FanPost

The Book 2021: Week 7 - October 16

Back with Boston College picks after the bye week and none too soon. We continue to look like geniuses in terms of setting lines and idiots in terms of beating them. Just 21-30 vs the line last week, now a woeful .423 for the year, yet #7 of 50 computer polls in terms of absolute error, or how close our lines are to actual results. October 9 was yet another week where in games where we were within 2 points of the closing Vegas line, we failed, going 5-12.

Rankings vs Ratings

Don’t be confused and certainly don’t interchange, rankings and ratings. Rankings simply put a list in order based on one or more metrics. In our case we rank all teams from 1-130 based on a combination of how good they are (power ratings) and their strength of record rating.

Ratings on the other hand, assign numerical values to each item in our rankings list.

This is important because I don’t show the ratings. I can share for instance that Boston College is ranked 43rd in our power ratings, 48th in our strength of record ratings and 41st in our combined ratings. That said, their power rating per our system is 127.69 which sits them 43rd. Georgia is #1 at 154.02 meaning that on a neutral field, this week, BC would be a 26.33 point dog vs ..well the Dawgs.

The rating therefore is much more important than the ranking because it isn’t as linear. The rating difference between power rating #1 Georgia and #2 Ohio State is just under 6 points, 6 points lower get you just above #4 Cincinnati, another six and you are at #14 Texas A&M and another 6 all the way down to just above #34 LSU.

Why is Cincinnati So Low?

Everyone is seemingly high on Cincinnati. The Bearcats have the two wins over Notre Dame and Indiana and reside at #3 in the AP poll and #4 in the Coaches’ poll, yet we still have them at 8…how come?

Two main factors.

1) Cincinnati has only played five games where most others have played six. Since the CFP committee evaluates all games, including conference championships, our formula is additive. The Cats therefore will gain ground as others take their bye week.

2) And that leads directly into the second factor, strength of schedule. We use this to figure out strength of record and despite those two Power Five wins, Cincinnati’s strength of schedule is still only 88th. This sits right where many other computer systems have the Bearcats schedule and is not likely to take a major step forward as the season progresses. Cincinnati’s final seven games are against UCF (56), Navy (104), Tulane (86), Tulsa (80), South Florida (107), SMU (49) and East Carolina (79). Granted the Mustangs are ranked in the human polls, but they haven’t cracked the top 25 in most of the computer polls and that is only possible bump that UC can get.

BC vs NC State

The Eagles at 41 in the country in the combined ranking and #7 in the ACC host NC State (32nd overall and 3rd in the ACC). At the time of this writing, Vegas has the Pack as a 3 point favorite. The Book also likes NC State, although the line is essentially a toss-up at 0.3

To date, we’ve gone 2-2 picking BC games against the number....so to be clear, we've got the Eagles his week.

Enjoy the games and Go Eagles!

The Legend:

Power – Book power rank, SOR – Book Strength of Record rank, Sagarin – Jeff Sagarin computer poll ranking, Massey – Massey Composite rankings, ESPN FPI – ESPN Football Power Index rankings, AP – Associated Press writers rankings, Coaches – ESPN Coaches rankings, CFP – College Football Playoff rankings, change from last week – change from last week’s Book rankings

