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Final Thoughts and Prediction: BC vs Virginia Tech

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Florida State v Boston College Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images

Game News and Notes

Red Bandana Game tonight with Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2) coming to town against a .500 BC team still hunting for its first conference win. The Hokies snapped a three game losing streak prior to last weekend’s win over Georgia Tech. Each game saw its own woes for them, but the summary was inconsistency on one end or the other. Tech dominated last year’s matchup with BC coughing up multiple turnovers and allowing them to run wild.

The big question of the day is who will be quarterback. I, along with most of us, assume it will be the freshman Emmett Morehead. Coach Hafley expressed his desire to have it be one guy this week unlike last. Morehead didn’t play phenomenally, but when you’re first completion is a 44 yard deep pass after two years off playing, you raise some eyebrows. His ceiling is clearly higher, it’s building for the future, and another week of practice and preparation should hopefully mean even more improvement.

Injury News

As we mentioned earlier this week, a number of question marks for the week. On defense, IGM is hopeful and Brandon Sebastian has been day-to-day. Trae Barry is similarly day-to-day, while Kobay White is officially out. I will not entertain the Phil Jurkovec rumors for tonight. This is how rumors start @the internet.

Matchups to Watch

The BC Red Zone offense has to be better. You can bet that was a point of emphasis given what unfolded last week. Two field goals off of four trips to the red zone will never cut it. There’s been a quarter each game that has broken the Eagles defense, and I attribute a lot of it to the clear frustrations of the offensive ineptitude. Let’s see a big Pat Garwo game.

Of course the other big thing to keep an eye out is how the defense is able to consistently keep quarterback Braxton Burmeister at bay. With his mobility paired with a good running back in Malachi Thomas, the defense can’t let the explosives we saw last week and the onslaught the week prior happen. Burmeister has run less recently due to a shoulder injury, but it still should be a point of emphasis for the Eagles defense. They have a big, strong offensive line and very talented receivers. They’ve had their own share of struggles in each facet of the game, so it’s unlikely to all come together (and be beautiful), but they have plenty of ways to win this game.

Stats Corner

The Eagles have allowed 620 yards rushing in the past two weeks. Not good! Meanwhile, the Hokies have over 500 in their past two games while averaging about 5.3 a carry. At the same time, BC needs to figure out to how generate some pressure despite averaging 1.3 sacks a game. Hard to do with the constant rushing threat and the nature of the defense. Burmeister is throwing 29.5% under pressure, and two of his three interceptions this season have come that way. BC hasn’t brought much pressure (and is quite bad at doing so) this season, but it could be advantageous to mix it up.

Both teams are way down at the bottom of the Power 5 with a negative offensive EPA/play, meaning they are both less likely to score with the ball then their opponent. On the positive side for BC, the defense has actually played much stronger than Virginia Tech’s, particularly against the run. That could play well for the Eags.

Oddsmakers

BC +3 (with a little bit of juice going this way -meaning a bit more money going towards BC)

o/u 47.5

BC +130 / VT -150

Prediction

17-14 . . . BC. It has to happen eventually right? Again, assuming Morehead I believe that extra week of preparation as the intended starter can go a long way. Even with that bit of film, it will take a bit more to get a real read on him for the opposition. If the offense is able to move under Morehead, I can see the defense and the team collectively feeling much more confidence in themselves.

The Narrative

A glimmer of hope.