With the bye-week now solidly behind us, I think we have all been given enough time to stomach the loss against Clemson only a mere few weeks ago. Granted, it took me an extra glass of bourbon to burn the pain away from that loss, but nevertheless like all gambling guilts I have suffered in the past the best advice is too simply move on. Yet, for this game, I actually managed to bank a few bills on this one given the ridiculous spread that Vegas was giving Clemson. It was a no-brainer to take BC and the 16 points and it was an easy lock from the jump.
Moving forward to this weekend’s matchup against the Wolfpack, this has the makings to be a classic clash between two ACC rivalries and Vegas looks to have set the lines accordingly. BC will have the home crowd and the atmosphere of a night-time contest of which will set the stage for a great game. The Wolfpack open as slight favorites going into the matchup at -2 which makes a lot of sense given the success NC State has had this year. To date, the Wolfpack have only dropped one game this season against a formidable opponent in Mississippi State. Other than that, they have had some rather notable wins against Louisiana Tech, a shutout performance against USF and of course the home overtime win against Clemson that served as the catalyst to the Tigers’ season demise.
When looking at the analytics and trying to decide how to best approach this game from a gambling perspective a few things stand out. Firstly, NC State has the 13th best running defense in the country only allowing 92 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. On a more granular level, they have only conceded one rushing touchdown and give up on average 3.36 yards per carry. This will definitely be put to the test with BC’s stellar offensive line, but it is no doubt that Grosel is going to have win through the air against State’s secondary. The Wolfpack come into the game giving up an average of 203 passing YPG with an average of 10.71 yards gained per completion. It will be interesting to see how Hafley structures his offense around this rather stout defense. After seeing Grosel last week, I anticipate more confidence in letting him sling the ball around more and getting Zay Flowers a little more involved in both the run game via jet sweeps and naturally through deep post-routes.
Offensively, Devin Leary has been a stellar quarterback for the Pack and he is only in his Sophomore campaign showing that there certainly bright days ahead for this program. Leary has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,283 yards and a TD to INT ratio of 12/2. Pretty good numbers to say the least. On the ground, Zonovon Knight has also had a respectable start to the season rushing for 462 yards and 3 TDs. However, it seems that a lot of this offensive’s power is really behind Leary and his connection with Emeka Emezie who has hauled in the majority of targets from Leary.
Overall, I do not see why BC cannot win this game. The only issue that gives me pause is that our offense stalls out forcing the Defense to go out there and to try to keep BC in it for a majority of the game. After the Defense’s performance against Clemson, I do have more confidence though when they are called upon to handle tough situations and are tasked to keep BC’s head above water when the offense is struggling to move the ball. Either way, I am going to lean BC in this one and recommend taking the points and even flirt with the MoneyLine. After a tough loss against Clemson two weeks prior, they’re now ready hit the back-nine of their season with a win against a quality opponent. And what better way to do that under the lights at Alumni?
Final Prediction: Boston College 24 vs. NC State 17 | BC +2 | Under 51.5