FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 10 - November 6

Best Week of the Season

It's not going to suddenly lift me from the depths of despair, but last week was the single best week of our 2021 season vs the spread, going a solid 29-23 for a win percentage of .558. It was only the second week all season (week 3 at .520) that we were over .500. We continue to be strong in terms of our predictions vs the actual final score, although the other models adjusting more rapidly than ours, coming in this week at 11th out of 54 computer polls.

The First CFP Rankings

The initial college football playoff committee rankings were released Tuesday night and Georgia, Alabama, Michigan Sate and Oregon, were the top four.

Our Book rankings, based on 50% power rating and 50% strength of record, have Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State as our top four, with Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Michigan St and Ole Miss rounding out the top 10.

So why the difference? The computer polls don't yet buy Michigan State, Oregon or Wake. Look down below at where those three sit in comparison to the CFP or human rankings. It's just not the computers, it's Vegas too. Wake is currently a 2 1/2 point dog to North Carolina (opened at 4 1/2) and Michigan St is only a FG favorite over Purdue. That simply shouldn't be the case for teams ranked in the top 10 playing unranked teams. If they keep winning, likely that both Vegas and the computer models catch up, but in the moment, all three can be categorized as overrated.

Breaking down the key metrics, using the Book strength of record and strength of schedule.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS
1 1 Georgia 8 0 1 2 18
2 2 Alabama 7 1 2 3 16
3 9 Michigan St 8 0 22 5 42
4 14 Oregon 7 1 23 18 51
5 4 Ohio St 7 1 3 16 55
6 6 Cincinnati 8 0 5 9 87
7 5 Michigan 7 1 6 4 28
8 3 Oklahoma 9 0 4 1 66
9 13 Wake Forest 8 0 28 8 84
10 7 Notre Dame 7 1 12 6 1
11 8 Oklahoma St 7 1 10 7 30
16 10 Mississippi 6 2 13 12 9

Boston College vs Virginia Tech

At this writing, Boston College was a 3 point underdog at home for the Friday night game against Virginia Tech. The Book shows the Eagles as a 1.9 point dog, meaning it leans BC to cover (which I don't personally subscribe to) while picking the Hokies to win the game.

Of note, we are 3-4 against the spread in Boston College games this year for a -1.40 unit return, but are 7-0 against the money line for a return of 7 units and therefore are +5.60 units on the season in predicting the Eagles.

This Week's Betting Nuggets

As mentioned last week, I’ve been working on better strategy for determining what to bet on and despite not having a good record either against the spread or vs the money line, I’ve been to find spots where I have an edge and could actually make a buck.

For money line bets, through week 9 we would have placed 45 total bets, netting 32.85 units for a 73% return on investment.

For spread bets, we haven’t done nearly as well, with only 9 total bets for a net of 3.8 units but still a solid 47.5% ROI.

The key to success on the money line has been winning on underdogs. All our bets are where our model has a money line edge and the Vegas line is +300 or greater, getting us to that +32.85 number.

This week’s picks and note that our model to date has been based on the Vegas closing line and these picks are against the opening line are:

Money Line:

Middle Tennessee (+465) at Western Kentucky

California at Arizona (+340)

Eastern Michigan (+320) at Toledo – we've already won this one!

Georgia State (+320) at Louisiana

Oregon State at Colorado (+314)

Spread

Middle Tennessee (+16) at Western Kentucky

Let’s see how we do!

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP
1 GEORGIA 8 0 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
2 ALABAMA 7 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 2
3 OKLAHOMA 9 0 4 1 4 7 4 4 4 8
4 OHIO ST 7 1 3 16 3 3 3 6 5 5
5 MICHIGAN 7 1 6 4 5 4 5 9 10 7
6 CINCINNATI 8 0 5 9 6 5 7 2 2 6
7 NOTRE DAME 7 1 12 6 7 8 14 8 8 10
8 OKLAHOMA ST 7 1 10 7 8 10 19 11 11 11
9 MICHIGAN ST 8 0 22 5 24 6 15 5 6 3
10 MISSISSIPPI 6 2 13 12 14 14 16 15 15 16
11 IOWA 6 2 18 11 19 13 25 19 16 22
12 TEXAS A&M 6 2 7 20 13 17 13 13 12 14
13 WAKE FOREST 8 0 28 8 16 9 26 10 9 9
14 OREGON 7 1 23 18 15 15 20 7 7 4
15 PENN ST 5 3 8 24 10 18 17 22 23
16 IOWA ST 5 3 11 25 11 24 9
17 PITTSBURGH 6 2 19 22 20 20 6 25 25
18 KENTUCKY 6 2 31 14 27 21 34 18 17 19
19 BAYLOR 7 1 21 21 17 11 21 14 13 12
20 AUBURN 6 2 9 35 9 12 12 12 14 13
21 BYU 7 2 38 15 31 19 45 17 20 15
22 UTSA 8 0 58 10 54 22 50 16 18
23 SMU 7 1 38 17 39 36 37 23 24
24 MINNESOTA 6 2 25 27 26 23 33 20
25 VIRGINIA 6 3 45 19 44 41 35
26 NORTH CAROLINA ST 6 2 20 31 25 25 18 22 19
27 WISCONSIN 5 3 14 42 12 16 22 21
28 TEXAS 4 4 15 45 23 29 11
29 SAN DIEGO ST 7 1 72 13 58 33 67 24
30 FLORIDA 4 4 16 51 21 34 8
31 LOUISIANA 7 1 52 23 59 43 56 24
32 UCLA 5 4 40 26 40 51 43
33 CLEMSON 5 3 17 54 18 31 10
34 COASTAL CAROLINA 7 1 33 41 50 37 32 21 21
35 MISSISSIPPI ST 5 3 29 47 32 35 28 17
36 UTAH 5 3 24 53 22 26 24
37 ARIZONA ST 5 3 34 38 34 46 41
38 ARKANSAS 5 3 41 34 36 28 31
39 APPALACHIAN ST 6 2 43 32 48 38 40
40 KANSAS ST 5 3 36 39 30 32 42
41 HOUSTON 7 1 47 29 41 27 44 20 19
42 NORTH CAROLINA 4 4 26 55 52 55 30
43 LSU 4 4 32 50 29 48 36
44 OREGON ST 5 3 60 30 49 50 58
45 FRESNO ST 7 2 54 36 43 39 54 25 23
46 PURDUE 5 3 50 44 35 30 38
47 LOUISVILLE 4 4 48 52 57 54 49
48 LIBERTY 7 2 62 43 47 49 55
49 NEVADA 6 2 56 46 42 45 59
50 AIR FORCE 6 2 66 37 51 40 77
51 MIAMI FL 4 4 27 67 37 44 23
52 TEXAS TECH 5 4 70 40 69 66 61
53 TENNESSEE 4 4 37 60 38 52 27
54 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5 3 73 48 70 64 78
55 UCF 5 3 46 63 56 56 53
56 WASHINGTON ST 5 4 56 59 53 57 73
57 UTAH ST 6 2 89 32 72 53 90
58 USC 4 4 44 70 55 65 47
59 UAB 5 3 64 57 84 70 75
60 WEST VIRGINIA 4 4 30 92 33 47 39
61 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 6 2 99 28 87 67 97
62 NEBRASKA 3 6 35 85 46 59 29
63 BOISE ST 4 4 49 74 28 42 46
64 SYRACUSE 5 4 59 65 64 61 60
65 STANFORD 3 5 63 64 63 76 65
66 WASHINGTON 4 4 42 84 45 68 51
67 TCU 3 5 55 74 60 69 52
68 MARYLAND 5 3 75 56 68 58 76
69 VIRGINIA TECH 4 4 61 76 61 63 48
70 FLORIDA ST 3 5 53 83 66 73 57
71 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 4 71 68 76 87 71
72 ARMY 4 3 85 58 74 60 69
73 GEORGIA TECH 3 5 68 79 75 85 62
74 TOLEDO 4 4 65 87 65 74 63
75 MARSHALL 5 3 69 88 73 71 64
76 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 3 79 73 82 72 74
77 RUTGERS 4 4 76 80 71 62 66
78 MEMPHIS 4 4 78 78 83 89 79
79 SOUTH CAROLINA 4 4 92 62 80 77 82
80 UTEP 6 2 109 49 107 86 109
81 EASTERN MICHIGAN 5 3 90 66 90 78 84
82 ILLINOIS 3 6 84 69 88 79 80
83 CALIFORNIA 3 5 51 106 62 80 70
84 INDIANA 2 6 67 98 67 82 72
85 BALL ST 4 4 87 77 77 83 92
86 NORTHWESTERN 3 5 82 90 81 92 85
87 EAST CAROLINA 4 4 74 96 85 81 86
88 MISSOURI 4 4 80 93 86 91 81
89 TULSA 3 5 88 82 92 98 89
90 KENT ST 4 4 98 71 91 94 100
91 COLORADO ST 3 5 81 95 79 88 83
92 GEORGIA ST 4 4 91 89 99 90 101
93 WESTERN KENTUCKY 4 4 77 103 78 75 68
94 MIAMI OH 4 4 93 86 89 84 94
95 WYOMING 4 4 104 71 93 93 96
96 TROY 4 4 86 99 102 100 88
97 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 4 4 97 97 98 103 98
98 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4 4 96 103 96 95 87
99 COLORADO 2 6 83 108 95 104 91
100 SAN JOSE ST 5 4 102 94 94 96 102
101 HAWAII 4 5 108 81 101 102 106
102 BUFFALO 4 5 100 102 100 105 93
103 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 3 106 101 108 99 103
104 LA MONROE 4 4 123 61 116 97 120
105 DUKE 3 5 105 105 103 106 104
106 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 6 101 110 106 110 105
107 NAVY 2 6 95 113 97 101 107
108 CHARLOTTE 4 4 114 91 112 109 112
109 LOUISIANA TECH 2 6 111 109 105 107 99
110 TULANE 1 7 94 118 104 108 95