RANK TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 GEORGIA 6 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
2 MICHIGAN 6 0 6 3 6 3 5 8 7 1
3 IOWA 6 0 7 2 5 2 13 2 2 1
4 ALABAMA 5 1 3 14 2 6 2 5 5 (2)
5 OKLAHOMA 6 0 5 5 4 7 4 4 3 1
6 OHIO ST 5 1 2 16 3 5 3 6 6 1
7 PENN ST 5 1 8 12 7 8 12 7 8 (2)
8 CINCINNATI 5 0 4 17 8 4 10 3 4 2
9 MICHIGAN ST 6 0 28 4 26 9 14 10 9 2
10 KENTUCKY 6 0 30 6 21 12 34 11 11 4
11 NOTRE DAME 5 1 16 10 10 10 17 14 13 2
12 COASTAL CAROLINA 6 0 19 13 35 23 24 15 15 6
13 OKLAHOMA ST 5 0 29 11 14 11 36 12 12 (5)
14 WAKE FOREST 6 0 42 7 22 15 35 16 16 1
15 TEXAS 4 2 9 25 13 14 9 25 (6)
16 ARIZONA ST 5 1 15 18 19 18 25 18 22 5
17 SMU 6 0 49 8 34 26 37 23 23 (1)
18 FLORIDA 4 2 12 28 9 13 6 20 17 6
19 TEXAS A&M 4 2 14 26 17 25 19 21 18 17
20 MISSISSIPPI 4 1 13 27 18 16 16 13 14 6
21 BAYLOR 5 1 24 21 25 19 26 12
22 ARKANSAS 4 2 23 23 23 17 18 17 19 (5)
23 BYU 5 1 54 15 37 22 48 19 20 (11)
24 OREGON 4 1 20 32 16 20 15 9 10 (5)
25 LIBERTY 5 1 44 20 32 29 44 15
26 IOWA ST 3 2 10 56 12 31 8 (3)
27 AUBURN 4 2 18 45 20 27 20 (7)
28 UTSA 6 0 77 9 72 39 65 6
29 PITTSBURGH 4 1 25 42 15 21 11 (4)
30 UCLA 4 2 36 29 39 37 38 13
31 HOUSTON 5 1 48 22 53 43 43 16
32 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 32 31 28 28 21 22 21 (10)
33 CLEMSON 3 2 11 61 11 24 7 25 (5)
34 APPALACHIAN ST 4 1 39 37 40 36 29 (5)
35 SAN DIEGO ST 5 0 66 19 55 33 62 24 24 11
36 TENNESSEE 4 2 37 47 27 32 23 22
37 VIRGINIA 4 2 47 34 54 46 42 17
38 NORTH CAROLINA 3 3 17 65 46 60 31 (11)
39 AIR FORCE 5 1 65 24 44 34 77 14
40 MISSISSIPPI ST 3 2 35 52 41 44 27 (3)
41 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 1 43 48 42 42 40 (2)
42 UTAH 3 2 31 57 30 40 33 23
43 TCU 3 2 27 64 29 41 28 21
44 USC 3 3 26 66 50 65 41 (12)
45 OREGON ST 4 2 55 41 48 54 53 (15)
46 KANSAS ST 3 2 45 49 31 30 51 (2)
47 NEBRASKA 3 4 21 73 36 47 22 2
48 UAB 4 2 60 39 71 56 64 14
49 TEXAS TECH 4 2 62 33 68 63 57 (18)
50 NEVADA 4 1 59 44 52 45 69 10
51 LOUISIANA 4 1 63 38 74 55 68 (9)
52 MINNESOTA 3 2 41 55 49 59 55 (4)
53 LSU 3 3 34 69 38 52 39 (15)
54 BOISE ST 3 3 40 67 33 35 46 18
55 STANFORD 3 3 53 54 45 51 59 (10)
56 WESTERN MICHIGAN 4 2 71 40 67 58 79 (21)
57 WISCONSIN 2 3 22 87 24 38 30 17
58 VIRGINIA TECH 3 2 46 62 51 57 45 (7)
59 MARYLAND 4 2 72 43 65 50 71 (18)
60 LOUISVILLE 3 3 50 68 58 62 56 (8)
61 PURDUE 3 2 57 58 64 61 52 (6)
62 WYOMING 4 1 85 36 59 49 80 (12)
63 GEORGIA TECH 3 3 58 60 60 70 49 13
64 FRESNO ST 4 2 67 50 73 68 58 (8)
65 ARMY 4 1 90 35 77 53 70 (8)
66 WASHINGTON 2 3 33 92 43 74 47 (5)
67 UCF 3 2 56 75 62 69 61 11
68 RUTGERS 3 3 68 63 57 48 60 (9)
