FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 6 - October 9

The National Scene

Every week, our rankings get closer and closer to what you see from the major computer polls including the Massey aggregate and although there are some major changes still happening week to week, there is more general stability at both the top and bottom of the rankings.

Boston College rose one spot in the overall ranking to #39, on the back of the close loss to a high-power ranking team, while Clemson despite the win, dropped 8 spots overall, due to the spread of the game and the ranking BC brought with them.

For the second week in a row, Georgia tops the rankings, leading in both the combined power and strength of record as well as the power ranking itself. The power number is what sets the weekly line.

Boston College Projected Record

Just proving how fragile the 2021 season is, in the last week, the Eagles fortunes, despite the loss at Clemson, improved overall, with our current projection showing BC finishing 9-3 overall and 5-3 in the ACC. Games against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, now lean toward BC and the NC State game has gone from the Pack by 4.2 down to a virtual toss up at 0.3.

Game

Result

Score

Record

Line

Vs Colgate

W

51-0

1-0

NL

At UMass

W

45-28

2-0

BC by 31.2

At Temple

W

28-3

3-0

BC by 12.7

Vs Missouri

W

41-34

4-0

BC by 2.6

At Clemson

L

13-19

4-1

Clemson by 15.2

Vs NC State

4-2

NC State by 0.3

At Louisville

4-3

Louisville by 2.4

At Syracuse

5-3

BC by 7.1

Vs Virginia Tech

6-3

BC by 2.4

At Georgia Tech

7-3

BC by 1.6

Vs Florida State

8-3

BC by 10.5

Vs Wake Forest

9-3

BC by 3.5

Projected Record

9-3

Struggles vs Vegas Continue

I am pretty much past the point that I believe things are going to turn in 2021 and have accepted this to be the worst season I will have ever posted. Sigh!

