 | 99 | 92 | 85 | N/A | (27) | ||
87 | WASHINGTON ST | 1 | 1 | 78 | 99 | 74 | 87 | 88 | N/A | 16 | ||
88 | BALL ST | 0 | 2 | 90 | 84 | 79 | 79 | 101 | N/A | (20) | ||
89 | NORTHERN ILLINOIS | 1 | 1 | 100 | 66 | 86 | 106 | 99 | N/A | (34) | ||
90 | KENT ST | 1 | 1 | 89 | 88 | 60 | 84 | 91 | N/A | 16 | ||
91 | TROY | 1 | 1 | 79 | 101 | 93 | 83 | 61 | N/A | (24) | ||
92 | ARKANSAS ST | 1 | 1 | 95 | 90 | 97 | 99 | 90 | N/A | (21) | ||
93 | CENTRAL MICHIGAN | 1 | 1 | 82 | 104 | 71 | 88 | 77 | N/A | 11 | ||
94 | LOUISIANA TECH | 1 | 1 | 101 | 81 | 100 | 95 | 100 | N/A | 18 | ||
95 | WASHINGTON | 0 | 2 | 32 | 116 | 43 | 71 | 56 | N/A | (13) | ||
96 | TEXAS ST | 1 | 1 | 115 | 71 | 119 | 107 | 102 | N/A | 23 | ||
97 | BUFFALO | 1 | 1 | 85 | 107 | 78 | 78 | 74 | N/A | (25) | ||
98 | MIDDLE TENNESSEE | 1 | 1 | 104 | 86 | 103 | 101 | 93 | N/A | (19) | ||
99 | DUKE | 1 | 1 | 92 | 102 | 94 | 100 | 79 | N/A | 16 | ||
100 | EASTERN MICHIGAN | 1 | 1 | 99 | 95 | 91 | 102 | 97 | N/A | (16) | ||
101 | VANDERBILT | 1 | 1 | 109 | 80 | 113 | 114 | 119 | N/A | 21 | ||
102 | TEMPLE | 1 | 1 | 112 | 79 | 109 | 115 | 115 | N/A | 18 | ||
103 | WESTERN KENTUCKY | 1 | 1 | 98 | 100 | 98 | 91 | 83 | N/A | (20) | ||
104 | UTEP | 2 | 1 | 124 | 53 | 124 | 118 | 120 | N/A | (28) | ||
105 | CALIFORNIA | 0 | 2 | 61 | 115 | 48 | 82 | 75 | N/A | (7) | ||
106 | KANSAS | 1 | 1 | 118 | 87 | 106 | 112 | 116 | N/A | (17) | ||
107 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN | 1 | 1 | 106 | 103 | 111 | 104 | 114 | N/A | (26) | ||
108 | NORTH TEXAS | 1 | 1 | 114 | 98 | 112 | 111 | 95 | N/A | (17) | ||
109 | HAWAII | 1 | 2 | 107 | 105 | 105 | 103 | 109 | N/A | (16) | ||
110 | SOUTHERN MISS | 1 | 1 | 113 | 109 | 115 | 113 | 107 | N/A | 11 | ||
111 | FLORIDA ST | 0 | 2 | 66 | 127 | 92 | 93 | 69 | N/A | (24) | ||
112 | TULSA | 0 | 2 | 76 | 124 | 85 | 85 | 78 | N/A | (1) | ||
113 | MIAMI OH | 0 | 2 | 96 | 113 | 95 | 98 | 104 | N/A | (4) | ||
114 | FLORIDA INTL | 1 | 1 | 117 | 110 | 121 | 119 | 108 | N/A | (17) | ||
115 | EAST CAROLINA | 0 | 2 | 94 | 119 | 101 | 105 | 98 | N/A | (8) | ||
116 | GEORGIA ST | 0 | 2 | 105 | 114 | 114 | 109 | 113 | N/A | (3) | ||
117 | SOUTH FLORIDA | 0 | 2 | 111 | 112 | 117 | 122 | 112 | N/A | (1) | ||
118 | ARIZONA | 0 | 2 | 103 | 120 | 102 | 110 | 106 | N/A | (10) | ||
119 | OLD DOMINION | 1 | 1 | 125 | 106 | 123 | 123 | 124 | N/A | 7 | ||
120 | COLORADO ST | 0 | 2 | 108 | 126 | 110 | 121 | 117 | N/A | (6) | ||
121 | RICE | 0 | 2 | 120 | 118 | 122 | 120 | 111 | N/A | (4) | ||
122 | NAVY | 0 | 2 | 119 | 123 | 116 | 117 | 126 | N/A | (4) | ||
123 | LA MONROE | 0 | 1 | 123 | 111 | 125 | 125 | 123 | N/A | 1 | ||
124 | OHIO | 0 | 2 | 102 | 128 | 104 | 116 | 122 | N/A | (14) | ||
125 | UNLV | 0 | 2 | 122 | 122 | 118 | 124 | 118 | N/A | 0 | ||
126 | AKRON | 0 | 2 | 127 | 121 | 127 | 129 | 128 | N/A | (3) | ||
127 | BOWLING GREEN | 0 | 2 | 126 | 125 | 126 | 128 | 127 | N/A | 0 | ||
128 | MASSACHUSETTS | 0 | 2 | 128 | 117 | 128 | 126 | 125 | N/A | 0 | ||
129 | NEW MEXICO ST | 0 | 3 | 129 | 129 | 129 | 127 | 129 | N/A | 0 | ||
130 | CONNECTICUT | 0 | 3 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | 130 | N/A | 0 | ||
ACC | TEAM | WON | LOST | POWER | SOR | SAGARIN | MASSEY | ESPN FPI |
AP | COACHES | CFP | CHANGE FROM LAST WK |
1 | VIRGINIA TECH | 2 | 0 | 25 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 15 | N/A | 0 |
2 | PITTSBURGH | 2 | 0 | 34 | 20 | 37 | 34 | 17 | N/A | 1 | ||
3 | VIRGINIA | 2 | 0 | 31 | 34 | 40 | 32 | 24 | N/A | 3 | ||
4 | CLEMSON | 1 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 6 | N/A | 0 |
5 | MIAMI FL | 1 | 1 | 22 | 54 | 39 | 29 | 21 | 24 | N/A | 4 | |
