Final Thoughts and Prediction: Boston College vs Florida State

Game News and Notes

Boston College (6-4, 2-4) riding a two-game winning streak return home to face Florida State (4-6, 3-4). The maroon and golds didn’t face off last season for the first time since 2004. FSU is riding a two-game winning streak, and has won nine of the past ten meetings. This is an FSU under transition and Jeff Hafley’s first chance to close this gap.

Mike Norvell leads an FSU team after going 3-6 in his first season last year. This year, the team started out 0-4 for the first time including an FCS loss. However, the team has played some extremely tight contests and proven it can hang with most anyone, but lose to just anyone just the same.

Injury Updates

-Brandon Sebastian / Isaiah Graham-Mobley: both day-to-day, did practice during the week so should have a good chance to go

-Josh DeBerry: hopeful, day-to-day. Didn’t sound as optimistic and didn’t hear anything about practice. The freshman CJ Burton stepped up here.

-Shittah Sillah: was looking to get back in the game last week, but held out, again not super optimistic

Matchups to Watch

Trae Barry can dominate this game. The Seminoles defense struggles at linebacker and Barry is already a problem as it is. He’ll take a page from his former teammates down at Jacksonville State and help lead the Eagles to victory. FSU’s defensive line is strong and will present a good challenge for the offensive line. Matt Applebaum needs to have them humming with the ACC sack leader Jermaine Johnson on the other side.

Hopefully BC’s front seven can welcome back Isaiah Graham-Mobley. The defensive leader has missed the past three games and between quarterback Jordan Travis and three solid running backs it may be a tough time. Tem Lukabu made some really good adjustments as last week’s game went on. They’ll need to build on that and stay disciplined up front. The FSU offense is going to spread the ball around passing, but that rushing attack is averaging 187.5 a game — not too far off from Louisville and slightly ahead of Wake. Similar to GT, FSU isn’t methodical in their drives though they can pick up those big chunks at once. Instead, BC will need to continue to prevent explosive plays in the air as they do and force Jordan Travis to be disciplined.

Stats Corner

The Seminoles defense is second in the conference and 11th nationally in red zone defense. In 27 red zone trips, they’ve allowed 17 touchdowns and two field goals, good for .704 on drives that reach. The Eagles will need to execute when they get down to the red zone.

On the flip side, their offense excels in the red zone as well. They have scored on the past 25 trips, best in the conference and third in the nation. They’re best in the conference in red zone touchdown rate, going 25-35. Bend don’t break just got a whole lot more difficult.

Oddsmakers

BC -1.5

o/u 54.5

BC -130 / FSU +110

The line has inched down slowly now in favor of the Eagles, but still favored

Prediction

This game has me on edge. FSU has broken my heart before, and while there is optimism for some — the defensive injuries are worrisome. That being said, the emotions are running high after FSU’s big win over Miami last weekend. As much as they need this game and next week’s for bowl eligibility, BC has seemed all business moving forward: BC 30 - FSU 28

The Narrative

Oof that was tense. BC was as crisp as the weather on offense, but FSU’s rushing attack kept them in it. A timely takeaway stopped the Seminoles from coming back, and the Eagles move on. The past has been rewritten, and in this reality BC welcomes Wake in a clash for the ACC Atlantic title.