FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 15 - December 11

Our CFP Results and Why?

At the start of every season, I always say that things will wash out in the long run. Early on, our Book poll looks awkward, but week after week, it inches closer to what you see out of the major polls, the CFP committee and of course, the other computer polls.

This year, particularly where there is relatively strong consensus that the committee got it right in selecting Alabama, Michigan, Georgia and Cincinnati, in that order, as the teams to participate in the playoff, we look off.

Our final six consist of 1. Georgia, 2. Alabama, 3. Michigan, 4. Ohio State, 5. Notre Dame and 6. Cincinnati, with Baylor finishing 8th, behind the team they beat for the Big 12 title, Oklahoma State.

Yuck...or so it appears. But why?

Let's take a look at a few factors.

The Book is meant to be both predictive and reward deserving teams, at least with the way the final poll is structured. Combining them both, gives us our rankings. That said, deserving is best measured by our Strength of Record, where you see the CFP four in exactly the order the committee had them.

The Book and all of these computer systems, do not care about individual games, head to head matchups, etc. Some, like ours, weight every game evenly, some adjust more early and less later in the year, but this doesn't take into consideration Cincinnati beating Notre Dame or Alabama beating Georgia, rather the entirety of the body of work, equally.

But Georgia still #1?

I get it and it's pretty clear that at least last Saturday, Alabama was the superior team, but once again, it's not about one game, but the totality of the season and Georgia had built a pretty substantial power rating edge over the Tide.

How close was it though?

If nothing more happened than Georgia beating Georgia Tech and Alabama beating Auburn by the predicted point spread, with nothing else changing, the Tide would be #1 overall and in the power ratings, heading to the playoff.

Army Navy Week

Only one game this week and that's Army/Navy. It's a game I never miss and treasure, despite the relative strength of the academies. In this world of playoff or bust, it's a throwback to when games at every level mattered.

The Book has Army as a modest 2.8 point favorite with the Vegas opening line at 8. In our listed picks for the year, Army's been involved twice against the spread, losing both times vs Western Kentucky and UMass, while on the Money Line, winning 4 times and losing once, netting 3.2 units on the season.

With Navy, we're 4-3 vs the spread for a +0.70 units and 2-6 for a -1.6 units vs the ML.

BC and The ACC

Pittsburgh is your ACC champion and we concur, moving the Panthers up five spots for their title game win, securing 10th nationally and moving ahead of Clemson for our ACC crown.

Clemson finished 2nd, NC State 3rd and Wake Forest, who we always felt was overrated along with Oregon and Michigan State, finished 4th. Two of those three completely collapsed down the stretch, while Michigan State got drubbed in their final exam against Ohio State.

Boston College stayed 11th in the ACC, but dropped two spots to 73rd overall, despite not playing themselves. The Eagles were a victim of Wake Forest's loss, hurting their overall strength of record.

My Betting Model

No plays last week on the money line and just two against the spread, going 1-1 with a -0.10 loss for the week. We won on Cincinnati over Houston, with the Book having a +6.2 margin edge (-16.7 for us and -10.5 for Vegas). Our metrics indicate anything greater than 5.5 is a winner for us.

The loss was Western Kentucky in the CUSA title game at UTSA. The Hilltoppers actually trailed by 29 in the 3rd before having a chance to tie the game on their last drive before falling short.