69 MIAMI FL 2 3 38 95 56 66 32 (1)
70 WASHINGTON ST 3 3 64 71 69 82 81 13
71 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 4 2 100 46 79 67 97 9
72 INDIANA 2 3 52 91 47 64 50 (1)
73 MISSOURI 3 3 69 77 76 78 75 9
74 SOUTH CAROLINA 3 3 78 70 70 71 67 (11)
75 EASTERN MICHIGAN 4 2 98 53 90 79 88 10
76 SYRACUSE 3 3 76 76 78 76 73 (3)
77 TOLEDO 3 3 70 84 63 77 63 (11)
78 MEMPHIS 3 3 75 80 87 85 74 (11)
79 BALL ST 3 3 81 72 66 73 90 13
80 EAST CAROLINA 3 3 79 79 89 86 93 (5)
81 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 3 3 82 78 86 81 72 (12)
82 WEST VIRGINIA 2 4 51 105 61 75 54 (12)
83 FLORIDA ST 2 4 61 96 75 80 66 22
84 UTAH ST 3 2 103 59 82 72 98 (5)
85 CHARLOTTE 4 2 109 51 107 94 104 6
86 KENT ST 3 3 91 74 80 83 95 9
87 DUKE 3 3 88 81 93 92 85 (10)
88 UTEP 5 1 117 30 114 87 112 6
89 NORTHWESTERN 2 3 73 98 85 91 82 (3)
90 MARSHALL 3 3 87 89 83 88 78 3
91 COLORADO ST 2 3 83 93 81 84 94 10
92 TROY 3 3 89 90 102 101 91 5
93 HAWAII 3 3 101 82 101 96 103 (9)
94 TULSA 2 4 80 97 91 90 87 10
95 CENTRAL MICHIGAN 3 3 99 88 104 107 101 7
96 LOUISIANA TECH 2 3 94 94 88 89 83 (6)
97 SAN JOSE ST 3 3 105 85 100 103 106 (16)
98 GEORGIA ST 2 4 92 99 98 99 102 11
99 ILLINOIS 2 5 93 101 95 93 89 (12)
100 TEMPLE 3 3 111 86 111 97 114 (11)
101 CALIFORNIA 1 4 74 115 84 105 86 2
102 SOUTH ALABAMA 3 2 114 83 110 100 109 (14)
103 MIAMI OH 2 4 95 109 96 98 99 (5)
104 COLORADO 1 4 84 116 97 110 96 2
105 BUFFALO 2 4 96 111 92 102 84 (9)
106 GEORGIA SOUTHERN 2 4 102 108 109 115 107 (6)
107 MIDDLE TENNESSEE 2 4 106 106 103 104 100 (8)
108 NAVY 1 4 104 114 99 106 113 2
109 WESTERN KENTUCKY 1 4 97 118 94 95 76 (1)
110 TULANE 1 5 86 122 105 109 92 (3)
111 TEXAS ST 2 3 116 103 122 112 117 9
112 SOUTH FLORIDA 1 4 107 117 106 108 105 1
113 VANDERBILT 2 4 119 102 119 111 122 (2)
114 RICE 2 3 120 104 123 113 124 0
115 ARKANSAS ST 1 5 112 120 117 125 115 1
116 NORTH TEXAS 1 4 113 121 116 119 110 2
117 BOWLING GREEN 2 4 125 110 120 117 123 (5)
118 NEW MEXICO 2 4 124 112 121 116 125 (1)
119 KANSAS 1 4 123 113 115 121 120 2
120 LA MONROE 2 3 128 100 125 114 126 (5)
121 OHIO 1 5 110 124 113 124 121 (2)
122 AKRON 2 4 126 107 124 123 128 5
123 ARIZONA 0 5 108 129 108 118 108 0
124 UNLV 0 5 115 126 112 122 111 1
125 SOUTHERN MISS 1 5 118 125 126 126 118 (3)
126 OLD DOMINION 1 5 122 123 118 120 116 0
127 FLORIDA INTL 1 5 121 127 127 128 119 (3)
128 MASSACHUSETTS 1 5 129 119 128 127 127 1
129 NEW MEXICO ST 1 6 127 128 129 129 129 (1)
130 CONNECTICUT 0 7 130 130 130 130 130 0
ACC TEAM WON LOST POWER SOR SAGARIN MASSEY ESPN
FPI
AP COACHES CHANGE FROM
LAST WK
1 WAKE FOREST 6 0 42 7 22 15 35 16 16 0
