Last Week: 3-1-1
Overall YTD: 6-8-1
Lock of the Week YTD: 1-2 (20-8 All-time)
Underdog Upset of the Week: 1-1 (+35 Units)
Boston College at Purdue (+6.5)
It’s a great time to be a BC fan! The Eagles are ranked for the first time in ten years and the offense looks unstoppable.
Now time for me to be a little bit of Debbie Downer (Sorry). I would just caution BC fans to not overlook the 0-3 Purdue Boilermakers this weekend. I’m sure you’ve all heard the stat by now that Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. Those losses weren’t to cupcakes either. Purdue lost to Northwestern (who is a contender in the Big Ten West), Eastern Michigan (who is supposed to be one of those pesky decent MAC teams), and Mizzou (who has one of the best offenses in the country and possible #1 NFL pick Drew Lock) so this team has been tested early. I think the scariest part for me is that Purdue actually outgained all three opponents in yardage. BC wins this game but I think it’s much tighter than the Wake game.
TCU at Texas (+3)
In Tom Herman’s time as a head coach at Houston/Texas he is 10-1 ATS as an underdog. That stat alone would have me taking the Longhorns as a home dog. Also, I’m sticking to my guns that Texas is the best team in the Big 12 not named Oklahoma. We will roll with Texas as our Underdog Upset of the Week at +145.
Stanford (-1.5) at Oregon
Stanford has owned Oregon the last two years winning by a combined score of 101-34. I don’t think it is quite as much of a mismatch this year, but Stanford is still the better team. After sitting out last week Bryce Love is fresh and this smells like one of those “Heisman moment” games for him.
Arizona State at Washington (-17)
When I watched Washington play Auburn a few weeks ago I thought to myself “Washington is going to wax some of these crappy PAC12 teams/coaches at home.” Enter stage left Herm Edwards fresh off his team going down at San Diego State last week. Washington hangs at least 31 on ASU and holds them to 10 points.
Lock of the Week
Notre Dame (-7) at Wake Forest
I have to be honest, Wake did not impress me much against the Eagles last week. The Deacons have some tough nosed offensive players like Cade Carney and Matt Colburn, and there are some decent lunch pail guys on defense. Overall the skill level just wasn’t there and my takeaway was that BC was clearly at least two touchdowns better than Wake, which is probably pretty accurate when you consider the special teams miscues.
When I compare Notre Dame to BC I see two similar teams. I admit that Brandon Wimbush’s play of late concerns me a little, but he does usually excel against defenses like Wake that aren’t the most athletic. The ND defense rises to the occasion in this one and leads the ‘Irish to a 10-14 point win.