As mentioned above, nothing this week, but we end the regular season at +11 vs the spread and +43.61 vs the money line. Quite solid.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 12 1 1 3 2 2 1 3 3 3 0
2 ALABAMA 12 1 4 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 0
3 MICHIGAN 12 1 3 2 4 3 4 2 2 2 0
4 OHIO ST 10 2 2 8 3 5 3 7 7 6 0
5 NOTRE DAME 11 1 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 0
6 CINCINNATI 13 0 7 4 6 4 7 4 4 4 1
7 OKLAHOMA ST 11 2 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 (1)
8 BAYLOR 11 2 16 7 14 8 18 6 6 7 3
9 OKLAHOMA 10 2 9 14 9 10 6 14 13 16 (1)
10 PITTSBURGH 11 2 12 13 13 11 10 13 12 12 5
11 UTAH 10 3 8 16 8 12 12 10 11 11 5
12 MISSISSIPPI 10 2 17 9 11 9 17 8 8 8 (3)
13 MICHIGAN ST 10 2 29 11 27 13 21 11 10 10 (1)
14 IOWA 10 3 30 12 20 16 35 17 16 15 (4)
15 CLEMSON 9 3 11 23 10 15 11 19 22 19 (1)
16 WISCONSIN 8 4 14 24 12 14 13 1
17 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 18 22 18 20 16 18 18 18 2
18 LOUISIANA 12 1 44 10 46 24 51 16 17 23 11
19 OREGON 10 3 38 15 19 19 26 15 15 14 (6)
20 BYU 10 2 39 18 30 17 39 12 14 13 0
21 WAKE FOREST 10 3 34 19 22 18 28 20 19 17 (3)
22 TEXAS A&M 8 4 13 32 15 21 15 23 23 25 1
23 PURDUE 8 4 23 25 23 22 25 (1)
24 IOWA ST 7 5 10 38 17 27 9 0
25 KENTUCKY 9 3 26 26 21 26 30 25 20 22 0
26 UCLA 8 4 19 31 24 34 31 0
27 MINNESOTA 8 4 20 30 26 30 33 1
28 HOUSTON 11 2 42 21 42 28 41 21 21 20 (1)
29 APPALACHIAN ST 10 3 28 27 41 32 24 (8)
30 PENN ST 7 5 15 36 16 25 14 0
31 ARKANSAS 8 4 22 29 28 23 29 22 24 21 0
32 UTSA 12 1 64 17 52 29 56 24 25 4
33 MISSISSIPPI ST 7 5 27 40 32 33 23 0
34 MIAMI FL 7 5 24 42 36 40 20 0
35 SAN DIEGO ST 11 2 72 20 53 31 71 24 (3)
36 ARIZONA ST 8 4 36 35 34 45 38 (1)
37 KANSAS ST 7 5 40 37 35 41 42 0
38 TENNESSEE 7 5 25 50 33 36 22 0
39 AUBURN 6 6 21 53 25 39 19 1
40 WASHINGTON ST 7 5 35 45 38 48 53 1
41 LSU 6 6 32 48 31 43 37 1
42 UTAH ST 10 3 69 28 57 42 77 10
43 COASTAL CAROLINA 10 2 56 33 55 47 43 (4)
44 FRESNO ST 9 3 51 34 45 38 55 (1)
45 OREGON ST 7 5 43 46 39 49 48 (1)
46 AIR FORCE 9 3 50 39 44 37 68 (1)
47 LOUISVILLE 6 6 37 58 48 51 45 (1)
48 NORTH CAROLINA 6 6 33 64 47 55 36 1
49 SMU 8 4 55 44 51 50 46 (2)
50 BOISE ST 7 5 46 51 29 35 40 0
51 NEVADA 8 4 54 49 43 46 54 0
52 TEXAS 5 7 41 69 37 52 27 1
53 FLORIDA 6 6 45 68 40 56 32 1
54 WESTERN KENTUCKY 8 5 48 60 59 54 47 (6)
55 TEXAS TECH 6 6 52 54 65 61 60 0
56 WEST VIRGINIA 6 6 49 65 50 53 50 1
57 UAB 8 4 62 52 72 59 63 (1)
58 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 8 4 59 55 68 62 78 0
59 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 56 58 57 44 0
60 UCF 8 4 71 47 62 60 62 0
61 VIRGINIA TECH 6 6 53 67 61 67 49 1
62 ARMY 8 3 80 43 56 44 57 (1)
63 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 74 60 70 52 0
64 GEORGIA ST 7 5 70 57 89 73 87 1
65 EAST CAROLINA 7 5 68 59 79 65 81 (1)
66 TULSA 6 6 63 70 77 74 74 0
67 ILLINOIS 5 7 61 73 70 68 65 0
68 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 9 4 95 41 87 63 97 10
69 MISSOURI 6 6 74 61 73 69 76 (1)
70 TOLEDO 7 5 58 80 66 76 58 0
71 CALIFORNIA 5 7 57 83 54 82 66 11
72 MARYLAND 6 6 79 63 74 58 75 (3)
73 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 67 76 75 78 69 (2)
74 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 6 84 62 67 64 73 (2)
75 NEBRASKA 3 9 31 96 49 72 34 0
76 WESTERN MICHIGAN 7 5 85 66 76 71 79 (3)
77 MARSHALL 7 5 73 72 78 77 64 (3)
78 LIBERTY 2 3 78 71 69 66 67 (2)
79 MEMPHIS 6 6 77 79 82 81 80 1
80 TCU 5 7 81 75 71 75 70 (1)
81 USC 4 8 65 87 64 83 59 (4)
82 SYRACUSE 5 7 75 81 80 79 72 (1)
83 WASHINGTON 4 8 66 92 63 89 61 1
84 COLORADO 4 8 76 90 84 92 86 1
85 RUTGERS 5 7 88 82 81 80 82 1
86 MIAMI OH 6 6 83 91 86 84 85 1
87 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7 5 98 77 94 86 91 1
88 WYOMING 6 6 89 85 85 85 92 1
89 KENT ST 7 6 102 78 96 87 100 (6)
90 BALL ST 6 6 96 86 88 88 93 0
91 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 6 6 94 89 97 96 89 0
92 NORTH TEXAS 6 6 90 93 100 93 96 0
93 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 97 90 94 83 1
94 HAWAII 6 7 101 88 92 90 102 (1)
95 STANFORD 3 9 91 95 83 98 88 0
96 NAVY 3 8 87 101 95 95 104 1
97 OLD DOMINION 6 6 99 94 104 99 105 (1)
98 UTEP 7 5 110 84 108 91 110 0
