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The Book 2021: Week 14 - December 4

Championship Week

The final week of the regular season has arrived and with it, still most likely 3 of the 4 CFP spots. Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Cincinnati sit 1-4 with the committee, but at least heading into the final exam, we aren't really in agreement and neither are most of the computer based polls.

The Book has three of the same four teams with Georgia at #1, followed by Alabama, Michigan and then despite their loss, Ohio State still in the fourth spot. Then it's Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and finally Cincinnati at 7.

The Buckeyes are in pretty much every computer's top four, with Sagarin having them 3, the Massey composite at 4 and ESPN's FPI at 2. Cincinnati is 7 with Sagarin, 6 with Massey and 8 with FPI. The Bearcats though do have one additional game, as will all the teams playing on Championship Saturday to further strengthen either their power ranking or strength of record, that said, at least in our metric, it is hard to see UC finishing in our top four. That doesn't mean they aren't good, but it does speak to the struggles they had against weaker competition midseason which pulled down their power rating and a woeful strength of schedule of 78 (many have this much lower).

My prediction on where The Book will wind up, although I haven't modeled out anything:

1. Georgia, 2: Michigan, 3: Alabama and 4. Oklahoma State

This will give you some idea of how The Book looks at the CFP contenders. The numbers next to top 25 wins and overall losses are this week's Book rankings and yes, even at 7-5 Iowa State is still ranked as they are with ESPN FPI and Sagarin.

Very interesting that Alabama has only one top 25 win on its resume, while no one outside of Baylor has more than 2 and of course, Iowa State would be that third.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS TOP 25 WINS LOSSES
1 1 GEORGIA 12 0 1 1 52 (14) CLEMSON, (25) KENTUCKY NONE
2 3 MICHIGAN 11 1 3 5 36 (17) WISCONSIN, (4) OHIO ST (12) MICHIGAN ST
3 2 ALABAMA 11 1 4 4 30 (9) OLE MISS (23) TEXAS A&M
4 7 CINCINNATI 12 0 7 6 78 (5) NOTRE DAME NONE
5 6 OKLAHOMA ST 11 1 6 2 15 (11) BAYLOR, (8) OKLAHOMA (24) IOWA ST
6 5 NOTRE DAME 11 1 5 3 20 (17) WISCONSIN (7) CINCINNATI
7 4 OHIO ST 10 2 2 7 19 (12) MICHIGAN ST, (22) PURDUE (13) OREGON, (3) MICHIGAN
8 9 MISSISSIPPI 10 2 15 8 13 (23) TEXAS A&M (40) AUBURN, (2) ALABAMA
9 11 BAYLOR 10 2 19 13 56 (20) BYU, (8) OKLAHOMA, (24) IOWA ST (6) OKLAHOMA ST, (79) TCU
10 13 OREGON 10 2 29 12 33 (4) OHIO ST (95) STANFORD, (16) UTAH
13 10 IOWA 10 2 21 9 27 (24) IOWA ST (22) PURDUE, (17) WISCONSIN
14 8 OKLAHOMA 10 2 8 11 29 (24) IOWA ST (11) BAYLOR, (6) OKLAHOMA ST

Clemson has actually ascended back to the top of the ACC in our system and is in the same spot in the majority of the major computer systems too. Pitt though is the favorite in the ACC title game, -2.4 over Wake.

Boston College

The Eagles finished off what was obviously a disappointing regular season at 6-6 to sit at #71 in the country and #11 in the ACC. BC lost 11 spots overall after getting drubbed by Wake at Alumni last Saturday. For a team that was just outside the top 25 at the end of September, the drop was massive. 71 though is actually kinder than most of the computer polls have them, although FPI ranks them 67, the others all have BC in the mid to low 70s. This against the worst strength of schedule of any power five team.

My Betting Model Forecast

Another week of good results, with Auburn nearly providing a daily double and winning outright, which cost us an additional 6.78 units on the money line, while still covering the spread. 7-3 vs the spread for plus 3.70 units and 1-3 vs the money line, still good enough to net a small profit of 0.52 units by picking North Texas to upset UTSA.

