Pretty solid effort this week, I’d say. With two games left on the docket, it was exactly the kind of effort we needed.
Sitting at 5-5, BC will need one more win to assure a bowl game. Grant gave a nice breakdown of how we could get in at 5-7, but I prefer not to think about this really sad scenario.
So it’s Notre Dame (8-2) and Pitt (7-3). Both games are on the road, and will not be easy tasks. The latest projections do not look favorably and only one of the ESPN analysts predicts us to make a bowl game (Birmingham bowl v Tulane). I’ve seen a few others mostly not including us, but pitting BC against Texas.
Realistically, we should set aside Notre Dame as an option in getting that sixth win. Notre Dame has been cruising the past two weeks. After a one point nail-biter against Virginia Tech, they pummeled Duke and Navy. If they hadn’t slipped in the Virginia Tech maybe we could be a bit sneakier, but at this point, you have to believe that Notre Dame is focused on finishing the season strong. They play a pretty bad Stanford team to close out the season.
The ESPN FPI gives the Eagles a 7.1% chance of beating Notre Dame. Again, after blowing out Navy yesterday, you also have to predict that they are well-prepared to play against the run. If we want to try and replicate something, we need only look to the Hokies. Tech quarterback, not-Ryan Willis, was only 9/28 passing for 139 yards with a touchdown, while is lone interception was at the very end of the game in desperation. Ian Book, meanwhile, lit it up posting 29/53 for 336 yards and two touchdowns in addition to 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The key was that the Hokies nabbed two interceptions and recovered a fumble for a touchdown. It’s not like the Virginia Tech defense could stop Notre Dame, but the turnovers fell in their favor and they made it a game. They lost the game at with 35 seconds left, so while I’m not saying there’s a chance, I suppose there is a chance.
Pittsburgh has been grinding out games all season long. Still two weeks out, BC is currently given a 32.5%. Pitt takes on Virginia Tech this week in a pivotal matchup for the ACC Coastal. It’s a three, maybe four horse race with Virginia currently on top with a better conference record. Pitt, Virginia Tech, and Miami are all alive. If the Panthers were to lose this game, they’d be more or less out of the running, and could be ripe for the picking. Pitt snuck out an overtime win against UNC on Thursday night. The beat Georgia Tech by 10, lost to Miami at home by four the week before that, and barely held on against Duke and Syracuse. They played tough in a losing effort in an emotional final rivalry game against Penn State and handed UCF their first loss in quite some time earlier in the season. This feels like the game. They can throw the ball around, but they just appear to be so wildly inconsistent that you really don’t know what to expect. Throw away what you know about BC, these Coastal teams are jekyll and hyde. Pitt may have a decent record, but haven’t wins over Delaware and Ohio don’t impress me. We’ll properly look at this game next week, but despite your feelings towards BC football at the moment, don’t lock us in for 5-7. Remember, this could be the last game for many Eagles, namely AJ Dillon.
The fourth law of thermodynamics says we will win at least one of these games.