99 NORTHWESTERN 3 9 92 104 93 101 95 0
100 INDIANA 2 10 93 106 91 97 84 0
101 TROY 5 7 105 100 106 102 101 0
102 TULANE 2 10 82 119 99 105 90 1
103 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 7 106 98 103 103 94 (1)
104 SAN JOSE ST 5 7 108 99 101 100 108 0
105 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 7 109 102 111 106 109 0
106 LA MONROE 4 8 115 103 117 107 120 0
107 COLORADO ST 3 9 104 112 98 104 98 0
108 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 10 100 118 110 111 107 1
109 KANSAS 2 10 112 109 115 109 115 (1)
110 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 9 103 116 114 116 111 0
111 ARIZONA 1 11 97 123 102 117 106 0
112 TEXAS ST 4 8 116 108 123 114 119 0
113 VANDERBILT 2 10 111 115 116 120 121 1
114 BUFFALO 4 8 113 113 107 112 99 (1)
115 CHARLOTTE 5 7 122 105 119 115 117 0
116 DUKE 3 9 120 110 113 119 113 0
117 RICE 4 8 121 107 122 110 122 0
118 LOUISIANA TECH 3 9 117 114 112 113 103 0
119 OHIO 3 9 107 122 109 122 114 0
120 UNLV 2 10 114 121 105 108 112 0
121 BOWLING GREEN 4 8 123 111 120 118 123 0
122 ARKANSAS ST 2 10 118 125 118 125 118 0
123 SOUTHERN MISS 3 9 119 124 124 123 116 0
124 NEW MEXICO 3 9 124 120 121 121 124 0
125 TEMPLE 3 9 126 117 125 124 125 0
126 AKRON 2 10 125 127 126 127 128 0
127 NEW MEXICO ST 2 10 127 126 127 126 127 0
128 CONNECTICUT 1 11 128 128 128 128 129 0
129 FLORIDA INTL 1 11 129 130 129 130 126 0
130 MASSACHUSETTS 1 11 130 129 130 129 130 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 PITTSBURGH 11 2 12 13 13 11 10 13 12 12 1
2 CLEMSON 9 3 11 23 10 15 11 19 22 19 (1)
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 18 22 18 20 16 18 18 18 1
4 WAKE FOREST 10 3 34 19 22 18 28 20 19 17 (1)
5 MIAMI FL 7 5 24 42 36 40 20 0
6 LOUISVILLE 6 6 37 58 48 51 45 0
7 NORTH CAROLINA 6 6 33 64 47 55 36 0
8 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 56 58 57 44 0
9 VIRGINIA TECH 6 6 53 67 61 67 49 0
10 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 74 60 70 52 0
11 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 67 76 75 78 69 0
12 SYRACUSE 5 7 75 81 80 79 72 0
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 97 90 94 83 0
14 DUKE 3 9 120 110 113 119 113 0
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 0 0 0.000
Previous 8 3 0.727
Total 8 3 0.727
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 0 0.000
Previous 4 7 0.364
Total 4 7 0.364
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 4 7 0.364
Previous 325 377 0.463
Total 329 384 0.46143
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 5 6 0.455
Previous 506 214 0.703
Total 511 220 0.69904
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 19.1364 11
Previous 12.9049 664
Total 13.0064 675
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up T38 54
vs Spread 52 54
Absolute Error 9 54
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State 1-0 0-1
Louisville 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 1-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 0-1 0-1
Georgia Tech 0-1 0-1
Florida State 0-1 1-0
Wake Forest 1-0 0-1
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1.00 1.00
Temple 1.00 (1.10)
Missouri 1.00 1.00
Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
NC State 1.00 (1.10)
Louisville 1.00 1.00
Syracuse 1.00 (1.10)
Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Georgia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Florida State (1.00) 1.00
Wake Forest 1.00 (1.10)
Profit/Loss 5.00 (3.70)
Money Line Picks Units
Week 0.00
Previous 43.61
Total 43.61
Spread Picks Units
Week (0.10)
Previous 11.10
Total 11.00
Spread By Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 2.00 2 0
Week 2 1.00 1 0
Week 3 2.00 2 0
Week 4 0.00 0 0
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 (1.10) 0 1
Week 7 1.00 1 0
Week 8 2.00 2 0
Week 9 (2.20) 0 2
Week 10 0.90 2 1
Week 11 0.80 3 2
Week 12 0.00 0 0
Week 13 3.70 7 3
Week 14 (0.10) 1 1
Total 11.00 22 10
Money Line by Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 3.00 1 4
Week 2 8.75 2 3
Week 3 (2.00) 1 7
Week 4 0.10 1 3
Week 5 6.60 3 3
Week 6 11.75 3 4
Week 7 2.00 1 2
Week 8 1.25 1 3
Week 9 2.40 1 1
Week 10 7.74 3 2
Week 11 (1.00) 0 1
Week 12 2.50 1 3
Week 13 0.52 1 3
Week 14 0.00 0 0
Total 43.61 19 39