That said, we struggled overall vs the spread, once again under .500 for the week, although we rose to #10 overall out of 54 computer polls in Prediction Tracker for overall accuracy as measured by Absolute Error.

This week's games are all picked against the Vegas opening spread.

Spread Picks (+11.10 units on the season):

Western Kentucky (+2.5) UTSA

Cincinnati (-10.5) Houston

Money Line Picks (+43.61 for the season):

None this week

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 12 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2 ALABAMA 11 1 4 4 2 3 3 4 2 3 1
3 MICHIGAN 11 1 3 5 4 2 4 2 3 2 1
4 OHIO ST 10 2 2 7 3 4 2 7 7 7 (2)
5 NOTRE DAME 11 1 5 3 5 7 5 6 6 6 1
6 OKLAHOMA ST 11 1 6 2 6 5 7 5 5 5 (1)
7 CINCINNATI 12 0 7 6 7 6 8 3 4 4 0
8 OKLAHOMA 10 2 8 11 8 10 6 13 11 14 0
9 MISSISSIPPI 10 2 15 8 10 8 17 8 8 8 0
10 IOWA 10 2 21 9 18 12 25 15 12 13 1
11 BAYLOR 10 2 19 13 16 9 18 9 9 9 1
12 MICHIGAN ST 10 2 32 10 27 11 24 11 13 11 2
13 OREGON 10 2 29 12 17 18 20 10 10 10 3
14 CLEMSON 9 3 10 23 9 16 10 22 24 20 5
15 PITTSBURGH 10 2 16 18 20 17 11 17 15 15 2
16 UTAH 9 3 14 20 11 15 12 14 17 17 (3)
17 WISCONSIN 8 4 12 24 12 13 13 (7)
18 WAKE FOREST 10 2 23 16 21 14 21 18 18 16 3
19 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 17 22 19 19 16 21 20 18 (1)
20 BYU 10 2 39 15 32 20 40 12 14 12 2
21 APPALACHIAN ST 10 2 22 25 35 28 22 3
22 PURDUE 8 4 26 26 23 21 35 9
23 TEXAS A&M 8 4 11 31 13 22 15 24 23 25 (8)
24 IOWA ST 7 5 9 38 15 29 9 (1)
25 KENTUCKY 9 3 30 27 22 26 30 25 22 23 3
26 UCLA 8 4 18 30 26 32 32 8
27 HOUSTON 11 1 44 19 40 27 39 16 16 21 0
28 MINNESOTA 8 4 20 28 25 30 33 4
29 LOUISIANA 11 1 49 17 47 31 49 20 21 24 (4)
30 PENN ST 7 5 13 36 14 23 14 (10)
31 ARKANSAS 8 4 25 29 28 25 29 23 25 22 (2)
32 SAN DIEGO ST 11 1 62 14 43 24 61 19 19 19 1
33 MISSISSIPPI ST 7 5 31 40 30 33 27 (3)
34 MIAMI FL 7 5 27 42 36 41 23 10
35 ARIZONA ST 8 4 37 35 34 44 38 6
36 UTSA 11 1 71 21 58 34 58 (10)
37 KANSAS ST 7 5 40 37 37 40 42 (2)
38 TENNESSEE 7 5 28 51 33 36 26 8
39 COASTAL CAROLINA 10 2 56 32 54 46 45 1
40 AUBURN 6 6 24 53 24 39 19 (4)
41 WASHINGTON ST 7 5 36 45 42 51 55 8
42 LSU 6 6 34 47 29 43 37 6
43 FRESNO ST 9 3 51 34 46 37 54 (1)
44 OREGON ST 7 5 43 44 41 49 48 (7)
45 AIR FORCE 9 3 50 39 45 38 68 2
46 LOUISVILLE 6 6 38 58 49 50 46 (8)
47 SMU 8 4 55 43 53 48 47 (8)
48 WESTERN KENTUCKY 8 4 42 54 52 47 43 7
49 NORTH CAROLINA 6 6 35 63 48 55 36 (4)
50 BOISE ST 7 5 46 50 31 35 41 (7)
51 NEVADA 8 4 54 48 44 45 53 11
52 UTAH ST 9 3 81 33 76 52 84 0
53 TEXAS 5 7 41 70 39 53 28 5
54 FLORIDA 6 6 45 67 38 56 31 9
55 TEXAS TECH 6 6 52 56 64 61 60 (5)
56 UAB 8 4 63 52 72 59 65 (2)
57 WEST VIRGINIA 6 6 48 65 51 54 50 7
58 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 8 4 58 55 67 62 77 3
59 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 57 56 57 44 (8)
60 UCF 8 4 70 46 60 60 63 (1)
61 ARMY 8 3 79 41 55 42 57 8
62 VIRGINIA TECH 6 6 53 68 59 67 51 5
63 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 74 57 69 52 (10)