I do continue though to show very strong (6th out of 50) in terms of absolute error, meaning the delta between my projected spread and the actual final score are among the most accurate out there, despite not turning into spread winners.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 5 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 0
2 ALABAMA 5 0 2 7 1 2 2 1 1 0
3 MICHIGAN 5 0 4 1 6 4 5 9 8 2
4 IOWA 5 0 7 3 4 3 12 3 3 0
5 PENN ST 5 0 8 5 7 6 11 4 4 (2)
6 OKLAHOMA 5 0 6 10 3 7 4 6 5 0
7 OHIO ST 4 1 3 19 5 8 3 7 7 7
8 OKLAHOMA ST 5 0 25 4 14 12 34 12 12 7
9 TEXAS 4 1 5 17 10 9 8 21 23 12
10 CINCINNATI 4 0 9 18 8 5 14 5 6 1
11 MICHIGAN ST 5 0 31 8 31 13 17 11 11 6
12 BYU 5 0 44 6 24 16 46 10 10 1
13 NOTRE DAME 4 1 17 15 11 10 18 14 13 (3)
14 KENTUCKY 5 0 37 9 20 17 44 16 14 11
15 WAKE FOREST 5 0 36 11 21 15 33 19 20 16
16 SMU 5 0 41 12 22 25 32 24 24 17
17 ARKANSAS 4 1 26 14 23 11 19 13 16 (5)
18 COASTAL CAROLINA 5 0 23 16 43 22 24 15 15 9
19 OREGON 4 1 20 25 17 19 15 8 9 (10)
20 AUBURN 4 1 15 33 18 24 16 18 19 24
21 ARIZONA ST 4 1 21 30 19 23 27 22 25 35
22 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 30 24 27 26 22 23 22 27
23 IOWA ST 3 2 10 53 12 29 9 0
24 FLORIDA 3 2 14 42 9 14 6 20 18 (6)
25 PITTSBURGH 4 1 24 31 16 20 10 27
26 MISSISSIPPI 3 1 13 46 15 18 13 17 17 (18)
27 NORTH CAROLINA 3 2 12 48 28 36 20 (8)
28 CLEMSON 3 2 11 55 13 21 7 21 (8)
29 APPALACHIAN ST 4 1 38 29 41 33 29 31
30 OREGON ST 4 1 51 22 33 28 48 37
31 TEXAS TECH 4 1 56 20 48 41 47 (9)
32 USC 3 2 16 50 30 47 31 (6)
33 BAYLOR 4 1 34 35 34 31 35 (3)
34 UTSA 5 0 81 13 71 38 67 13
35 WESTERN MICHIGAN 4 1 61 21 38 27 64 26
36 TEXAS A&M 3 2 19 52 29 37 23 (29)
37 MISSISSIPPI ST 3 2 28 40 50 39 25 8
38 LSU 3 2 18 60 26 44 30 1
39 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 1 43 37 51 43 41 1
40 LIBERTY 4 1 53 34 35 35 52 (5)
41 MARYLAND 4 1 62 32 53 34 62 (7)
42 LOUISIANA 4 1 65 26 68 56 69 16
43 UCLA 3 2 42 43 39 32 39 (2)
44 KANSAS ST 3 2 48 39 25 30 55 (28)
45 STANFORD 3 2 46 44 46 40 53 3
46 SAN DIEGO ST 4 0 67 27 66 45 66 25 (17)
47 HOUSTON 4 1 58 36 62 51 49 23
48 MINNESOTA 3 2 40 47 57 55 57 (12)
49 NEBRASKA 3 3 22 70 40 48 21 10
50 WYOMING 4 0 82 23 61 50 82 (18)
51 VIRGINIA TECH 3 1 49 51 47 49 40 (14)
52 LOUISVILLE 3 2 45 57 64 62 59 2
53 AIR FORCE 4 1 69 38 65 53 81 28
54 VIRGINIA 3 2 52 56 55 52 42 (1)
55 PURDUE 3 2 59 54 63 54 51 (4)
56 FRESNO ST 4 2 70 41 70 68 60 (18)
57 ARMY 4 1 90 28 74 66 74 (14)
58 TENNESSEE 3 2 47 68 32 42 26 10
59 RUTGERS 3 2 64 49 54 46 54 (31)
60 NEVADA 3 1 60 58 56 58 73 9
61 WASHINGTON 2 3 28 80 45 69 45 5
62 UAB 3 2 71 61 80 70 71 1
63 SOUTH CAROLINA 3 2 68 62 58 57 65 1
64 TCU 2 2 35 79 37 61 37 (18)
65 UTAH 2 2 39 78 42 63 43 10
66 TOLEDO 3 2 63 73 60 71 63 24
67 MEMPHIS 3 2 72 65 75 73 70 (43)
68 MIAMI FL 2 3 33 86 59 67 28 (3)
69 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3 2 75 67 73 74 68 2
70 WEST VIRGINIA 2 3 32 94 44 60 38 (13)
71 INDIANA 2 3 54 82 52 64 56 8
72 BOISE ST 2 3 50 84 49 65 58 8
73 SYRACUSE 3 2 80 71 77 75 75 4
74 WISCONSIN 1 3 27 101 36 59 36 (24)
75 EAST CAROLINA 3 2 85 64 82 78 93 13
76 GEORGIA TECH 2 3 57 81 67 72 50 6
77 DUKE 3 2 89 69 92 88 86 (1)
78 UCF 2 2 55 93 69 79 61 (23)
79 UTAH ST 3 2 101 59 86 77 96 (37)
80 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 3 2 106 63 89 76 100 19
81 SAN JOSE ST 3 2 100 72 94 83 102 (9)
82 MISSOURI 2 3 66 95 76 82 76 (20)
83 WASHINGTON ST 2 3 73 91 72 96 87 14
84 HAWAII 3 3 99 75 101 91 103 29
85 EASTERN MICHIGAN 3 2 98 77 96 95 89 (2)
86 NORTHWESTERN 2 3 74 92 88 94 84 3
87 ILLINOIS 2 4 84 87 87 80 80 5
88 SOUTH ALABAMA 3 1 113 66 104 81 105 (15)
89 TEMPLE 3 2 109 76 113 98 111 21
90 LOUISIANA TECH 2 3 92 85 90 89 83 6
91 CHARLOTTE 3 2 111 74 108 102 107 (4)
92 BALL ST 2 3 93 88 79 85 101 10
93 MARSHALL 2 3 79 104 81 84 72 (15)
94 UTEP 4 1 124 45 121 100 119 15
95 KENT ST 2 3 96 90 78 87 97 (4)
96 BUFFALO 2 3 91 103 84 86 78 2
97 TROY 2 3 87 105 97 101 85 (23)
98 MIAMI OH 2 3 95 100 95 92 98 6
99 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 2 3 104 96 100 99 92 6
100 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 3 102 99 109 106 109 11
101 COLORADO ST 1 3 88 107 83 90 95 (6)
102 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 2 3 97 102 103 113 99 (1)
103 CALIFORNIA 1 4 76 115 85 107 91 (18)
104 TULSA 1 4 86 110 99 103 90 4
105 FLORIDA ST 1 4 77 117 91 97 79 10
106 COLORADO 1 4 83 113 98 108 94 (20)
107 TULANE 1 4 78 121 102 105 88 (23)
108 WESTERN KENTUCKY 1 3 94 112 93 93 77 (8)
109 GEORGIA ST 1 4 103 109 106 112 108 (15)
110 NAVY 1 3 105 108 107 114 118 11
111 VANDERBILT 2 3 117 89 118 110 122 (5)
112 BOWLING GREEN 2 3 120 97 111 111 116 8
113 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 4 107 116 105 109 104 (6)
114 RICE 2 3 121 98 124 115 124 10
115 LA MONROE 2 2 126 83 119 104 126 4
116 ARKANSAS ST 1 4 110 118 115 124 113 (13)
117 NEW MEXICO 2 3 123 106 123 119 125 (24)
118 NORTH TEXAS 1 3 114 119 117 117 110 (2)
119 OHIO 1 4 112 123 114 125 123 7
120 TEXAS ST 1 3 118 114 125 122 115 (6)
121 KANSAS 1 4 122 111 116 121 121 (9)
122 SOUTHERN MISS 1 4 115 122 122 123 112 (5)
123 ARIZONA 0 4 108 129 110 116 106 2
124 FLORIDA INTL 1 4 119 125 126 126 117 (6)
125 UNLV 0 5 116 127 112 120 114 2
126 OLD DOMINION 1 4 125 124 120 118 120 (4)
127 AKRON 1 4 127 120 127 127 130 (4)
128 NEW MEXICO ST 1 5 128 128 129 129 128 0
129 MASSACHUSETTS 0 5 130 126 128 128 127 0
130 CONNECTICUT 0 6 129 130 130 130 129 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 WAKE FOREST 5 0 36 11 21 15 33 19 20 0
2 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 30 24 27 26 22 23 22 0
3 PITTSBURGH 4 1 24 31 16 20 10 4
4 NORTH CAROLINA 3 2 12 48 28 36 20 4
5 CLEMSON 3 2 11 55 13 21 7 21 (1)
6 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 1 43 37 51 43 41 (3)
7 VIRGINIA TECH 3 1 49 51 47 49 40 (1)
8 LOUISVILLE 3 2 45 57 64 62 59 (3)
9 VIRGINIA 3 2 52 56 55 52 42 4
10 MIAMI FL 2 3 33 86 59 67 28 (1)
11 SYRACUSE 3 2 80 71 77 75 75 0
12 GEORGIA TECH 2 3 57 81 67 72 50 (2)
13 DUKE 3 2 89 69 92 88 86 (1)
14 FLORIDA ST 1 4 77 117 91 97 79 0

FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG WIN
PROBABILITY
Houston 1.3 at Tulane 51%
Coastal Carolina 19.1 at Arkansas St 97%
at Cincinnati 31.2 Temple 99%
Charlotte 3.4 at Florida International 57%
at Arizona St 8.4 Stanford 74%
Georgia 14.2 at Auburn 85%
at Florida 33.7 Vanderbilt 99%
LSU 1.8 at Kentucky 52%
at Mississippi 9.8 Arkansas 75%
at Missouri 18.1 North Texas 95%
at Tennessee 8.3 South Carolina 74%
Alabama 14.7 at Texas A&M 87%
at UAB 3.2 Florida Atlantic 57%
at Marshall 21.6 Old Dominion 96%
at Southern Miss 9.0 UTEP 75%
UTSA 2.2 at Western Kentucky 53%
at Liberty 17.7 Middle Tennessee 94%
Georgia Tech 7.7 at Duke 73%
at Louisville 4.0 Virginia 62%
at North Carolina 20.2 Florida St 96%
Wake Forest 7.4 at Syracuse 70%
Notre Dame 5.9 at Virginia Tech 65%
Wisconsin 10.3 at Illinois 77%
at Iowa 2.1 Penn St 53%
at Ohio St 24.4 Maryland 97%
Michigan 5.9 at Nebraska 65%
Michigan St 5.5 at Rutgers 65%
at Umass 1.0 Connecticut 51%
at Baylor 3.4 West Virginia 57%
Texas 0.4 Oklahoma 50%
TCU 0.1 at Texas Tech 50%
at UCF 12.5 East Carolina 83%
Memphis 1.6 at Tulsa 52%
at Eastern Michigan 0.3 Miami OH 50%
at Western Michigan 9.4 Ball St 75%
at Kent St 1.7 Buffalo 53%
at Bowling Green 9.1 Akron 75%
Central Michigan 2.7 at Ohio 54%
at Troy 5.0 Georgia Southern 64%
Georgia St 13.9 at Louisiana Monroe 84%
South Alabama 0.9 at Texas St 50%
Oregon St 3.6 at Washington St 61%
UCLA 12.0 at Arizona 82%
at USC 9.0 Utah 75%
at BYU 4.1 Boise St 62%
at Colorado St 6.3 San Jose St 66%
at San Diego St 23.2 New Mexico 97%
at Toledo 14.9 Northern Illinois 87%
SMU 14.7 at Navy 87%
at Air Force 7.1 Wyoming 70%
at Nevada 32.1 New Mexico St 99%

BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 1 0 1.000
Previous 3 0 1.000
Total 4 0 1.000
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 1 0.000
Previous 2 1 0.667
Total 2 2 0.500
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 24 35 0.407
Previous 87 110 0.442
Total 111 145 0.43359
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 36 25 0.590
Previous 151 54 0.737
Total 187 79 0.70301
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 14.9754 61
Previous 12.8497 205
Total 13.3372 266
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 38 50
vs Spread 49 50
Absolute Error 6 50
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest