FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 13 - November 27

The Best Weekend of 2021

It took until the penultimate week of the regular season, but we finally had something to cheer about. 35-24 at .593 for the week against the closing Vegas line is by far our best week of the year and lifted us out of the near basement of the Prediction Tracker, now 48th out of 54 computer rankings.

The .593 percentage would have been number one of all those systems for last week.

Boston College vs Wake Forest

Boston College concludes the regular season hosting Wake Forest in what for the Deacons represents their first chance to play in the ACC title game since 2006. The Eagles are currently a 4.5 point underdog per Vegas while the Book has them as +2.7.

BC now sits #62 in the country (down 6 spots from last week) and #10 in the ACC, down from 9, while Wake lost its grip on the top spot in the ACC and now is second behind Pitt and #17 in the country.

Last week's loss to Florida State moved the Noles ahead of BC nationally, despite a one game poorer overall record and a loss to FCS Jacksonville State. Remember, the Book doesn't care about head to head results, just your season in totality, which is why rankings tend to follow your winning percentage, particularly when compared in conference, where schedules generally are similar. This once again shows how weak BC's strength of schedule and strength of record are.

BC is currently 81st in strength of schedule by our metric, with their best win coming against #65 Virginia Tech.

The National Landscape

Just two weeks to go before the CFP committee makes their final selection and something I don't ever recall seeing: The Book top 9 teams stayed exactly as they were a week ago, with Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Oklahoma State making up the top four.

The Cincinnati question still looms as they are #8 this week for us and although they could benefit from the result of Michigan/Ohio State, Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and Alabama/Georgia..even that isn't guaranteed. I haven't done the math, but in the event of two upsets (OSU over UM and Bama over UGA), it is still likely that all of these teams remain above the Bearcats, still weighed down by those three mediocre performances and their weak strength of schedule.

All that matters though is that the committee ranks them #4 which either means win and the Cats are in or risk the TCU/Baylor/Ohio State disaster from 2014 happening all over again.

So how would Cincinnati fare against the other Top 10 committee selected teams on a neutral field?

vs Georgia - underdog 13.48 points

vs Ohio State - underdog 12.49 points

vs Alabama - underdog 7.02 points

vs Michigan - underdog 3.67 points

vs Notre Dame - underdog 2.71 points (and yes, I realize Cincinnati already beat ND in South Bend)

vs Oklahoma State - underdog 4.13 points

vs Baylor - favorite 3.19 points

vs Ole Miss - favorite 5.37 points

vs Oklahoma - favorite 1.15 points

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS
1 1 GEORGIA 11 0 1 1 46
2 2 OHIO ST 10 1 2 5 41
3 3 ALABAMA 10 1 3 3 39
4 8 CINCINNATI 11 0 7 7 80
5 6 MICHIGAN 10 1 5 6 45
6 5 NOTRE DAME 10 1 6 2 13
7 4 OKLAHOMA ST 10 1 4 4 23
8 13 BAYLOR 9 2 14 14 57
9 9 MISSISSIPPI 9 2 18 9 11
10 7 OKLAHOMA 10 1 10 8 47
14 10 WISCONSIN 8 3 8 16 5

MAC-tion Craziness

The Book has done really well picking the weeknight MAC games in November, going 11-5 over the past three weeks, but the real story is Northern Illinois. The Huskies currently lead the MAC West with an overall record of 8-3 (6-1 in conference) but are dead last in our power ranking, trailing #1 Toledo by over 9 full points, meaning that on a neutral field, the Rockets would be a 9 plus point favorite. I never remember a scenario where really at any point in the year, never mind the last week of the season, that has happened.

My Betting Model Forecast

My gosh as I looked at these I gasped. While the model continues to do well, as I add more results in, the optimum metrics change and that along with spreads and money lines it chooses to bet on. In this case I don't really mind the spread picks, it's the money line ones that scare me. We have Auburn at +12.5 vs Alabama, which would still be a stretch if Bo Nix was playing...picking the Tigers to either cover or win outright, seems crazy

Two of the other money line games involve undefeated teams going against Cincinnati and UTSA. I am actually fine with those against the spread, but not to win outright.