111 RICE 3 5 122 100 123 112 125
112 TEMPLE 3 5 117 107 121 115 126
113 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 6 107 116 115 116 111
114 VANDERBILT 2 7 116 112 122 120 121
115 NEW MEXICO 3 5 120 111 113 111 122
116 ARKANSAS ST 1 7 112 121 117 124 114
117 TEXAS ST 2 6 118 115 124 117 116
118 ARIZONA 0 8 103 126 109 122 108
119 KANSAS 1 7 124 114 120 118 124
120 NORTH TEXAS 2 6 113 122 118 119 110
121 BOWLING GREEN 3 6 121 120 119 113 118
122 OHIO 1 7 110 128 110 123 117
123 UNLV 0 8 115 124 111 121 115
124 OLD DOMINION 2 6 119 123 114 114 113
125 AKRON 2 6 128 119 126 125 128
126 SOUTHERN MISS 1 7 125 125 125 126 119
127 FLORIDA INTL 1 7 126 127 127 129 123
128 MASSACHUSETTS 1 7 130 117 129 127 130
129 NEW MEXICO ST 1 7 127 129 128 128 127
130 CONNECTICUT 1 8 129 130 130 130 129
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP
1 WAKE FOREST 8 0 28 8 16 9 26 10 9 9
2 PITTSBURGH 6 2 19 22 20 20 6 25 25
3 VIRGINIA 6 3 45 19 44 41 35
4 NORTH CAROLINA ST 6 2 20 31 25 25 18 22 19
5 CLEMSON 5 3 17 54 18 31 10
6 NORTH CAROLINA 4 4 26 55 52 55 30
7 LOUISVILLE 4 4 48 52 57 54 49
8 MIAMI FL 4 4 27 67 37 44 23
9 SYRACUSE 5 4 59 65 64 61 60
10 VIRGINIA TECH 4 4 61 76 61 63 48
11 FLORIDA ST 3 5 53 83 66 73 57
12 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 4 71 68 76 87 71
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 5 68 79 75 85 62
14 DUKE 3 5 105 105 103 106 104
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Miami OH 3.7 at Ohio
Ball St 18.5 at Akron
at Toledo 8.6 Eastern Michigan
at Western Michigan 8.0 Central Michigan
at Kent St 1.8 Northern Illinois
at Louisiana 9.2 Georgia St
Virginia Tech 1.9 at Boston College
Utah 7.7 at Stanford
at Alabama 23.0 LSU
at Arkansas 0.3 Mississippi St
at Georgia 37.7 Missouri
at Kentucky 5.4 Tennessee
at Mississippi 14.8 Liberty
Florida 16.2 at South Carolina
at Texas A&M 4.4 Auburn
at Charlotte 5.8 Rice
Old Dominion 1.0 at Florida International
Marshall 0.1 at Florida Atlantic
at Western Kentucky 7.1 Middle Tennessee
North Texas 4.2 at Southern Miss
UTSA 12.4 at UTEP
Pittsburgh 22.3 at Duke
North Carolina St 5.4 at Florida St
Clemson 4.9 at Louisville
at Miami FL 11.5 Georgia Tech
at North Carolina 3.8 Wake Forest
at Minnesota 17.6 Illinois
at Michigan 21.1 Indiana
Iowa 15.2 at Northwestern
Penn St 15.7 at Maryland
Michigan St 5.8 at Purdue
Ohio St 17.8 at Nebraska
Wisconsin 12.2 at Rutgers
at Iowa St 4.7 Texas
Kansas St 24.8 at Kansas
Baylor 5.0 at TCU
Oklahoma St 3.7 at West Virginia
at East Carolina 20.4 Temple
at UCF 15.2 Tulane
at Cincinnati 27.0 Tulsa
Houston 11.5 at South Florida
SMU 6.4 at Memphis
Appalachian St 17.6 at Arkansas St
Coastal Carolina 18.7 at Georgia Southern
at Texas St 2.9 Louisiana Monroe
at Troy 9.2 South Alabama
California 9.6 at Arizona
Oregon 2.0 at Washington
Oregon St 4.1 at Colorado
at Arizona St 5.0 USC
at New Mexico 1.8 UNLV
Utah St 16.8 at New Mexico St
San Diego St 9.6 at Hawaii
at Nevada 15.6 San Jose St
at UAB 18.6 Louisiana Tech
at Notre Dame 23.2 Navy
Colorado St 3.3 at Wyoming
at Fresno St 1.1 Boise St
at Air Force 8.1 Army
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 6 0 1.000
Total 7 0 1.000
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 1.000
Previous 3 3 0.500
Total 3 4 0.429
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 29 23 0.558
Previous 176 235 0.428
Total 205 258 0.44276
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 35 18 0.660
Previous 296 125 0.703
Total 331 143 0.69831
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 11.9925 53
Previous 13.1282 421
Total 13.0012 474
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 27 54
vs Spread 53 54
Absolute Error 11 54
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State 1-0 0-1
Louisville 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 1-0 0-1
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1.00 1.00
Temple 1.00 (1.10)
Missouri 1.00 1.00
Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
NC State 1.00 (1.10)
Louisville 1.00 1.00
Syracuse 1.00 (1.10)
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
Profit/Loss 7.00 (1.40)