FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 11 - November 13

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Today it's all about numbers...lots and lots of numbers, as we enter Week 11 of the College football season and The Book.

Boston College bounces back...but..!

The Eagles got back in the win column due in no small part to the return of QB Phil Jurkovec. That marked our first loss straight up in picking BC games, now 7-1 on the season. Not only that, but Jurkovec's return caused the line to change from VT -2.5 to a pick em by game time, which also cost us a win against the spread.

Interesting this week to see if the model can figure the Eagles out...we have them a 1.5 point dog at Georgia Tech and Vegas has the line at GT -2. So the wise guys know that Jurkovec is playing yet still leaned Jackets.

BC sits at #10 in the ACC and #67 nationally this week, up slightly on both fronts following the win last week.

Strength of Schedule

When we looked at strength of schedule after week 4, UMass was in the top 10 nationally, having played BC and Pitt among others. We knew that would change, but I wasn't quite ready for what it meant to BC. The Eagles now have the single worst strength of schedule among Power 5 schools at 90. Interestingly, the bottom three in this category are all ACC teams, with Pitt at 83 and Wake Forest at 75, second and third respectively.

Syracuse is 66, meaning that the ACC has four of the bottom 7.

What does that mean for our remaining undefeateds? Well Cincinnati continues to slide in both power rating and SOS. The Bearcats are 87th, while UTSA is a woeful 124. While Georgia is doing reasonably well at 32, the final unbeaten, Oklahoma is 68th, in other words, the fourth worst SOS among the Power 5.

Top SOS
1 Indiana
2 LSU
3 Kansas
4 Texas
5 Miami FL
6 Wisconsin
7 Mississippi
8 Mississippi St
9 Penn St
10 Florida
Bottom SOS
130 South Alabama
129 Coastal Carolina
128 UTEP
127 Buffalo
126 Troy
125 Eastern Michigan
124 UTSA
123 Charlotte
122 New Mexico St
121 Florida International
Bottom P5 SOS
90 Boston College
83 Pittsburgh
75 Wake Forest
68 Oklahoma
67 Arizona St
66 Baylor
65 Syracuse
64 Texas Tech
61 Vanderbilt
60 Oregon St

Our CFP Top Four

Last week, we called out Oregon, Wake Forest and Michigan State as pseudo frauds and immediately, two of the three lost.

This week's CFP top four then are: Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and Oklahoma, with Oklahoma St, Notre Dame, Michigan, Cincinnati, Texas A&M and Oregon, rounding out the top 10.

The CFP committee caused a stir by putting Michigan ahead of Michigan State. Head to head seems logical, especially with the game only 10 days ago. That said, we agree with the committee and so do all of the other computer polls, with UM significantly ahead of Sparty.

CFP
Rank
Book
Rank
Team Won Lost Power SOR SOS
1 1 GEORGIA 9 0 1 1 32
2 2 ALABAMA 8 1 2 4 18
3 10 OREGON 8 1 19 10 55
4 3 OHIO ST 8 1 3 6 48
5 8 CINCINNATI 9 0 11 8 87
6 7 MICHIGAN 8 1 7 7 42
7 12 MICHIGAN ST 8 1 28 9 37
8 4 OKLAHOMA 9 0 4 2 68
9 6 NOTRE DAME 8 1 12 3 12
10 5 OKLAHOMA ST 8 1 6 5 24
11 9 TEXAS A&M 7 2 5 16 45

Top Conferences

Based on power ranking, the weighted SEC West, is the standard, with it's central mean team a full five points higher than any other conference.

CONFERENCE DIVISION RANKINGS 2021
1 SEC West 135.69
2 Big 12 130.61
3 Big 10 East 130.59
4 Big 10 West 129.01
5 ACC Atlantic 128.38
6 ACC Coastal 126.64
7 SEC East 126.44
8 Pac 12 South 125.99
9 Pac 12 North 125.23
10 AAC 120.56
11 Sun Belt East 120.43
12 Mid American West 116.88
13 Mountain West West 116.63
14 Mountain West Mountain 116.42
15 Independent 112.51
16 Conference USA East 111.68
17 Conference USA West 109.76
18 Mid American East 109.34
19 Sun Belt West 107.42

Our Money Line and Spread Experiment

For the first time ever, we shared the spread and money line best bets, based on actual analysis. What I found out was that at least on the spread side, I missed counting some games.

Vs the spread last week won 2 of 3, grabbing Mississippi (-7.5) over Liberty and Colorado (+12) against Oregon State, while losing Middle Tennessee (+17.5) against Western Kentucky.

Vs the money line, what a great week! We won three of five for a net profit for the week of 7.74 units. Eastern Michigan (+320) vs Toledo, Arizona (+340) vs California and Colorado (+314) against Oregon St. We lost on Georgia State (+320) vs Louisiana and also a double dose of Middle Tennessee (+465) (probably don't want to go there twice) vs WKU.

This week, only one money line games and it's Stanford (+310) vs Oregon State. The Cardinal was awful last week and we picked against the Beavers too.

With the spread: LSU getting 2 vs Arkansas, Toledo giving 8 1/2 vs Bowling Green, Clemson laying 38 against hapless UConn, Middle Tennessee is back at it again -10 vs FIU and North Texas - 1 1/2 vs UTEP.

Money Line Picks Units
Week 7.74
Previous 33.85
Total 41.59
Spread Picks Units
Week 0.90
Previous 5.70
Total 6.60

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2 ALABAMA 8 1 2 4 2 2 2 3 2 2 0
3 OHIO ST 8 1 3 6 3 3 3 6 5 4 1
4 OKLAHOMA 9 0 4 2 4 6 4 4 4 8 (1)
5 OKLAHOMA ST 8 1 6 5 6 8 12 10 10 10 3
6 NOTRE DAME 8 1 12 3 8 7 14 7 7 9 1
7 MICHIGAN 8 1 7 7 5 4 5 9 8 6 (2)
8 CINCINNATI 9 0 11 8 10 5 10 2 3 5 (2)
9 TEXAS A&M 7 2 5 16 7 11 11 11 11 11 3
10 OREGON 8 1 19 10 15 16 22 5 6 3 4
11 MISSISSIPPI 7 2 15 13 13 12 17 12 12 15 (1)
12 MICHIGAN ST 8 1 28 9 24 10 21 8 9 7 (3)
13 WISCONSIN 6 3 9 23 9 9 9 20 24 18 14
14 IOWA ST 6 3 8 26 12 19 7 2
15 IOWA 7 2 23 14 18 13 24 19 14 20 (4)
16 WAKE FOREST 8 1 25 12 21 14 28 13 13 12 (3)
17 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 2 16 18 19 23 16 21 19 16 9
18 PENN ST 6 3 10 25 11 15 13 23 23 (3)
19 BYU 8 2 40 11 28 21 42 14 15 14 2
20 BAYLOR 7 2 22 21 22 17 23 18 18 13 (1)
21 PITTSBURGH 7 2 18 24 20 24 6 25 22 21 (4)
22 UTAH 6 3 13 34 17 25 15 24 14
23 AUBURN 6 3 14 33 14 18 18 16 20 17 (3)
24 CLEMSON 6 3 17 32 16 27 8 9
25 UTSA 9 0 51 15 42 20 46 15 16 23 (3)
26 PURDUE 6 3 39 22 27 22 32 19 20
27 APPALACHIAN ST 7 2 34 27 43 31 34 12
28 COASTAL CAROLINA 8 1 29 31 50 35 35 22 21 6
29 HOUSTON 8 1 45 20 41 28 43 17 17 12
30 LOUISIANA 8 1 54 17 57 37 58 24 25 1
31 KANSAS ST 6 3 38 28 30 30 44 9
32 KENTUCKY 6 3 36 30 32 32 38 (14)
33 MINNESOTA 6 3 33 38 35 36 41 (9)
34 ARKANSAS 6 3 42 35 33 26 33 25 4
35 MISSISSIPPI ST 5 4 27 42 31 39 27 0
36 ARIZONA ST 6 3 30 41 29 41 36 1
37 NORTH CAROLINA 5 4 24 46 40 44 30 5
38 MIAMI FL 5 4 31 43 37 40 25 13
39 VIRGINIA 6 3 44 37 45 34 39 (14)
40 SAN DIEGO ST 8 1 72 19 55 33 67 22 (11)
41 SMU 7 2 48 39 47 47 40 (18)
42 TEXAS 4 5 21 57 25 38 19 (14)
43 LSU 4 5 20 60 26 49 31 0
44 UCLA 5 4 43 44 38 51 45 (12)
45 NEVADA 7 2 63 36 46 43 65 4
46 BOISE ST 5 4 37 52 23 29 37 17
47 TENNESSEE 5 4 35 54 36 42 26 6
48 FRESNO ST 7 3 66 40 59 45 62 (3)
49 FLORIDA 4 5 26 67 34 50 20 (19)
50 LIBERTY 7 3 55 45 49 55 52 (2)
51 UCF 6 3 52 47 53 53 54 4
52 UTAH ST 7 2 88 29 76 52 89 5
53 WASHINGTON ST 5 4 53 49 48 57 69 3
54 LOUISVILLE 4 5 46 63 58 56 48 (7)
55 WEST VIRGINIA 4 5 41 77 39 54 47 5
56 SYRACUSE 5 4 56 61 62 60 61 8
57 OREGON ST 5 4 59 58 56 64 55 (13)
58 TEXAS TECH 5 4 69 51 68 66 63 (6)
59 TCU 4 5 49 70 52 62 49 8
60 USC 4 5 50 72 54 71 50 (2)
61 UAB 6 3 70 55 83 69 72 (2)
62 MARSHALL 6 3 58 64 61 63 56 13
