Last Week: 3-2
Overall YTD: 3-2
Lock of the Week YTD: 0-1
All-Time Lock of the Week: 19-7
Holy Cross at Boston College
As of the time this article was posted there was no line. Steve Addazio has covered 9-of-12 as a double-digit dog including a perfect 12-0 straight up in that time, so be careful going against BC.
UCLA at Oklahoma (-30)
UCLA is coming off a 26-17 loss at home to Cincinnati, who is kind of a middle-of-the-pack AAC team. That obviously wasn’t a great start to the Chip Kelly era. You often hear that you shouldn’t over react to one game, but I think this was more of a glimpse of what’s to come for the Bruins this year than just a week one stinker. UCLA’s starting quarterback Wilton Speights (yes the old Michigan QB) had to leave the game against Cinci with a back injury and is questionable for this game. Speights hasn’t been practicing all week, so I wouldn’t expect him to play, which means that true freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson will be forced to make his first start on the road against a pretty good defense.
On the flip side the Oklahoma offense picked up where they left off last year by hanging 63 points against Florida Atlantic last week. I would ride this Oklahoma offense until it doesn’t cover.
Mississippi State at Kansas State (+8.5)
This is pretty much a system play taking Bill Snyder as a dog. In Snyder’s last 36 games as an underdog in the regular season he is 27-9 ATS. On top of that, Snyder is 37-3 straight up in non-conference home games and only one of those losses was by more than seven points. There are too many trends to go against here.
Penn State at Pitt (+9)
I won by a point last year when I took Pitt in this match-up and I’m riding the Panthers again this year even though I’m getting 12 points less. Sounds a little crazy I know but here me out. The biggest reason I’m taking Pitt is that I believe Penn State is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Luckily for me I seem to be in the minority on this as Vegas is hanging numbers for Penn State games like we are still in the 2017 season. This Penn State team is nowhere near as good as last year’s version and we will see that by season’s end when the Nittany Lions are an 8 or 9 win team.
As for Pitt, this is the best defense that Pat Narduzzi has had during his time here and I think it helps them when a slugfest against Penn State. Throw in the home game for Pitt and this has the makings of a 3-7 point game in either direction.
Duke at Northwestern (-2.5)
Beware as I am going against the Wiseguys on this game by taking one of my favorite coaches to bet on in the country. I’m surprised that the Wildcats are under a three-point favorite in this because its basically saying Duke would be favored on a neutral field. The Fighting Fitzies’ are 9-5 the last three years ATS as a home favorite and have a 15-6 straight up home field record in the last three years.
Lock of the Week
Georgia at South Carolina (+10)
South Carolina was one of my binky teams last year and I finished the year with a winning record when taking them. This is going to be one of the biggest home games for USC in several years and the crowd at William Brice will be absolutely jacked for this one. Will Muschamp has been slowly rebuilding the talent in this program and even though the roster isn’t fully stacked yet he is getting results. Last year, South Carolina allowed only 20.7 ppg which was 5th best in the SEC. The Gamecocks also have just enough players on the offensive side of the ball to make things happen, led by All-American candidate WR Deebo Samuel.
Even though Georgia lost a ton of guys to the NFL last year the team is still talented, albeit inexperienced. This will be the first true road test for the young Bulldogs and they are big favorites despite the inexperience. I think some of the youngsters are in for a rude awakening.
I’m also calling for this as by underdog upset of the week with South Carolina a juice +330.
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