Last Week: 0-5
Overall YTD: 3-5
Lock of the Week YTD: 0-2
All-Time Lock of the Week: 19-8
A humbling week last week for sure. But I’m up off of the map and ready to bounce back in week 3!
Boston College at Wake Forest (+7)
It seemed strange to me when BC opened as a 4.5 point favorite as I had this pegged as the Eagles favored by no more than a field goal. I decided to research how many times BC has been over a field goal favorite on the road in ACC play and the numbers weren’t pretty. Since joining the ACC, BC has been over a field goal favorite on the road against ACC foes (including ND) 11 times and are 2-9 ATS in those situations (7-4 straight up).
The talk of the hurricane and its impact on this game has gone down a bit as Florence’s path seems to be heading more south. Regardless, there will be a little bit of wind in this game that could have some impact on the kicking game. I see this game as a battle between two offensive lines that are going to chew up clock and wear down the defenses. In the end I like BC to win but not cover the line.
Oklahoma (-17) at Iowa State
Oklahoma is in a revenge spot from last year when ISU beat them at home. Did you know that the last 8 times that Oklahoma lost at home they are 8-0 both straight up and ATS when playing the revenge game on the road next? Sometime tells me they will be up for this game. The Sooners had some bad news that star running back Rodney Anderson will be out for the year, but I wouldn’t expect it to affect them much against an inferior opponent like ISU
Speaking of injuries, Iowa State might have an even bigger one in quarterback Kyle Kempt who has a leg injury. Backup Zeb Noland has seen limited game action in his career and would be thrown into the lion’s den if Kempt can’t go. You just get the feeling that Iowa State seems to be on tilt a bit after having its first game of the year cancelled and then losing a blood-bath game against in-state rival Iowa last week (13-3)
Missouri at Purdue (+7.5)
This game will be worth keeping an eye on because Purdue is BC’s next opponent. As a BC fan, you probably want to see the Boilermakers win this or they will enter the BC match-up in desperation mode at 0-3.
The reason I’m taking Purdue is that I think bettors are over reacting to how the Boilers have started the season. Purdue is 0-2 but could easily be 2-0 after some plays didn’t go its way in a four-point loss to Northwestern and a one-point loss against Eastern Michigan. Before the season, the look ahead line for this game was a pickem’, so I’ll grab the seven and a hook with a desperate home team.
Arizona State at San Diego State (+5.5)
Ahhhhhhh, the moment I’ve been waiting for! Herm Edwards rolls in off of a huge upset win over Michigan State and his team in the top 25. Think Herm is feeling good right about now? The Sun Devils were a sexy pick to beat Michigan State last week in the desert and those predictions came to fruition. It turns out a team from Michigan playing in 90-degree heat and playing a game with a start time of 10:45 EST isn’t a good mix.
I watched San Diego State take on Stanford in week one and was impressed with the Aztecs even though they eventually fell 31-10. SDSU was down six late in the third quarter before Stanford connected for an 80-yard touchdown pass and broke the game open. The Aztecs have some good athletes on defense and will be able to hang with ASU, especially at home.
Lock of the Week
FSU at Syracuse (+3.5)
If you took the school names off the uniforms and watched each of these teams you’d think they were evenly matched. Hell, you might even think ‘Cuse is the better team if you watched its explosive offense enough or watched more than a quarter of the FSU/Samford game. I don’t think FSU should be favored by 6.5-7 on a neutral field vs. the Orange which is what this line is telling you. I’m calling for the ‘Cuse (+135 ML) outright upset for my underdog upset of the week.