63 WASHINGTON 4 5 47 80 51 77 51 3
64 MARYLAND 5 4 78 53 67 58 76 4
65 ARMY 5 3 80 50 63 48 64 7
66 AIR FORCE 6 3 74 59 60 46 78 (16)
67 BOSTON COLLEGE 5 4 60 71 71 74 66 4
68 NEBRASKA 3 7 32 94 44 59 29 (6)
69 EAST CAROLINA 5 4 64 73 80 70 81 18
70 SOUTH CAROLINA 5 4 82 56 64 61 71 9
71 VIRGINIA TECH 4 5 65 76 66 75 53 (2)
72 MEMPHIS 5 4 75 66 77 78 75 6
73 ILLINOIS 4 6 76 68 74 65 74 9
74 WESTERN KENTUCKY 5 4 67 79 73 67 60 19
75 EASTERN MICHIGAN 6 3 84 62 86 73 84 6
76 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5 4 85 65 82 76 82 (22)
77 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 6 3 102 48 88 72 98 (16)
78 FLORIDA ST 3 6 57 90 70 79 57 (8)
79 STANFORD 3 6 71 85 69 86 77 (14)
80 RUTGERS 4 5 87 75 78 68 80 (3)
81 GEORGIA TECH 3 6 62 92 79 83 59 (8)
82 MISSOURI 4 5 81 83 81 84 83 6
83 CALIFORNIA 3 6 61 99 72 93 73 0
84 KENT ST 5 4 99 74 89 82 101 6
85 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 5 4 91 81 94 85 79 (9)
86 BALL ST 5 4 94 78 84 81 94 (1)
87 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 5 4 86 84 91 92 95 10
88 GEORGIA ST 4 5 89 86 97 90 99 4
89 WYOMING 5 4 100 82 87 89 96 6
90 TROY 5 4 92 87 99 96 88 6
91 INDIANA 2 7 68 103 65 80 70 (7)
92 TOLEDO 4 5 73 101 75 87 68 (18)
93 NORTHWESTERN 3 6 77 98 85 91 86 (7)
94 COLORADO 3 6 83 96 92 99 90 5
95 TULSA 3 6 79 97 95 94 85 (6)
96 SAN JOSE ST 5 5 96 91 96 97 102 4
97 UTEP 6 3 112 69 109 88 110 (17)
98 MIAMI OH 4 5 95 100 93 95 97 (4)
99 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 4 5 104 95 101 101 92 (1)
100 COLORADO ST 3 6 93 107 90 98 87 (9)
101 SOUTH ALABAMA 5 4 106 93 111 103 103 2
102 NAVY 2 7 97 106 98 100 108 5
103 BUFFALO 4 5 101 105 100 106 91 (1)
104 HAWAII 4 6 108 102 102 102 106 (3)
105 DUKE 3 6 105 104 104 107 104 0
106 CHARLOTTE 5 4 116 89 113 105 114 2
107 SOUTH FLORIDA 2 7 103 112 107 109 107 (1)
108 TULANE 1 8 90 119 103 108 93 2
109 LA MONROE 4 5 122 88 118 104 119 (5)
110 NORTH TEXAS 3 6 107 114 114 117 109 10
111 ARIZONA 1 8 98 121 105 116 105 7
112 LOUISIANA TECH 2 7 111 117 106 110 100 (3)
113 OLD DOMINION 3 6 115 111 112 111 111 11
114 TEXAS ST 3 6 118 109 121 112 117 3
115 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 7 110 120 115 121 113 (2)
116 RICE 3 6 120 108 123 113 121 (5)
117 VANDERBILT 2 7 117 115 122 123 120 (3)
118 OHIO 2 7 109 124 108 120 115 4
119 BOWLING GREEN 3 6 119 113 117 114 118 2
120 TEMPLE 3 6 123 110 124 122 126 (8)
121 KANSAS 1 8 121 116 119 119 122 (2)
122 UNLV 1 8 113 123 110 115 112 1
123 NEW MEXICO 3 6 124 118 116 118 124 (8)
124 ARKANSAS ST 1 8 114 125 120 124 116 (8)
125 AKRON 2 7 125 122 125 125 127 0
126 SOUTHERN MISS 1 8 126 127 126 127 123 0
127 FLORIDA INTL 1 8 127 129 127 128 125 0
128 NEW MEXICO ST 1 8 128 130 128 126 128 1
129 MASSACHUSETTS 1 8 130 126 130 129 130 (1)
130 CONNECTICUT 1 8 129 128 129 130 129 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CFP CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 WAKE FOREST 8 1 25 12 21 14 28 13 13 12 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA ST 7 2 16 18 19 23 16 21 19 16 2
3 PITTSBURGH 7 2 18 24 20 24 6 25 22 21 (1)