6 | NORTH CAROLINA | 1 | 1 | 11 | 64 | 23 | 22 | 11 | 21 | 19 | N/A | 4 |
7 | WAKE FOREST | 2 | 0 | 64 | 45 | 52 | 51 | 63 | N/A | (2) | ||
8 | BOSTON COLLEGE | 2 | 0 | 60 | 51 | 58 | 60 | 47 | N/A | 0 | ||
9 | NORTH CAROLINA ST | 1 | 1 | 35 | 68 | 35 | 56 | 27 | N/A | (7) | ||
10 | LOUISVILLE | 1 | 1 | 53 | 91 | 77 | 75 | 73 | N/A | 2 | ||
11 | SYRACUSE | 1 | 1 | 91 | 70 | 90 | 89 | 92 | N/A | (4) | ||
12 | GEORGIA TECH | 1 | 1 | 71 | 97 | 83 | 94 | 70 | N/A | 1 | ||
13 | DUKE | 1 | 1 | 92 | 102 | 94 | 100 | 79 | N/A | 1 | ||
14 | FLORIDA ST | 0 | 2 | 66 | 127 | 92 | 93 | 69 | N/A | (2) |
FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG | WIN PROBABILITY |
at Louisiana | 11.9 | Ohio | 81% |
UCF | 1.4 | at Louisville | 51% |
Maryland | 8.9 | at Illinois | 75% |
UAB | 6.1 | at North Texas | 66% |
at Marshall | 11.1 | East Carolina | 80% |
Eastern Michigan | 17.0 | at UMass | 91% |
at Wyoming | 3.3 | Ball St | 57% |
at Texas A&M | 38.3 | New Mexico | 99% |
at Miami FL | 7.3 | Michigan St | 70% |
at Pittsburgh | 12.4 | Western Michigan | 82% |
Boston College | 12.7 | at Temple | 83% |
at West Virginia | 0.1 | Virginia Tech | 50% |
Cincinnati | 0.9 | at Indiana | 51% |
at Michigan | 26.7 | Northern Illinois | 99% |
at Oklahoma | 19.8 | Nebraska | 98% |
at Army | 33.1 | Connecticut | 99% |
Coastal Carolina | 6.3 | at Buffalo | 66% |
at Colorado | 1.2 | Minnesota | 51% |
at Kansas St | 4.5 | Nevada | 63% |
at Notre Dame | 7.4 | Purdue | 70% |
Alabama | 10.7 | at Florida | 79% |
SMU | 9.0 | at Louisiana Tech | 75% |
at Clemson | 24.5 | Georgia Tech | 99% |
at Wake Forest | 3.5 | Florida St | 61% |
at Iowa | 24.6 | Kent St | 99% |
at Ohio St | 24.5 | Tulsa | 99% |
Baylor | 15.0 | at Kansas | 87% |
USC | 9.9 | at Washington St | 75% |
at Arkansas | 21.6 | Georgia Southern | 98% |
Mississippi St | 0.3 | at Memphis | 51% |
Northwestern | 7.6 | at Duke | 73% |
at Toledo | 16.5 | Colorado St | 89% |
at Washington | 17.9 | Arkansas St | 94% |
at UTSA | 9.7 | Middle Tennessee | 75% |
at Liberty | 27.5 | Old Dominion | 99% |
at Georgia | 28.2 | South Carolina | 99% |
at Georgia St | 1.7 | Charlotte | 52% |
at Texas Tech | 19.9 | Florida International | 98% |
Troy | 9.3 | at Southern Miss | 75% |
Utah | 7.8 | at San Diego St | 73% |
at Penn St | 6.7 | Auburn | 68% |
at LSU | 17.6 | Central Michigan | 94% |
at North Carolina | 9.9 | Virginia | 75% |
at Air Force | 5.9 | Utah St | 65% |
Mississippi | 11.6 | at Tulane | 81% |
Stanford | 15.8 | at Vanderbilt | 88% |
at Texas | 32.7 | Rice | 99% |
at Boise St | 0.5 | Oklahoma St | 51% |
at BYU | 1.3 | Arizona St | 51% |
Iowa St | 26.7 | at UNLV | 99% |
at UCLA | 10.8 | Fresno St | 79% |
San Jose St | 4.9 | at Hawaii | 63% |
BC Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Total | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
BC vs Spread | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Total | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Pct. |
Week | 15 | 27 | 0.357 |
Previous | 20 | 28 | 0.417 |
Total | 35 | 55 | 0.38889 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 35 | 10 | 0.778 |
Previous | 34 | 16 | 0.680 |
Total | 69 | 26 | 0.72632 |
Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 12.1600 | 45 | |
Previous | 13.2180 | 50 | |
Total | 12.7168 | 95 | |
Prediction Tracker | Rank | # of Polls | |
Straight Up | 34 | 50 | |
vs Spread | 47 | 50 | |
Absolute Error | 6 | 50 | |
BC Opponents | straight | spread | |
UMass | 1-0 | 1-0 | |
Temple | |||
Missouri | |||
Clemson | |||
NC State | |||
Louisville | |||
Syracuse | |||
Virginia Tech | |||
Georgia Tech | |||
Florida State | |||
Wake Forest |