I did say though that at least for 2021, this was for entertainment purposes only, so no cheating and see how the model does this week.

Note that this week, the money line mark moved down to +270 and greater where our model has an edge and the spread down to 5.5 difference between Book and Vegas opening line. In the past weeks it's been +300 and 7.3 points.

Last week, had no games vs the spread and won 2.5 units vs the money line...strong at +7.4 vs the line and a whopping +43.09 on the money line for the season

Spread Picks (+7.40 units on the season):

Oklahoma State (+1) Oklahoma

Notre Dame (-16.5) Stanford

UAB (-12.5) UTEP

Auburn (+20) Alabama

Penn State (-1) Michigan State

New Mexico State (-6) UMass

Ohio (-6) Bowling Green

Liberty (-3) Army

Virginia Tech (+8) Virginia

Iowa State (-15) TCU

Money Line Picks (+43.09 for the season):

North Texas (+352) UTSA

Auburn (+678) Alabama

East Carolina (+550) Cincinnati

Charlotte (+299) Old Dominion

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 11 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2 OHIO ST 10 1 2 5 2 2 2 2 3 2 0
3 ALABAMA 10 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 0
4 OKLAHOMA ST 10 1 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 0
5 NOTRE DAME 10 1 6 2 5 5 6 5 5 6 0
6 MICHIGAN 10 1 5 6 4 4 4 6 6 5 0
7 OKLAHOMA 10 1 10 8 7 8 5 10 9 10 0
8 CINCINNATI 11 0 7 7 8 7 8 4 4 4 0
9 MISSISSIPPI 9 2 18 9 13 11 18 8 8 9 0
10 WISCONSIN 8 3 8 16 9 9 11 18 18 14 2
11 OREGON 9 2 27 13 16 20 19 11 11 11 (1)
12 IOWA 9 2 24 10 19 12 26 17 12 16 2
13 BAYLOR 9 2 14 14 15 10 17 9 10 8 2
14 MICHIGAN ST 9 2 38 11 26 13 24 12 13 12 (3)
15 PITTSBURGH 9 2 17 21 20 18 12 20 17 17 2
16 TEXAS A&M 8 3 9 27 12 14 14 14 14 15 0
17 WAKE FOREST 9 2 31 17 22 16 31 21 21 18 (4)
18 UTAH 8 3 12 22 10 15 13 16 19 19 1
19 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 3 15 23 18 21 16 24 24 20 (1)
20 PENN ST 7 4 11 29 11 17 15 1
21 CLEMSON 8 3 16 25 14 19 10 23 3
22 BYU 9 2 37 18 27 22 42 13 15 13 (2)
23 APPALACHIAN ST 9 2 20 24 34 27 21 5
24 HOUSTON 10 1 43 20 37 25 39 19 16 24 3
25 LOUISIANA 10 1 40 15 42 29 48 23 23 1
26 UTSA 11 0 59 12 46 23 50 15 20 22 4
27 IOWA ST 6 5 13 43 17 30 9 (5)
28 MISSISSIPPI ST 7 4 19 34 25 32 22 (3)
29 PURDUE 7 4 33 26 24 24 32 5
30 KANSAS ST 7 4 32 30 30 33 46 (7)
