After two straight wins, Boston College enters Saturday’s game against Florida State as a slight, 2 to 2.5 point favorite, according to Vegas Insider. The line opened with BC -3 and has moved slightly toward Florida State in the following days.
Despite being 4-6 there are reasons to see Florida State-BC as a pick’em sort of game - FSU has also seen improved play since switching to Jordan Travis at QB, meaning that passing stats on the season for both BC and FSU are skewed by QB use. They also are coming off a quality win against Miami.
The over-under for the game opened at 55.5 but is down to between 53.5 and 54. Most of BC’s ACC contests have been low-scoring, but last week bucked that trend and both FSU and BC seem to be finding a little more of a groove on offense.
BC is currently a -130 favorite in the moneyline after opening at -170, again suggesting bettors slightly have tilted to FSU so far.
While imperfect, the Sagarin Rankings often give insight into what the pointspread will look like when it opens, and in this instance the rankings have BC and FSU rated nearly identically, at #63 and #64 nationally; suggesting the slight edge to BC here is due to home field advantage.
BC is 6-4 against the spread this year, while FSU is 4-6 — same as the actual records.