It's bowl season and although for many it's the most wonderful time of the year, the bowls certainly aren't what they used to be. I vividly remember selling Tangerine Bowl tee-shirts (probably still have one somewhere) before the Syracuse game in 1982 as the Eagles garnered their first bowl bid in 40 years to play Auburn. At that time, there were only 16 bowl games, so being invited, for the majority of schools, was still a big deal. Now not so much and it has hurt our final ratings as well as our betting picks.
With so many players opting out, coaches getting fired or taking different jobs, outside of the CFP games, the remainder of the bowls are not only glorified exhibitions, but have little resemblance to the model for The Book we created for the regular season.
From the time Christian McCaffrey decided to skip the Sun Bowl against North Carolina in 2016, it just hasn't been the same and it's only getting more pronounced. Since 2016, here is how we've done in the regular season vs the bowls and CFP. Over those years, we've constantly adjusted the criteria and that has something to do with it...but you can see a slide downward with both the numbers overall and particularly the bowls.
2016 Regular Season: 382-315 .548
2016 Bowls/CFP: 25-16 .610
(note against a vague Vegas line)
2017 Regular Season: 360-353-15 .505
2017 Bowls/CFP: 20-17-1 .539
(note against a vague Vegas line - we've since taken pushes out)
2018 Regular Season: 371-328-17 .530
2018 Bowls/CFP: 17-19-2 .474
(note against a vague Vegas line - we've since taken pushes out)
2019 Regular Season: 351-360 .494
2019 Bowls/CFP: 20-18 .526
(first year vs closing Vegas spread)
2020 Regular Season: 253-242 .511
2020 Bowls/CFP: 9-16 .360
In the off season, I am probably going to retroactively look at the closing lines I use now to get apples to apples numbers, but it won't change the fact that we are losing ground...so why?
Let's look at how lines are set.
Contrary to popular belief, there isn't some God of Odds who lays down the line, rather, like pretty much all the computer systems that are out there, there is a computer model that calculates things like talent, recruiting, returning production and key offensive and defensive statistics, that creates a power rating. Add to that a home field advantage, modify it based on results during the year and you've got point spreads.
Once an opening line is created, at that point, the betting public moves the number based on the books trying to create equal wagering on both sides, therefore collecting the juice or the vigorish, which is the percentage the sports books charge for making a bet...for most straight line bets -110 or you need to be $1.10 to win $1.00.
With my system similar to others, albeit unique to me, I've been caught up in being a like system to the sportsbooks, and therefore tend to fall into being so close to the spreads that are actually set, I don't make up the vig or the 2.4% to make a profit.
To show you this isn't unique, take a look at Prediction Tracker and how people a lot smarter than I am do.
In 2011 of 67 computer polls, 36 of them finished above .500 against the closing Vegas spread.
In 2016 of 63, there were 39
In 2021 though, only 13 of 53 are above .500 with one right at .500 and of course, we are having our worst season ever at just over 46%.
What might be a course to consider though is absolute error or the margin between the model's predicted spread and the actual score. The leader this year against the spread, is dead last in that category.
My Betting Model
We did hit on the spread picking Navy to cover the points, but it wasn't one we officially played as it didn't meet the edge metric.
As mentioned above, the bowls are a very different beast than the regular season. Rather than using the same edge metrics we used for regular season games, I am going to look at this in two ways. First, the standard edge we've used to handpick games vs the spread and the money line for 2021 and secondly, use the past five seasons results for bowl games only and compare the two.
That means against the point spread, we are looking for an edge of 5.5 or greater to use for the 2021 model and 3.7 points or greater for the bowl model. While for money line bets, anything +280 or better for 2021 and anything +210 or better for bowl games only.
Remember, these are against the OPENING Vegas lines, as outside the closing lines (which you in theory couldn't bet against) are the most consistent point of reference, also likely are the one where we will have the biggest edge in our model.
Our Pick | Spread | Opponent |
Edge greater than 5.5 | ||
Central Michigan | 10.0 | Boise State |
North Carolina | (5.5) | South Carolina |
Oklahoma | (4.0) | Oregon |
Cincinnati | 13.0 | Alabama |
Missouri | 3.0 | Army |
Louisville | 1.0 | Air Force |
Adding edge greater than 3.7 | ||
Louisiana | (5.5) | Marshall |
Michigan | 7.0 | Georgia |
Tulsa | (7.0) | Old Dominion |
Pittsburgh | (3.5) | Michigan State |
ML edge greater than +210, nothing greater than +280 | ||
Our Pick | ML | Opponent |
Cincinnati | 222 | Alabama |
Cincinnati would seem suicidal. CFP favorites are 17-4 ...3 of the 4 losses though, by Alabama (2015 vs Ohio State, 2017 vs Clemson, 2019 vs Clemson). Two of those three in the title game.