64 EAST CAROLINA 7 5 68 60 78 64 79 (7)
65 GEORGIA ST 7 5 69 59 86 75 87 12
66 TULSA 6 6 64 71 75 74 74 9
67 ILLINOIS 5 7 61 75 69 65 66 14
68 MISSOURI 6 6 73 62 70 70 76 (3)
69 MARYLAND 6 6 78 61 71 58 75 13
70 TOLEDO 7 5 57 80 66 76 59 13
71 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 67 76 74 78 67 (11)
72 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 6 84 64 65 63 73 (16)
73 WESTERN MICHIGAN 7 5 85 66 79 71 80 6
74 MARSHALL 7 5 72 73 77 73 64 (8)
75 NEBRASKA 3 9 33 96 50 68 34 (2)
76 LIBERTY 7 5 77 72 68 66 69 (8)
77 USC 4 7 65 85 61 79 56 (3)
78 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 8 4 102 49 92 72 98 (6)
79 TCU 5 7 80 77 73 77 70 (3)
80 MEMPHIS 6 6 76 79 81 82 78 7
81 SYRACUSE 5 7 74 81 80 80 72 (10)
82 CALIFORNIA 4 7 59 91 62 85 71 (12)
83 KENT ST 7 5 92 69 91 83 97 6
84 WASHINGTON 4 8 66 92 63 89 62 (6)
85 COLORADO 4 8 75 90 84 91 86 (1)
86 RUTGERS 5 7 88 82 82 81 82 (6)
87 MIAMI OH 6 6 83 89 85 84 85 (1)
88 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7 5 98 78 95 86 91 0
89 WYOMING 6 6 89 86 87 87 92 (4)
90 BALL ST 6 6 96 84 88 88 95 3
91 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 6 6 95 88 97 96 89 6
92 NORTH TEXAS 6 6 90 94 100 93 94 6
93 HAWAII 6 7 101 87 94 90 102 7
94 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 98 90 94 83 (4)
95 STANFORD 3 9 91 95 83 98 88 (4)
96 OLD DOMINION 6 6 99 93 104 99 105 6
97 NAVY 3 8 87 101 96 95 104 7
98 UTEP 7 5 110 83 108 92 110 (4)
99 NORTHWESTERN 3 9 93 104 93 100 96 (7)
100 INDIANA 2 10 94 106 89 97 81 (5)
101 TROY 5 7 105 99 106 103 101 (5)
102 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 7 106 97 103 102 93 (3)
103 TULANE 2 10 82 119 98 105 90 (2)
104 SAN JOSE ST 5 7 108 100 101 101 108 1
105 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 7 109 102 111 106 109 (2)
106 LA MONROE 4 8 115 103 117 107 121 3
107 COLORADO ST 3 9 104 112 99 104 99 (1)
108 KANSAS 2 10 112 109 115 110 115 0
109 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 10 100 117 109 111 107 2
110 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 9 103 116 114 117 111 0
111 ARIZONA 1 11 97 123 102 116 106 (4)
112 TEXAS ST 4 8 116 108 123 115 118 6
113 BUFFALO 4 8 113 113 107 112 100 2
114 VANDERBILT 2 10 111 115 116 120 120 0
115 CHARLOTTE 5 7 122 105 119 114 116 (3)
116 DUKE 3 9 120 110 113 119 113 (3)
117 RICE 4 8 121 107 121 109 122 4
118 LOUISIANA TECH 3 9 117 114 112 113 103 (2)
119 OHIO 3 9 107 122 110 121 114 (2)
120 UNLV 2 10 114 121 105 108 112 (1)
121 BOWLING GREEN 4 8 123 111 120 118 123 1
122 ARKANSAS ST 2 10 118 125 118 125 117 (2)
123 SOUTHERN MISS 3 9 119 124 124 123 119 3
124 NEW MEXICO 3 9 124 120 122 122 124 0
125 TEMPLE 3 9 126 118 125 124 125 (2)
126 AKRON 2 10 125 127 126 127 127 (1)
127 NEW MEXICO ST 2 10 127 126 127 126 128 1
128 CONNECTICUT 1 11 128 128 128 128 129 (1)
129 FLORIDA INTL 1 11 129 130 129 130 126 0