31 KENTUCKY 8 3 35 28 33 34 37 25 4
32 ARKANSAS 7 4 25 31 29 26 30 25 25 (3)
33 SAN DIEGO ST 10 1 71 19 51 31 69 22 22 21 3
34 MINNESOTA 7 4 26 37 32 37 34 4
35 ARIZONA ST 7 4 36 41 35 44 40 (3)
36 UCLA 7 4 23 32 28 39 35 1
37 SMU 8 3 48 35 44 41 43 (4)
38 AUBURN 6 5 29 47 23 35 20 (7)
39 COASTAL CAROLINA 9 2 50 36 55 46 45 0
40 MIAMI FL 6 5 30 45 43 43 29 3
41 BOISE ST 7 4 39 42 21 28 36 0
42 NORTH CAROLINA 6 5 34 57 49 49 38 (2)
43 OREGON ST 7 4 42 40 38 45 49 5
44 LOUISVILLE 6 5 22 49 39 40 33 0
45 LSU 5 6 41 61 36 51 41 4
46 TENNESSEE 6 5 21 58 31 36 23 4
47 FRESNO ST 8 3 65 39 52 42 59 (2)
48 VIRGINIA 6 5 53 46 53 47 44 (2)
49 UTAH ST 8 3 87 33 79 53 88 (7)
50 TEXAS TECH 6 5 61 47 70 59 65 (3)
51 AIR FORCE 8 3 62 44 48 38 72 7
52 WASHINGTON ST 6 5 47 53 47 57 62 5
53 EAST CAROLINA 7 4 64 52 73 63 76 8
54 UCF 7 4 67 50 58 54 58 6
55 LIBERTY 7 4 69 60 61 61 61 (2)
56 UAB 7 4 57 59 75 65 67 (5)
57 FLORIDA 5 6 45 77 40 56 25 (3)
58 NEVADA 7 4 66 55 54 50 66 (6)
59 FLORIDA ST 5 6 51 63 59 62 51 5
60 TEXAS 4 7 44 80 41 60 27 (5)
61 WEST VIRGINIA 5 6 46 70 50 52 47 2
62 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 5 55 68 64 72 56 (6)
63 ARMY 7 3 89 51 66 48 68 3
64 WESTERN KENTUCKY 7 4 52 65 65 58 54 3
65 VIRGINIA TECH 5 6 56 75 72 76 52 (6)
66 TCU 5 6 75 69 62 69 64 3
67 MARSHALL 7 4 63 66 68 67 55 6
68 MISSOURI 6 5 76 54 71 68 75 8
69 USC 4 6 60 83 60 79 57 (7)
70 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 8 3 95 38 84 66 96 2
71 SOUTH CAROLINA 6 5 72 56 63 55 70 7
72 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 7 4 68 62 77 74 80 5
73 SYRACUSE 5 6 74 74 78 75 71 (8)
74 GEORGIA ST 6 5 84 64 93 80 95 1
75 NEBRASKA 3 8 28 98 45 64 28 (4)
76 WASHINGTON 4 7 54 88 57 87 53 (8)
77 RUTGERS 5 6 80 73 67 70 74 (7)
78 MARYLAND 5 6 88 71 81 71 82 (4)
79 TOLEDO 6 5 58 86 69 77 60 3
80 ILLINOIS 4 7 73 81 76 73 73 (1)
81 CALIFORNIA 4 6 49 89 56 82 63 3
82 TULSA 5 6 70 82 82 81 79 1
83 EASTERN MICHIGAN 7 4 92 67 92 85 87 2
84 MEMPHIS 5 6 77 85 80 86 78 (3)
85 WESTERN MICHIGAN 6 5 91 72 87 84 84 (5)
86 MIAMI OH 6 5 78 84 85 83 85 2
87 WYOMING 6 5 82 78 74 78 83 2
88 COLORADO 4 7 83 87 86 92 89 5
89 GEORGIA TECH 3 8 79 100 90 91 77 (2)
90 STANFORD 3 8 90 91 83 95 86 (4)
91 KENT ST 6 5 94 79 95 88 99 4
92 NORTHWESTERN 3 8 85 102 89 94 90 (1)
93 BALL ST 5 6 100 90 91 89 98 (1)