2 PITTSBURGH 4 1 25 42 15 21 11 1
3 NORTH CAROLINA ST 4 1 32 31 28 28 21 22 21 (1)
4 CLEMSON 3 2 11 61 11 24 7 25 1
5 VIRGINIA 4 2 47 34 54 46 42 4
6 NORTH CAROLINA 3 3 17 65 46 60 31 (2)
7 BOSTON COLLEGE 4 1 43 48 42 42 40 (1)
8 VIRGINIA TECH 3 2 46 62 51 57 45 (1)
9 LOUISVILLE 3 3 50 68 58 62 56 (1)
10 GEORGIA TECH 3 3 58 60 60 70 49 2
11 MIAMI FL 2 3 38 95 56 66 32 (1)
12 SYRACUSE 3 3 76 76 78 76 73 (1)
13 FLORIDA ST 2 4 61 96 75 80 66 1
14 DUKE 3 3 88 81 93 92 85 (1)
BC Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 0 0 1.000
Previous 4 0 1.000
Total 4 0 1.000
BC vs Spread Won Lost Pct
Week 0 0 0.000
Previous 2 2 0.500
Total 2 2 0.500
Vs The Vegas Spread Won Lost Pct.
Week 21 30 0.412
Previous 109 147 0.426
Total 130 177 0.42345
Straight Up Won Lost Pct
Week 37 14 0.725
Previous 187 79 0.703
Total 224 93 0.70662
Absolute Error Avg Games
Week 11.5824 51
Previous 13.3436 266
Total 13.0602 317
Prediction Tracker Rank # of Polls
Straight Up 27 50
vs Spread 49 50
Absolute Error 7 50
BC Opponents straight spread
UMass 1-0 1-0
Temple 1-0 0-1
Missouri 1-0 1-0
Clemson 1-0 0-1
NC State
Louisville
Syracuse
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
Florida State
Wake Forest
FAVORITE SPREAD UNDERDOG
Appalachian St 6.2 at Louisiana
at Memphis 9.0 Navy
Georgia Southern 2.4 at South Alabama
Marshall 3.9 at North Texas
Clemson 17.0 at Syracuse
at Oregon 17.5 California
San Diego St 7.6 at San Jose St
at Arkansas 2.6 Auburn
at Georgia 25.2 Kentucky
Florida 5.1 at LSU
Alabama 15.1 at Mississippi St
Texas A&M 15.2 at Missouri
at South Carolina 16.9 Vanderbilt
Mississippi 3.7 at Tennessee
Louisiana Tech 6.3 at UTEP
Western Kentucky 11.5 at Old Dominion
at UTSA 19.8 Rice
UAB 17.2 at Southern Miss
North Carolina St 0.3 at Boston College
at North Carolina 7.2 Miami FL
at Virginia 11.4 Duke
Pittsburgh 3.0 at Virginia Tech
Michigan St 3.3 at Indiana
at Iowa 17.4 Purdue
Nebraska 2.4 at Minnesota
at Northwestern 0.1 Rutgers
at Wisconsin 20.3 Army
Liberty 29.6 at LA Monroe
at Baylor 10.4 BYU
Texas Tech 17.0 at Kansas
Iowa St 7.8 at Kansas St
at Oklahoma 12.9 TCU
at Texas 9.4 Oklahoma St
at Cincinnati 21.0 UCF
Tulsa 5.6 at South Florida
at Miami OH 18.8 Akron
Ball St 4.2 at Eastern Michigan
Toledo 4.5 at Central Michigan
at Northern Illinois 13.2 Bowling Green
at Buffalo 9.8 Ohio
at Western Michigan 6.6 Kent St
Troy 10.9 at Texas St
Stanford 1.8 at Washington St
at Washington 4.7 UCLA
at Colorado 12.2 Arizona
Arizona St 0.4 at Utah
at Boise St 9.8 Air Force
Colorado St 13.2 at New Mexico
Fresno St 1.0 at Wyoming
Utah St 3.4 at UNLV
at Nevada 12.3 Hawaii