130 MASSACHUSETTS 1 11 130 129 130 129 130 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 CLEMSON 9 3 10 23 9 16 10 22 24 20 3
2 PITTSBURGH 10 2 16 18 20 17 11 17 15 15 (1)
3 WAKE FOREST 10 2 23 16 21 14 21 18 18 16 (1)
4 NORTH CAROLINA ST 9 3 17 22 19 19 16 21 20 18 (1)
5 MIAMI FL 7 5 27 42 36 41 23 0
6 LOUISVILLE 6 6 38 58 49 50 46 1
7 NORTH CAROLINA 6 6 35 63 48 55 36 (1)
8 VIRGINIA 6 6 60 57 56 57 44 0
9 VIRGINIA TECH 6 6 53 68 59 67 51 2
10 FLORIDA ST 5 7 47 74 57 69 52 (1)
11 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 6 67 76 74 78 67 (1)
12 SYRACUSE 5 7 74 81 80 80 72 0
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 9 86 98 90 94 83 0
14 DUKE 3 9 120 110 113 119 113 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Western Kentucky 6.6 at UTSA
Utah 4.3 Oregon
at California 4.2 USC
Georgia 9.8 Alabama
Oklahoma St 8.8 Baylor
Kent St 3.6 Northern Illinois
at San Diego St 7.1 Utah St
Appalachian St 6.8 at Louisiana
at Cincinnati 16.7 Houston
Michigan 13.0 Iowa
Pittsburgh 2.4 Wake Forest
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 7 3 0.700
Total 8 3 0.727
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 4 6 0.400
Total 4 7 0.364
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 28 35 0.444
Previous 297 342 0.465
Total 325 377 0.46296
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 43 22 0.662
Previous 463 192 0.707
Total 506 214 0.70278
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 12.7590 61
Previous 12.9022 601
Total 12.8890 662
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up T36 54
vs Spread 49 54
Absolute Error 10 54
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State 1-0 0-1
Louisville 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 1-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 0-1 0-1
Georgia Tech 0-1 0-1
Florida State 0-1 1-0
Wake Forest 1-0 0-1
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1.00 1.00
Temple 1.00 (1.10)
Missouri 1.00 1.00
Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
NC State 1.00 (1.10)
Louisville 1.00 1.00
Syracuse 1.00 (1.10)
Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Georgia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Florida State (1.00) 1.00
Wake Forest 1.00 (1.10)
Profit/Loss 5.00 (3.70)
Money Line Picks Units
Week 0.52
Previous 43.09
Total 43.61
Spread Picks Units
Week 3.70
Previous 7.40
Total 11.10
Spread By Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 2.00 2 0
Week 2 1.00 1 0
Week 3 2.00 2 0
Week 4 0.00 0 0
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 (1.10) 0 1
Week 7 1.00 1 0
Week 8 2.00 2 0
Week 9 (2.20) 0 2
Week 10 0.90 2 1
Week 11 0.80 3 2
Week 12 0.00 0 0
Week 13 3.70 7 3
Total 11.10 21 9
Money Line by Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 3.00 1 4
Week 2 8.75 2 3
Week 3 (2.00) 1 7
Week 4 0.10 1 3
Week 5 6.60 3 3
Week 6 11.75 3 4
Week 7 2.00 1 2
Week 8 1.25 1 3
Week 9 2.40 1 1
Week 10 7.74 3 2
Week 11 (1.00) 0 1
Week 12 2.50 1 3
Week 13 0.52 1 3
Total 43.61 19 39