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Pro Football Focus projects 8 wins for Boston College this year. What do you think?

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Louisville v Boston College Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Pro Football Focus continued releasing its college football previews this week, and has put out win total projections for each ACC team.

PFF used their model to run 10,000 simulations of the season and created projected win totals and conference title odds for all ACC teams. Their model remains bullish on BC, projecting BC to finish with 7.9 wins, 4th overall in the ACC and 2nd in the ACC Atlantic. The model gives BC 10% odds to appear in the ACC title game and 4% odds to win it.

From PFF:

Boston College has had one of the best offensive lines in the ACC in each of the last three seasons, and that’s not going to change in 2021. The offensive line tied for third in the Power Five in pass-block grade last season, and the Eagles return every single starter from that group. They’ll be blocking once again for quarterback Phil Jurkovec, who was one of the more exciting quarterbacks to watch in the ACC last year with his playmaking ability under duress. He’ll have his top target, Zay Flowers, back — those two teamed up for the third-most 15-plus yard pass plays among ACC QB-WR connections last year with 25.

One of the big issues with last year’s team was its coverage unit. The Eagles ranked third-to-last in the ACC in EPA per pass play allowed. Cornerback Josh DeBerry was the only quality performer from the secondary last season and is back to lead the group in 2021. Alongside him is Brandon Sebastian, who has steadily declined since taking over a starting job in 2018. He looked like the next great player to come from Boston College that year with a 75.2 coverage grade, but this past season was well below that level of play with a 58.4 coverage grade. Getting back to that old form and helping the Eagles get closer to the mean from a defensive perspective would be huge for this team in 2021.

Unlike the trend in the last decade or so which had seen the Atlantic be the more stacked ACC division, the PFF projections show more Coastal teams toward the top of the league... with the big caveat of course being that the #1 team is Clemson in the Atlantic, given an 80% chance of going to the conference title game and a 58% chance of winning it.

With three non-conference games to start the year that BC will be projected to win (Colgate, UMass, Temple) before a tougher matchup against Missouri, then the traditional 8-game ACC schedule, something like a 3-1 nonconference record and 5-3 ACC, or 4-0 nonconference and 4-4 ACC, would get BC to that 8 win mark - a mark they have not reached since 2009.

What do you think? Over or under PFF’s projection?