4 CLEMSON 6 3 17 32 16 27 8 1
5 NORTH CAROLINA 5 4 24 46 40 44 30 1
6 MIAMI FL 5 4 31 43 37 40 25 2
7 VIRGINIA 6 3 44 37 45 34 39 (4)
8 LOUISVILLE 4 5 46 63 58 56 48 (1)
9 SYRACUSE 5 4 56 61 62 60 61 0
10 BOSTON COLLEGE 5 4 60 71 71 74 66 2
11 VIRGINIA TECH 4 5 65 76 66 75 53 (1)
12 FLORIDA ST 3 6 57 90 70 79 57 (1)
13 GEORGIA TECH 3 6 62 92 79 83 59 0
14 DUKE 3 6 105 104 104 107 104 0
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
at Miami OH 4.7 Buffalo
at Eastern Michigan 10.0 Ohio
at Western Michigan 22.2 Akron
Toledo 17.9 at Bowling Green
at Central Michigan 4.2 Kent St
Ball St 0.8 at Northern Illinois
at Pittsburgh 4.4 North Carolina
Cincinnati 22.7 at South Florida
at Boise St 18.9 Wyoming
at Alabama 55.9 New Mexico St
at Auburn 8.8 Mississippi St
at LSU 8.5 Arkansas
Texas A&M 1.0 at Mississippi
at Missouri 2.9 South Carolina
Georgia 22.4 at Tennessee
Kentucky 23.9 at Vanderbilt
at Louisiana Tech 7.2 Charlotte
at Middle Tennessee 19.0 Florida International
Florida Atlantic 10.9 at Old Dominion
at North Texas 7.1 UTEP
Western Kentucky 18.4 at Rice
at UTSA 31.1 Southern Miss
at Clemson 47.4 Connecticut
Miami FL 3.6 at Florida St
at Georgia Tech 1.5 Boston College
at Louisville 4.4 Syracuse
Notre Dame 7.4 at Virginia
at Virginia Tech 12.5 Duke
North Carolina St 0.3 at Wake Forest
at Indiana 8.3 Rutgers
at Iowa 4.6 Minnesota
at Michigan St 12.8 Maryland
at Penn St 1.0 Michigan
at Wisconsin 21.5 Northwestern
at Ohio St 21.9 Purdue
Oklahoma 4.3 at Baylor
at Kansas St 4.1 West Virginia
at Oklahoma St 16.3 TCU
at Texas 35.2 Kansas
Iowa St 13.6 at Texas Tech
at SMU 4.2 UCF
at Memphis 1.1 East Carolina
Houston 24.4 at Temple
at Tulane 0.5 Tulsa
at Appalachian St 22.7 South Alabama
Arkansas St 2.5 at Louisiana Monroe
at Coastal Carolina 14.8 Georgia St
Georgia Southern 4.6 at Texas St
Louisiana 8.7 at Troy
at California 0.7 USC
at Oregon St 4.0 Stanford
at Oregon 12.8 Washington St
Utah 18.3 at Arizona
Arizona St 0.7 at Washington
at UCLA 14.6 Colorado
at Fresno St 25.9 New Mexico
at San Jose St 0.1 Utah St
Hawaii 0.3 at UNLV
at Marshall 6.5 UAB
Air Force 1.7 at Colorado St
at San Diego St 0.1 Nevada
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 7 0 1.000
Total 7 1 0.875
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 3 4 0.429
Total 3 5 0.375
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 28 30 0.483
Previous 205 258 0.443
Total 233 288 0.44722
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 43 16 0.729
Previous 331 143 0.698
Total 374 159 0.70169
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 11.4559 59
Previous 13.1282 421
Total 12.9227 480
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up T24 54
vs Spread 53 54
Absolute Error 13 54
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State 1-0 0-1
Louisville 1-0 1-0
Syracuse 1-0 0-1
Virginia Tech 0-1 0-1
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1.00 1.00
Temple 1.00 (1.10)
Missouri 1.00 1.00
Clemson 1.00 (1.10)
NC State 1.00 (1.10)
Louisville 1.00 1.00
Syracuse 1.00 (1.10)
Virginia Tech (1.00) (1.10)
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
Profit/Loss 6.00 (2.50)