94 TROY 5 6 98 93 103 98 97 0
95 UTEP 7 4 111 76 109 90 110 3
96 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 5 6 99 94 100 102 92 (6)
97 INDIANA 2 9 86 106 88 93 81 0
98 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 6 104 92 99 97 94 (2)
99 SAN JOSE ST 5 6 103 99 98 99 103 0
100 NAVY 2 8 93 105 96 96 105 0
101 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 6 113 96 113 106 109 0
102 NORTH TEXAS 5 6 101 101 108 105 101 2
103 HAWAII 5 7 109 95 102 103 107 6
104 OLD DOMINION 5 6 106 97 106 100 106 2
105 COLORADO ST 3 8 97 109 94 101 93 (3)
106 TULANE 2 9 81 118 97 104 91 7
107 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 9 105 113 110 113 108 (4)
108 BUFFALO 4 7 108 111 107 111 100 (1)
109 ARIZONA 1 10 96 123 101 116 104 2
110 DUKE 3 8 117 108 111 115 111 0
111 CHARLOTTE 5 6 119 103 117 112 115 (3)
112 OHIO 3 8 102 121 105 114 114 0
113 LOUISIANA TECH 3 8 116 110 112 108 102 (8)
114 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 3 8 107 117 115 117 113 1
115 KANSAS 2 9 115 107 114 110 116 (1)
116 LA MONROE 4 7 120 104 120 109 121 0
117 UNLV 2 9 110 122 104 107 112 0
118 VANDERBILT 2 9 112 115 118 118 120 0
119 TEXAS ST 3 8 118 116 123 121 119 0
120 ARKANSAS ST 2 9 114 124 116 124 117 1
121 RICE 3 8 122 114 122 120 122 (1)
122 TEMPLE 3 8 126 112 125 123 125 0
123 BOWLING GREEN 3 8 124 119 121 122 123 0
124 NEW MEXICO 3 8 123 120 119 119 124 0
125 AKRON 2 9 125 125 126 126 127 0
126 SOUTHERN MISS 2 9 121 126 124 125 118 0
127 NEW MEXICO ST 1 10 127 129 127 127 129 0
128 CONNECTICUT 1 10 128 128 128 128 128 0
129 FLORIDA INTL 1 10 129 130 129 130 126 0
130 MASSACHUSETTS 1 10 130 127 130 129 130 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 PITTSBURGH 9 2 17 21 20 18 12 20 17 17 1
2 WAKE FOREST 9 2 31 17 22 16 31 21 21 18 (1)
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 8 3 15 23 18 21 16 24 24 20 0
4 CLEMSON 8 3 16 25 14 19 10 23 0
5 MIAMI FL 6 5 30 45 43 43 29 1
6 NORTH CAROLINA 6 5 34 57 49 49 38 (1)
7 LOUISVILLE 6 5 22 49 39 40 33 0
8 VIRGINIA 6 5 53 46 53 47 44 0
9 FLORIDA ST 5 6 51 63 59 62 51 2
10 BOSTON COLLEGE 6 5 55 68 64 72 56 (1)
11 VIRGINIA TECH 5 6 56 75 72 76 52 (1)
12 SYRACUSE 5 6 74 74 78 75 71 0
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 8 79 100 90 91 77 0
14 DUKE 3 8 117 108 111 115 111 0

FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
at Ball St 5.1 Buffalo
at Northern Illinois 0.7 Western Michigan
Fresno St 8.4 at San Jose St
at Mississippi St 3.2 Mississippi
at North Carolina St 9.1 North Carolina
at Iowa St 20.7 TCU
at UCF 13.7 South Florida
Cincinnati 12.8 at East Carolina
at Memphis 3.3 Tulane
at SMU 7.2 Tulsa
at Central Michigan 7.7 Eastern Michigan
Ohio 12.1 at Bowling Green
Coastal Carolina 16.2 at South Alabama
at Washington 1.1 Washington St
at Utah 23.3 Colorado
at Texas 1.2 Kansas St
Boise St 5.5 at San Diego St
Utah St 15.2 at New Mexico
at Nebraska 1.1 Iowa
at Arkansas 15.4 Missouri
at Air Force 18.2 UNLV
Alabama 12.8 at Auburn
at Florida 5.0 Florida St
Georgia 33.1 at Georgia Tech
at Louisville 7.0 Kentucky
Texas A&M 7.1 at LSU
Clemson 12.5 at South Carolina
at Tennessee 26.1 Vanderbilt
at Old Dominion 8.1 Charlotte
at Southern Miss 13.7 Florida International
at Florida Atlantic 1.2 Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech 0.3 at Rice
UTSA 7.9 at North Texas
at UAB 20.0 UTEP
Wake Forest 2.7 at Boston College
Miami FL 24.8 at Duke
Pittsburgh 12.0 at Syracuse
at Virginia 2.3 Virginia Tech
Notre Dame 25.0 at Stanford
at Illinois 3.3 Northwestern
at Purdue 15.0 Indiana
at Rutgers 5.0 Maryland
Penn St 7.9 at Michigan St
Wisconsin 2.7 at Minnesota
at Liberty 9.0 Army
at New Mexico St 12.8 Massachusetts
at Baylor 17.1 Texas Tech
West Virginia 17.8 at Kansas
at Oklahoma St 8.4 Oklahoma
Navy 16.0 at Temple
Miami OH 2.7 at Kent St
at Toledo 29.7 Akron
at Appalachian St 25.0 Georgia Southern
at Arkansas St 4.7 Texas St
at Georgia St 5.0 Troy
at Louisiana 26.3 Louisiana Monroe
at UCLA 10.3 California
at Oregon 5.8 Oregon St
at Arizona St 19.7 Arizona
BYU 2.7 at USC
at Wyoming 12.4 Hawaii
Ohio St 5.6 at Michigan
at Marshall 0.6 Western Kentucky
Houston 31.7 at Connecticut
Nevada 6.5 at Colorado St
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 7 2 0.778
Total 7 3 0.700
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 3 6 0.333
Total 4 6 0.400
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 35 24 0.593
Previous 262 318 0.452
Total 297 342 0.46479
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 49 13 0.790
Previous 414 179 0.698
Total 463 192 0.70687
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 13.9419 62
Previous 12.7821 539
Total 12.9017 601
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up T31 54
vs Spread 48 54
Absolute Error 12 54
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State 1-0 0-1
Louisville 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 1-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 0-1 0-1
Georgia Tech 0-1 0-1
Florida State 0-1 1-0
Wake Forest
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1.00 1.00
Temple 1.00 (1.10)
Missouri 1.00 1.00
Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
NC State 1.00 (1.10)
Louisville 1.00 1.00
Syracuse 1.00 (1.10)
Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Georgia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Florida State (1.00) 1.00
Wake Forest
Profit/Loss 4.00 (2.60)
Money Line Picks Units
Week 2.50
Previous 40.59
Total 43.09
Spread Picks Units
Week 0.00
Previous 7.40
Total 7.40
Spread By Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 2.00 2 0
Week 2 1.00 1 0
Week 3 2.00 2 0
Week 4 0.00 0 0
Week 5 1.00 1 0
Week 6 (1.10) 0 1
Week 7 1.00 1 0
Week 8 2.00 2 0
Week 9 (2.20) 0 2
Week 10 0.90 2 1
Week 11 0.80 3 2
Week 12 0.00 0 0
Total 7.40 14 6
Money Line by Week Win Loss
Week 0 0.00 0 0
Week 1 3.00 1 4
Week 2 8.75 2 3
Week 3 (2.00) 1 7
Week 4 0.10 1 3
Week 5 6.60 3 3
Week 6 11.75 3 4
Week 7 2.00 1 2
Week 8 1.25 1 3
Week 9 2.40 1 1
Week 10 7.74 3 2
Week 11 (1.00) 0 1
Week 12 2.50 1 3
Total 43.09 18 36