Boston College travels to Annapolis, Maryland for their first ever game against the East Carolina Pirates out of the AAC in the Military Bowl. The Eagles opened at 3 point favorites and at this point are still -3. The Book though leans ECU against the number, with BC just a 0.3 point favorite. Personally, I like the Eagles in this one, with a more rested and healthy defense and Phil Jurkovec.
Our next full poll will come out as the final poll after the National Championship game.
Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!
FAVORITE | SPREAD | UNDERDOG |
Toledo | 10.3 | Middle Tennessee |
Coastal Carolina | 10.9 | Northern Illinois |
Appalachian St | 4.6 | Western Kentucky |
Fresno St | 17.1 | UTEP |
BYU | 6.0 | UAB |
Liberty | 5.9 | Eastern Michigan |
Oregon St | 6.9 | Utah St |
Louisiana | 10.3 | Marshall |
Tulsa | 11.0 | Old Dominion |
Wyoming | 3.6 | Kent St |
UTSA | 2.2 | San Diego St |
Missouri | 2.1 | Army |
Miami OH | 2.2 | North Texas |
Florida | 7.2 | Central Florida |
Memphis | 5.1 | Hawaii |
Georgia St | 7.1 | Ball St |
Nevada | 6.1 | Western Michigan |
Boston College | 0.3 | East Carolina |
Auburn | 5.3 | Houston |
Louisville | 4.0 | Air Force |
Mississippi St | 6.6 | Texas Tech |
North Carolina St | 0.4 | UCLA |
Minnesota | 7.8 | West Virginia |
SMU | 1.2 | Virginia |
Virginia Tech | 6.5 | Maryland |
Iowa St | 0.8 | Clemson |
Oklahoma | 10.0 | Oregon |
North Carolina | 11.9 | South Carolina |
Purdue | 1.1 | Tennessee |
Pittsburgh | 7.4 | Michigan St |
Wisconsin | 7.4 | Arizona St |
Texas A&M | 7.4 | Wake Forest |
Miami FL | 2.6 | Washington St |
Boise St | 2.5 | Central Michigan |
Alabama | 7.3 | Cincinnati |
Georgia | 2.8 | Michigan |
Penn St | 4.4 | Arkansas |
Notre Dame | 2.1 | Oklahoma St |
Kentucky | 1.6 | Iowa |
Ohio St | 9.9 | Utah |
Baylor | 0.2 | Mississippi |
LSU | 1.0 | Kansas St |
Vs The Vegas Spread | Won | Lost | Pct. |
Week | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
Previous | 329 | 384 | 0.461 |
Total | 330 | 384 | 0.46218 |
Straight Up | Won | Lost | Pct |
Week | 0 | 1 | 0.000 |
Previous | 511 | 220 | 0.699 |
Total | 511 | 221 | 0.69809 |
Absolute Error | Avg | Games | |
Week | 6.8000 | 1 | |
Previous | 13.0064 | 675 | |
Total | 12.9973 | 676 | |
Prediction Tracker | Rank | # of Polls | |
Straight Up | T38 | 54 | |
vs Spread | 51 | 54 | |
Absolute Error | 9 | 54 |
Money Line Picks | Units | ||
Week | 0.00 | ||
Previous | 43.61 | ||
Total | 43.61 | ||
Spread Picks | Units | ||
Week | 0.00 | ||
Previous | 11.00 | ||
Total | 11.00 | ||
Spread By Week | Win | Loss | |
Week 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Week 1 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
Week 2 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 3 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
Week 4 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Week 5 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 6 | (1.10) | 0 | 1 |
Week 7 | 1.00 | 1 | 0 |
Week 8 | 2.00 | 2 | 0 |
Week 9 | (2.20) | 0 | 2 |
Week 10 | 0.90 | 2 | 1 |
Week 11 | 0.80 | 3 | 2 |
Week 12 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Week 13 | 3.70 | 7 | 3 |
Week 14 | (0.10) | 1 | 1 |
Week 15 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 11.00 | 22 | 10 |
Money Line by Week | Win | Loss | |
Week 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Week 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 4 |
Week 2 | 8.75 | 2 | 3 |
Week 3 | (2.00) | 1 | 7 |
Week 4 | 0.10 | 1 | 3 |
Week 5 | 6.60 | 3 | 3 |
Week 6 | 11.75 | 3 | 4 |
Week 7 | 2.00 | 1 | 2 |
Week 8 | 1.25 | 1 | 3 |
Week 9 | 2.40 | 1 | 1 |
Week 10 | 7.74 | 3 | 2 |
Week 11 | (1.00) | 0 | 1 |
Week 12 | 2.50 | 1 | 3 |
Week 13 | 0.52 | 1 | 3 |
Week 14 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Week 15 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
Total | 43.61 | 19 | 39 |